This is my weekly feature to look back at summer previews, get egg on my face, look over what Michigan did, and then project the rest of the year as we get more real time data.  Last week's taking stock report can be found here.

Prelude:  I did season previews on most UM opponents - I skipped UNLV and Rutgers out of boredom, and OSU out of fear.  The rest are below

• BYU, Oregon State, Minnesota, Northwestern,
• Penn State, Maryland, Utah, MSU

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Let's begin with a look back at my summer comments about UNLV

[Crickets-chirping.wmv]

Ok there was no summer preview because previewing what would be a lower end FCS team is useless.  We'll return to this feature next week when we can look at my summer views on BYU.

So with that, here is what was said last week about UNLV:

Michigan is currently a 34 pt favorite vs UNLV.  Even accounting for the dumb money that puts money on brand teams this should be Michigan's easiest game of the year although UNLVs QB - if healthy - will pose more danger than Oregon State's.  If Blake Decker can play the whole game UNLV probably can put up some points on Michigan's defense.  If he cannot play, this will be ugly.  The backup QBs looked Russ Bellomy'ish last week for UNLV vs UCLA.  (4/15 for 4 yards, with a pick 6... oh and a fumble).   Unless something wacky happens this should be like playing Eastern Michigan.

Michigan being Michigan the line was not covered.  But it could have been if Jake Rudock even played an average game as he did last year at Iowa.  More on that later.  This should have been a 49-7 type of spanking if the offense was at all efficient in the 2nd half.  The 7pts at the end of the game we gave up are meaningless but the struggles of the offense raise concerns - from the inablity of our QB to complete basic passes to inability of our line to get 3rd down and 1/2 completed against a bunch of 260 lb guys who would struggle to play in the MAC. 

A Look at Michigan

I don't want to go too into the weeds about this game because I think everyone saw the same thing - an ok offense combined with a good defense.  The main thing this week gave UM was practice time and more chances to practice plays vs a vastly overmatched opponent.  On defense all we learned is when we outclass, outspeed, and outweigh them we are efficient.  Something even Hoke's teams generally did - on defense.  James Ross played more and the corners made some plays - against the level of competition they will not see again.  This week will tell us a lot more.

The offense was troubling and we all know it.  The variance on this board is what it means.  There is still a large camp of "it's still early and/or playing close to the vest and/or Rudock will be better soon and/or #Harbaugh!".  I am not as sanguine.   Vernon Adams had 3 weeks to prepare for a defense far better than UNLV and at least looked competent - oh with a broken finger.  Jake Rudock has had more time in the system, with 10 healthy fingers, and has looked like a RS FR at times.  I did not expect much from Jake Rudock - I found the "Rudock is not different than Connor Cook" threads this summer hilarious.  But I did expect a low turnover "West coast offense" type of QB who gets you the 12-16 yard passes consistently while protecting the ball.  That has not been Jake Rudock.  And it's troubling.  I don't care about the ability to bomb a team for 30+ yards.  But his complete misses and throws behind players (even on completions, which prevent the receiver from making YAC since they have to contort all over the place to make the catch) is a surprise.  This was supposed to be an accurate dude.  He has not been - and that's with one of the best QB coaches in the country working with him for 2 months now.   I actually said the same thing Ozone said in live chat - right now Jake Rudock is giving UM a lot of the bad of Devin Gardner without any of the upside.  The only benefit to Rudock over Devin right now is he doesnt scramble backwards for 15 yard losses on the regular.

Ozone had this stat in case you missed it:

Here is how far downfield his completions went when they were caught by a receiver: 7, 5, 7, 4, 2, -2, -1, 3, 7, 12, -2, 1, -2, and 3 yards. (His incompletions looked like this: 12, 5, 13, 9, 32, 1, 25, 33.)

This is pathetic.  And why his completion % is still "respectable".

For further data I mined into NCAAs QB stats.  Jake Rudock is currently 46th in the country in completion % (64.8%) - which is average - but it is because he is 90th in the country in yards per attempt (6.4).

For comparison - Kevin Hogan of Stanford - another "West coast" low risk, boring QB in a staid offense has a 63.2% compeltion rate... while averaging 8.9 yards per attempt.  And there is no excuse for competition - Oregon State and UNLV are horrendous teams and Utah's strength is rush D, not pass D.   AND Rudock has enjoyed the type of protection UM QBs have not seen since 2011.

If we had played a competent mid level team ala Iowa or Maryland or similar that would have been a 10-9 type of game and UM at risk of upset.  Thankfully it was a complete garbage team.

