PAC12 Championship was an opportunity for USC to jump in seeding and avoid Georgia

Submitted by mgoblue_in_bay on December 4th, 2022 at 8:32 PM

Haven't seen a thread about it and unable to dig into all the threads to see if this was already discussed.

Pre championship games, there was some discussion about how the PAC12 Championship was all downside for USC - winning doesn't change anything, but losing would be punishing them for playing an extra game while OSU got to sit at home and do nothing.

But the PAC12 championship game was also an opportunity to improve their position - I'm a homer, but I think most teams would rather face Michigan in the playoff than Georgia.  And imagine if USC won, and all the other teams lost - isn't there a good chance USC would have jumped up to 1 (everyone has same numerical record, USC the only one with a Conference Championship), and then even gotten to face TCU (which I assume everyone thinks is easier than Georgia or Michigan).

Pretty unlikely yes, but the PAC12 championship game offered that opportunity to improve their seeding - maybe not worth the chance of losing and dropping out, but not worthless either.

Indy Pete - Go Blue

December 4th, 2022 at 8:44 PM ^

I understand, and this is certainly a good place to have those conversations. But, what you said here just didn’t feel like it changed what anyone was thinking / not to mention it just seems a little irrelevant. Sorry to be so sharp, but that’s just how it strikes me. I love your Michigan fan spirit, and am glad you are starting to be active. 

mgoblue_in_bay

December 4th, 2022 at 9:08 PM ^

I made a decision back when the Red Wings lost to the Penguins (coupled with the later Rich Rod years) that I let sports get me too down, and accept not being "too invested".

The social aspect is nearly entirely new to me (in the last couple years), but I wonder what the combination of losing + social is going to do me (someday, in the far future, hopefully).

Indy Pete - Go Blue

December 4th, 2022 at 9:11 PM ^

My advice regarding losing games: don’t look for solace or community on the blog. There are a lot of bitter trolls who actually hate Michigan and are looking to make genuine fans suffer after losses. There are also miserable people who find some sense of satisfaction in airing their emotional (and typically irrational) misery on the blog to cope. Their activity becomes the dominant presence on the blog after tough games. 

I just avoid the blog for at least 24 hours after a painful loss, complete avoidance. I would advise the same for social media, which I don’t do outside of this blog.  When sports stop being fun, I turn it off and invest in something more meaningful/worthwhile.  Once the negative emotions have worn off and you are willing to engage rationally, the blog is a good place to check back in.  Just be ready to fight for sanity if you are a person with a strong sense of justice.

Indy Pete - Go Blue

December 4th, 2022 at 8:40 PM ^

Ran into a random older couple waiting for a table at dinner. Guy wearing red under his coat noticed my Michigan shirt said he was hoping to meet us in the championship. He then revealed it was a Georgia sweatshirt. He said, ‘Michigan is the only team we are scared of’. I told him to make sure to take down the buckeyes again, and he confidently said ‘that won’t be a problem’.  The whole encounter was refreshingly pleasant. 

MJG

December 4th, 2022 at 8:38 PM ^

The best they would’ve done is jumped to #3 to face Michigan, with TCU #4. 
 

Edit: Misread. You assumed everyone else would lose, which was a long shot. 

jabberwock

December 4th, 2022 at 8:42 PM ^

no chance in hell they were going to be 1, even if Georgia lost.  Move up to 2?  Maybe.
Still more downside than upside for USC to play that game (not like they were given a choice)

I'mTheStig

December 4th, 2022 at 9:29 PM ^

Interesting - you think 12-1 USC doesn't jump 12-1 Georgia?  Why?

Are you fucking smoking crack?

SEC > PAC 12 -- so USC ain't overcoming SEC bias when everything else is equal.

UGA 49 OU 3.

Recency bias.  UGA defending champs, USC coming off of 4-8 season.  If you don't think this is a thing, then look at Clemson (who played like shit all season) jumping Michigan in the polls in week 6.

UGA was ranked in the top 5 all season.  USC not so much.

Power index, UGA #1 USC #15

SoS, UGA #21 USC #39

 

mgoblue_in_bay

December 4th, 2022 at 10:38 PM ^

I guess I thought "won their conference championship" was actually something the committee considered.

Taking last year as an example, iirc, Michigan jumped Georgia by winning the conference championship game while Georgia lost theirs, despite the same record.  Michigan shared some of the same downsides as USC this year (bad previous year record, but Covid year, plus not being ranked in top 5 most of the season iirc) - but most of those other things are probably not the same (as far as I can tell Michigan SoS was better or about the same as Georgia last year, for example)

I'mTheStig

December 4th, 2022 at 10:44 PM ^

I guess I thought "won their conference championship" was actually something the committee considered.

