Let's take a look at Defensive FEI...
Others will know much more about this than me, but just looking at the numbers through 10/11. Rutgers will fall after their ass-kicking Saturday.
DEFENSIVE FEI
Appalachian State #126, scored 52
Notre Dame #10, scored 0
Miami, OH #76, scored 34
Utah #3(!), scored 3 (Henry pick-6 was the only TD)
Minnesota #26, scored 14 (Morris start)
Rutgers #23, scored 24
Penn State #5, scored 16 (safety)
Sparty #39
(For reference Michigan is #50)
We’ve played 3 of the top 10 defenses according to FEI. Getting blown up by the first two, managing decently(?) in the third. Perhaps progress?
Looking strictly at these numbers, Sparty will be the sixth best defense we’ve seen this year. We should absolutely expect to score points.
Sparty is #32 overall (with a #36 Offense), hardly a juggernaut. Better than M so far? Absolutely (Michigan is #66, with a #67 Offense, #50 Defense, and horrid #85 Special teams). Intimidating? Shouldn’t be. Will I ask another rhetorical question? Yes. No, not another one. That one before was it. Sparty put up 56 points on Indiana? Who cares, the Hoosiers have the #122 defense. And a not-so-impressive #32 Offense (starting their fifth or sixth string QB due to injury). This is a game Michigan should expect to compete in. If any of this means anything.
Put it all together and get a win in EL.
October 20th, 2014 at 11:29 AM ^
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October 20th, 2014 at 11:36 AM ^
Yup, this has been the problem: State's D is perfectly-suited to giving Michigan trouble. The blitzing alone has been diasterous for Michigan the past few years. Combined with tough run defense, and grabby CBs, and Michigan hasn't had much room to operate.
And after a year with a porous line, Gardner really hates those blitzes. Can't really blame the man . . . .
October 20th, 2014 at 12:31 PM ^
Re: "grabby CBs", I feel like, aside from Funchess occasionally, our WR's don't battle for the ball enough.
Junior Hemingway could teach this crew a thing or two.
October 20th, 2014 at 12:50 PM ^
Speak it, brotha!
October 20th, 2014 at 11:37 AM ^
October 20th, 2014 at 12:04 PM ^
October 20th, 2014 at 12:15 PM ^
We haven't had many illegal motion penalties. Expect that to change when we're in the shotgun. I doubt Staee will stop cheating, but hope the refs make a point of watching for it.
October 20th, 2014 at 11:32 AM ^
This time of year I still trust S&P+ more. It seems to require less additional data points over the course of the season. Here's the various S&P+ defensive ranks:
DEFENSIVE S&P+
- Appalachian State #128, scored 52
- Notre Dame #22, scored 0
- Miami, OH #91, scored 34
- Utah #45, scored 3 (Henry pick-6 was the only TD)
- Minnesota #18, scored 14 (Morris start)
- Rutgers #58, scored 24
- Penn State #13, scored 16 (safety)
- Sparty #11
Bottom line: warts and all, Sparty is the best defense Michigan has faced by at least one metric.
October 20th, 2014 at 12:09 PM ^
Well if you look at how we did at home vs the road vs the better D's we've played...
Home
- Utah - 3
- Minnesota - 14
- Penn State - 16
Away
- Notre Dame - 0
I'd say that doesn't look promising for our prospects in East Lansing. Little reason to believe we'll top 17 points right now unless the D gets a few turnovers
And lets be real too: Hoke's teams in four years have never had a significant road win. I see no reason that changes this weekend
October 20th, 2014 at 12:26 PM ^
Factoring in the road game aspect is huge. Would be curious to see how we've done at home and on the road vs. comparable defenses over the last few years. Like how much worse have then been when facing a level 30'ish defense at home vs on the road.
October 20th, 2014 at 12:37 PM ^
But I assume you watched the Indiana game. Cook is great, no doubt (but comes with blunders). Talking about the D only - insert Sudfeld into that mix, and what do you think happens in that game?
I saw a secondary that looked a step slow (Hicks I think is #2, especially). I saw that freshman safety make a laughable shoulder stab attempt to make a tackle on a long Indiana run. Normally that's not happening with their D. I think Drummond was beat again but the sixth-string QB couldn't connect. Some of that is intended: Sparty D takes those chances because they know most college offenses can't convert. But some of that is not.
They allowed about 200 yards on the ground in the first half, did they not (I may be off on that, but one of the backs was over 100 yards at half)? Sure, big plays, but that's what you have to do against this D. And once they realized the QB was hapless, yeah they shut everything down. Not saying Indiana wouldn't have been curb-stomped regardless. Talking about Sparty's D.
I'm not saying a win. I'm saying M should expect to go in and compete. I would like them to play better than they have and win.
October 20th, 2014 at 12:55 PM ^
In fairness, I appreciate your continued optimism regarding Michigan's chances against Sparty.
