OT - Reddit CFB Risk Update 6/28: Final Stretch (7 days left)
After a neutral-to-decent RNG night the day before, last night's RNG was slightly negative. The odds had us expecting 22.11 territories at the end of the night and we ended up with 20. Particularly painful was losing AA on 82% win odds and WMU on 90% odds. If you've been with us for the last few weeks, you've been able to see how this game fluctuates with its ups and downs from day to day.
Michigan (20) is currently in second place behind Florida (31) with Nebraska (19) making a final push to win. We urge you all to please remain active in this final week. This is the last week you have to make votes and to push towards a victory here. Participation is crucial if we are to end the final week on an upswing.
Announcement: Please don’t post your orders anywhere (mgoblog included). Other teams visit this blog in hopes of seeing what we will be doing, and it would be much better it if they were left in the dark. If you have a question about an assignment, try to ask it in general terms, instead of naming specific territories.
Steps To Play Every Day:
- Sign up for a reddit.com account if you don’t have one already
- Visit https://flair.redditcfb.com/ " go to “find by conference," click “FBS” then “Big 10” and finally “Michigan” to set yourself as a member of our team. Click “Update Flair” to set it.
- Visit https://michigancfbrisk.com/ and click “Get Order!”
- Click the blue chessboard beneath the logo that you’re meant to attack/defend to take you to the game.
- Scroll down, now, and on the right hand side of the screen, you will see the options that you can attack or defend. Click the school logo that you were assigned to.
Do not ever attack any territory that is owned by one of our allies unless specifically told to do so in your orders. Our allies are Clemson, Florida, Georgia Tech, and Texas. If you get an order to attack an ally owned territory then it means we are coordinating with them, so it is acceptable. Otherwise, do not attack allied territories or defend territories that allies border please!
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Daily Map:
Title should say 6 days left, not 7.
morale super low.
Florida is going to run away with this because they had the smart strategy of heading to the less competitive west.
You can say OSU and UW sole goal is to make sure Michigan doesnt win but this game rewards aggressive play. We allowed Clemson to stick around too long and we played defense when we should have attacked. This game is about gaining territories not defending them.
The bigger mistake, than Clemson (which really probably wasn't a mistake, was not aggressively pushing to eliminate OSU and WI regardless of the number of territories we held. It'd have paid dividends to end them, then work on securing the midwest. Now we have two rivals pigeonholed in 2-3+ territories that we probably cannot squash.
The odds of eliminating a team with as much star power as OSU or Wisconsin are very small, even if you sacrifice nearly all of your other territories to do so.
Eliminating either of those teams is nigh impossible, particularly OSU. On a good night under perfect conditions, you're looking at a maximum 15% chance of eliminating Wisconsin.
We did try to eliminate Wisky (to my understanding) but the way in which territories are won and lost is completely whacky.
If Florida takes first, it will be in large part due to their superiority of star power. While their western assault strategy has paid dividends, it is also bolstered by their defense of the southeast. If you have no buffered territory, aggressive play just gets you the expected territories that your team's star power balances out to (you'll lose territories when you've over extended).
Other than turns taken and clinking on the links...is there any way to boost star rating? Why is Florida's star power superior?
They have a LOT of 5 stars. They have time on r/cfb or karma to get to 5 stars. Other fan bases may have more users on r/cfb for longer because they don't have an mgoblog equivalent to compete with it.
The way you speak sounds a lot like the way some UM football coaches coached. Stop attacking when you get a lead, and hope the defense holds. Don't over-extend your offense, trust the defense. And so on and so forth. I have a hard time believing the 'R' in RNG - seems a little weighted, it does...
Florida is looking good right now because they have 40% more star power than the next closest team, which is us. Comparing us to Florida when there's that huge of a disparity is disingenuous.
Also, there's no such thing as defense in this game. Playing "defense" is effectively the same thing as "attacking".
I've been an obedient follower of my daily orders, but I really feel like we over-expanded when we shifted from our Northeast base of operations into the Midwest. It allowed us to get surrounded with too much territory to defend. I wish we had moved a little slow/steadier with an emphasis on keeping safe territory in the Northeast.
