OT - Reddit CFB Risk Update 6/28: Final Stretch (7 days left)

Submitted by Michigan CFB R… on June 28th, 2018 at 10:36 AM

After a neutral-to-decent RNG night the day before, last night's RNG was slightly negative.  The odds had us expecting 22.11 territories at the end of the night and we ended up with 20.  Particularly painful was losing AA on 82% win odds and WMU on 90% odds.  If you've been with us for the last few weeks, you've been able to see how this game fluctuates with its ups and downs from day to day.

Michigan (20) is currently in second place behind Florida (31) with Nebraska (19) making a final push to win. We urge you all to please remain active in this final week. This is the last week you have to make votes and to push towards a victory here.  Participation is crucial if we are to end the final week on an upswing.

context0609_0.png

Announcement: Please don’t post your orders anywhere (mgoblog included). Other teams visit this blog in hopes of seeing what we will be doing, and it would be much better it if they were left in the dark. If you have a question about an assignment, try to ask it in general terms, instead of naming specific territories.

 

Steps To Play Every Day:

  1. Sign up for a reddit.com account if you don’t have one already
  2. Visit https://flair.redditcfb.com/ " go to “find by conference," click “FBS” then “Big 10” and finally “Michigan” to set yourself as a member of our team. Click “Update Flair” to set it.
  3. Visit https://michigancfbrisk.com/ and click “Get Order!”
  4. Click the blue chessboard beneath the logo that you’re meant to attack/defend to take you to the game.
  5. Scroll down, now, and on the right hand side of the screen, you will see the options that you can attack or defend. Click the school logo that you were assigned to.

Do not ever attack any territory that is owned by one of our allies unless specifically told to do so in your orders. Our allies are Clemson, Florida, Georgia Tech, and Texas. If you get an order to attack an ally owned territory then it means we are coordinating with them, so it is acceptable. Otherwise, do not attack allied territories or defend territories that allies border please!

 

Make sure you aren't flagged as a bot

One potential issue with the influx of new users we had is that some players may have been flagged as a bot and therefore their actions may not be counting. If you are flagged as a bot you will see the image below on vote.redditcfb.com

Bot Flagging.png

If you are seeing this message that asks you to contact the game mods, follow the instructions below, otherwise you can ignore this.

 

1. Follow the link shown in the screenshot above and fill out the google form

2. Wait at least one day for the text box to disappear. If it does disappear, you are all set.

3. If the bot disclaimer message persists after one day, then message the mods of /r/cfbrisk directly. You can follow the link in step 4 below to do this in one easy click.

4. https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2FCFBRisk&subject=&message=

5. Be patient as the mods of the game are busy and they are putting a lot of effort into running this thing.

 

Daily Map:

 

map0609_0.png

Comments

NowTameInThe603

June 28th, 2018 at 10:49 AM ^

morale super low.

 

Florida is going to run away with this because they had the smart strategy of heading to the less competitive west. 

You can say OSU and UW sole goal is to make sure Michigan doesnt win but this game rewards aggressive play. We allowed Clemson to stick around too long and we played defense when we should have attacked. This game is about gaining territories not defending them.

Attikus

June 28th, 2018 at 10:56 AM ^

The bigger mistake, than Clemson (which really probably wasn't a mistake, was not aggressively pushing to eliminate OSU and WI regardless of the number of territories we held. It'd have paid dividends to end them, then work on securing the midwest. Now we have two rivals pigeonholed in 2-3+ territories that we probably cannot squash.

The Maizer

June 28th, 2018 at 11:11 AM ^

If Florida takes first, it will be in large part due to their superiority of star power. While their western assault strategy has paid dividends, it is also bolstered by their defense of the southeast. If you have no buffered territory, aggressive play just gets you the expected territories that your team's star power balances out to (you'll lose territories when you've over extended).

1VaBlue1

June 28th, 2018 at 11:52 AM ^

The way you speak sounds a lot like the way some UM football coaches coached.  Stop attacking when you get a lead, and hope the defense holds.  Don't over-extend your offense, trust the defense.  And so on and so forth.  I have a hard time believing the 'R' in RNG - seems a little weighted, it does...

Michigan CFB R…

June 28th, 2018 at 12:01 PM ^

Florida is looking good right now because they have 40% more star power than the next closest team, which is us.  Comparing us to Florida when there's that huge of a disparity is disingenuous.

 

Also, there's no such thing as defense in this game.  Playing "defense" is effectively the same thing as "attacking".

Pkf97

June 28th, 2018 at 3:17 PM ^

I've been an obedient follower of my daily orders, but I really feel like we over-expanded when we shifted from our Northeast base of operations into the Midwest.  It allowed us to get surrounded with too much territory to defend.  I wish we had moved a little slow/steadier with an emphasis on keeping safe territory in the Northeast.

M_Born M_Believer

June 28th, 2018 at 4:59 PM ^

The biggest issue there is that OSU and Wisconsin did an end around.  Watch the day by day progressions.  We had pushed them out of the NE and was making progress, but then you will see that OSU and Wisky changed tactics and focused more on attacking GT and Clemson and moved around our strong hold. 

That created a multi front for us and started to spread our forces as we had to fend off Bama, Stanford, and Nebraska in the West and still had to contend with OSU and Wisky in the east.

Eliminating anyone at this point takes some incredible luck.  Even Stanford and VT only were eliminated by 1 night of obscured bad luck.

aleng

June 28th, 2018 at 1:37 PM ^

Except that I have 7 kids... soooooo, you can accuse me of hiding from my responsibilities by participating in a meaningless game, which I imagine could be said about most everyone on mgoblog, but calling me a virgin you cannot.

Side note... PSA for anyone out there who has not yet procreated... be careful, things can escalate quickly!

Gavia immer_MI

June 28th, 2018 at 11:41 AM ^

I'm happy many find joy in this, but for me, the end can't come soon enough. I can't quite figure out why, but I think it's because of the clutter it adds to the board.

I know, I know, "get off my grass kids!".

andrewG

June 29th, 2018 at 1:10 PM ^

So... what exciting topics have we failed to capture on the board? Threads are going up for single crystal ballz. I guess we are missing out the iterations of "here's my overly optimistic/pessimistic assessment of the upcoming season, let's fight about it!" threads that normally pop up around this time.

Cali Wolverine

June 28th, 2018 at 11:49 AM ^

You lost Ann Arbor to Ohio State?!  Very disappointing.  If you don’t take Ann Arbor and the great state of Michigan back, let alone wipe out Ohio State from the game, can you get the hours playing this game back at the end?

trueblueintexas

June 28th, 2018 at 1:24 PM ^

The only thing the last few days prove is Michigan fans are some of the best second guessing arm chair QB's around no matter what it is they think they know more about than the people actually running the show. 

Solecismic

June 28th, 2018 at 5:26 PM ^

Something has to be done. Yesterday's performance was an embarrassment. The current leadership will never bring us a title.

I was sent into Iowa and we outnumbered the enemy 5 to 1 and what happened? We lost. That's a reflection on the entire program, top to bottom. Some of you three- and four-stars just aren't performing. Change is necessary.

(since Maizen isn't around, I felt this needed to be said - lives are at stake, actual lives here).