PAC12 Championship was an opportunity for USC to jump in seeding and avoid Georgia
Haven't seen a thread about it and unable to dig into all the threads to see if this was already discussed.
Pre championship games, there was some discussion about how the PAC12 Championship was all downside for USC - winning doesn't change anything, but losing would be punishing them for playing an extra game while OSU got to sit at home and do nothing.
But the PAC12 championship game was also an opportunity to improve their position - I'm a homer, but I think most teams would rather face Michigan in the playoff than Georgia. And imagine if USC won, and all the other teams lost - isn't there a good chance USC would have jumped up to 1 (everyone has same numerical record, USC the only one with a Conference Championship), and then even gotten to face TCU (which I assume everyone thinks is easier than Georgia or Michigan).
Pretty unlikely yes, but the PAC12 championship game offered that opportunity to improve their seeding - maybe not worth the chance of losing and dropping out, but not worthless either.
December 4th, 2022 at 8:35 PM ^
While this is true - it is not very revelatory or particularly interesting.
December 4th, 2022 at 8:38 PM ^
I enjoy the theoreticals and wondering if my thoughts are too out there.
If not then I'm curious to look at previous years and the championship vs idle arguments, but I don't recall any being as big as this year's (though I obviously had less interest in them given Michigan's positions in previous years)
December 4th, 2022 at 8:44 PM ^
I understand, and this is certainly a good place to have those conversations. But, what you said here just didn’t feel like it changed what anyone was thinking / not to mention it just seems a little irrelevant. Sorry to be so sharp, but that’s just how it strikes me. I love your Michigan fan spirit, and am glad you are starting to be active.
December 4th, 2022 at 8:55 PM ^
The honest feedback is appreciated!
I've been off a few weeks and start the new job next week so this is mostly me getting a little bored at home, and no longer having access to my previous work channel for such discussions :)
December 4th, 2022 at 8:59 PM ^
Congrats on the new job. Enjoy the rest while you can!
December 4th, 2022 at 9:04 PM ^
Congrats and best wishes on the new job! I have found contributing to the blog has enhanced my enjoyment of Michigan sports. And since I view sports fandom as an activity that should be pleasurable and not miserable, I am glad to have this outlet. There are a lot of neat people behind these electrons.
December 4th, 2022 at 9:08 PM ^
I made a decision back when the Red Wings lost to the Penguins (coupled with the later Rich Rod years) that I let sports get me too down, and accept not being "too invested".
The social aspect is nearly entirely new to me (in the last couple years), but I wonder what the combination of losing + social is going to do me (someday, in the far future, hopefully).
December 4th, 2022 at 9:11 PM ^
My advice regarding losing games: don’t look for solace or community on the blog. There are a lot of bitter trolls who actually hate Michigan and are looking to make genuine fans suffer after losses. There are also miserable people who find some sense of satisfaction in airing their emotional (and typically irrational) misery on the blog to cope. Their activity becomes the dominant presence on the blog after tough games.
I just avoid the blog for at least 24 hours after a painful loss, complete avoidance. I would advise the same for social media, which I don’t do outside of this blog. When sports stop being fun, I turn it off and invest in something more meaningful/worthwhile. Once the negative emotions have worn off and you are willing to engage rationally, the blog is a good place to check back in. Just be ready to fight for sanity if you are a person with a strong sense of justice.
December 4th, 2022 at 9:50 PM ^
Worthy question…
If SC had won, would they have jumped TCU and would they have faced UM in the Fiesta Bowl?
I think the answer to that is yes.
December 4th, 2022 at 8:38 PM ^
Avoid Georgia get Michigan, two sides of the same coin.
December 4th, 2022 at 8:40 PM ^
Ran into a random older couple waiting for a table at dinner. Guy wearing red under his coat noticed my Michigan shirt said he was hoping to meet us in the championship. He then revealed it was a Georgia sweatshirt. He said, ‘Michigan is the only team we are scared of’. I told him to make sure to take down the buckeyes again, and he confidently said ‘that won’t be a problem’. The whole encounter was refreshingly pleasant.
December 4th, 2022 at 8:42 PM ^
Good shit Jed gif
December 4th, 2022 at 8:38 PM ^
The best they would’ve done is jumped to #3 to face Michigan, with TCU #4.
