TL; DR - Kevn Hogan? Yes please.
I have neither a cart nor a horse ... but do have some free time as I no longer have to do CC diaries, so I thought I'd talk some Kevin Hogan. Yesterday a thread popped up on a potential transfer of Hogan who is Stanford's QB. As a 5th year senior he would not have to sit out, and as a Harbaugh recruit the relationship is obvious, as is the need. The gist of the article is David Shaw is so conservative and run oriented he makes Mike Debord's Michigan offenses look progressive. And Hogan - a potential mid round NFL draft pick - is balking against that.
So I thought how Kevin Hogan would stack up in the Big 10 vs the Pac 12. Now we should preface this analysis with the fact the Big 10 QB sitution is ludicrously bad. It's awful, pathetic, sad, wimpy, crappy, stinky. Gary Nova of Rutgers is statistically the 3rd best QB in the Big 10 - if you only watched him vs UM you'd believe that; if you watched him vs every other team you'd LOL but again, on paper, it's true. With Hackenberg in a Devin Gardner state of PTSD in 2014, behind an OL that looked like Michigan 2013, and Devin being a shell of him former self there were basically 2 good QBs in the league - anyone from Barrett down to the 8th string waterboy at OSU, and Cook at MSU.
Which brings up an interesting comparison - Hogan and Cook are pretty similar statistically except in the completion % category. But not year on year - as Hogan took a step back in 2014 while Cook took a step forward. So without many good choices in the Big 10 to compare him to the best I can parallel him to in 2014 was Connor Cook of 2013. While Hogan of 2013 was more like Cook of 2014 (again excluding completion %). Hogan is also going to give you a bit more on the ground as he rushes for about 300 yards (net of sacks) a year.
Cook benefited from (sigh) excellent pass protection; better than Hogan's. And he turns the ball over less. But throws with less accuracy. But they are in the same neighborhoods of each other. You'd hope with the QB whisperer here, Hogan would return at least to his 2013 form.
Now let's look at how his stats compare in the Pac 12 vs the Big 10. Again, the caveat here is the Big 10 is a graveyard of QBs whereas a 3000 yard passer who completes 63% of his passes in the Pac 12 just falls off a tree.
|2014||Pac 12||Big 10|
|Pass Attempts||352||9||4||Hack, Siemian, Brown|
|Pass Yards||2792||9||5||Hack, Cook, Nova, Barrett|
|Yards / Attempt||7.9||4||4||Barrett, Cook, Nova|
|TD||19||9||5||Barrett, Cook, Nova, Armstrong|
|INT||8||T3||T9||Just about everyone not named Cook|
|Efficiency Rating||145.8||5||3||Barrett, Cook|
Again let me reiterate the Big 10 QB situation is complete garbage (which is why Big 10 defenses look so damn awesome statistically). The Pac 12 has guys 90% of non Pac 12 fans have never heard of such as Sefo Liufau of CO and Jared Goff of Cal who throw for 3000+ yards and 65%+ completion % and would immediately be the best QB (on paper) in the Big 10. And I am not even discussing the video game #s that Washington State's QB puts up since Mike Leach doesnt know what a RB is. So Hogan in comparison looks below average in their conference.
But if we project Hogan to the Big 10 he'd essentially immediately be the 4th best QB behind any of the 19 guys who could start for Urban Meyer and thrive, Cook, and one assumes a Hackenberg who is playing for early entry status in 2015. All those guys are projected 1st round draft picks. Is he going to tear the league apart ala Drew Brees or (for you older folks) Chuck Long? No. But he'd be an experienced, efficient, known quantity who brings stability to the most unknown part of the team. You plug this kind of QB in to 2014's OSU game and UM has a great chance to win even with the LOL coaching.
Other details - Hogan is from D.C. so a transfer to Michigan would bring him closer to his parents at least for a year, give him a chance to play in cold weather as he prepares for the NFL, and reuinites him with you know who. His major is "Science, Tech, and Society" - that is broad enough that I am sure he could find a grad program that fits that Stanford does not offer.