Futurecast: How/Will Michigan Make Big Ten Title Games
Been incredibly frustrating to watch the rivals, mainly Ohio State, win the B10 year in and year out. The Big Ten has gotten bigger but also incredibly predictable. Ohio and Wisconsin essentially dominate as evidenced by 5 title game appearances by Wisconsin and 4 by Ohio. Better then 50% rates. As pointed out here ad nauseam the divisional alignments and scheduling have really hurt U-M while others seem to skate by. This is what is killing our fan base. We have to run the gauntlet but Penn State doesn't even play Wisconsin until 2021. Then they have to open the season in Madison.
I guess the question for the board is: will a big ten east champ ever get in with 2 losses in conference or is it really just impossible, going forward to see Ohio ever "falling" to 10-2 or 9-3 type years? And then the follow up: at what point does the big ten crapola divisional experiment break? After 4 of 5 years or 7 of 8 being osu vs Wisconsin by way of fluke scheduling and divisional imbalance...would that be a breaking point for Michigan, others?
And why aren't the prior year's champs REQUIRED to play one another in the regular season, both for fan interest but for some semblance of competitive balance?
October 20th, 2019 at 9:54 PM ^
We won’t
October 20th, 2019 at 10:17 PM ^
The OSU AD was in charge of scheduling when we went to the East-West format. He set it up so our initial 6-year crossover was Wisconsin. Brandon was, as usual, asleep at the switch and let it happen.
October 20th, 2019 at 10:31 PM ^
As bad as playing back to back years in East Lansing
October 20th, 2019 at 11:15 PM ^
That still pisses me off. If Bo or Canham were alive the Big Ten would have faced a massive media shitstorm.
October 20th, 2019 at 11:51 PM ^
That probably would've happened regardless. We didn't play Wisconsin in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, or 2015. We were due.
The bigger problem is that OSU got the perfect home/away split within the East. They either get their #1 most important game at home (Michigan) or both their #2 and #3 (PSU and MSU).
October 20th, 2019 at 9:57 PM ^
Maybe in 2020 for UM, but nobody is stopping OSU this season.
October 20th, 2019 at 10:13 PM ^
The scary thing is, barring injuries or some other unlikely misahp, Ohio State will be better next year than this year.
October 20th, 2019 at 10:18 PM ^
Yep. Will have returning QB. Likely be #1 in nation or top 3. Hyped all off-season. Don't have to play Wisconsin (how nice!!!). Don't have really any tests except at Penn state. They are truly becoming Clemson and the rest of us are the ACC, fighting for scraps.
The idiocy of the system (4 teams only in playoff) and the idiocy of big ten divisions really creates this crap.
October 20th, 2019 at 11:55 PM ^
The good news is they finally have an actual non-conference game. Going to Oregon to play at Autzen early in the year. Hopefully the Ducks will knock them off to remove their margin for error and then they trip up somewhere along the way in the Big Ten to keep them out of the playoff.
October 21st, 2019 at 10:00 PM ^
They can actually win big road games...
October 20th, 2019 at 9:57 PM ^
Give it up! There's no chance winning the B1G this season. Though we could still beat ND, MSU and OSU at home. That should be the teams goals now. Lets try to keep this a 9-3 record.
October 20th, 2019 at 10:01 PM ^
...and a bowl win to build momentum for 2020.
October 20th, 2019 at 10:09 PM ^
I'd settle for bowl participation
October 20th, 2019 at 10:09 PM ^
Definitely given up for this season. The question is, looking forward 2-3,4, 5 years... Is there truly any hope? I note both Ohio and Penn state miss Wisconsin in 2020. That's garbage. This conference is Ohio state and everybody else and the shit scheduling exacerbates it.
If we are looking at 7 of 8 big ten championships being just Wisconsin vs Ohio state replays...at what point do member institutions ask for a redo or revamp on this crap conference?
October 21st, 2019 at 8:25 AM ^
Real simple: beat OSU more than 1 time in 15 years and we might get to a B1G championship game for the first time EVER. Instead, many fans (on this thread) want to point to scheduling and hoping other teams can take OSU down for us SINCE WE CAN'T DO IT ? BS
They make these schedules out a few years in advance and try to rotate opponents fairly since it's really impossible to know who's going to be the king of the hill that far in advance. Before the year, many had Nebraska as the possible West champ and keep in mind, Northwestern was the defending West champ. Both just fell flat on their faces this year and shit the bed. Many viewed OSU's crossover schedule as tough this year - they play(ed) all 3: Northwestern, Nebraska, and Wisconsin.