Edit: Misread. You assumed everyone else would lose, which was a long shot.
December 4th, 2022 at 8:39 PM ^
With the known outcomes yes, but prior to the games they coulda jumped all the way to 1 I think
December 4th, 2022 at 8:39 PM ^
the pac12 championship was also an opportunity for them to make the playoff. But they lost, so they did not.
December 4th, 2022 at 8:39 PM ^
The game gave them the opportunity to be pac 12 champs. If that wasn’t motivation enough then they shouldn’t play football.
December 4th, 2022 at 10:36 PM ^
Unfortunately (for them), their defense did not.
December 4th, 2022 at 8:42 PM ^
no chance in hell they were going to be 1, even if Georgia lost. Move up to 2? Maybe.
Still more downside than upside for USC to play that game (not like they were given a choice)
December 4th, 2022 at 8:47 PM ^
Interesting - you think 12-1 USC doesn't jump 12-1 Georgia? Why?
Georgia has best win, but USC seems to have far better 3rd and 4th wins (if Oregon counts as a tied 2nd best win)
December 4th, 2022 at 9:29 PM ^
Interesting - you think 12-1 USC doesn't jump 12-1 Georgia? Why?
Are you fucking smoking crack?
SEC > PAC 12 -- so USC ain't overcoming SEC bias when everything else is equal.
UGA 49 OU 3.
Recency bias. UGA defending champs, USC coming off of 4-8 season. If you don't think this is a thing, then look at Clemson (who played like shit all season) jumping Michigan in the polls in week 6.
UGA was ranked in the top 5 all season. USC not so much.
Power index, UGA #1 USC #15
SoS, UGA #21 USC #39
December 4th, 2022 at 10:38 PM ^
I guess I thought "won their conference championship" was actually something the committee considered.
Taking last year as an example, iirc, Michigan jumped Georgia by winning the conference championship game while Georgia lost theirs, despite the same record. Michigan shared some of the same downsides as USC this year (bad previous year record, but Covid year, plus not being ranked in top 5 most of the season iirc) - but most of those other things are probably not the same (as far as I can tell Michigan SoS was better or about the same as Georgia last year, for example)
December 4th, 2022 at 10:44 PM ^
I guess I thought "won their conference championship" was actually something the committee considered.
Clearly it's not that cut and dry.
ohio is in and didn't even win their division let alone conference.
KSU won their conference and isn't in either.
Are you seriously this obtuse? -- that's a sincere, genuine, question!
You'll get your chance when the playoff expands to 12 teams.
December 4th, 2022 at 11:15 PM ^
Yes - I guess I don't think its as cut and dry as you (and others) do
- 12-1 Georgia with no Conference Championship (losing to LSU)
- 12-1 USC with Conference Championship (beating Utah)
Going by final CFP ranking (yes this would be slightly different, will try to adjust)
- Best wins: Tennesee (6th), Utah (8th, would be lower in this scenario) - Georgia slight edge
- 2nd best: Oregon (15th), Oregon State (14th) - Push
- 3rd best: LSU (17th, would be better), UCLA (18th) - Georgia slight edge
- 4th best: South Carolina (19th), Notre Dame (21st) - Push
- 5th best: Miss State (22nd), ??Fresno State?? (unranked) - Georgia slight edge
Are those Georgia wins so much better that the Conference Championship can't offset, in some voters minds?
December 4th, 2022 at 10:21 PM ^
Basically what Stig said. Although i think it's more likely you mistook the gummy edibles rather than went grasping for the crack pipe.
December 4th, 2022 at 8:43 PM ^
Great post
December 4th, 2022 at 8:44 PM ^
They still managed to avoid Georgia by losing.
December 4th, 2022 at 9:51 PM ^
And they are playing Tulane. I get they are pretty Dec this year, but my God. Playoffs to Tulane? Lmao. TULANE
December 4th, 2022 at 8:46 PM ^
Look at the end of the day the Pac12 is the 4th best league and got themselves to third base but nobody really stood out so they had to call in a pinch runner.
Ohio State is pinch running for the Pac12 in the playoff.
December 4th, 2022 at 10:25 PM ^
USC was OSU’s best win via Urban Transitive Property.
December 4th, 2022 at 8:47 PM ^
It doesn't really matter, Georgia or Michigan, you still have to know how to tackle.