In reality:
Indiana has a really good running game (Tevin Coleman has 9 straight 100 yard games going back to last season). And MSU completely shut it down in the second half.
Michigan does not have a good running game and has shown little ability to make positive half time adjustments.
Add in the fact that Dantonio has a hard-on the size of North America for beating Michigan and I just don't see this being a very competitive game.
October 20th, 2014 at 12:41 PM ^
Your metrics are no good cause they mean we'll prolly lose. OP's metrics are much better cause they mean we might win.
Therefore OP metrics win.
October 20th, 2014 at 1:22 PM ^
You do realize this goes both ways, correct? In other words, you casting a snide eye to my listed FEI statistics is just as correctly met with another casting a snide eye toward BISB's? These are advanced metrics (from the same source), both can be questioned, and neither is inherently correct.
In the Defensive S&P that he lists, Michigan is #23. Ahead of Florida State. Do you think our defense is better than Florida State's? It's also better than Oregon's, Ohio State's, and Geogia's.
October 20th, 2014 at 2:17 PM ^
October 21st, 2014 at 12:58 PM ^
As pessemistic as I am about Michigan's chances, this is 11 men against 11 at any given time. A victory is by no means impossible. Most teams play above there heads at least once per year anyway.
October 20th, 2014 at 4:06 PM ^
I really don't care what the FEI and S&P+ ratings are; I've watched both teams, and our offense is going to have a tough time scoring points on MSU.
That said, I agree with BiSB--these metrics aren't really very accurate until the whole season has been played. That's the problem with metrics--they only measure the past.
HOWEVA, I do believe this year's MSU squad is MUCH more beatable than last year's outfit. But I think Vegas has the line about right.
October 20th, 2014 at 11:32 AM ^
Win? Really?
Our special teams play is killing us. We suck at kickoffs and punts on both sides of the ball, and our placekicking game is mediocre at best. Thus, our FEI makes us look better than we are.
October 20th, 2014 at 11:41 AM ^
Yes, I would like us to win. I acknowledge that the data says Sparty is better, but I would like M to put together their best game and win. Is that really HAHAHAH-able, on a Michigan board?
And I'm not sure what you're saying re. our FEI, which really isn't my point anyway. I'm talking about Sparty's. Re. Michigan's, the FEI isn't great - it doesn't make us look "better" or very good. We're just a few notches above negative FEI. But Special Teams are a part of the metric.
October 20th, 2014 at 11:34 AM ^
| Thu, Aug 28 |
|
1-0 (0-0) | |
| Sat, Sept 6 |
|
|
2-0 (0-0) |
| Sat, Sept 13 |
|
|
2-1 (0-1) |
| Sat, Sept 20 |
|
|
3-1 (0-1) |
| Sat, Sept 27 |
|
|
4-1 (0-1) |
| Sat, Oct 4 |
|
|
5-1 (1-1) |
| Sat, Oct 18 |
|
|
5-2 (1-2) |
That's their record (and OSU could have put up 70 easily if they'd wanted to). Are the ~100 defenses below Rugers all terrible?
October 20th, 2014 at 11:34 AM ^
We'll score points. I expect us to put up 3
October 20th, 2014 at 12:10 PM ^
October 20th, 2014 at 1:58 PM ^
I needed a good laugh today.
October 20th, 2014 at 11:38 AM ^
October 20th, 2014 at 11:43 AM ^
You're out of your element
October 20th, 2014 at 11:51 AM ^
You got no frame of reference.
October 20th, 2014 at 11:55 AM ^
of your element
October 20th, 2014 at 1:07 PM ^
living in a bravado-filled fantasy world where Michigan can do no wrong. Gone are the days of 'little brother" crap and we own the world. This program is a mess and if you look at the reality of the season this game should be an epic beating. Michigan has scored just 6 offensive touchdowns in the last five games. Even if we double that output, 14 points isn't going to beat anyone left on the schedule. certainly not MSU. They are the better team, have a much better coach and they have an attitude this program lacks, an absolute hatred for their rivals. They treat this game as their Super Bowl and act like it on the field. Lately, we just show up. Not gonna work any more.
October 20th, 2014 at 11:38 AM ^
Its also worth noting that six of Michigan's points against PSU came when the offense got the ball in PSU territory, and another 7 came when PSU practically gifted a 43 yard TD.
Offense gets credit for those, but some massive caveats apply.
October 20th, 2014 at 11:38 AM ^
October 20th, 2014 at 12:11 PM ^
October 20th, 2014 at 12:27 PM ^
The "anything can happen" rivalry game mantra should be dead after last season.
October 20th, 2014 at 12:58 PM ^
We did almost beat OSU last year and with offense(!).
If our defense played like they had to that point in the year we win that game. Of course we didn't and a main reason they did so poorly was OSU's beastly offense.
Don't think anybody expected us to lose by one point in that fashion.
That Sparty game was woof though I agree.
