McMurphy source: Brohm is 'clear cut #1 choice' for UL job

Submitted by Indy Pete - Go Blue on November 11th, 2018 at 12:29 PM

So there is this amazing HS football player named George Karlaftis...

 

https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/status/1061661278471667718?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1061661278471667718&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fbleacherreport.com%2F

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Louisville AD Vince Tyra on firing Bobby Petrino: “I did not have the confidence that it was going to happen next season without a change & it needs to start happening now.” Source told @WatchStadium Purdue’s Jeff Brohm, a UL grad, is “clear cut No. 1 choice” of Cards

8:45 AM - 11 Nov 2018

Comments

rice4114

November 11th, 2018 at 12:32 PM ^

These big ten teams should not be letting coaches go. Write the check and keep your coach. Louisville is one less Lamar Jackson away from being Purdue. 

cletus318

November 11th, 2018 at 5:51 PM ^

At this point? Almost certainly. It's easier to be good at Louisville (mind you, Louisville has finished the season ranked 7 times since Purdue last has). It would be a move to a weaker conference. It's a better location for recruiting (Lafayette-West Lafayette stretches the definition of "city"). Louisville has a significantly larger athletic budget.

Night_King

November 11th, 2018 at 12:35 PM ^

Is it a lock that we land Karlaftis if Brohm leaves? Obviously it increases the chances but has anyone locally or nationally confidently stated Karlaftis wants to come here if Brohm leaves?

Mr Miggle

November 11th, 2018 at 1:21 PM ^

Agreed, not a lock, but maybe close to one. If Brohm goes, he's taking his staff with him. Even if Purdue makes a good hire, he's got to hire a staff and then they have to build a relationship with Karlaftis. There won't be much time for that. And while Karlaftis is important, they will be scrambling to hold on to other recruits and fill out the class. More uncertainty for Karlaftis. He knows and likes the situation at Michigan. 

It's a bad sign for Purdue's chances that Karlaftis has already been seriously looking around in case of a coaching change. Realistically, if he knew what kind of season we would have, maybe he wouldn't have committed to Purdue in the first place.

yoyo

November 11th, 2018 at 12:44 PM ^

He said in the past he's solid to Purdue but he likes Michigan a lot. I imagine a promising coach can assuage concerns of joining a historically bad team but all that goes away if Brohm heads to Louisville.

“If I had to pick between the two right now, it would be a tough decision,” Karlaftis said. “They want me equally and the pros and cons are the same for both. It’s not like I don’t like Purdue anymore and I’m still 100 percent committed.”

https://www.jconline.com/story/sports/college/purdue/football/2018/04/23/michigan-isnt-backing-off-purdue-football-commitment-george-karlaftis/542396002/

BuckNekked

November 11th, 2018 at 12:38 PM ^

I know Brohm is a Lousiville alum but why in the hell would he take a less prestigious job? I realize Purdue has been down for a bit but Louisville has always been down except for two years with a once in program history QB. Purdue has some history and tradition. Louisville has nothing.

WestQuad

November 11th, 2018 at 4:29 PM ^

Being the coach of the school you played for is huge.  A few mill a year goes a long way in Kentucky and he could be there for 20-30 years if he half way performs.  He could put them on the map.  Guys like Fitzgerald and Scott Frost And Harbaugh are what college football is about.  Guys like Saban and Meyer suck.

Bambi

November 11th, 2018 at 1:25 PM ^

I just posted a similar thing on Reddit, but this is just so wrong to me.

In Joe Tiller's last year at Purdue (2008), Purdue went 4-8. The year before that they had 8 wins. In the years since, Purdue has gone:

5-7

4-8

7-6

6-6

1-11

3-9

2-10

3-9

7-6

5-5 (current season)

Since 2008, Purdue has gone 47-85. The numbers are brought down by Hazel but still they haven't won more than 7 games since 2008 and they've only done that twice. Considering they're 5-5 right now, their best case scenario is 8 wins but I wouldn't bet on that since they just got wrecked by Minnesota. We're celebrating Brohm for doing a great job (which he has) but that still translates to .500 at Purdue.

Looking at Louisville since 2008:

5-7

4-8

7-6

7-6

11-2

12-1

9-4

8-5

9-4

8-5

2-8

That's 82-56 since 2008. Granted they've only been P5 since 2014, but before this year they averaged 8.4-4.5 in 4 years at the P5 level. They've also had a Heisman winner and BCS bowl since 2008.

