CFP Rankings: tonight's release - and, what it was one year ago
The CFP Selection Committee is scheduled to release it's first "Top 25 Ranking" this evening.
A quick look at where things were a year ago - in their first release of the 2021 season:
1. Bama
2. Georgia
3. Michigan State
4. Oregon
5. Ohio State
6. Cincinnati
7. Michigan
8. Oklahoma
9. Wake Forest, and
10. Notre Dame.
A couple of thoughts - first, how some things "stay the same", and how some things change. Bama, Georgia, and the Bucks are part of the "usual suspects" in the polls. But, oh my, what has happened to those in green and white - I believe their record from this poll's release is: 5-7.
Who do you think will be in the top six or ten in tonight's release?
November 1st, 2022 at 12:49 PM ^
Georgia, Tennessee, OSU, Michigan, Clemson, and Bama for sure.
November 1st, 2022 at 12:51 PM ^
My guess:
- Georgia
- OSU
- Tenn
- UM
- Bama
- Clemson
- TCU
- Oregon
- USC
- UCLA
November 1st, 2022 at 12:53 PM ^
I just hope Tennessee or Georgia manhandles the other. This should reduce likelihood of both getting bids.
November 1st, 2022 at 1:05 PM ^
That's a good point. That could eliminate the loser. If it's close, the loser is still going to have a very impressive resume if they win out.
November 1st, 2022 at 2:36 PM ^
UGA remaining schedule: Tenn, Miss State, Kentucky, GT
Tenn remaing schedule: UGA, Missouri, South Carolina, Vanderbilt
I don't see many losses left for either school.
November 1st, 2022 at 5:00 PM ^
Especially not Tennessee. Beat UGA and it's smooth sailing.
November 1st, 2022 at 12:53 PM ^
MSU at #3 a year ago? Hahahahahaha.
November 1st, 2022 at 1:01 PM ^
That made me giggle as well. Just a blip in history.
MSU is tanking quick.
Recruits are going to start looking elsewhere and bad coaching does not win with average players.
November 1st, 2022 at 2:02 PM ^
tl;dr - Tucker's record over 3 seasons will likely be much worse than Brady Hoke's over his first 3 seasons. Yet Tucker was deserving of a mega-contract and Hoke was on the hotseat. I'm no expert, but it's possible that msu may have jumped the gun on the huge contract extension.
Since msu beat Michigan last season on 10/30, they are 6-7.
It could get worse before it gets better for them. They play on the road at Illinois this weekend and I wouldn't be surprised if they are similarly throttled offensively. Brief reprieve after that with Rutgers and Indiana before losing to PSU to close out their 2022 campaign.
With all the distractions and loss of some players (including probably Windmon eventually), I wouldn't be surprised to see them drop one to Rutgers and/or Indiana, though.
My guess is that they finish 5-7 at best, maybe 4-8.
That would make Tucker's 3 year record 18-14 or 17-15, which actually isn't terrible on the face of it for a new coach. But it's the order of the seasons that makes it suspect.
My guess as to Tucker's first 3 seasons:
- 2-5
- 11-2
- 5-7
- Total: 18-14
Hoke's first 3 at Michigan
- 11-2
- 8-5
- 7-6
- Total: 26-13
Coincidentally, Hoke's 4 year conference record at Michigan was 18-14. Tucker's 3 year conference record will probably be 11-12, at best.
Taking out COVID year, though, that puts Tucker's 2 full seasons at 16-9, at best. He would need to go 10-3 next season to match Hoke's first 3 seasons. I am skeptical.
I guess they have different standards for offering a coach a big-time contract.
(wow, this got way longer than intended)
November 1st, 2022 at 2:12 PM ^
Throw his one season at Colorado in the mix:
2019 - 5-7
2020 - 2-5
2021 - 11-2
2022 - 3-5
In this case I'm not sure the Covid season is the outlier.
November 1st, 2022 at 6:53 PM ^
I thought that was an error at first,
November 1st, 2022 at 12:58 PM ^
My guess:
1. Tennessee
2. OSU
3. UGA
4. TCU
5. Michigan
6. Clemson
7. Bama
8. Oregon
This is assuming that resume will be a heavier weight than the "eye test" or quality metrics. Certainly hope it goes the other way and Michigan would be top 4.
