Opening line for this weekend (-10.5)

Submitted by bluewave720 on October 14th, 2012 at 6:11 PM

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/2/?s=3468

I always take great interest in watching the evolution of lines over the course of a week.  Looks like this one has started out pretty high.  Michigan -10.5 and -11.5 from the only two data points at 6ish on Sunday night.  

Comments

Rather be on BA

October 14th, 2012 at 7:46 PM ^

I think we struggle on offense against an MSU team playing their equivalent of the B1G championship game but we still prevail with strong D and just enough O:  17-6 the good guys.

EDIT: Honestly didn't read the above post prior to my own post.

Cold War

October 14th, 2012 at 8:00 PM ^

If we come to play, we'll win by two scores or  more. And if  you don't come to play against a rival that has beaten you four in a row, or you think you can skate through, you don't deserve to win.

Perkis-Size Me

October 14th, 2012 at 8:45 PM ^

This game will be close. MSU's entire season rides on this game, even if they were undefeated. They will prepare for this game like its their Super Bowl. Michigan will win, but it'll be closer than we'd like it to be.

Still, I'd kill for a 35-7 beatdown, and Little Brother chants to start mid-third quarter.

swan flu

October 14th, 2012 at 8:50 PM ^

I am just now recalling what it feels like to have a reliable defense during weeks of rivalry games. It feels good. It feels very good.

 

Michigan- 27 MSU- 13

BlueinLansing

October 14th, 2012 at 8:55 PM ^

take the points in a heartbeat.  However, Illinois is dreadfully bad at football, that game meant absolutely nothing and was not a defensive or offensive challenge and perhaps has raised expectations a bit too much.

 

Throw in a meh Wisconsin dismantling Purdue and its pretty obvious Michigan has not been tested at all in the BIG.

 

OTOH, I think Michigan is making the same steady progress they made a year ago, if anything they've shown its not easy to move the ball on them when you aren't stacked like Alabama or running an option offense no one else runs.  If Michigan runs the ball Saturday they'll in with ease, if its a struggle to run like last year against Staee this will come right down the final 5 or 10 minutes.

 

I think we sneak this one out.  Take the points

ND Sux

October 14th, 2012 at 9:30 PM ^

but mark my words...Wisconsin is finding their identity and hitting stride.  They're better than you think, therefore the Purdue team we stomped on the road wasn't as bad as they seem right now. 

Our D is also finding it's stride, and that is why we'll dismantle MSU by two TDs. 

Blazefire

October 14th, 2012 at 9:12 PM ^

A lot of MSU fans are saying they will give their backup Connor a chance if Maxwell falters early. I think we'll win no problem, but he's supposed to be pretty mobile. Nothing we couldn't catch, but it will affect their gameplan in ways our practice might not prpare for.

I think we'll win handidly, and beat the spread, but I'm not sure about a blowout. Their D is not bad. Not great, but not bad. The RB's will have to help out a little more than they did vs Ill and Purdue.

switch26

October 15th, 2012 at 10:15 AM ^

yea Cook, the kid MSU players tweeted about that was better than denard?  Ya i saw what that scrub could do when they brought him in for a read option and he got smashed for a 4 yard loss..

 

He looked like henne trying to scramble

TheGeneral

October 14th, 2012 at 9:19 PM ^

State will play cover 0, if Denard hits passes we win if he doesn't we lose same as last year.
My concern is our D line can't get off blocks. You have to get off blocks to keep Bell from getting upfield.

ND Sux

October 14th, 2012 at 9:44 PM ^

keeps MSU's OL off our LBs, we'll be fine.  Don't you read the UFRs?  :) 

Seriously though, last year we played Sparty in what, Mattison's sixth game at UM?  Our D got better and better as the year went on.  I still think if we played MSU at year end, we might have won. 

This year we had to adjust to some key personnel losses, but finding our way again.  Our LB play is way better than it was when we played MSU last year, IMO. 

We WILL win this game by ten or more.  I'm sticking with 27-13.

BlockM

October 14th, 2012 at 10:21 PM ^

The key to this game is Borges. I don't want to see him go all crazy again and try to do exotic stuff that doesn't work before reverting back to running the ball. If we run from the start and take what the defense gives us we'll have the thing wrapped up in the first half. If not, well, things could get really interesting.

Sopwith

October 15th, 2012 at 10:31 AM ^

Forget 8 man fronts.  Actually, we may not even see a 9 man front.  We may face the first ever 11-man front.  They are simply not going to give up the run until we complete 3-4 passes in a row.  Figures to look a lot like VaTech with press coverage the whole way.  Going to be a tough road, hombres.

AMazinBlue

October 14th, 2012 at 11:28 PM ^

If we stop him on the early down and force Maxwell to throw and play the screen well, they will be in for a long day.  If we don't limit Bell and he breaks any long runs, they will score a TD.

My guess is we play better than last year, but the game will be close.  If Denard stays healthy and we control the lines, UM wins 27-13.  If we can contain Bell, it could be a long day.  I still say we win solidly, but not a total domination.  This rivalry is on again so many of the numbers are meaningless.

If our Oline gives Denard room to step into throws and stop the blitzes we winn this game.  If he is rushed hard all day, it might be tough.  I don't see MSU winning, but it will be a fight because of the hatred.

BILG

October 15th, 2012 at 12:12 AM ^

This one has all the signs of a beat down.  Michigan seems to be getting better every week, both on offense and defense.  If Gorgeous Al can keep Denard on point this week it could get really ugly really quickly for MSU.

With Sparty struggling, this is the type of game that can put an end to their cute little run and restore order...with an old fashioned hammering.

We are more talented, playing at home, have revenge on the minds, have lots of momentum.  Match their physicality and hate and it should be a route.

Michigan 31

Michigan State 10

It only gets uglier from here on out for Sparty.  Their 3 stars coached up by Dantonio will not be able to compete with the top 5 Hoke classes, loaded up on the lines, coached up by Mattison/Hoke.  Trying to out-physical Michigan going forward will be an exercise in futility.  My guess going forward, much like in the Carr years, teams running spreads like Purdue and Northwestern will pose more of a threat to us than smash mouth man-ball teams like current MSU. 
 

Ali G Bomaye

October 15th, 2012 at 4:56 PM ^

I'd settle for 119-0.

"The game was played in two halves of 20 minutes and 18 minutes. Demonstrating the understatement of the "Point-a-Minute" name given to the team, the Wolverines scored 119 points in 38 minutes of play, an average of 3.1 points per minute."

randyfloyd

October 15th, 2012 at 8:23 AM ^

I think it could be a higher margin, because of the UM defense and the MSU offense. However, this is a rivalry game and Dantonio is one of the few coaches, that have been able to mostly contain Denard.