Points scored in the 4th quarter of big games
If you follow the Low Hanging Fruit Analysis (or if you, you know, watched the game) you know Michigan went Punt, FG, Fumble, Downs, Interception to finish the game Saturday. That last two drives were with 5 minutes and 1 minute remaining, respectively. We scored 3 points in the 4th quarter. It got me to thinking about previous games where we were within striking distance in a big game but failed to capitalize in "the Championship Rounds".
Chart?
No. No chart. But here's some nifty text on 23 of the biggest* games from 2015 - present.
*biggest = rivalry game/on the road vs a ranked opponent/arbitrary bowl games
2015
Opponent Score after Q3 Q4 points Final score
at Utah U17 M10 7 L 24-17
MSU M20 S14 3 L 27-23
OSU O28 M10 3 L 42-13
2016
at MSU M27 S10 5 W 32-23
at Iowa I11 M10 3 L 14-13
at OSU M17 O14 0 L 30-27
Florida St F20 M15 17 L 33-32
2017
MSU S14 M10 0 L 14-10
at PSU P28 M13 0 L 42-13
at Wisc W21 M10 0 L 24-10
OSU O21 M20 0 L 31-20
So Caro M19 SC16 0 L 26-19
2018
at ND N24 M10 7 L 24-17
at MSU M14 S7 7 W 21-7
at OSU O41 M19 20 lol L 62-39
2019
at Wisc W35 M8 6 L 35-14
at PSU P21 M14 7 L 28-21
MSU M27 S10 17 W 44-10
OSU 042 M19 8 L 56-27
2020
MSU S20 M17 7 L 27-24
at IU I31 M14 7 L 38-21
at Wisc W31 M11 0 L 49-11
2021
at MSU M30 S22 3 L 37-33
Bold = win (3). Italics = Lead going into the 4th quarter (7)
Any theories on why the tough sledding in the 4th quarter?
It's not like Michigan is constantly trying to bleed the clock to protect a lead.
A friend theorizes that it's Jim's NFL mentality where you're extra cautious against turnovers so you play it closer to the vest to get any kind of lead then lean on your defense to preserve victory, knowing a 9-7 record is usually gets you into the playoffs.
Whatever your thoughts, the fact remains that Michigan has scored double digits in the 4th quarter of these 23 games just 3 times.
Too soon?
Don't care?
Go Blue!
November 1st, 2021 at 4:08 PM ^
Any theories on why the tough sledding in the 4th quarter?
It's not like Michigan is constantly trying to bleed the clock to protect a lead.
One answer to your question is that Michigan under Harbaugh has never been able to run a 2min offense. It's not more complicated than that. Dating all the way back to Utah in 2015. We huddled...the entire game.... unless a timeout was called and we could call 2-3 plays in a row.
Harbaugh teams have always struggled playing from behind in the second half. It dates back quite awhile.
November 1st, 2021 at 4:17 PM ^
The team plays to slow all game. This year i think the 2 minute drill has been good yardage wise but the team cant punch it in for 6.
As for the 4th quarter scoring that goes on coaching, some coaches coach to win and some coach not to lose.
November 1st, 2021 at 4:25 PM ^
I agree that there is improvement this year over years past with regards to our 2min offense but it's still extremely sloppy. It's no where near what it was under Carr and it's miles behind the best teams in college football today.
November 1st, 2021 at 4:08 PM ^
This is stupid. Ofcourse they have trouble scoring against teams they eventually lose to. How is the 4th qrt scoring in games they win?
November 1st, 2021 at 6:50 PM ^
"We didn't score points in the 4th quarter because we lost".
And you said my post was stupid?
November 1st, 2021 at 11:56 PM ^
You don't understand. It's a valid critique because OP is largely falling victim to selection bias. The chosen games are "rivalry games" (where's ND?) and road games against good opponents, i.e. it's a set of games which we already know Harbaugh has struggled with and thus is heavily biased toward losses. What does Harbaugh's 4th quarter scoring look like in *all* the games he has lost at both Michigan and Stanford? Is it much different than his average in these games? I would guess not. How do we know whether Harbaugh loses because he struggles to score in the 4th quarter, or whether struggling in the 4th quarter is just a general characteristic of games in which Harbaugh loses? In fact, by my count there are only 3 Harbaugh losses not included in this list: 2020 against PSU (7 4th Q pts), 2019 vs Alabama (0 4th Q pts), and 2018 vs. Florida (5 4th Q pts). So, yeah, Harbaugh not scoring in the 4th quarter is associated with Harbaugh losing, but I don't think OP has a very convincing argument when claiming that Harbaugh has a special coaching philosophy that predisposes him to not scoring in the 4th quarter. You could similarly look at the 4th quarter scoring of any other coach's losses and I would bet it would be lower than their average 4th quarter scoring across all games.