The wildcards to me are UGA which could be anywhere from 1-5 and TCU which could be anywhere from 3-7. Where those teams are placed will be indicative of whether this committee leans resume or quality.
Based on resume alone, TCU grades out favorably. They're #3 in SOR which is a metric the committee has tended to stick close to. But they've been super lucky and don't really pass the eye test. They're like MSU last year, whom the committee liked at this point.
And UGA is the opposite. They've played a weak schedule and only grade out as 5th in SOR but pass the eye test with massive win over Oregon and are the defending champs.
Michigan is in this boat a little bit too. Very weak SoS so they're only 7th in SOR but do well in the quality metrics. Don't be surprised if Michigan is 6th behind both Clemson and TCU if the committee leans towards pure resume compared to quality/eye test.
November 1st, 2022 at 1:48 PM ^
TCU's defense is atrocious. At least Bama has an excuse for giving up that many points to TN. I think they will value the eye test more. We will see what happens.
November 1st, 2022 at 1:57 PM ^
Yes, like I said TCU has been lucky and doesn't pass the eye test but like MSU last year at this point, they have a good resume based on pure Ws and Ls despite being lucky. Just predicting this committee similarly values the pure resume. Hopefully they look deeper and realize wins over OU, KSU, and Kansas were all against their backup QBs (and maybe Ok St too?).
November 1st, 2022 at 2:45 PM ^
I hear ya, TrueBlue, TCU doesn't pass the eye test but they have several wins over ~8-4 type teams. Clemson's wins over WF, Syr & NC St fall into this category.
Man, I hate rooting for ND, but I did last week and probably will for the rest of the season, esp against Clemson!
November 1st, 2022 at 12:59 PM ^
I think the committee is going to value Tennessee's resume and put them #1. Which makes them ripe to get torn up by Georgia who will be next week's #1.
The committee may also show some love to TCU for the decent Big XII wins they have thus far. I also hate to say the same for Clemson who has beaten their top contenders. Ohio St & Michigan don't have the quantity of top 25-caliber wins as TCU & Clemson, unfortunately.
November 1st, 2022 at 1:19 PM ^
I live in SC and watch a lot of Clemson, they do NOT look good and their fans even think they arent very good this year...hopefully ND beats them in a few days
November 1st, 2022 at 1:26 PM ^
They are a pretty good team but they certainly are not anything like Clemson of 5 years ago. They do have good backs and an offensive line that opens up some holes.
I would take Michigan by 10.
November 1st, 2022 at 1:48 PM ^
Was really hoping Clemson would have lost one of their previous close games, as it kills me to have to root for ND. In a general sense I would love for Freeman to continue falling flat on his face...
November 1st, 2022 at 2:46 PM ^
33 - it's a topic for later this week - who will you root for during the game in South Bend on Saturday - ND or Clemson? I have to follow SunTzu - "the enemy of my enemy is my friend". And, at this time - the bigger enemy, with respect to CFP rankings - is definitely Clemson.
So, though I won't be cheering loudly - it won't be a problem with me if the Irish give Dabo's squad their first "L" of the year.
The weather forecast for South Bend on Saturday is - a high of 67 degrees with a 50% chance for rain - but, not sure when the rain could fall, and winds between 20 to 30 mph. So, the weather could be a factor.
November 1st, 2022 at 1:30 PM ^
Has Clemson beaten anyone that could beat Penn State? Their best wins are probably Syracuse and Wake Forest, which aren’t bad teams but will be fortunate to be sitting at the bottom of the Top 25 by the end of the year.
November 1st, 2022 at 2:43 PM ^
Could Clemson beat Penn State? Not sure about that.
I would take PSU at every position other than OL, DL and RB. Sean Clifford is a level up on DJU and Klubnik - I think he would be the difference in that game.
November 1st, 2022 at 1:46 PM ^
I am not sure if the committee would use that criteria as you state. They have gone out of the way to give credit to teams who look "good". Remember that UM was ranked higher than MSU even after UM loss to MSU and they were justified the next week (hope I am remembering right). We will see what they do, but will not be surprised OSU and UM are in top 4.