Louisville is not a lateral move from Purdue, it's a step up. Louisville is bad this year and Purdue is average, but that's it. Brohm has done a great job to make people think it's a lateral move (Petrino has helped), but imagine what he can do at Louisville. He's the hometown hero there and basically all his best recruits at Purdue (minus Karlaftis) are from Louisville, so imagine what happens when he can start recruiting those kids to stay home instead of telling them to move states.

NittanyFan

November 11th, 2018 at 1:55 PM ^

Louisville's an interesting job.  There are some structural elements that make success possible, but there are some structural elements that make success tough.

UL is most analogous to Cincinnati, Houston and Memphis: a big public city school that is clearly not the most popular such program in their state, but is fairly close (and probably higher for UL) to "parity in fan support" to "big state University" within the city itself.

But unlike Cinci, Houston and Memphis - UL made it into the Power 5.  And they also play in a city with no other Pro Sports.  They benefit from being the only game in town.

But then again, UL is in Kentucky.  Kentucky is a nice state, I used to live there.  But it's not one of the more important American states and UL already ranks 2nd within that state.

But then again, UL has some positives in recruiting.  Louisville HS football is rather good.  Playing in the ACC, they are a credible option for Florida and Mid-Atlantic kids.  They're at the geographical interface of the South and Midwest - they can get kids from either area and it won't necessarily be a dramatic culture shock.

It really depends on the coach at UL.  They really haven't had any middle-of-the-road coaches.  Their very good (John L, Charlie Strong) and great (Schnellenberger, Petrino version 1.0) coaches have leveraged the good aspects of the job.  Their bad (Ron Cooper, Kragthorpe) coaches couldn't find a way to rise above the structural barriers associated w/ UL, and then those barriers defined their Cardinal career.

If I'm Brohm - I take the job and have faith that I can become the next great UL coach.  Others have proven it's very possible there.

Leaders And Best

November 11th, 2018 at 1:56 PM ^

Disagree somewhat and take issue with how you present those records. Louisville's record is inflated from being in the Big East/AAC from 2008-2013. Despite having a Heisman Trophy winner in Lamar Jackson, they have averaged over 5 losses in the last 5 years since moving to the ACC. Louisville might have a higher potential than Purdue given its proximity to more fertile recruiting areas, but the expectations and barriers to reach that potential are much higher.

Louisville has to compete against Clemson and FSU within their division. Purdue doesn't have the same obstacles in the B1G West and has a built-in advantage with a permanent crossover with Indiana which helps them avoid Michigan, OSU, and PSU more often than B1G West rivals. Purdue has B1G money to spend and their AD is not in turmoil like Louisville's right now.

Bambi

November 11th, 2018 at 2:42 PM ^

"Louisville's record is inflated from being in the Big East/AAC from 2008-2013."

Sure, that's true. But 12-1 is 12-1, and it's a 12-1 with a BCS win. None of they Purdue teams since 2008 would have even sniffed those Louisville teams on the field. Louisville has easily been the better football program in recent years, Big East or Big 10.

"Despite having a Heisman Trophy winner in Lamar Jackson, they have averaged over 5 losses in the last 5 years since moving to the ACC"

That's one more Hesiman winner than Purdue has developed. How many loses has Purdue averaged in the B1G West in that span, which you acknowledge is a weaker division? Louisville has a Heisman winner at Louisville under Petrino, who we assume is a worse coach than Brohm. Imagine the ceiling with Brohm.

"but the expectations and barriers to reach that potential are much higher."

Purdue fired Danny Hope before Hazel despite back to back bowl appearances to end his 4 year tenure. Purdue has probably unrealisticly high expectations for their program. Brohm is benefiting from following up Hazel right now, but the long term expectations at Purdue will be equal to Louisville, and he won't have the added cushion of being the home town kid.

"Louisville has to compete against Clemson and FSU within their division. Purdue doesn't have the same obstacles in the B1G West and has a built-in advantage with a permanent crossover with Indiana"

Sure, that's the biggest reason for Brohm to stay. But that says nothing about the quality of the programs as a whole, and I personally don't think is a good enough reason to overcome everything I've said plus going back home to his alma mater.

"Purdue has B1G money to spend and their AD is not in turmoil like Louisville's right now."

