It’s 2017 again

Submitted by TK on October 7th, 2019 at 3:07 PM

I can’t believe how similar this feels to 2 years ago. 2 years ago everyone wanted Speight out and Okorn was worse. We went to him out of necessity because of injury, but it’s still similar. Speight was fine the year before, just like Shea was fine last year. Both regressed. I guess I’m just hesitant to go with McCaffrey because things could get worse. But despite the offensive problems, we probably should have still beat MSU, and with a healthy Speight had a good shot to beat OSU at home. MSU looks really similar to 2017 also. Not great, but eeked out 10 wins. 

I would start Shea at Illinois and if the offense looks stagnant after a half, go with McCaffrey and see what happens. Shea was the #2 rated passer in the conference last year so the ability is there somewhere. I don’t want McCaffrey starting his first game on the PSU stage with nothing but mop up time, so I would roll the dice with Shea for at least one more attempt. Agree or disagree?

TrueBlue2003

October 7th, 2019 at 4:45 PM ^

Exactly. And what will it mean if he tears up Illinois?  We've seen that story too many times.  Guy destroys terrible teams when he has all day and knows he's going to have all day, is terrible against defenses with a pulse.

If McCaffrey is healthy, he has to be the starter against Illinois as his "warm-up" for PSU.

I'm even to the point where it seems like Milton should potentially be getting cracks at this thing, even if McCaffrey isn't healthy and I've been pretty skeptical of Milton.

MgoBlueprint

October 7th, 2019 at 5:53 PM ^

I’m surprised Milton doesn’t get mentioned more often. I don’t really get it. McCafferty seemed like the no brainer heir apparent last year. Hell, he even played better than Shea in South Bend last year.

He hasn’t wowed me with his limited snaps this year like he did last year. It may have to do with Gattis running him most of the time.

Big Joe Milton looks like he has the biggest upside. He has a canon of an arm he even has some decent wiggle for a pocket passer. He threw the pick against Wisconsin, but he seemed way more crisp than Shea. Unless I’m missing something, Joe seems more than capable.
 

Why not let Dylan and Joe fight it out in Champaign.

colonel

October 7th, 2019 at 8:11 PM ^

Long-time reader, first time poster here... I'm with you MgoBlueprint. I also don't understand why Milton does not get more buzz. He's thrown some bad picks, but whatever, the dude has huge talent. Shea is a small-ish guy and a decent physical talent. He also makes terrible mistakes. If I were an opposing team, I would have absolutely no fear of Shea Patterson, banged up or not. I'd feel differently about Milton. He has the arm to put the ball over the top from almost any position in the backfield. And you can tell on the sidelines that he's got a great positive energy about himself (and swag to burn). He had his helmet strapped up and was moving with the offensive huddle the entire game on Saturday. He was ready to go in. 

So McCaffrey is out with a concussion. I think it's Milton time. I think he's a gamer. Obviously the coaches see these guys every day, and I don't, so I don't know shit. But jesus, Saturday was awful. I'd like to see us mix things up.

Durham Blue

October 8th, 2019 at 12:50 AM ^

I am not opposed to starting either DCaff or Milton.  We will most definitely see more INT's with Milton than the others.  And his short pass touch is lacking.  But teams will respect his throwing velocity and likely back off the safeties perhaps freeing the running game up a bit.  And Milton does have some speed so they need to respect the keeper as well.  And he has the size to break an arm tackle.

All that said, I'm sure Patterson will start at Illinois.

colonel

October 8th, 2019 at 11:15 AM ^

I think you're exactly right about what Milton's presence could do to an opposing safety. With him in the game, a defense has to respect the fact that he could find one of our wide-outs deep if he has too much time to throw or is able to escape the pocket. Shea is known to improvise, but when, if ever, has he gone deep off a scramble? When has he ever thrown a deep ball in rhythm? 

But yeah, Shea is going to start barring an injury or another Wisconsin-level catastrophe (which looks highly plausible in a couple weeks). He clearly stayed in the game this past Saturday because we had the lead, and it's hard to argue with that decision. Alas.

 

MadMatt

October 7th, 2019 at 9:16 PM ^

If I could add my thoughts (assuming anyone cares), I'm willing to give Shea the benefit of the doubt on the passing offense. We talked ourselves into sky high expectations for the passing game: "three NFL receivers," "an O-line that's experienced and one of the best in the country," "Shea will be a dark horse Heisman candidate," UNLEASHED! The reality is the O-line's pass protection has been inconsistent, the receivers have at times run sloppy routes and dropped well thrown passes, and the play selection has been curious. Yes, Shea has contributed miscues too, but it's not like replacing him will fix even half the problems.

My main concern is the rushing attack. We junked a perfectly serviceable, if stoggy, rushing offense for the new-fangled read option attack. There are trade-offs for that, and you have to actually read a defender to have enough blockers for all the others. Right now Shae won't frickin' pull when that's the read staring him in the face! If he won't actually run the running offense, it makes establishing the run kinda tough, and does you no favors when you chose to pass.

If McCaffrey is ready to go, I'd be inclined to give him and Shea one half each of the Illinois game. Then, make your decision about who starts against Penn State. One of my criteria would be who makes the better reads on the read option run plays.

colonel

October 7th, 2019 at 9:28 PM ^

These are really strong points. The issues with the read-option plays seem to be killer. This blog has thoroughly documented the struggle of the run game without the QB keep, and I think you're right to bring it up again. Still, assuming he can start pulling the ball again, I have a hard time seeing the upside of Shea's game right now. His pocket presence is so poor, not to mention the timing of his throws is often off. 

