BBall Recruiting - New 2019 Target/David Skogman

Submitted by matt D on February 20th, 2019 at 7:42 AM

I've been able to confirm with multiple folks in the know that Michigan has entered the mix for 2019 center David Skogman out of Waukesha West, WI (Milwaukee area). David was not willing to go on record for an interview, however.

Caveats apply, as I've never viewed Skogman live, but based on watching film I'd place him in the 80-120 range for my rankings (I'm always conservative if I haven't seen a prospect live). To put in context, I don't think Skogman has the skillset of a Colin Castleton at the same age, but has a more advanced skillset than Teske at the same age.

Short Eval:

Pros:

Shooting - stretches the floor from distance with repeatable mechanics, even if the shot mechanics aren't the most cosmetically pleasing

Passing - really, really impressed with his passing out of double teams in both the post and when he collapses the defense off the dribble. Really good spatial awareness

Ball Skills - not as advanced as Wagner at the same stage, but a decent  handle at that size and has solid control of the ball for a prospect of that size. May be able to take a dribble or two at the next level facing-up

Fluid - probably an average athlete, but he moves well in terms of running the floor and not being stiff in general

 

Cons:

Lacks Explosion - decent run and jump athlete (meaning if he has space and is able to get momentum going prior to jumping), but struggles to get verticality from a stagnant position or through contact. His verticality (or lack thereof) reminds me a lot of Teske a the same age.

Back to the Basket Game - really a lost art in modern basketball, but Stogman doesn't display any use of the pivot as a post option. Doesn't even really display a simple jumphook over the left shoulder.

 

Preliminary Comparison - a poor man's version of former Bucknell center Mike Muscala (now in the NBA)

Offers - has picked up offers from Minnesota, Vanderbilt and Nebraska within the past month alone. Also holds offers from Texas Tech and Rutgers to go along with multiple mid-majors

 

This  has the feel of a classic Beilein recruitment..........a 'who that' type prospect that is a late bloomer/comes on strong late and Michigan may be in position to offer some attractive features in terms of a path to playing time and development.

 

The more interesting thing though is that this, along with the Lester Quinones recruitment, signals the staff is anticipating attrition of some form. I have a pretty good idea of what that attrition looks like, but I'll let that play its course.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S25jaUud4z0

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uF95G7iePhk

Comments

bacon1431

February 20th, 2019 at 8:36 AM ^

30 credits in a summer would be incredibly difficult. Even if someone was a Rhodes Scholar. He might not have that much. If he took AP classes and post secondary in high school, he might have gotten a decent amount of credits out of the way before he got to Michigan. So he might not have to do 30. But he also went to a small school so I don’t know how much they are able to offer in that regard. No way for us to know where he stands academically. 

outsidethebox

February 20th, 2019 at 8:51 AM ^

This whole thing could turn into quite the complicated affair. Many are looking at Poole's stats and think that he is on a decline-he is not...this kid is a player. And if Beilein does not come up with some solid assurances that there will be measures taken to free him up for better looks he may well decide to jump to the league. Folks can call this crazy but Livers may give the league a look as well. Here, Livers can light it up and is being relegated to playing an under-card role. Additionally, these two are very good friends...

SeattleWolverine

February 20th, 2019 at 9:23 AM ^

That would be a stretch. Poole's a solid player and may develop into a quite good player but there's nothing special about him at this point. A shooting guard with 20% usage who hits 38% on threes needs to have some other exceptional attributes since his production is nothing special. He's average as a defender and a passer. While he occasionally shows some creative moves while slashing, he doesn't get to the rim that much and his handles are loose which result in a lot of TOs. His shot selection is often poor and he's fallen in love with the step back 3, which is a shitty low % shot for everyone besides James Harden. Good height but a thin build. I mean, don't get me wrong, he's a nice player at the college level and could be a pretty good player if his shot selection weren't poor, but there's nothing to separate him from dozens and dozens of other similar guys in college basketball. 

Livers would be an intriguing guy from an NBA standpoint since he's a better (or rather, more disciplined) shooter and he has more size but he needs to show a more well rounded game. I would like to see him get more minutes and take a more prominent role than he is currently. 

