Final 2020-2021 Kenpom rankings
Michigan finished #3. Not bad, all things considered.
Illinois is gonna be pissed.
Yeah, I can sense the strongly worded letter being written to Mr. Pomeroy himself right now, insisting that Illinois be allowed to either share the #3 position or swap spots with Michigan altogether.
A: "Illinois has more wins than Michigan - proving that they should be ahead."
B: "Yes, but they also have more (and worse) los... "
A: "CLEARLY PROVING THEY SHOULD BE RANKED AHEAD!!"
and of course Illinois went further in the NCAA tournament than Michi....oh, never mind, but we should be at least tied for third!!!
I love a good roast in the morning. Best part of waking up is IL roast and a cup.
What about Loyola???
Don't worry. Anthony Wright already got those co-national champion rings made up for them
Illinois is officially out of control pic.twitter.com/xs11wQyCUQ
— ᗩᑎT ᗯᖇIGᕼT (@itsAntWright) April 6, 2021
It was one outstanding season for this team and this staff. For much of the time, technically, they played the game, nearly, to perfection. To this fan of this game they were a joy to watch. Incredible coaching!
Um, Gonzaga finished #1. That's . . . incorrect.
Per the quantitative metrics in Ken Pomeroy's method... it is correct.
Ken doesn’t know
The gap with Baylor is small. Kenpom can't take covid into account. Baylor would probably be number 1 if you took out that post-covid lull they had. It was about an 8 point difference before the title game. So they closed most of that gap with their easy win.
His formula did not value the Big 12 as much as other people did. The three 3 seeds, WV, Kansas, and Texas, were in his mid-20s. He doesn’t value Baylor’s victories over them as much, leaving Illinois, Houston and Gonzaga as their signature wins. Factor in Baylor’s losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State and I can see how over a full season, he has Gonzaga in front even though Baylor was clearly better on one day.
His formula also has nothing to do with wins and losses
I agree it is weird that Gonzaga was still ranked first. I suspect the limited non-conference schedule messed with the ability to rate teams across conferences. Since Gonzaga beat the living sh*t out of their conference, that artificially boosted them when in reality, that conference was a lot weaker than the computers assessed them at.
I mean, Gonzaga also beat Kansas, Auburn, Iowa and Virginia by 10+ with another win over West Virginia in non-conference, then trashed Oklahoma, Creighton and USC in the tourney. So they dominated everyone but UCLA and then the loss to Baylor. They crushed their conference, but they also crushed pretty much everyone else as well.
By my count, Gonzaga was 10-1 against the Kenpom top 27 (which is all that was listed here), with only two of those wins by less than double digits. Was their conference schedule garbage? Sure, but they handily beat a lot of really good teams. Even though Gonzaga didn't play like it last night, those were the two best teams in college basketball this year.
lost lots of $ this year on Kenpom... guy doesn't know anything special
Maybe this is famed internet troll KenM instead of Kenpom
Congrats to Gonzaga for winning the Kenpom National Championship! Well done gentleman.
Congrats to Gonzaga for winning the Kenpom National Championship! Well done gentleman.
How can The Oral Roberts University not be ranked ahead of The Ohio State University???
*An Ohio State University
I am over Gonzaga. They've figured out how to game the system - play a handful of tough(-ish) nonconference games in December and then run up the score for two months on hapless WCC opposition - but I'm not buying what they're selling. For the Zags to be the clear #1 in Kenpom suggests that the formula has problems accounting for a team like that.
I am not so sure about that. I think Baylor is just a better team and beat the snot out of the Zags, Kenpom isn’t perfect obvs
Kenpom's formula tells us that Gonzaga is decisively better than Baylor. A 2.65 EM gap is large.
In the semifinal, Baylor pounded flat a strong Houston team while Gonzaga needed a miracle to escape past UCLA. Then in the final, Baylor pounded Gonzaga flat.
Kenpom has a Gonzaga problem. It's hard for him to adequately account for a team that plays only a handful of competitive games a year vs. teams that play them regularly.
Eh. They still beat a ton of good teams and basically none of those games were even particularly close until the UCLA game. They're very good. Baylor is really fucking good though. Athleticism with shooting. They play very good team defense too. No shame losing to Baylor. Even Kenpom would say there was a lack of data points compared to most years. You can't blame Kenpom for that. It's just working with the data it got.
They still beat a ton of good teams and basically none of those games were even particularly close
Let's look at their schedule.
Nov. 26 - beat Kansas 102-90.
Dec. 2 - beat WVU by 87-82.
Dec. 19 - beat Iowa 99-88.
Dec. 26 - beat UVa 102-75.
The UVa win was impressive. Kansas, kinda. WVU and Iowa, eh, I guess.
But the thing is, that's it. Unless you squint hard to view BYU as a "good team" there wasn't one other quality opponent on their schedule in 26 regular-season games.