This always comes up in dumb color commentary comments. Like hypothetically let's say Michigan has two RBs close to 100 yards each-- the announcers sometimes say stuff like "Harbaugh is 7-0 when his top two backs have over 100 yards!" Uh, yeah, no shit. You're going to win most of the games you dominate on the ground, and having two backs over 100 yards suggests you're dominating on the ground. Again it's just selection bias, much like the famous Abraham Wald WW2 airplane problem.
November 1st, 2021 at 9:32 PM ^
And why isn't 2019 ND on the list?
November 1st, 2021 at 4:14 PM ^
Thanks for looking at the past games. Those are some shit performances. Since thoughts have no need to be right....
Harbaugh coaches tight. He feeds that tension to his teams. He calls games conservatively and other coaches take more risks. This results in undue pressure on the defense and the team is not offensively prepared to move the ball quickly and score easily.
I had huge hopes for Harbaugh and was convinced he was the answer. He has shown over and over that he is not.
November 1st, 2021 at 4:51 PM ^
I don't agree with everything in your post, but I think there might be something to your point around Harbaugh coaching tight, which leads to his teams playing tense in moments that call for bold, aggressive play calling and execution.
Typically the type of team identity Harbaugh wants offensively is physical at the point of attack, emphasizing ball security and offensive efficiency. That philosophy can win you a fair amount of football games, but is directly at odds with a more wide open, spread attack that a team like OSU has mastered and MSU is developing under Tucker. This unfortunately becomes problematic for Michigan when the offense needs to "lay everything on the line" and press the issue to score points because it is really not the identity of a Harbaugh team, so it feels somewhat unnatural for the players and that visually manifests itself as "tense" to the viewer. For teams like OSU now, and where it looks like MSU is trying to go, it looks more natural for them because that approach aligns with what their offensive identity has always proclaimed to be.
I do think Michigan has improved their performance this season when the offense looks to open it up a bit compared to other seasons, but they're still not all the way there yet and that cost them unfortunately on Saturday when paired with a bogus whistle and other unforced errors that the players made. Perhaps they will develop the balance and grow comfortable when in situations where it's time for the offense to "dial it up" - again, I have seen marked improvement in that area this season. But it does seem like when it's time for the offense to hit some explosive plays in big moments, they fail to meet the moment. That could be a possible explanation for why that is the case.
November 1st, 2021 at 5:48 PM ^
I think we see Harbaugh's risk aversion in both the playcalling and the QB play. We play super tight on offense and the QBs play super turnover averse as well. I'm in favor of avoiding turnovers obviously, but it feels like we're conservative to the point of Lloydballing it. Being overly afraid of failure will lead to failure
November 1st, 2021 at 7:04 PM ^
He is traditionally conservative, but they did take that shot downfield on 3rd and 3 (that people are now bitching about obviously) in the 4th qtr. Connect on that and game over.
November 1st, 2021 at 4:19 PM ^
Most of those are one score or blowout games. Key word is most. My guess is either the opposing team strangled our offense or we tried to pull a MSU B1G Championship game and have a 9 minute drive ending with a score to run out the clock or not leave enough time for the other team to score.
Some of those were also low scoring games which point to a defensive game where neither team had a lot of luck moving the ball.
November 1st, 2021 at 4:20 PM ^
I think a few should be added, using the same bold/italics scheme of the OP (with justifications in parentheses):
18 @Wisconsin in 2021 (ranked team)
12 @Nebraska in 2021 (road game under the lights)
21 against Notre Dame in 2019 (top ten opponent)
17 against Wisconsin in 2018 (ranked team)
14 against Penn State in 2018 (ranked team)
14 against Penn State in 2016 (eventual Big Ten Champ)
7 against Wisconsin in 2016 (top ten opponent)
7 against NW in 2015 (ranked team)
November 1st, 2021 at 4:33 PM ^
I excluded those games because the issue has been beating ranked teams on the road, and beating our rivals.
It's splitting hairs, but Wisconsin and Nebraska weren't ranked and the rest were home games.
November 1st, 2021 at 4:38 PM ^
Ahh I see. Yea Wiscy and Nebraska weren't ranked. I guess the ND rivalry is kinda dead now, hence the 2019 game being left off? I feel like games against top ten opponents still qualify as "big games" and would suggest adding those.
November 1st, 2021 at 4:45 PM ^
So you included the bowl game against South Carolina, but not the bowl game against 19th ranked Florida (outscored them 10-0 in fourth game, also won) because why?
