Are Quality Non-Conference Games Worth It?
In today’s age of 9 conference games, is scheduling a strong non-conference (especially on the road) opponent worth it? With 4 spots in the CFP pretty much reserved for 4 of the Power 5 conference champions or the best team from the conference with 1 or more loss; why risk an early season blemish at all?
Penn St and MSU played much, much weaker opponents this week; at home nonetheless and struggled mightily. Yet still they are in a much better position than Michigan and Washington for example. With 9 conference games and a tough division with an unbalanced crossover schedule, it seems that scheduling tough OOC games has a potential of a little reward or a lot of downside.
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:10 AM ^
No. Should have never scheduled this game - especially on the road at night. Just dumb. Warde Manuel should feel bad about this.
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:34 AM ^
I don't think it's Ward's fault. Harbaugh wanted this game. Warde wasn't going to say no.
September 2nd, 2018 at 3:27 AM ^
Warde could have said yes, and scheduled it at a time Michigan had an opening. He didn't have to force it in whenever ND wanted it, and at the expense of Arkansas and VT.
September 2nd, 2018 at 3:35 AM ^
The only way they could get it done this year was if it was at ND because of the TV contract with NBC. Supposedly, they will make up the back to back games at ND if they extend the serious past next year.
I don't think warde could say no to what time of day though, but I'm not sure.
September 2nd, 2018 at 10:59 AM ^
Totally agree. I hated all of the momentum when we beat Florida in Dallas. I also think Georgia fans hated beating Notre Dame on the road last year. Opening games against great opponents sucks...oh wait...they are kind of awesome when you win...just suck when you lose.
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:11 AM ^
Absolutely yes. Good publicity, good for recruiting, prepares you for more important big games in the conference, and does not prevent you from having a chance to make the playoff.
I also disagree that it poses little reward. Winning that game is huge for recruiting, momentum, prestige, and playoff resume.
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:21 AM ^
Don’t prevent you from having a chance to make the playoff? Maybe you meant Big Ten championship. Otherwise that’s just irrational. No two loss team has made the playoff - and you think this game has no impact? Lol get serious
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:29 AM ^
Well, Michigan can make the playoff if we run the table. I'm not confident about that, but I do believe this can still be a terrific team.
But, yeah, seems likely that we'll drop at least another game even in the best of cases. Now, a 10-2 Michigan team with a B1G title and our schedule might actually have a good argument to be the first team to make the playoff with two losses.
It just doesn't seem likely that we'll wind up with just two losses at this point. But we might.
The playoff committee is going to need to decide about this, though. I'd love for Michigan to be the team to challenge them. One of the ideas behind the committee was to reward teams that scheduled tough games like this one. The problem is that, right now, if you lose, you miss out unless you run the table. So Michigan gets no committee benefit for a tough schedule unless we win out.
They'll have to fix the flaw, or the correct play for big time teams will be to schedule three meaningless games and try to win the conference. Nobody wants that.
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:47 AM ^
Good points, I agree. This is assuming we just lose 1 more of course, which is a large assumption at this point. One can hope though.
September 2nd, 2018 at 1:11 AM ^
Your posts usually make a lot of sense, but not this one.
Michigan is on a 4 game losing streak and has lost 8 of their last 16. We now have a 12 year losing streak against ranked teams on the road.
We have no business even daydreaming about the CFP.
September 2nd, 2018 at 3:38 AM ^
I'm sorry but I feel like everyone is sort of missing a larger point. We don't want to make the playoffs.
If the apex of what we're shooting for is a big ten title, great. But the thing is... there are a lot of comments about notre dame being a good team. I guess that's sort of subjective, but the thing I took away from tonight was - after fighting this battle for the good guys (pssst, thats the non S-E-C S-E-C teams) for decades on usenet - neither team on that field tonight is anywhere near the level of teams like Alabama and Clemson.