And for the scheduling whiners out there, let this sink in: UM has not won a B1G championship since 2004 - that's 15 years. Don't think that has a lot to do with scheduling.
October 21st, 2019 at 8:57 AM ^
The big ten west is garbage. Has been since inception. Name one year you honestly thought it was competitive or would produce a worthy contender? Name 1!
The divisions need to be scrapped. It isn't whining to point out the competive imbalance and scheduling garbage that hurts our program.
October 21st, 2019 at 9:38 AM ^
I'm not saying that the B1G West isn't inferior to the East - it is. My point is it's not scheduling that's hurting Michigan. It's UM's inability to beat OSU and in many cases MSU and PSU. Note that the B1G East champ has totally dominated the B1G championship game winning like 5 or 6 in a row -OSU, PSU, and MSU all winning the championship. Hmmmm - I wonder what name is missing there. The divisions and scheduling sure doesn't seem to be affecting MSU and PSU like us. But damn it - everybody is picking on us.
You're stating that the scheduling garbage and divisions hurt us. What's your excuse for our garbage run from 2004 to when the B1G divisions were created in 2013 or 2014 (without looking it up). Enough of the BS excuses. It's 2019 and yet another year without a B1G championship. Especially when we were preseason B1G favorites. Sure expected more out of $8 million.
October 21st, 2019 at 12:37 PM ^
The big ten went to divisions and a championship game in 2011. Going on 9 years. Keep in mind, MSU only went one year because BOTH osu and Penn state were under probation. Scum programs that they were. OSU would have gone that year. Believe they went 12-0.
So basically looking ahead... After 10 years (projecting 2020)... In one decade of the championship scam set up, Ohio state will have been to 6 of 10 (and wouldve been 7) and Wisconsin likely 6 of 10 if not 7 of 10!
So at what point do we, the fans, and our idiot ADs realize that this setup isn't working and that it only serves to enrich 2 member institutions?
October 21st, 2019 at 3:21 PM ^
At what point ? Try beating those programs on the field !!!!! 14 out of 15 to OSU - give me a break. Mighty Michigan - the winningest program in history. Maybe, just maybe, those schools are fielding a far better product. Ever think of that ? Oh wait, more excuses !
October 22nd, 2019 at 8:36 AM ^
Penn State opens 2021 at MADISON. Ever see Ohio State given that test? When was the last time Ohio played in Madison? Not the past season, not this season. And I believe they miss then next year.
There are basically 5 top level home stadiums in the big ten that really make it hard to win. Madison, kinnick, Michigan, happy valley and Ohio state. That's it. Maybe throw east Lansing in there but that is fading.
Ohio state faces THE PATH of LEAST RESISTANCE. Almost every year. This is irrefutable.
October 21st, 2019 at 11:48 AM ^
I know it's very unlikely, but if Sparty beats the Pedo's and Bucky beats Brutus this weekend then there is a chance.
October 20th, 2019 at 10:18 PM ^
In my lifetime? No, and I’m only in my mid 20s
October 21st, 2019 at 6:58 AM ^
Dark humor. . . . Doctor told me that I had 2-5 years to live 3 years ago. But then I got a pacemaker so maybe I will see it in my lifetime. Yeah, I got more important things on my mind at my age. I hope to see everyone at the game on Saturday. Go Blue!
October 20th, 2019 at 10:37 PM ^
This season, OSU drew Wisky (preseason fave), Nebraska (media darling fave) and Northwestern (West defending champ). It seemed to me in preseason, that was a challenging draw. However, Nebraska has proven that Frost has a much bigger rebuild project ahead and NW has fallen off the proverbial cliff. So its not easy to predict. OSU did draw PSU/Mich to finish the season, a challenging draw.
For Michigan to make the B10 title game, I believe a Division realignment could help with Mich and OSU split. But I imagine that Mich/OSU would be a fixed crossover game every year and MSU would follow Mich in the split. So in that scenario, you would lose PSU (half the time I imagine) but get Wisky every year. Thats still a real tough draw.