November 1st, 2021 at 4:51 PM ^
So Penn State isn't a rival and therefore our home game wins against them don't count? But when we play them on the road, they are a ranked opponent, so those games count? I mean, why not just say: I am going to contort the record and throw out a lot of text to justify my narrative.
November 1st, 2021 at 4:52 PM ^
[The rare double post. Count it twice!]
November 1st, 2021 at 6:11 PM ^
A better answer, honestly, would be "because those games weaken my premise" because this justification doesn't even apply here (Iowa wasn't ranked in 2016, for example).
November 1st, 2021 at 4:36 PM ^
But if you include these wins then what’s the narrative…
Edit: OP responded with justification and I will now take my lumps.
November 1st, 2021 at 4:21 PM ^
I was going to mich l mock this, but good post. Sad. But good
November 1st, 2021 at 4:28 PM ^
Very good analysis. The numbers do not lie. Critics will say Harbaugh plays not to lose. Very rarely doe he ever open up the play book in the 4th quarter unless they are behind and need to get creative, I repeat-very rarely.
This is Jim's culture and it does affect the play calling and players and it is not a recipe for success.
November 1st, 2021 at 4:34 PM ^
Almost all of those the Q4 pts are in line with what they had Q1-Q3 except for 2017. Basically we lost a bunch of games where we had low point outputs and that included Q4.
November 1st, 2021 at 4:35 PM ^
I think this captures some issues but also has a very skewed perspective on what a "big game" is. Like, I don't see the game against UW this year (a ranked road opponent), ND at home in 2019, and PSU in 2018, all wins against top 15 teams.
And outside of 2017 the story was UM and their opponents typically held serve, which isn't great but also isn't atypical; teams leading after 3 quarters tend to win games.
November 1st, 2021 at 4:36 PM ^
Same movie...same ending.
November 1st, 2021 at 4:41 PM ^
Bo had this same problem. Go back and look at Bo in the 4th quarter of big games. He was terrible. His ridiculously bad record in Bowl Games was no accident.
He ruled the 3rd quarter, but anytime he had a small lead in the 4th quarter he would clutch up, play things super conservative, and depend on his defense to win the game. Which is why he blew so many big games.
For better or worse, Carr came into so many 4th quarters with Michigan behind in big games that he would just open up the offense, and our superior talent, especially at QB and WR, would dominate. Thus all of the big game 4th quarter comebacks. Obviously that was different in 1997, but 1997 was the best defense Michigan has probably had in the modern era.
November 1st, 2021 at 4:47 PM ^
Bo's teams also won shares of 10 big ten titles his first 14 years including 3 outright. He had a 5 year stretch of 1 loss/tied seasons...all but one of those to Ohio State. As much as I find myself defending Harbaugh, he doesn't compare to Bo.
November 1st, 2021 at 4:58 PM ^
Comparing across ages have a slight problem, rules change. Since Carr left, the B1G realigned and now one has to get out of their division first with an unblemished season to win the conference. Tie-ing in the division doesn't get you to Indy, not automatically.
The other aspect is the quality of other teams that Michigan faces now are vastly different compared to the "no-limits on scholarship" era.
So of course, he won't compare to Bo. Almost impossible to do so.
November 1st, 2021 at 5:39 PM ^
JamieH, I think you're slightly off on Carr. None other than MGoBlog has covered this topic:
https://mgoblog.com/content/keep-it-close-and-lose-fourth-quarter
November 1st, 2021 at 5:24 PM ^
who the hell is negging this post? It's includes great stats and presented easily to understand. It also puts forth an important question that needs to be answered for UM to take the next step.
Great post.
Also, fuck you for making my heart sad.
November 1st, 2021 at 6:15 PM ^
We're negging it because the OP blatantly cherry-picked negative stats to create a narrative.
Typical Michigan fan reaction to create negativity then bask in it. No thanks.
November 1st, 2021 at 7:51 PM ^
It's a shame people are negging you. +1 from me. Good job on the research.
November 1st, 2021 at 8:15 PM ^
Cherry picked research. It’s a bad post and he should feel bad.
November 1st, 2021 at 10:12 PM ^
Seems to me the OP was clear on methodology... games that "count". Not 63-3 versus Hawaii for example.
rivalry game/on the road vs a ranked opponent/arbitrary bowl games
Given the massive shitting the bed versus FSU and the 'Cocks, I think the "arbitrary" bowl games part is relevant to the thesis statement.
November 2nd, 2021 at 1:49 AM ^
Massive shitting the bed was not the criterion but "arbitrary bowl games" was. So it seems that the narrative would have a speed bump if the first Florida bowl game is included. Nothing wrong in that. All examples do not need to support a thesis.
November 1st, 2021 at 8:29 PM ^
Playing not to lose with the lead and playing too tight when it’s time for a comeback.