The sad part of tonight, for me, wasn't as much about losing the game - it was realizing and sadly internalizing that the historic midwestern football powerhouses have faded to irrelevancy in the context of national championships. We're witnessing an end of an era.
Yes, I know the win at all costs aholes in ohio have won one recently. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that was a fluke. More recently, they lost 35-0 to Clemson. The year after the conspiring assaultists from Lansing lost 38-0 to Alabama. Isn't that worth inputing into these mad NC fantasies? Hell a few years before that the simmering Catholics got their asses handed to them 42-14 in a game we all know they shouldn't have been allowed to play.
These are the best teams in their respective years the midwest had to offer - and the last two big ten reps scored a combined zero points. Zero. Zip. Nada.
My cousin sends me a message at halftime - well at least we aren't Texas! Guess what, dude? Texas will be back. I live in Austin and the elite players at West Lake and Lake Travis *dream* of being longhorns. Michigan HS football sucks - our best teams wouldn't make it past the first round of the playoffs down here. And we all like to sort of delude ourselves - well, Ohio HS football is pretty darn good. No it's not - not in breadth, not compared to Florida or Georgia or Texas. We just don't have the recruiting ground to compete anymore.
And folks here think Frost is going to bring Nebraska back? Gd, give me some of that koolaid!
Sorry for the negativity. Dude I generally really enjoy reading your thoughtful posts. But playoffs? Do you really think, taking what you saw tonight and applying even the most optimistic "course of the season" growth - that we'd be in any way shape or form ready to compete with teams like Alabama and Clemson?
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:41 AM ^
Irrational is implying that we have already lost twice. It is unlikely for us to win out, but if we do - we are in the playoff. Period. This loss did not prevent that scenario. Also, irrational is assuming that no two loss team willl ever make the playoff. How long has the playoff been around? C’mon, try to not be so emotional and misrepresent my take.
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:52 AM ^
Nothing is implied chief. I’m simply saying that no 2 loss team has made it to the playoff. You have to lose one game to be able to lose two so.... I can see how losing a game might affect our playoff status. I would think this is common sense but I’ve learned common sense isn’t so common.
And I’m not sure what emotion you’re talking about. If I feel any disappointment it’s towards the team, but as for you I’m just confused.
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:48 AM ^
Auburn absolutely would have made it last year as a 2 loss team if they win the SEC championship game. They started the season ranked 12th. They lost an early non-conference game on the road at night against Clemson 14-6, in which their strong defense was not enough to make up for an inept offense. They also lost at a borderline top-25 LSU team before beating Georgia and Alabama, and were ranked #2 going into the conference championship.
It may not look like this is possible tonight, but let's say that Michigan puts together a similar season. We win the easier games coming up, then take 2 of 3 in the Wisconsin-MSU-PSU, then somehow knock off Ohio State. In that unlikely event, we are 10-2 with a better resume than Auburn had last year (certainly better losses, and more good wins).
Auburn had no road wins against ranked opponents last year. They only beat three teams that were ranked at the time or at the end of the year. And yet, there they were, a win away from a sure playoff berth. I'm not saying we are capable of getting to 11-2, but if we were to do so, we'd probably be a playoff team. These early games don't destroy a season, but they do give a team an opportunity to earn a buffer against a later loss. ND now has that buffer, but winning the B1G would still likely get us to the playoff.
September 2nd, 2018 at 1:07 AM ^
Good points. If we’re able to pull it together I hope the committee acknowledges our tough schedule. That’s why I like the human element of the Playoff, as opposed to something more computer/calculation based like the BCS.
September 2nd, 2018 at 1:30 AM ^
No matter how bad I was pulling for Utah st or App St, those games would’ve been catastrophic to your formula. I am not standing on the ledge following this game. We got better with Ruddock after the Utah game. Shea has the ability to get better as he gets accustomed to scheme and playmakers. Coaches can and better improve as well. Let’s not pretend that Shea was not a top tier QB out of high school as some have asserted.
