OT - Reddit CFB Risk Update 6/26: Time to Rebound (8 Turns Left!)

Submitted by Michigan CFB R… on June 26th, 2018 at 10:50 AM

There's no way to sugarcoat it, we had a pretty awful roll last night.  Based on the numbers, we were expected to have ~26 territories at the end of last night.  We ended up with 21, which was 5(!) under our expected total according to the actual odds.

Despite our lousy luck last night, Michigan's 21 territories is still good for second place under Florida’s 26. Nebraska is in third right now with 16. There is still plenty of time to push ourselves into the top spot.

 

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There are only 8 turns left so we urge you all to continue to play and if you are new then please join in on this domination. It's fun, trust us. There's a very real chance that we can get the 5 members of our alliance into the top 5 by the time the game is over. So please continue to take orders!

The winner of our MgoContest yesterday (one random MVP who followed their website orders is selected to receive Mgoblog points) tonight was: u/onefouronefour. Congrats!

PS: Some of you may have heard rumors that Clemson flipped over to the bad guys. We want to ensure you that this was a false rumor and a coordinated effort from our alliance, so please do not attack Clemson owned territories unless specified by the website.

 

Announcement: Please don’t post your orders anywhere (mgoblog included). Other teams visit this blog in hopes of seeing what we will be doing, and it would be much better it if they were left in the dark. If you have a question about an assignment, try to ask it in general terms, instead of naming specific territories.

 

Steps To Play Every Day:

  1. Sign up for a reddit.com account if you don’t have one already
  2. Visit https://flair.redditcfb.com/ " go to “find by conference," click “FBS” then “Big 10” and finally “Michigan” to set yourself as a member of our team. Click “Update Flair” to set it.
  3. Visit https://michigancfbrisk.com/ and click “Get Order!”
  4. Click the blue chessboard beneath the logo that you’re meant to attack/defend to take you to the game.
  5. Scroll down, now, and on the right hand side of the screen, you will see the options that you can attack or defend. Click the school logo that you were assigned to.

Do not ever attack any territory that is owned by one of our allies unless specifically told to do so in your orders. Our allies are Clemson, Florida, Georgia Tech, and Texas. If you get an order to attack an ally owned territory then it means we are coordinating with them, so it is acceptable. Otherwise, do not attack allied territories or defend territories that allies border please!

 

Make sure you aren't flagged as a bot

One potential issue with the influx of new users we had is that some players may have been flagged as a bot and therefore their actions may not be counting. If you are flagged as a bot you will see the image below on vote.redditcfb.com

Bot Flagging.png

If you are seeing this message that asks you to contact the game mods, follow the instructions below, otherwise you can ignore this.

 

1. Follow the link shown in the screenshot above and fill out the google form

2. Wait at least one day for the text box to disappear. If it does disappear, you are all set.

3. If the bot disclaimer message persists after one day, then message the mods of /r/cfbrisk directly. You can follow the link in step 4 below to do this in one easy click.

4. https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2FCFBRisk&subject=&message=

5. Be patient as the mods of the game are busy and they are putting a lot of effort into running this thing.

 

Daily Map:

 

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Comments

Chaco

June 26th, 2018 at 10:57 AM ^

Just as a casual observer who has played a lot of RISK - don't we seem to be having more than our fair share of "lousy nights filled with bad luck" given the odds/weightings?  

mdurham07

June 26th, 2018 at 12:05 PM ^

The mechanics of the game are different.  In this game, if we send 9 stars to a territory, and our opponents send 1 star, we have a 90% chance of winning (9/(9+1)).  In risk the board game, we'd have a 99.987% chance of winning (http://datagenetics.com/blog/november22011/index.html).  So even when we have a numbers advantage, we don't normally get huge odds.  With 30+ contested territories every night, there is a large chance for random numbers to swing to the good or bad.

Carolina Maize

June 26th, 2018 at 5:32 PM ^

From the pretty much non answer I got yesterday, it must be double top secret, about how stars are used, those 9 star strengths can be different.  We were told that 3,4 and 5 stars have more weight.  Well duh.  How much more weight must be the secret part.  So, as in your example, if you have 9 stars and all of them are 1 star players, like me, then there would be a 90% chance of winning.  But if there is a 5 and 4 star the odds would be even better in secretville.

However the math works out, I think we need to attack more, a lot more.  Have a few defenders to put up a modest fight and hope for those counterintuitive odds to start working in our favor.  And everywhere else start pushing the other teams faces in the dirt.

1VaBlue1

June 26th, 2018 at 12:09 PM ^

"It's fun, trust us."

I must be missing something.  I've been playing - going to the site, getting my orders, and clicking either 'attack' or 'defend'.  That's it.  Then it's done.  So apparently, I'm not grasping the fun part.  Am I not looking in the right place?  Is there a page I'm not seeing?  Who/what/where are the 'attack/defend' decisions made?  Who/how are we coordinating with allies?

I'll continue to play - a couple of clicks a day for 8 days won't kill me.  But I feel I've lost out on part this.  The fun part...  What did I miss?

s1105615

June 26th, 2018 at 12:24 PM ^

I understand where you're coming from...the fun part, I think, is when you participate in the discord discussions and then when you see the results and there are a ton of new UM territories.  I don't think the discord discussions (or the reddit threads) are near as much fun as my safe UM echo chamber here on MGoBlog, but that might just be me.

1VaBlue1

June 26th, 2018 at 12:28 PM ^

I guess this makes sense, and I kinda thought participation in whatever Reddit thread is associated would make it more interesting.  But, like your last sentence intones, I spend enough time here and have no desire to broaden my social media horizons.  A Reddit thread has no appeal to me, especially when considering that it wouldn't be just totally centered on what I like.  This is about me, dammit!!

Rufus X

June 26th, 2018 at 2:35 PM ^

It's a lot of  fun for the person (whoever that is) that works the strategy for the entire UM team. The rest of us are just pawns. We don't get to decide anything, and if we state the obvious (like the Clemson alliance is completely 1-sided and we get very little benefit with mostly downside since they can't control their "rogue" players) then you get derided as not understanding the big picture or the mechanics of the game.

Sadly I continue to take and follow my orders, even though I have mostly lost interest.

Wings Of Distinction

June 26th, 2018 at 6:13 PM ^

I have no issue with the decision makers. 

I do, however, agree that there appears to be shenanigans going on with the game hosts/coordinators/coders, etc.

IMHO the map should have been a mass of maize long ago.