Also, if the realignment happens, is The Game kept on the final weekend? If so, Mich/OSU could play back-to-back weekends in some seasons? That's not fair to either team.
October 20th, 2019 at 10:58 PM ^
We are now playing for a bowl game in Florida , so lets just hope that we can beat ND and MSU
October 20th, 2019 at 11:59 PM ^
Unless we win out and sniff the Orange Bowl, we're only eligible for Taxslayer which is low in the pecking order/wouldn't be a probable spot.
We will likely go to San Diego for the Holiday Bowl and face the #3 team in the PAC 12 (probably Utah, USC or Washington).
The bowl scenario as it stands (most likely in each case):
- Win out to get to 10-2 lands us in the NY6 either in Cotton (Dallas) or Orange (Miami)
- 9-3 or 8-4 Holiday Bowl (San Diego)
- 7-5 either Pinstripe Bowl (New York City) or Redbox Bowl (San Francisco)
- 6-6 Quick Lane Bowl (Detroit)
October 21st, 2019 at 5:17 AM ^
I'm not going to 'hope' Michigan will beat Notre Dame.
But they're going to beat State.
October 20th, 2019 at 11:04 PM ^
Go 6-0 in the division, and you're not guaranteed a bid to Indianapolis, but it requires only going 2-1 against the other division to guarantee that bid.
There have been 8 teams in the 2014-2018 era that went 6-0 in their division. They all have played in the Title Game in Indianapolis.
The teams that went to Indianapolis without going 6-0 in their division in that era were 2014 Wisconsin and 2016 Penn State.
Those schools went 5-1 in their division and then swept their games against the other division.
That's the basic recipe. (1) Win them all in your division. (2) If you do drop one in your division, at least sweep the other division, and then you may have a chance.
It's very tough to go 6-0 vs. the B1G East. But that's the best way to get to Indianapolis. Always will be.
October 21st, 2019 at 10:00 AM ^
So what you're saying is beat your main rivals and get rewarded ? Imagine that !!!
October 21st, 2019 at 12:53 PM ^
Penn State BACKED IN to their lone B10 championship game appearance. They had zero reason to be there. They weren't better then Michigan or Ohio state that season.
You should agree with (majority of us) about the need to scrap this idiotic divisional set up and scheduling. It hurts Penn state as well. Basically shuts them out of ever competing for national relevance.
In 2021 the Lions open AT MADISON. How's that gonna work out? Ever see Ohio state opening a season AT MADISON or AT EAST LANSING?
October 22nd, 2019 at 12:19 PM ^
PSU didn't "back in" to the 2016 Big Ten Championship game.
They beat OSU, getting the head to head tie-breaker over them when they both finished 8-1 in the conference.
Would PSU have beaten OSU 100% of the times they played, of course not. But you only get one shot so you should make it count and PSU did.
Michigan after blowing out PSU in September mucked around and lost to a crappy 5-4 Iowa team and then came an inch short of beating OSU.
October 21st, 2019 at 12:13 AM ^
Yeah, college football conferences can pretty much do whatever they want with game scheduling. Sometimes it seems designed to benefit their preferred teams for the playoff.
The SEC seldom schedules Alabama and Georgia to play against one another during the regular season. They claim it's because of the permanent and rotating opponent rule.
Though it often conveniently helps the SEC's chances of having a playoff team and maybe two.
It's totally unfair how some SEC teams have to play both Alabama and Georgia, but those two teams hardly ever play one another in the regular season.
Though the other SEC teams know not to say anything about it.
October 21st, 2019 at 12:53 AM ^
It is bizarre. Alabama schedules like they're terrified of losing to just about anyone. Kentucky, Missouri, Vanderbilt, South Carolina are the four SEC East teams they've played, other than Tennessee annually, for the past four years. And that's the conference slate; Bama's ooc schedules are typically pathetic. This, among other things, is how you reach the playoff unscathed every year.
October 21st, 2019 at 1:47 AM ^
Alabama schedules a tomato can ooc to be played in Jerry World or other neutral site in the south. It’s only tough games are LSU, Auburn, and UGA in the SEC title game. Essentially a 3 game season.
October 21st, 2019 at 12:30 PM ^
Why does anyone put up with it? Why do we put up with this big ten crap?