September 2nd, 2018 at 3:29 AM ^
I mean, you know a two lose lsu played in the bcs championship when it was only 2 teams, right? A two lose team can get in, it's just a matter of when will it happen.
Hell, before last year, two teams from the same conference never made it in the playoffs either. Then it happened.
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:11 AM ^
Worth it if we can get back to 8 conference games.
Not worth it if we are going to stick with 9.
CFP is all about minimizing losses. Playing ND by choice when you have to play PSU, MSU, and OSU every year isn't minimizing losses.
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:12 AM ^
Not as the first game of the season. You don't know what position you are going to be in in regards to personnel changes, coaching changes, etc. Playing Notre Dame third would make sense. Playing them first was a mistake.
Maybe if you're Alabama its fine because at this point the program is such a machine normal issues don't matter. But for just about anyone else its a terrible idea.
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:12 AM ^
They're not at all worth it. I would much rather have had a winnable game against Arkansas than another(!) away game against Notre Dame.
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:13 AM ^
No. Nobody seems to care about Alabama's SOS every year
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:14 AM ^
Let me translate your post into reality.
Would we rather find out that the ongoing issues with our offense were not effectively addressed on Labor Day weekend, or wait until October?
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:31 AM ^
What new issues did the coaching staff learn about tonight?
I promise you winovich and gary are destroying our OTs in practice each day.
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:14 AM ^
Besides preventing us from going undefeated and beating Notre Dame, this loss is not going to be the reason we don’t make the playoff - I think the O line has that one covered. And in the most joyous of unlikely scenarios, winning the next 12 (including B1G championship) would be an ironclad guarantee for a playoff spot. It won’t happen, but scheduling a good first opponent is not at all the reason.
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:14 AM ^
Would we all feel like shit if we won in the last two minutes at home vs Utah St or at home vs App St? Of course. But we would still be 1-0. Shoot, being 1-0 with a win vs an FCS team is better than being 0-1 with a loss to a top 15 team
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:14 AM ^
It's a calculated risk you take ONLY if your conference sucks. Like the PAC 12. But being in the B1G East, no it's not worth it.
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:15 AM ^
God damn...the whining on here. If we won...the same people would be talking about booking hotels for the playoffs.
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:29 AM ^
You are absolutely correct cali.
The sun will come up tomorrow in so cal.
M fans are .......about how we played tonite.
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:56 AM ^
You gonna hit up a USC game this year? Want to go to one game at the Coliseum.
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:15 AM ^
Yes.
Watching a team beat the snot out of some no-name team is both boring and unproductive.
This isn't about scheduling good non-con games, it's about the turnstiles we have posing as an offensive line.
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:22 AM ^
Playing Notre Dame is fine.
It would be far better to prepare for them as the third game of the year after you can see how your players react to game situations against WMU and SMU.
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:15 AM ^
They’re fun, but I would open with a softer opponent first.
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:18 AM ^
Not worth it. Go with the cupcakes and rack up the W's...especially to start the season. Let the team find their rhythm and weed out their weaknesses without getting blown up on a national stage.
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:18 AM ^
playoffs? we talkin about playoffs?
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:18 AM ^
Honestly the fuck kind of question is this? If we couldn't beat ND after how confident we felt going into the game what is the point on beating up on shittier teams and then getting embarrassed when we face a good team? Who cares about ranking. If Michigan is good then they should win no matter who they play in their first game. If playing cupcakes makes you feel better at the end of the day, Idk what to tell you.
If you are arguing that we should play cupcakes so the team can get used to playing football again, that is a different argument but that is on the coaches to prepare them for that moment.