Petrino was getting paid around $3.5 mil at Louisville, Brohm is getting paid $3.85 at Purdue. Every Louisville booster will break out the check book for Brohm, money won't keep him at Purdue. Also I don't see why the AD is in turmoil. They have a new full time AD after firing the one who oversaw the Pitino/Petrino era, have a new basketball coach, fired Petrino and no longer have Papa John's involved. If anything their AD is rapidly cleaning house and removing any turmoil that was there.

Leaders And Best

November 11th, 2018 at 3:34 PM ^

"12-1 is 12-1"

This statement is ludicrous. Go look at Cincinnati's football record in the same span of years that you are citing. It's better. Would you argue that Cincinnati is a better football job and program than Louisville or Purdue? You have to account for being in Big East/AAC, especially during the last years of its existence after it had been gutted. Louisville didn't even go 12-1 in the Big East. They went 12-1 in the AAC after losing West Virginia and Pittsburgh.

"Louisville has a Heisman winner at Louisville under Petrino, who we assume is a worse coach than Brohm. Imagine the ceiling with Brohm."

That is a terrible assumption. Petrino was a really good football coach with a track record from winning at Arkansas and his first stint at Louisville. Look at Arkansas post-Petrino. Look at Louisville post-Petrino. Petrino made those programs better, not the other way around. There are theories that his Louisville program may have fallen off during his second stint because he had trouble recruiting after his scandal at Arkansas. But I think to assume that peak Brohm will be better than peak Petrino is not necessarily a given. And Lamar Jackson was once in a generation player. And they still were averaging 5 losses a year. Just because you had a Lamar Jackson doesn't mean you are guaranteed to find another one because of him. Purdue has one of the richest QB traditions in college football with Drew Brees, Bob Griese, Len Dawson, Jim Everett, and Gary Danielson. How does that factor in your analysis?

"How many loses has Purdue averaged in the B1G West in that span, which you acknowledge is a weaker division?"

The B1G West didn't exist until 2014 so there has not been enough time to evaluate how being in the weaker division can help those programs. But it is easy to look at examples like Wisconsin and Northwestern to see how it could benefit them.

"Every Louisville booster will break out the check book for Brohm, money won't keep him at Purdue. Also I don't see why the AD is in turmoil. They have a new full time AD after firing the one who oversaw the Pitino/Petrino era, have a new basketball coach, fired Petrino and no longer have Papa John's involved. If anything their AD is rapidly cleaning house and removing any turmoil that was there."

Papa John is their biggest booster. Losing him may not be a net positive in the long run for the success of their athletic department. Louisville does have a lot of boosters, but Purdue isn't broke either. Their AD has made a significant commitment to the football program with new facilities in the works. Louisville has significant financial commitments to pay off Petrino, Pitino, and Jurich. And Brohm has a lot of young talent secured in Purdue while he will be building with a more challenging roster in Louisville. Does it make sense to spend another 2-3 years of his coaching prime to get his program to where Purdue already is? Maybe coach at Purdue for another 3-4 years and gamble on yourself parlaying that into a top 10 college job or NFL?

Bambi

November 11th, 2018 at 5:40 PM ^

Cincinnati isn't in a P5 conference, so comparing the status of it as a job to 2 P5 programs doesn't make sense. But lets run with it.

They've been a better program over the past decade than Purdue without a doubt, it's ludicrous to say they haven't been. As a reference, Purdue has gone 7-6 against MAC teams since 2008 (Cinci is 15-1 for reference in the same span). Since 2008, Purdue as a program has been as competitive as a mid tier MAC program. Not a good MAC program, a mid tier MAC program. Over the past decade Purdue hasn't played at a level well enough to win the MAC. So yes, even though Cinci's success has come in the Big East/AAC, but they've had some elite seasons in those conferences, both of which are miles better than the MAC. So yes, anyone who watches football would say Cinci has been a better program than Purdue since 2008. Now does that mean they're a better job? No, because Cinci isn't P5 so they have limited upward mobility. But Louisville is in a P5 conference, and had 8 or 9 wins in their first 4 years in that P5 conference. Something Purdue hasn't done since 2007. So yeah, Louisville's a better job than Purdue without a doubt. 