October 20th, 2014 at 2:12 PM ^
Ohio State was at home though. If MSU was a home game, I'd buy into the anything can happen thing a little more since those kinds of flukey wins (BTW...I love that we're to the point where a win over MSU is considered a fluke) tend to happen at home.
And we still lost to Ohio State, so the anything that can happen in that game turned out to be the most probable thing that could happen -- a loss.
October 20th, 2014 at 2:27 PM ^
The truth is, ever since Dantonio came on board, MSU approaches this game with a mad fury. For them this isn't a rivalry, it is a sacrifice.
Michigan's only chance is if they can play 60 minutes unleashed like a pack of mad dogs. (Thank you Lawrence Taylor).
October 20th, 2014 at 11:39 AM ^
We can try and make cases for an upset all we want. Its not going to happen.
MSU's defense is not as good as it was last year (thus far). Their offense is better than it was last year.
Michigan's offense is as bad or worse than it was last year. The defense is only slightly better than it was last year.
People can look at the numbers and think our defense has been great, but its not true. They put a terrible Penn State offense away and "shut down" a Utah team that led by at least 10 points for the last 28:30 of the game.
Notre Dame went up 28-0 and pretty much stopped trying. That is the only reason they were held to under 300 yards. Minnesota and Rutgers both put up big numbers relative to who they are. (Appy State and Miami aren't worth discussing)
Our offense has looked impressive in exactly one game: Appalachian State. Against Miami, it took three quarters for Michigan to safely put a horrible team out of reach.
Outside of "Its a rivalry game! Anything can happen!" there is no reason to think that Michigan should win this game. Its a road game (Hoke's teams have been abysmal on the road), Dantonio is a far superior coach and Michigan is worse than MSU is all three facets of the game.
But at least our recruits have a bunch of shiny 4 and 5 stars by their names.
October 20th, 2014 at 11:58 AM ^
Correct me if I'm wrong but doesn't FEI take into account that teams "stop trying" when they are winning in a blowout?
October 20th, 2014 at 12:02 PM ^
I have no idea. I don't dispute what the FEI numbers say, I just dispute the idea that Michigan is somehow going into East Lansing with a fighting chance. If they spit out that conclusion, then they are highly questionable.
October 20th, 2014 at 12:04 PM ^
Well yeah. I can't really argue. Mainly because I think that our coaching staff is the 3 stooges compared to MSU's coaching staff.
October 20th, 2014 at 11:41 AM ^
Now is the time MIchigan is going to unviel the tempo and play just as fast as Indiana!
October 20th, 2014 at 12:02 PM ^
but I doubt Hoke and his staff will do anything to make that happen.
This team needs to play max protect on offense. The O-line is atrocious. But at the same time no one on MSU's defense can counter the Devin's size and athleticism.
Make it a two or a three man on offense (and while they're at it, move the pocket) and Michigan could make it interesting if the defense steps up.
and if you don't think it will work, IIRC this is what MSU did back in 2010 when they went 11-2
October 20th, 2014 at 12:31 PM ^
Michigan doesn't have the weapons to go max protect and expect to do anything. If they cram 9 guys back there to protect Gardner and leave Funchess and someone else on the outside, MSU has the secondary to shut those guys down. So you'd wind up with Gardner looking around, finding nothing, and either forcing a throw that probably gets picked, or he gets sacked.
October 20th, 2014 at 2:30 PM ^
So essentially the exact same thing as if they were to go 5 wide; got it.
October 20th, 2014 at 5:21 PM ^
but it's not like it was last year. If they have nine guys in the box, I still think Funchess would have the upper hand.
But at this stage of the game, it's not like anything has worked up until now, why not give it a shot?
October 20th, 2014 at 12:04 PM ^
Which team plays with a chip on its shoulder in this game year in and year out? It's certainly not Michigan. While they seem to be playing with more fire and emotionalism since the 4th quarter against Rutgers this team still does not play like an underdog. Until they get that mentality they will not play with the same chip that MSU plays with.
Not to mention we haven't scored a TD against them since 2011, I do believe Dantonio and Co. would love to keep that record going. I look for them to be very physical against Michigan, can our team play that type of ball? Probably not.
Other than Oregon no one has scored more than 35 on them since 2010, our offense this season has struggled against cream puffs do you seriously think that all of the sudden they can put up points against a good defense? Last years defense was out of this world, just because this years isn't as good doesn't mean they're not still good because they are. They held Oregon in check until they got gassed. Meanwhile Michigan's offense is painfully slow to get a play off, I doubt they get gassed.
October 20th, 2014 at 12:34 PM ^
Due to the built in institutional arrogance, I wonder if Michigan can even play the underdog card. The whole "this is Michigan fergodsakes" and "leaders and best" doesn't really work with a "no one believe in us" mindset.
October 20th, 2014 at 12:07 PM ^
October 20th, 2014 at 12:40 PM ^
though in my head I was thinking "What if the only reason the defenses Michigan has played are so good....is because they've played Michigan". Would work for either.