Anyway, my argument is perhaps more emotional than anything. It seems obvious that Milton has the most talent of the QBs on the roster, and it hurts to see him ride pine while the starter struggles so much. Seems like the offense could be so explosive with him hucking it downfield (assuming he'd have some kind of green light). The apocryphal analogy would be to Brady and Henson, if not Wilton and O'Korn and Peters, and obviously no young guys prevailed in those situations. But still, I like Milton, and I want to see him make it happen.

Bill22

October 8th, 2019 at 1:22 AM ^

You could argue the Milton TD pass to Giles Jackson against Rutgers was the most impressive pass of the season, from any of our QBs.

Bottom line, the poor decision making and happy feet with Shea is getting old.  I have no doubt Milton would make some bad decisions as well, but I think he would learn from them.  Also, the upside potential and positive impact to the offense as a whole could be huge.

colonel

October 8th, 2019 at 11:24 AM ^

My thoughts exactly. Milton's potential seems too great for him to ride the bench when the starter is stinking it up. Garbage time against Rutgers comes with a huge grain of salt, but Milton looked really good in there. I want to see him get real first-string game action.

mGrowOld

October 7th, 2019 at 3:14 PM ^

As crappy as it was I could deal with 2017 all over again.

My fear is we're staring straight down the barrel of 2014 again in more ways than one.

GoBLUE_SemperFi

October 7th, 2019 at 3:32 PM ^

That Northwestern team was 3-5 (Michigan was 4-5).  To suggest that the Michigan game against a top 15 ranked, undefeated Iowa team was "similar"...or that this 2019 team is similar to 2014, is beyond an exaggeration, bordering on asinine.

I get it, the team isn't performing the way that you expected, but my goodness.

TrueBlue2003

October 7th, 2019 at 5:53 PM ^

This would be a much better analogy.  Lot of returning starters on offense that underperformed and sputtered to an 8-4 finish partially due to a change in offensive scheme and structure by a bad OC.

Anyone talking about 2014 or 2017 forgets how terrible those offensive lines were.

bronxblue

October 7th, 2019 at 3:41 PM ^

The 2014 team at no point looked remotely as competent as this team on either side of the ball.

Yes, it sucks to see a team people expected to be awesome (seemingly mostly based on hope and an amorphous idea about returning talent) and they aren't.  But if you think this team's future looks anything like 2014 under Brady Hoke, I don't think we're looking at the same thing.

mGrowOld

October 7th, 2019 at 3:48 PM ^

I dont think that.  I said I FEAR that (big difference). 

I think they're going to end up 9-3 with wins over MSU, ND, Illinois, Maryland & Indiana.  Losses to PSU & OSU.  That's my official prediction and I'm sticking with it.

But i fear if the offense doesnt get its head of its collective ass we could be looking at 7-5 with only wins over Illinois and Maryland remaining on the schedule.

Late Bluemer

October 7th, 2019 at 3:15 PM ^

It’s not quite that bad on o line (at least not 2017 bad).  Running game not great but at least our qb is not running for his life every play.  

Expected more out of Ruiz and bredenson.  At least we shouldnt have to worry about Ruiz leaving early to the nfl next year. 

The Mad Hatter

October 7th, 2019 at 3:16 PM ^

Speight regressed because he didn't see eye to eye with Pep, and I think the injury from 2016 lingered.

Same situation with Gattis and Shea?  Or did Shea really spend the summer golfing instead of learning the new offense?

Odd that we have a senior, returning starter, QB that wasn't voted to be a captain.

 

mGrowOld

October 7th, 2019 at 3:31 PM ^

Players know who deserves to be a captain and who doesnt. Xtramelanin posted a few "interesting" reasons why he heard Shea wasnt voted to be a captain a few weeks ago.  He NEVER posts rumor or innuendo and I know he's still connected to the athletic department so his words carry great weight with me.

Suffice to say if true, Shea didnt deserve to be made a captain and what you're seeing on the field this year is no surprise to some.

bronxblue

October 7th, 2019 at 3:46 PM ^

People keep bringing up the captain thing as if it means anything.  Go back and look at who was named captain over the years and I guess we can safely deduce that a ton of guys (including QBs) were poor leaders.

I'm not sure if Shea Patterson is going to work out at QB and maybe he really did phone in the offseason.  If so, that's disappointing.  But this constant desire here to character assassinate a guy because he's not throwing the ball well astounds me. 

Phaedrus

October 7th, 2019 at 8:15 PM ^

While I don’t believe in the criticism lodged at the program by people like Braylon, who say that our athletes are too affluent and entitled, I do think that criticism can be specifically applied to Shea. The golf statement by Gattis said it all. Given the year he had last year, if he had any self awareness and hoped to get into the NFL, he would have never left Gattis alone. He would have spent all his time studying film and the playbook. Shea needed a sense of desperation in the offseason but instead he waited until he was in the pocket. Great players—especially those with physical limitations (e.g. Brady)—succeed by outworking the competition during down time. 

gremlin

October 7th, 2019 at 3:17 PM ^

I am of the opinion that we cannot be OSU with Shea.  As in zero percent.  Factually probably not true, but chances are probably very slim regardless.  

With Dylan and a few games under his belt, I feel like we would have a chance for two reasons.  1) Can stand in the pockets that our o-line is creating and 2) willingness to run.  

And Dylan will be back next year.  Shea won't.