November 1st, 2022 at 1:08 PM ^
UGA , Tenn , OSU, Mich, Clem, tcu , bama
November 1st, 2022 at 1:51 PM ^
Nationals don’t like us after Fowler comments on the ooc schedule. After Cincinnati last year there’s sentiment for someone new…and reading TCU is the new darling. I’m expecting to be disappointed despite this team being as good if not better than last years.
November 1st, 2022 at 1:57 PM ^
Tonights rankings don't matter. If they win out it will play itself out. Everybody's going to get pissed how high TCU is going to be ranked tonight.
November 1st, 2022 at 1:58 PM ^
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Tennessee
... gap
4. Michigan
5. Clemson
6. Alabama
... gap
7. TCU
8. Oregon
9. USC
10. Ole Miss or UCLA
Interesting to hear the takes from the committee.
November 1st, 2022 at 2:27 PM ^
What has oHIO st done that Michigan hasn’t?
November 1st, 2022 at 2:38 PM ^
Michigan's non-conference resume is atrocious. ND is not what everyone thought they were, but they're still multiple TDs better than all of our non-con opponents.
If we're 11-1 and in the Rose Bowl and not the CFP, it will be that September schedule weighing us down.
November 1st, 2022 at 2:48 PM ^
Are you sure ND is that much better than UConn? I do think ND is better and would win that game but I also think that it could be a competitive game.
UConn is likely to be 5-4 after beating BC last week and favored to beat UMass on Saturday. Is UConn worse than Stanford? Hard to say.
November 1st, 2022 at 2:40 PM ^
Given up 21 points to Toledo.
Also, They Beat Notre Dame™. Which is always relevant even when, e.g., Marshall and Stanford are doing it. Because.
November 1st, 2022 at 7:39 PM ^
The question was - "Who do you think will be in the top six or ten in tonight's release?" I think this is the order the committee will slot them, not where I would slot them.
But since you asked specifically about OSU and Mich ... Best win for both is Penn State. I'd say the 2nd best win is ND. Slight edge to OSU. OSU is ahead of Michigan in the human polls. OSU is ahead of Michigan in any metric driven ranking I have seen.
But mostly, OSU is quite a bit ahead of Michigan in the simulated BCS polls. I believe the committee uses a ranking method very similar to the old BCS in their rankings and then tries to fit a narrative around those rankings. This is why they don't seem to have much consistency year to year.
November 1st, 2022 at 2:52 PM ^
Mind the Gap!
November 1st, 2022 at 2:47 PM ^
Outside the Covid year no one ranked #3 in the first ranking has ever finished in the top four in the final ranking.
November 1st, 2022 at 10:33 PM ^
I think Clemson was ranked #3 in the first ranking and won it all in 2017
November 1st, 2022 at 3:08 PM ^
I never want to play Tennessee again. #JasonWitten
November 1st, 2022 at 3:19 PM ^
There are 6 teams still undefeated, and only 4 of them can finish that way. Those 6 teams all currently control their own destiny to make it in. I don't care who they are, no 1-loss team is keeping an undefeated P5 team out of the playoff.
November 1st, 2022 at 3:40 PM ^
If Tennessee beats Georgia and loses to Alabama in the SEC title game, I wouldn't feel very confident if I were a TCU fan and they are undefeated.
November 1st, 2022 at 3:52 PM ^
If an undefeated P5 conference champion can be passed over by a team with a loss, then the 12-team playoff needs to be put in place tomorrow.
November 1st, 2022 at 4:15 PM ^
Mc - it's been a beauty contest since almost its inception. The BS, oops... BCS, was an SEC beauty contest. The CFP Selection Committee has just perpetuated that .. nothing but a beauty contest - and, they place more value on how a team "looks" instead of results on the field.
It's not going to change until the playoff format goes to 12 teams and conference championships actually have some value.
November 1st, 2022 at 4:52 PM ^
True, but they've always had wiggle room to pull off bullshit. A 1-loss over an undefeated isn't something they've ever had to do, I doubt they'd start now.