For this they were destroying all of Kenpom's ratings records this year (and even now are still one of his highest-rated teams of all time).
I have zero interest in analytics in any sport, so I've never spent any time delving into KenPom's ratings and how he arrives at them.
Maybe they make sense to those who follow and understand his system, but seeing him rate Gonzaga over Baylor by what is apparently a statistically significant margin after Baylor just rag-dolled them all game long makes me laugh.
"All models are wrong, but some are useful."
The other thing that is not really accounted for in the formula's is the time of year that the game gets played. Iowa's defense (while still not great) improved dramatically over the course of the year. Beating 99-88 in December was very different win than scoring 99 on them in February/March would have been. The computers treat teams as static over the year, but in reality teams can be very different/improved. Being the greatest team ever in December, which Gonzaga appeared to be, just did not hold over a whole season as other teams improved.
Oakland probably got a bump in the computer rankings just for playing us tough in December. Does anyone really think the UM team that played that game was representative of the team that won the BIG?
Honest question but is UCLA thebest team Gonzaga beat?
I think this year in particular, due to the limited number of inter-conference games, made it hard for some of these advanced analytics systems to properly rate teams and conferences. Look no further than the Pac-12, which spent most of the year not looking really good and then having basically a 12/13-ish sample of really good basketball by 4 teams suddenly rocketing a bunch of their teams up the charts. Was the Pac-12 probably underrated a bit at the top? Sure. But UCLA was not the #13 team in the country all season and the fact they hit 75% of mid-range 2s and their opponents shot 55% from the line for 5 games doesn't change that.
Gaming the system yet they made it to the national championship game which suggested that KenPom ranking is correct?
KP even now gives them a huge efficiency edge over Baylor.
They're a good team, but KP was suggesting all season that they were historically good, a clear cut above Baylor and miles above everyone else. His formula has problems accounting for a team like this.
I know you've got to play the team in front of you in a tournament but they played a 16,9,5,6, and 11 seed. Considered the easiest run to the championship based on seeding ever.
They didn’t game any system. They are a non-football playing school from a bad conference in Spokane. They played a tough non-conference schedule and beat everyone in front of them until the last game. I just don’t understand the Gonzaga haters. Big deal, a college kid grew a funny mustache and had a little fun with it.
For the Zags to be the clear #1 in Kenpom suggests that the formula has problems accounting for a team like that
Completely agree. The last 2 years have proven that KenPom gives preferential treatment to teams with weaker SoS
I agree. I think the biggest issue is their defensive efficiency. No way in hell is that a top 12 defensive team (and I think they were even higher before the tournament. I'm sure they completely lock down Pepperdine or whoever, but they had no rim protection, no frontcourt size, and underwhelming guards and wings (athletically) with the exception of Suggs. I won't pretend to know exactly how KenPom works, but I can tell you they'd be much worse in defensive efficiency if they played in a P5, and that would probably level out their KenPom dominance.
Where's Sparty?
Beat me by seconds! +1 Vlad
that program is going to be in the gutter for a while, not as sexy to recruits as once was
I think it is going to require another season or two of mediocrity. Izzo still has some pull, but start to dent the legacy for a period of time and the pressure for retirement will be on, then comes the coaching carousel and, hopefully, all of this coinciding with Michigan remaining elite nationally, OSU and Illinois continuing to push the rest of the conference. Then we will see MSU fall in a more considerable fashion. For right now, they had a shit year and even if they returned everyone, would still want for some things. However, they had some promise at the end of the year, and if Henry were to return, they could be very strong if some of their recruits hit and other players take steps forward in development. That said, I think Henry and Langford are gone, Watts is obviously out, Hauser staying is a win for MSU opponents, so it really comes down to the class they have coming in and whether or not the key players coming back can play bigger roles and be consistent. There are a lot of if's, but between Tyson Walker and Hoggard they need to find a reliable point guard, and if Christie plays to 5* potential and Akins can contribute, a lot of their experience returns in the 3-5 spots. They could put it together and be tough. My experience in the last 5 or so years says that Izzo hinders the play and growth of guys like Christie, tho, and we can expect him to be "pretty good" for 2-3 years before leaving for the pros sometime in the 2nd round
Izzo teams are best when he's got a seasoned PG, and almost always not until they're a junior or senior. If he's lucky enough, Walker is the heir to Winston, but right now, that player doesn't exist. If either Walker or Hoggard can be that person, it likely isn't until 22-23. Next year could be another tough one for them, though they'll be pesky at home because (waves hand at officials).
Where’s Sparty?
Keep looking...
Did Ken and his algorithms watch the game yesterday?
Wisconsin no way no how belongs at #14.
Agreed but then i look below them and wonder. FSU may be better, maybe Arkansas.
They actually played pretty well in the tournament, blowing out UNC and giving Baylor a halfway good game. Of course they looked really crappy before then.