 

SeattleWolverine

February 20th, 2019 at 2:15 PM ^

But that's true of every shooter and plenty of guys can get hot. Sure, it was great when he was lighting it up at 59% on 3s between Thanksgiving and New Years but you also can't ignore he shot 28% for the rest of the season. In the long run, and the NBA's 82 game season is a long run grind, he was a 36% shooter last year and he's a 38% shooter (433rd nationally) this year. And it drops to 31% in conference play this year. That's above average but nothing special. I do think he is a better pure shooter than he is an effective shooter. He forces bad shots more than most IMO. He also gets stuck with too many end of shot clock moments and while he should be looking to drive and get contact instead of trying to do the crossover -> the step back 3s in some of those moments, part of that is our overall offensive limitations this year (and tempo). I don't want to seems too harsh because he's got talent and is a solid player but his game is not fully developed and there are so many wings out there competing for a limited # of first round spots-- not the same as for bigs or point guards. So it's tough and he doesn't quite have truly elite athleticism, nor size, so I think he needs to be an elite shooter to make it. Don't quite see it yet. 

outsidethebox

February 20th, 2019 at 1:22 PM ^

I would define this as being concerned about the symptoms and not addressing the problems. There are reasons why what is happening here is happening. And I am saying that Poole would have a legitimate complaint that the coaching staff needs to address...and this, similarly, applies to Livers. It may well be that it is being addressed-it's none of our business...these are not matters of public disclosure. Coaches, like the rest of us, often "punt" and follow the path of least resistance...not passing judgement or opinion here...simply noting that there are tough decisions to make...sometimes the "path of least resistance" is also the correct/best one.

 

SeattleWolverine

February 20th, 2019 at 2:27 PM ^

I get that Livers might have a playing time complaint; Poole does not.

Past that, I don't follow what you might be hinting at as far as the problem that is not being addressed? I mean this team has offensive problems because Matthews is the only elite athlete and very few guys can create their own shot. Obviously both Matthews and Simpson are not good shooters, particularly from 3, so it's a problem but that's not going to change. Iggy certainly could learn to drive and dish. But anyway, I'm not sure what exactly the problem is or the solution that they would be looking for? Does he aspire to Carson Edwards type usage? 

outsidethebox

February 20th, 2019 at 8:11 AM ^

The film did/does not show much from the skills side but athletically he looks much better than Teske. He's a very nicely put together kid who is a decently fluid athlete. Really, for a 17/18 year old, it would seem as though he has a high ceiling. As I noted, the film does not show much from the skill side...but why is he not more highly rated-simply from his athletic potential???

matt D

February 20th, 2019 at 8:14 AM ^

I'd lean the other way actually, I'd say the film displays more of his skillset and not much athleticism (unless in space/transition).

In terms of your ranking question - rankings/evaluations are based almost exclusively on AAU play. Skogman did not play on a shoe circuit (he played for Ray Allen Select) and hence, its likely that very few national scouts were able to see him play live. Couple that with the fact that suburban Milwaukee isn't the highest level of HS basketball and you have an under the radar prospect.

yossarians tree

February 20th, 2019 at 2:48 PM ^

Why would a Davis or Brooks want to transfer, necessarily? If you assume they want to play a season or two of mid-major basketball before they graduate and go on with their for-certain non-pro-basketball playing lives, okay.

But it's quite possible that both guys would see their best option as: play a small role on an elite-level major college basketball team that can make deep runs in the tournament, graduate from an elite university with their friends, and then go on with their for-certain, non-pro-basketball playing lives.

 

outsidethebox

February 20th, 2019 at 8:35 AM ^

I did not see him shoot a single shot-dunks don't count. Can he dribble more than 2 consecutive dribbles? Oh, I found a clip where he buries a 3...looked repeatable-that's one none dunk! 

I do not believe Beilein would neg a kid for not playing the circuit...sometimes/many times a more blank slate is better than having to undo all kinds of crap...been there done that!

outsidethebox

February 20th, 2019 at 9:07 AM ^

The sample size is simply too small to draw any conclusions other than the fact that he can run the floor well...well, he did dribble the balls 3 times consecutively...and made 2 threes. 

I remember, as a kid, college scouts coming to a local school to scout a kid. A big deal was made in the local paper about how curious it was that one of the things the scouts were looking at was simply how he walked. At the time I did not understand either...today I do...and I like how this kid walks. 

matt D

February 20th, 2019 at 9:18 AM ^

I typically don't do this, but feel the need to make an exception in this case. It's quite obvious you're being argumentative for the sake of being argumentative. I have no interest in having that sort of dialogue. I respect your opinion, although I beg to differ. That said, I have to withdraw from this debate. Enjoy your day.

outsidethebox

February 20th, 2019 at 10:02 AM ^

It truly is not my intent to be argumentative here. Each if us are informed by our own experiences. I value your input very much. I have viewed three tapes-all I have found...they are pretty short and not very definitive. That's all. I have played, coached and officiated the game aplenty...have not recruited it (have recruited softball)...and am curious about the process. I am not challenging you here-I'm trying to develop a better understanding of the evaluation process and how kids end up where the do. And you surely are far more diplomatic than me...which I appreciate too!