The biggest issue there is that OSU and Wisconsin did an end around. Watch the day by day progressions. We had pushed them out of the NE and was making progress, but then you will see that OSU and Wisky changed tactics and focused more on attacking GT and Clemson and moved around our strong hold.
That created a multi front for us and started to spread our forces as we had to fend off Bama, Stanford, and Nebraska in the West and still had to contend with OSU and Wisky in the east.
Eliminating anyone at this point takes some incredible luck. Even Stanford and VT only were eliminated by 1 night of obscured bad luck.
Are you losers still playing this? Worst thread in Mgoblog history.
Based on your comment history, you seem really unhappy.
Don't you worry. Right about the time that this ends, you'll have Draftageddon to complain about.
I'd upvote this if I could. I love how if there's something on this site that doesn't interest me, its very easy to just not read it.
And, for the record, I think this is just fun to watch/read and Draftageddon is fun even if it goes on for too long. When it does, I just move on with my day.
Nothing like coming out of your hole after a year and a half just to bitch a few times about the offseason threads.
I've been very vocal and very consistent on this. I think this Risk thread sucks and you're all virgins.
Except that I have 7 kids... soooooo, you can accuse me of hiding from my responsibilities by participating in a meaningless game, which I imagine could be said about most everyone on mgoblog, but calling me a virgin you cannot.
Side note... PSA for anyone out there who has not yet procreated... be careful, things can escalate quickly!
7 kids! Damn! Congrats on the sex!
Ha, it was a busy decade!
Just impressed I still have 14 points left.
Don't be so mad online Dano. Check out the thread about stress from a few days ago. Might help you relax and be more fun.
Ha! I can’t help but notice you are clearly a Pot talking about a Kettle because:
Your negative energy is the opposite of BDE.
Its like you've never even seen Draftageddon.
I wish I could say I hadn’t.
Oh man! My order for the day is either really tough to do based on my fan loyalties, easy to come to terms with or wholly neutral. Take that spies!
Joined for the final push.
Same! Hopefully it's not too little, too late.
Not at all. Need all the help we can muster. Glad to have both of you!
I'm happy many find joy in this, but for me, the end can't come soon enough. I can't quite figure out why, but I think it's because of the clutter it adds to the board.
I know, I know, "get off my grass kids!".
The same board that often features 2 of these threads simultaneously because there's so little else to talk about right now?
I don't think it is just that there is so little to talk about.
I also feel general board apathy since the new site launch has driven some folks away - or they at least come less often.
Present company included.
The conversation on their discord channel around game strategy and general football talk has been a good distraction in the doldrums of the summer off (no?) topic season.
So... what exciting topics have we failed to capture on the board? Threads are going up for single crystal ballz. I guess we are missing out the iterations of "here's my overly optimistic/pessimistic assessment of the upcoming season, let's fight about it!" threads that normally pop up around this time.
just landed that 5th star today!
You lost Ann Arbor to Ohio State?! Very disappointing. If you don’t take Ann Arbor and the great state of Michigan back, let alone wipe out Ohio State from the game, can you get the hours playing this game back at the end?
AA and the territories in Michigan are just a few territories out of many on the map, nothing more. And considering the 82% success odds there last night, I don't really think it's fair to say that we lost it.
Game is rigged
Offseason... it's the new in-season.
I never get tired complaining about officiating /s
The only thing the last few days prove is Michigan fans are some of the best second guessing arm chair QB's around no matter what it is they think they know more about than the people actually running the show.
Did anyone else get banned from taking orders
I believe that can happen if you take orders but then do something other than your orders. It messes up the counts for the strategy.
We blacklist users if they have consistently failed to follow the orders they took on the website. If you believe that you were wrongly blacklisted, message us by typing @mod on our discord server and we'll be happy to resolve it.
Something has to be done. Yesterday's performance was an embarrassment. The current leadership will never bring us a title.
I was sent into Iowa and we outnumbered the enemy 5 to 1 and what happened? We lost. That's a reflection on the entire program, top to bottom. Some of you three- and four-stars just aren't performing. Change is necessary.
(since Maizen isn't around, I felt this needed to be said - lives are at stake, actual lives here).
Is Pep Hamilton calling our plays? We are fading in the 4th quarter!