After a decade passes with a big ten championship game...and that game features Ohio state 6 of 10 and Wisconsin 7 of 10... What is the point? What are the member schools playing for? Bottom feeder status?
October 21st, 2019 at 12:45 AM ^
It looks like at least two really good opponents will have to just shit themselves when playing Michigan, one of them being OSU, to put Michigan into a conference title game in any given year. It's too late for that this year, but maybe 2021.
October 21st, 2019 at 1:00 AM ^
OSU loses a lot of talent after this year. So 2020 should be more wide open than this year.
Frankly, I believe PSU will be the 2020 favorite. They have a very young squad this year. They won't lose much. They get OSU at home but have UM in AA. Advantage Michigan.
October 21st, 2019 at 8:56 AM ^
Can’t tell if serious? Osu will arguably be more talented next year...
October 21st, 2019 at 9:21 AM ^
Not likely but OSU could potentially lose 21 of their 22 starters this season to graduation or the draft as early entrants, I would say the actual number would be closer to 16 or 17
October 21st, 2019 at 10:32 AM ^
We say this every year about OSU. I think losing stars to the NFL actually works out well for recruiting monsters like Bama and OSU. HS kids see this and want to play there. Their depth is incredible. Their defensive starters will get gutted this year by the NFL but they're constantly bringing in players like Tyreke Smith, Zach Harrison (ugh), Tyler Friday and Cam Brown that would start for any other B1G team. They play a ton of players
Then throw in their 2020 class which will finish in the top 3 and their 2021 class is shaping up as a total monster - maybe in the top 2 or 3 in OSU history.
My point: don't lock in on how many starters teams like Bama, OSU, and even Georgia now are losing. They have just as capable backups with plenty of experience to take over. Happens every year. And with the transfer portal as it is today, many star transfers will want to play for teams like these that flood the NFL with players.
October 21st, 2019 at 12:00 PM ^
Most people realize 85% of our team and probably 95% of the defense wouldn’t get playing time at osu right? Maybe not even second string...
October 21st, 2019 at 11:57 AM ^
Have you seen their recruiting classes/roster?
October 21st, 2019 at 5:38 PM ^
Exactly right. Many just don't want to face reality. Jesus, they replaced 4 OL starters this year (a couple in the NFL) and many on their sites and followers are claiming this is their best OL in 10 to 15 years. They have probably their strongest group of DL in years waiting in the wings for next year all getting experience this year: Zach Harrison, Tyreke Smith, Tyler Friday, Jean-Baptiste, Tommy Togiai…..many think this group will make them forget the Bosas, Chase Young, Dre mont Jones.....Master Teague is the next great OSU RB just tearing it up this year behind Dobbins. On and On and On. My point: it's not the crooked B1G schedule makers that's hurting us - it's the product and coaching.
And I've concentrated on OSU cause they're obviously king of the hill, but PSU isn't exactly sisters of the poor when it comes to talent. Although not at OSU's level, they've put together some very solid classes in their own right, They also have some top notch talent waiting in the wings.
I guess I'm still pissed about Saturday night but the one play that really set me and a few other UM fans off that were watching the game with me was motor mouth (Mr Revenge) Metellus chasing Hamler for that loooong TD. Why can't we just SHUT UP and let our play do the talking for a change ?
October 21st, 2019 at 6:45 PM ^
Because "we're michigan" and everyone is against us and conspiracies abound against our program. Its not that the program is actually terrible...come on get with the program...
October 21st, 2019 at 5:14 AM ^
Oh. There's people still thinking Michigan can get into the BIG10 Championship this year.
October 21st, 2019 at 6:09 AM ^
It’s a > 0 chance. Here’s my made up odds based on semi reasonable assumptions.
uofm wins out. 9%.
Osu loses before Uofm 30%
PSU loses twice 50%.
All 3 need to happen. And it could.
October 21st, 2019 at 7:02 AM ^
Seems reasonable. Does PSU lose twice more after OSU? PSU has tie breaker over M
October 21st, 2019 at 11:30 AM ^
Yep, plain and simple, PSU needs to lose 3 B1G games now with the head-to-head tie breaker
October 21st, 2019 at 12:13 PM ^
If it’s a 3 way tie head to head won’t push psu ahead. Although maybe osu needs to beat psu.
So basically if Wisconsin beats osu this weekend, this becomes semi realistic.