December 4th, 2022 at 8:57 PM ^
I thought the same after watching some of the Purdue FFFF, but they somehow learned to tackle between those clips and the B10 championship game (not sarcasm, that really surprised me).
Other than Edward's multiple broken tackle TD run of course, but most of those didn't look as bad as the clips from FFFF either.
December 4th, 2022 at 8:47 PM ^
Who cares?
December 4th, 2022 at 8:48 PM ^
They dropped 6 spots by losing. That seems somewhat harsh, even considering they got blown out. That says to me that the Committee didn’t think that much of them to begin with and only had them at 4 to keep a non-division winning OSU out. When SC crapped the bed, that allowed the committee to rank SC properly.
December 4th, 2022 at 9:04 PM ^
I was thinking "but there's so many ranked PAC12 teams this year!" but it looks like USC avoided Oregon and Washington this year entirely - maybe the disrespect from the committee was accurate even at the time.
December 4th, 2022 at 8:49 PM ^
One time when I was a teenager I poured gasoline into a styrofoam cup. I didn't die, but what if I had???
December 4th, 2022 at 9:15 PM ^
Homemade napalm. This was an activity in my childhood
December 4th, 2022 at 9:34 PM ^
I did this too at a gas station!
December 4th, 2022 at 8:51 PM ^
I could see the extra motivation were the Pac-12 title game the last of the P5 title games. But since it's the first, you can't be thinking about hypothetical seeding scenarios. You just have to win -- hopefully big -- and then see what shakes out on Saturday.
I didn't see the game myself, but the box score and the anecdotes I've heard paint a picture of a team thinking they were hot shit and were rudely told they were not.
December 4th, 2022 at 8:59 PM ^
As soon as Caleb Williams got hurt, it seemed like USC couldn't do anything right. I didn't watch the game closely or rewatch it, but that was my impression.
December 4th, 2022 at 8:51 PM ^
SC can’t tackle.
December 4th, 2022 at 8:53 PM ^
I actually agree with the OP. Interesting theoretical. They likely would have jumped TCU if they won, as it is a more recent win in a championship game and they would have won their conference.
Was thinking before their game that I didn't want to face them and Caleb Williams, would rather face TCU. After seeing the Pac 12 game and how they tackled, we would have run right through their defense. At least TCU can tackle.
December 4th, 2022 at 9:01 PM ^
I would have much rather faced TCU than USC too - but it might be too many nightmares of (Juice Williams originally, but all of the ones after) fast mobile QBs tearing us up.
Decade+ later and it still gives me the willies. I don't have nearly as bad memories of regular mobile QBs (Tebow comes to mind), which is what I think Duggan is?
December 4th, 2022 at 10:00 PM ^
Add in Dennis Dixon and Donovan McNabb.
December 4th, 2022 at 10:41 PM ^
McNabb is before my time but I can definitely imagine.
And after The Horror I did not watch the Oregon game, unknowingly saving myself some extra pain.
December 4th, 2022 at 9:11 PM ^
How stoned are you? Unless Georgia and Michigan got pummeled and lost half their players, USC was never going to be number one.
December 4th, 2022 at 9:12 PM ^
I personally think championship games are to advance and not to lose the place you already have. That is bullshit. For example, if TCU had a loss and was 5 or 6, then they win the championship. If the fourth place team, let us say OSU, had a loss to UM but was not in championship game, them you compare TCU vs OSU after the championship game.
Unfortunately, that is not how things work. Committee just figures out who they think is a better team. They use some metrics but it is subjective. USC screwed themselves by playing in championship game.
That is my opinion and I am sure many won't share that.
Edit: I will also add that there are star gazers in the committee as well. If UM had a similar season as OSU, there will not be any push to put UM up there. OSU and SEC get special treatment. UM just has to win every time. That sucks but leaders overcome all odds. Fuck OSU.
December 4th, 2022 at 9:20 PM ^
At least this would be a nice hard and explainable metric - that would be nice.
Imagine if the committee came out and said "for all P5 teams, no team with more losses will ever make it over a team with less losses" - there'd be a lot less room for arguing. I'm looking at Wikipedia, and its looking like that has so far been the case anyways.
December 4th, 2022 at 9:13 PM ^
It would have been good for USC because we would have stomped them all the way back to 2004 when there were last relevant