"Petrino made those programs better, not the other way around"

Arkansas cratered after Petrino left. Ask an Arkansas fan if that program was in better shape before he got there vs after he left, I'll give you one guess at the answer. Petrino is 2-8 and made Louisville into one of the worst teams in the nation this year. Having a 4 year burst of success followed by cratering your program means you're probably not a good coach or program builder, hence Petrino getting canned today.

" But I think to assume that peak Brohm will be better than peak Petrino is not necessarily a given. And Lamar Jackson was once in a generation player. And they still were averaging 5 losses a year."

Addressing this point and the rest of the paragraph: I can't tell whether you purposely missed the point or not. Having a history of success at Purdue vs Louisville isn't the point. The point is Louisville has had the type of success in the P5 in the past 4 years to where they've had a Heisman winner. They've won 34 games over 4 years in a P5 conference. Obviously Brohm probably won't develop a Heisman winner if he goes to Louisville. The point is, in recent memory, we've seen elite talent develop at Louisville. We haven't seen that at Purdue in 2 decades. Also the fact that you keep using Louisville "averaging 5 losses a year" as a negative is baffling. Their first 4 years as a P5 school they averaged 8.5 wins per year! That's not a negative, that's a positive! That's a great selling point! Look at TCU their first 2 years when they went P5. Also you can't use that as a negative for Louisville without acknowledging that Purdue has averaged 8+ losses a year in that same time span! How can you logically say that 5 losses is a negative for Louisville and argue that in favor of Purdue when Purdue is miles worse? We've seen Louisville have success to the tune of multiple 9 win seasons in the past 4 years in a P5 conference. We've seen nothing close to that at Purdue over the past decade, and they've been P5 the entire time. It's defies common sense to use that as a positive for Purdue.

"The B1G West didn't exist until 2014 so there has not been enough time to evaluate how being in the weaker division can help those programs. But it is easy to look at examples like Wisconsin and Northwestern to see how it could benefit them."

Wisconsin was winning B1G titles consistently before the West existed so they don't fit at all. And this is year 5 of the West and Purdue still is a mediocre team at best, and that's without Nebraska at an all time low. You can say that's not enough time, and I can say in 5 years Purdue has generally been the cellar dweller of an awful division.

"Their AD has made a significant commitment to the football program with new facilities in the works. Louisville has significant financial commitments to pay off Petrino, Pitino, and Jurich. And Brohm has a lot of young talent secured in Purdue while he will be building with a more challenging roster in Louisville."

Congrats. We know based on last year how shitty Purdue's football facilities are. Wanna know a better pitch than "we are committing money to make our facilities up to par by 2020 (or whatever year they'll be ready"? Louisville's pitch of "we already have state of the art facilities, come here and use them now." If Louisville is going to hire him, clearly the money to pay Petrino/Pitino/Jurich isn't a major factor so why would Brohm care? And all that young talent Brohm has is ostly in the 2019 classes and on and basically all from Louisville (except Karlaftis). It'll be eons easier to convince Louisville talent to stay at home than go to West Lafayette of all places. 

Bambi

November 11th, 2018 at 5:10 PM ^

Straw man argument to the extreme. I never said 12-1 Louisville was a national title level team (or anything about UCF and that), but undefeated is undefeated. UCF is without a doubt a better program right now and in a better spot than a team like Rutgers or Illinois. I never said anything about national titles.

Bambi

November 11th, 2018 at 5:47 PM ^

Straw man argument: "giving the impression of refuting an opponent's argument, while actually refuting an argument that was not presented by that opponent"

I said 12-1 is 12-1, meaning 12-1 is still impressive and more relevant, going 12-1 in the Big East/AAC is massively better than whatever Purdue has been doing in the Big Ten this past decade. I said nothing about that correlating to national title berths or playoff berths. The previous statement I responded too said nothing about winning the ACC vs AAC/Big East or how that relates to playoff berths, it just said that their record is over-inflated.

So yeah, by definition your response was a strawman argument.

chrisu

November 12th, 2018 at 12:33 PM ^

Purdue still has Wisconsin to overcome on a yearly basis (this year's injuries there notwithstanding), Iowa which is usually tough, and the sporadic good year out of Northwestern, in order to make it to the B1G championship game, which his half of the game has never won. In the ACC division Louisville plays in, there is Clemson. Formidable, but an infraction away from being out of the way. All that, plus his alma mater? Not at all unreasonable.