Projecting Kevin Hogan as a Big 10 QB

Submitted by alum96 on January 1st, 2015 at 11:37 AM

TL; DR - Kevn Hogan?  Yes please.

I have neither a cart nor a horse ... but do have some free time as I no longer have to do CC diaries, so I thought I'd talk some Kevin Hogan.  Yesterday a thread popped up on a potential transfer of Hogan who is Stanford's QB.  As a 5th year senior he would not have to sit out, and as a Harbaugh recruit the relationship is obvious, as is the need.  The gist of the article is David Shaw is so conservative and run oriented he makes Mike Debord's Michigan offenses look progressive.  And Hogan - a potential mid round NFL draft pick - is balking against that.

So I thought how Kevin Hogan would stack up in the Big 10 vs the Pac 12.   Now we should preface this analysis with the fact the Big 10 QB sitution is ludicrously bad.  It's awful, pathetic, sad, wimpy, crappy, stinky.  Gary Nova of Rutgers is statistically the 3rd best QB in the Big 10 - if you only watched him vs UM you'd believe that; if you watched him vs every other team you'd LOL but again, on paper, it's true.  With Hackenberg in a Devin Gardner state of PTSD in 2014, behind an OL that looked like Michigan 2013, and Devin being a shell of him former self there were basically 2 good QBs in the league - anyone from Barrett down to the 8th string waterboy at OSU, and Cook at MSU.


Which brings up an interesting comparison - Hogan and Cook are pretty similar statistically except in the completion % category.  But not year on year - as Hogan took a step back in 2014 while Cook took a step forward.  So without many good choices in the Big 10 to compare him to the best I can parallel him to in 2014 was Connor Cook of 2013.  While Hogan of 2013 was more like Cook of 2014 (again excluding completion %).  Hogan is also going to give you a bit more on the ground as he rushes for about 300 yards (net of sacks) a year.

  QBR Comp % Yds YPA TD INT Sack
2014 Hogan 66.7 65.9 2792 7.9 19 8 22
2013 Cook 68.9 58.7 2755 7.3 22 6 16
  QBR Comp % Yds YPA TD INT Sack
2013 Hogan 80.5 61 2630 8.9 20 10 14
2014 Cook 77.5 58.2 2900 9 22 6 10

Cook benefited from (sigh) excellent pass protection; better than Hogan's.  And he turns the ball over less.  But throws with less accuracy.  But they are in the same neighborhoods of each other.  You'd hope with the QB whisperer here, Hogan would return at least to his 2013 form.



Now let's look at how his stats compare in the Pac 12 vs the Big 10.  Again, the caveat here is the Big 10 is a graveyard of QBs whereas a 3000 yard passer who completes 63% of his passes in the Pac 12 just falls off a tree.

  2014 Pac 12 Big 10  
  Stats Rank Rank Behind
Pass Completions 232 9 2 Hackenberg
Pass Attempts 352 9 4 Hack, Siemian, Brown
Completion % 65.9 6 1  
Pass Yards 2792 9 5 Hack, Cook, Nova, Barrett
Yards / Attempt 7.9 4 4 Barrett, Cook, Nova
TD 19 9 5 Barrett, Cook, Nova, Armstrong
INT 8 T3 T9 Just about everyone not named Cook
Efficiency Rating 145.8 5 3 Barrett, Cook

Again let me reiterate the Big 10 QB situation is complete garbage (which is why Big 10 defenses look so damn awesome statistically).  The Pac 12 has guys 90% of non Pac 12 fans have never heard of such as Sefo Liufau of CO and Jared Goff of Cal who throw for 3000+ yards and 65%+ completion % and would immediately be the best QB (on paper) in the Big 10.  And I am not even discussing the video game #s that Washington State's QB puts up since Mike Leach doesnt know what a RB is.  So Hogan in comparison looks below average in their conference. 

But if we project Hogan to the Big 10 he'd essentially immediately be the 4th best QB behind any of the 19 guys who could start for Urban Meyer and thrive, Cook, and one assumes a Hackenberg who is playing for early entry status in 2015.  All those guys are projected 1st round draft picks.  Is he going to tear the league apart ala Drew Brees or (for you older folks) Chuck Long?  No.  But he'd be an experienced, efficient, known quantity who brings stability to the most unknown part of the team.  You plug this kind of QB in to 2014's OSU game and UM has a great chance to win even with the LOL coaching.