MH20

February 20th, 2019 at 8:40 AM ^

People keep bringing up Austin Davis as expected attrition but unless he's getting his degree in three years (which is possible but difficult) I would say it's unlikely he would leave since he's already used his redshirt year and would give up a year of eligibility at his new school. The more likely scenario is him staying one more year and leaving after the '19-'20 season.

I've also read snippets where he's effusive in his love for Michigan the university. I don't think he would leave early.

Brian Griese

February 20th, 2019 at 9:09 AM ^

I do have personal connections to Austin's inner circle so I'll start poking around and see what I can find out...Last year when this came up I found out weeks before he put in print that it was a 'hell no' to transferring. 

I will add this though, the idea of of him graduating early may not be far fetched as Austin comes from an academic family (his mom is one of the principals at Onsted) and the Freep reported he had 4.11 GPA in high school and a 30 on his ACT.  https://www.freep.com/story/sports/high-school/2016/02/11/onsted-austin-davis-michigan-basketball/80262496/

My gut tells me he there is no way he leaves without a degree in hand but the next time I talk to my source I'll see what they know about his academic standing. However, at the end of last season, my source did advise he was basically right where a 2nd year student would be, but of course things can change about his mindset of staying.  

Brian Griese

February 20th, 2019 at 9:52 AM ^

I'll try to work on being more of a homer for next season :D

Also, I will add one more thing: From what I have been told (and observed) Austin was just as shocked as many fans were that a scholarship came his way from Beilein as it looked for a while his best hope for a Big Ten offer was from Bo Ryan and Wisconsin (I did get told a great story about Bo Ryan coming to Onsted for a game but I'll save that for another day).

I am perfectly fine with legit criticism but there is a portion of the fan base that hasn't had a nice thing to say about Austin since the second he committed, and he heard/saw every word of it.  From what I have gathered, it seems his motivation is more of showing he can play at Michigan rather than chasing minutes at another school and a pro career. At this point last year the intel I got was he wasn't leaving Michigan until forced to, but of course things change.  Again, that is just my opinion based on previous nuggets.  

Don

February 20th, 2019 at 10:37 AM ^

I've never played much basketball myself so I freely admit to ignorance from a played-the-game standpoint, but I've never been able to figure out how guys who are 6'-10" aren't able to dominate at the college level. Austin is far from the only guy I've seen with that size who just can't manage to have a real impact when he's on the floor.

Mr Miggle

February 20th, 2019 at 11:04 AM ^

A variety of physical attributes and skills are important in basketball. Just imagine Austin Davis vs Simpson playing full court one on one. Poor Austin might never score a basket. He's not 7'6. He's smaller than a lot of the bigs he goes up against, including two he sees in practice every day. I mean Faulds and Teske, but Castleton is probably taller too.

4th phase

February 20th, 2019 at 12:16 PM ^

Yeah people are bringing up Davis as expected attrition because they want him to leave not because there's any indication he will do so. I personally think he can be a useful piece of the rotation who maxes out at 6 min a game as a senior. 

I think the attrition mattD is talking about is an NBA departure. Right now everyone thinks only Matthews is gone. But you could lose one of Poole, Iggy, Livers, or Teske. I get they are all fringe prospects who aren't projected in the first round. But we've seen plenty of guys under beilein leave a little early before being fully weaponized at the college level. It's frustrating but by and large it's worked out for them.

WorldwideTJRob

February 20th, 2019 at 6:05 PM ^

Livers is not on anyone’s radar as far as the next level goes, he’s likely a 4 year player here. Most mock drafts do not have Poole in there either. Charles may take the leap just due to his age, but Iggy is projected as a 2nd round pick after one year of college. Most of the guys that left early all stayed for at least two years. 

As far as Davis it is nothing Personal, but we will have 3 ppl at his position who may likely surpass him by next season. It is also an opportunity for him to possibly get more PT at another school. If your max is going to be 6 minutes a game by your last year, I think it probably is best of all parties to amicably split.

ish

February 20th, 2019 at 10:26 AM ^

matt, can you give us a sense of whether you think the additional attrition to which you refer will come in the form of transfer(s) or somewhat unexpected departure for the NBA?