Clearly it's not that cut and dry.

ohio is in and didn't even win their division let alone conference.

KSU won their conference and isn't in either.

Are you seriously this obtuse? -- that's a sincere, genuine, question!

You'll get your chance when the playoff expands to 12 teams.

mgoblue_in_bay

December 4th, 2022 at 11:15 PM ^

Yes - I guess I don't think its as cut and dry as you (and others) do

  • 12-1 Georgia with no Conference Championship (losing to LSU)
  • 12-1 USC with Conference Championship (beating Utah)

Going by final CFP ranking (yes this would be slightly different, will try to adjust)

  • Best wins: Tennesee (6th), Utah (8th, would be lower in this scenario) - Georgia slight edge
  • 2nd best: Oregon (15th), Oregon State (14th) - Push
  • 3rd best: LSU (17th, would be better), UCLA (18th) - Georgia slight edge
  • 4th best: South Carolina (19th), Notre Dame (21st) - Push
  • 5th best: Miss State (22nd), ??Fresno State?? (unranked) - Georgia slight edge

Are those Georgia wins so much better that the Conference Championship can't offset, in some voters minds?

Vasav

December 4th, 2022 at 8:46 PM ^

Look at the end of the day the Pac12 is the 4th best league and got themselves to third base but nobody really stood out so they had to call in a pinch runner.

Ohio State is pinch running for the Pac12 in the playoff.

mgoblue_in_bay

December 4th, 2022 at 8:57 PM ^

I thought the same after watching some of the Purdue FFFF, but they somehow learned to tackle between those clips and the B10 championship game (not sarcasm, that really surprised me).

Other than Edward's multiple broken tackle TD run of course, but most of those didn't look as bad as the clips from FFFF either.

ST3

December 4th, 2022 at 8:48 PM ^

They dropped 6 spots by losing. That seems somewhat harsh, even considering they got blown out. That says to me that the Committee didn’t think that much of them to begin with and only had them at 4 to keep a non-division winning OSU out. When SC crapped the bed, that allowed the committee to rank SC properly.

MH20

December 4th, 2022 at 8:51 PM ^

I could see the extra motivation were the Pac-12 title game the last of the P5 title games. But since it's the first, you can't be thinking about hypothetical seeding scenarios. You just have to win -- hopefully big -- and then see what shakes out on Saturday.

I didn't see the game myself, but the box score and the anecdotes I've heard paint a picture of a team thinking they were hot shit and were rudely told they were not. 

SBayBlue

December 4th, 2022 at 8:53 PM ^

I actually agree with the OP. Interesting theoretical. They likely would have jumped TCU if they won, as it is a more recent win in a championship game and they would have won their conference.

Was thinking before their game that I didn't want to face them and Caleb Williams, would rather face TCU. After seeing the Pac 12 game and how they tackled, we would have run right through their defense. At least TCU can tackle.

mgoblue_in_bay

December 4th, 2022 at 9:01 PM ^

I would have much rather faced TCU than USC too - but it might be too many nightmares of (Juice Williams originally, but all of the ones after) fast mobile QBs tearing us up.

Decade+ later and it still gives me the willies.  I don't have nearly as bad memories of regular mobile QBs (Tebow comes to mind), which is what I think Duggan is?

UMForLife

December 4th, 2022 at 9:12 PM ^

I personally think championship games are to advance and not to lose the place you already have. That is bullshit. For example, if TCU had a loss and was 5 or 6, then they win the championship. If the fourth place team, let us say OSU, had a loss to UM but was not in championship game, them you compare TCU vs OSU after the championship game.

Unfortunately, that is not how things work. Committee just figures out who they think is a better team. They use some metrics but it is subjective. USC screwed themselves by playing in championship game. 

That is my opinion and I am sure many won't share that. 

Edit: I will also add that there are star gazers in the committee as well. If UM had a similar season as OSU, there will not be any push to put UM up there. OSU and SEC get special treatment. UM just has to win every time. That sucks but leaders overcome all odds. Fuck OSU.

mgoblue_in_bay

December 4th, 2022 at 9:20 PM ^

At least this would be a nice hard and explainable metric - that would be nice.

Imagine if the committee came out and said "for all P5 teams, no team with more losses will ever make it over a team with less losses" - there'd be a lot less room for arguing.  I'm looking at Wikipedia, and its looking like that has so far been the case anyways.