Other details - Hogan is from D.C. so a transfer to Michigan would bring him closer to his parents at least for a year, give him a chance to play in cold weather as he prepares for the NFL, and reuinites him with you know who.   His major is "Science, Tech, and Society" - that is broad enough that I am sure he could find a grad program that fits that Stanford does not offer.



January 1st, 2015 at 1:28 PM ^

I think bringing in a Pro style QB for Morris and Malzone to attach themselves to by the hip would be similar to rookies sitting behind someone in the Pros, it can't hurt. And let's not pretend he learned much from Gardner and his style.

I'd welcome one year of a 5th year QB who's faced a Pac12 style defense on a regular basis.

Mr. Yost

January 1st, 2015 at 11:54 AM ^

I repeat...what has Shane Morris done to just be handed the starting job?

Is recruiting Alex Malzone a slap in the face? I mean come on. This is football.

Get your Dan Hawkins rant on...this is DIVISION 1 FOOTBALL!


Get your big boy pants on.

It's not like Morris is a 2 year starter. Hell it's not like Morris has the career of HOGAN at Stanford thus far.

Morris may not even be the starter WITHOUT Hogan. Why is everyone so worried about hurting his feelings?

If Hogan comes to Michigan that doesn't mean he's the starter, not one bit. Go beat him out. Go win the job. Why are we coddling the backup quarterback so much around here? 

That Coker kid transferred to Alabama, Blake Sims waited FOUR years to get his shot. You know what he did? He went and won the damn job. He's better for it too.

We've got stop this entitlement nonsense.

End rant.


ND Sux

January 1st, 2015 at 1:01 PM ^

and we all agree the best person should play.  Mark my words though...Morris will be the starter, and a very good one, with Harbaugh as his mentor.  Everyone is judging Morris as if he had 1st team reps all year...he didn't.  Give the dude a chance, and under good coaching, I think everyone on this board is going to be pleased.  Love Malzone's attitude toward Michigan, but do not get why everyone thinks he'll come in and start. 

Mr. Yost

January 1st, 2015 at 4:44 PM ^

He'll have a fucking chance.

Come on man. Why can't he go win the job over Hogan and everyone else?

Blake Sims won it over the transfer that came in to lead Bama this year. Why can't Morris?

What are you talking about give him a you think if Hogan came to Michigan Morris just has to redshirt or something?

We have to be serious, this isn't pee wee where everyone gets a chance to play and mom passes out orange slices.

He'd have the same chance to be the start as every other scholarship QB on the team. Let's be serious.


January 1st, 2015 at 3:50 PM ^

This debate has been going on everyday for a week. Magnus usually chimes in with his stats for the current QB's on the roster

Somebody points out Morris was a one time 5 star and Hoke/Borges/Nuss were terrible coaches, so it is not morris fault.

Then somebody will chime in with what a quality guy Morris is and he deserves a chance.

Mr. Yost, summed up my feelings exactly.  It Is BIG BOY football.  Bring in as many quality guys as you can and may the best man win.  

Everybody hopes Morris succeeds.  But many, like myself, don't think it is likely


January 1st, 2015 at 11:50 AM ^

JH isn't worried about hurting someone's feelings. He wants to win. If bringing in Hogan gives us the best chance at victory, Harbs will do it. It'll also give him an opportunity to see how Morris and the other QBs respond. Will they pout and wither into obscurity or fight for the starting QB spot?


January 1st, 2015 at 11:57 AM ^

Sorry I just disagree.  Morris was offered and entitled to a free education and coaching - nothing else at Michigan.  Same with any other player we recruit.  He was not entitled to anything but a chance to compete.  Same with any other player we recruit.  This sense of entitlement is part of our problems.  A slap in the face?  The fact we didn't take a QB after him because we promised him (allegedly) no competition, is part of our problem.

People need to get used to a different ethos around here.  You want to know how Jim Harbaugh runs things?  In 4 years at Stanford he recruited 2 QBs in every class but 1.  So that's 7 QBs in 4 years.  The ones who don't cut it are going to transfer.  The ones who stay are going to be in intense competition.  This gives you more lottery tickets as a program to find a triple or home run, at the most important position in the sport. 