If we win our next 11 games this week won't matter as much, but again that is on the team to fix their mistakes from this game. Let's trust that they do. I think the problem this game was more on the defense in the 1st half than the offense, the offense definitely looks bit improved and I actually trust our backup QB for once (being that it was his 1st live game)
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:18 AM ^
Look at osu at Virginia tech in the first playoff year. Early losses are weighed less heavily than more recent losses. Winning against national power houses on the road and winning conference championship games is how to get in the playoff. We will have those chances every year, even if we schedule a challenging first game. The committee has literally used the term ‘good loss’, which - while ridiculous - lends more credence to scheduling a good team early. Win your conference, go to the playoff. Let’s worry about #1 first, okay?
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:21 AM ^
The silly thing here was to schedule ND and starting the series with a road game even though it had ended with a road game. If ND didn't wanna take it the other way around, just don't take the series. It's a crazy notion that Michigan somehow needs ND. Just another case of where Michigan grandstanding born out of overconfidence comes back to haunt us.
September 2nd, 2018 at 8:20 AM ^
"Don't make someone a priority who treats you like an option."
That quote is direct from Harbaugh's white board.
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:25 AM ^
This game specifically irritates me for a multitude of reasons, but among those is the fact that this particular series was rushed back into existence when there was no need and really no motivation from fans to see it.
As for the actual subject being discussed, I am sure that we've seen more difficult OOC schedules disincentivized with creation of a playoff, so if you're asking if the risk is worth it when the goal is clearly to attempt to get to the CFP, then in most cases, I am sure the answer is "not really".
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:26 AM ^
No. With 9 conference games and a division this difficult, it makes no sense to schedule anyone difficult out of conference.
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:31 AM ^
Some of this is getting bit in the ass by hindsight. After the disappointing end to last season, our guys could have used a win to open the season with a new QB.
I'd generally be in favor of starting out with weaker teams instead of being thrown into the fire. There's value in uncovering flaws sooner rather than later, sure.... the flaws may also have surfaced if we were playing Arkansas, and we'd have the win.
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:32 AM ^
I said this from the get go that playing this game was dumb, even more so if Harbaugh wanted it. ND fucked us over again...
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:36 AM ^
No, all non-conference games (especially now that there are only 3 of them) should all be home games
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:37 AM ^
Michigan has opened the season with a ranked opponent on the road just 6 times.
Record is 1-4-1.
All losses and the tie were against ND. Lone win was at #20 Northwestern in 1971.
It doesn't happen often and for good reason. Idiotic choice. No one wanted to listen to me though. Just want their date and memories from yesteryear of a rivalry that is going to go dormant for a decade after the 2019 meeting. Schedules are already full for both teams in the future.
Utterly pointless. This loss is on Harbaugh and Warde. Because if this was at home, we win. If we open with Arkansas like we should have, we win.
2020 at Washington ain't gonna be fun.
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:50 AM ^
Also, unlike pro football, we don’t get a pre season game to work out the kinks. Why not play a MAC level team to work them out?
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:53 AM ^
Florida, were they not ranked?
September 2nd, 2018 at 1:06 AM ^
Not a true road game as it was neutral
September 2nd, 2018 at 8:25 AM ^
We need to look at cancelling that Washington series. There is a 0-20% chance we win that game no matter how good our team is.
September 2nd, 2018 at 12:40 AM ^
Of course they aren't, especially as the first game of the season on the road.
Despite a lot of expected first game mistakes, we basically played a top 10 team even on the road. Yet the loss will drop us in the rankings and severely damaged our chances of making the CFP and winning a national championship.
The irrational overreaction of Michigan's fanbase (Harbaugh's the problem! Fire Harbaugh!) on MGoBlog to this loss is the same irrational reaction of the playoff committee. So we just shouldn't schedule games like these - unless the system changes and we have a real playoff with 8 teams.
September 2nd, 2018 at 1:31 AM ^
Those idiots are not to be taken seriously.
We have no other option than Harbaugh. He is the best we will do. It's one fucking game and we lost by a touchdown and had the ball at the end. A ranked opponent on the road at night.
The second worst part about losses other than the actual loss is dealing with this fanbase after losses. Just such miserable assholes to the players, coaches and whoever doesn't think the sky is falling.