January 1st, 2015 at 12:21 PM ^

I hardly believe be was promised no competition given that Hoke basically had ongoing competition for positions during the season. Which begs the question: where has this sense of entitlement narrative come from?. Hoke preached nothing but competition.


January 1st, 2015 at 2:10 PM ^

Yep. I'd love to RS Morris too, if he doesn't win the job and  if Speight proves capable of being the backup. Then we have open competition for 2016 season. If Shane doesn't win it, he'll be able to do the 5th year transfer to another school for 2017 and Speight or Malzone or DeWeaver or Qb X will be the starter for 2016 and beyond. 


January 1st, 2015 at 12:42 PM ^

I think you buried the lede (or berried the lead, as I like to say) in this comment right here.

Qb is the most important position. It continually amazes me that no one besides the very elite programs like Oregon, Alabama, and FSU bother to recruit multiple players at the position.  Harbaugh's approach seems very wise and is an important observation about his potential not only for Hogan, the 2015 class, but his entire tenure at UM.

Even on this here blog, people (including Brian) have argued we need a running back in the class more than we need a second QB.  I couldn't disagree more.  I hope Harbaugh is with me.


January 1st, 2015 at 2:45 PM ^

To even question whether to take someone like Hogan is ludicrous. I have no idea if this is at all a possibility, but if ANY  grad transfer as good as Hogan wants to come to Michigan next year we should welcome him with wide open arms. 

The part of this thread that sheds even a scintilla of doubt on this is totally out of touch with reality.


January 1st, 2015 at 12:00 PM ^

Reason not to leave Stanford - Shaw runs a very conservative offense, Harbaugh doesn't run  one that is that much less conservative.  Comfort, weather, etc.

Reason to leave Stanford - Harbaugh.  Kap, Alex Smith, Luck.  He was recruited to Stanford to play for Harbaugh and never got the chance.  This gives him 1 full year of full QB tutoring under one of the best.  This guy basically has a 1 year audition to prepare for the NFL - he can theoretically do it anywhere and pick any QB coach.  Not only is Harbaugh one of the best he is the guy who went into his home 5-6 years ago and sat down with parents and persuaded him to move across the country to go to Stanford.



January 1st, 2015 at 11:59 AM ^

rumor that he's coming to Michigan? or just that he's transferring to one of any of the ~120 schools available? Or is it just a rumor that he's a little unhappy and someone took that and ran with it, speculating he'd leave? If the latter end of the spectrum, this is way premature.

He'd be an outstanding addition.

Mr. Yost

January 1st, 2015 at 11:53 AM ^

If the kid says he wants to leave...if you're Shaw, why WOULDN'T you suggest that he go to Michigan where the guy who gave you a shot is now coaching?

That would be a pretty nice thank you, since the kid presumably has said he wanted to leave.

Now there's nothing saying that he's said he's out...but if he does, if you're Shaw, why wouldn't you want him at Michigan?


January 1st, 2015 at 11:52 AM ^

So why would he leave Stanford for the big 10 if they are one of the worst passing leagues?

Stanford opened it up for Luck his last year, they will do the same for Hogan if he can handle it.


January 1st, 2015 at 11:52 AM ^

OP: just a quick shout out of appreciation for the excellent analysis and content you consistently provide.

I really appreciate the work you obviously put into your posts.


January 1st, 2015 at 11:53 AM ^

It would be nice to have a veteran around who has been coached by Jim before and can actually play quarterback. The change from a Country Club atmosphere might be a shock to the current players so having someone that's been around the block with some of the staff would be very beneficial IMO.


January 1st, 2015 at 11:55 AM ^

Originally recruited by Harbaugh to Stanford but never had the chance to play for him. Has a year of eligibility left as a Grad transfer but pure speculation if he has any intentions to actually do so.


January 1st, 2015 at 11:56 AM ^

Man, if Hogan transferred to Michigan, that would make Michigan a B1G title contender immediately. I wonder if Harbaugh would pursue him though--or if he'd feel like he was dicking over his old colleagues at Stanford.


January 1st, 2015 at 12:09 PM ^

I don't think he'd pursue him per se.  But Shaw and Harbaugh are not strangers - Shaw was  on Harbaugh's staff way back in the San Diego days.  If Hogan was looking to leave and made it clear I think those 2 would have a conversation as coaches.   That's different than Harbaugh on the phone trying to convince Hogan to leave, which I'd assume would not be something up his alley.