If the blended average of the first 3 weeks of Jake Rudock continues to show up UM right now looks like a 7 win team despite an above average defense.   Defenses will crowd our line and be more than happy to allow Rudock to try to throw over the top.  And if he is successful 1-2x a game they will continue to crowd the line because the chances of him doing it repeatedly are small and the risk of turnover high.  So it's going to be a long season on offense IMO - the main hope is Rudock at least improves in the  8 to 14 yard area of his passing.  He couldn't have degraded that badly from last year in that regard.

As for the run game it was ok.  A very overwhelmed opponent yielded 254 yds on 39 carries (6.5 per) but excluding the 1 huge run it was 178 yards on 38 carries - 4.7 per carry.  That's not good enough vs this type of competition.  Guys like Nick Chubb of GA are averaging 8+ per carry in conference play.  Yes that's a superstar but it's just context.   Penn State has a highly rated freshman recruit (Barkley) who in games 2 and 3 of his career last week v Buffalo put up 115 yds on 12 carries (9.6 per) and vs Rutgers 195 yds in 21 carries (9.4 per).  Behind a shit OL and with defenses stacking the box because Hackenberg is shell shocked.  The run game is just not good enough consistently considering the opponents.  So the excuses we lay on this ground game are not good excuses when peers with the same issues are able to do more.

I am troubled by what I am seeing.

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DEGREE OF DIFFICULTY RANKINGS

Basing games on WHEN they are played and WHERE this was my general view on degree of difficulty for each opponent coming into the year.    Again this is not how good the team is in a vacuum but how they match up vs UM.

Stock Up

• Northwestern (+1) - I am reluctantly moving Northwestern up 1 spot.  My DOD rankings are based on how I think UM matches up with other teams.  So I moved Northwestern up past PSU - even as I believe the PSU game will be more difficult for UM.   I actually think these 2 teams are very similar - but we have 1 game at home and 1 on the road.  Both PSU and NW feature stingy defenses, with mediocre QB play and good running back play.   We play NW at home and PSU on the road.  So with all other factors equal PSU is the more difficult game IMO still - especially since I expect Hackenberg to go off (even with PTSD) at least 2-3x this year whereas NW is playing a freshman at QB whose ceiling I find limited.   A freshman who went 9/23 for 70 yards last week.   That said I am going to respectfully push up NW a slot for their strength of schedule - their Stanford win looks better after Stanford beat USC and going on the road to play a solid if not spectacular Duke squad is a feather in their cap.   PSU has not played that level of competition.  I watched some of that NW game after the UM game and it looks like another M00N game is headed our way.  NW got a special teams touchdown early in the 2nd half; otherwise that's a 12-10 game with 2 bad offenses.  NW's offense is basically Justin Jackson - without a true passing threat I think UM can nullify him to a large degree.  And most likely Northwestern's defense will do the exact same thing to UM.  So in summary - M00N 2.0.
• Maryland (+1) - I moved Maryland down last week because their coach refused to play Caleb Rowe @ QB.  Well after the disaster of last week Perry Hills was demoted from 1st string to 3rd string and Rowe went out and won a game vs a mediocre USF squad.   I still think Maryland is a bad football team but Rowe at least gives them hope.  He has a big arm and takes big risks so he is INT prone.  But his yards per attempt was 9.0 in this game which aligns exactly with his average of 2014 in limited duty (54 throws).  So he can test UM's secondary and linebackers in space unlike most Big 10 QBs.  But  UM should get a turnover or two off him.  Maryland still struggles to run and USF smartly only gave Will Early 2 punts to return.  I'd like to see that # be 0 when we play them.  I still think Maryland is headed for about 5 wins this year.  But as long as Caleb Rowe is playing (he is injury prone) it's good enough to move them back up to where I had them in the DOD rankings earlier.
• Indiana (+1) -  Indiana has played no one.  But they score on folks.  Sudfeld will get some yards on the UM defense and somehow Indiana has just reloaded at RB yet again - a frigging frustration after watching all these 4/5 stars at UM struggle.  Unlike earlier opponents for Indiana, Western Kentucky is actually a half decent team among non P5s, and has a pretty damn good QB.  So they scored on Indiana as every team will (gulp - even us?)  Sudfeld had a great game going 20/27 for 355 yds with a staggering 13.1 per attempt.  Jordan Howard continues to masquerade very well for Tevin Coleman with 31 carries for 203 yds (6.5 ave)  I've moved Indiana up because it is a road game, and the offense is beginning to click.  The question coming into the year was if they could find a running back to replace the guy they just sent to the NFL - they have.  Coleman is average 6.5 yards per carry thru 3 games - yes that will drop when Indiana plays real defenses but it's less of a question today than it was 3 weeks ago.   So Indiana will score some points - and Indiana will give up a lot of points.  But if Rudock has a wtf game this one now has upset risk. 

Stock Down

• PSU (-1) - As mentioned above my gut says not to move PSU down but I am respecting the NW SOS vs PSU's SOS.  For the 2nd straight week PSU did not give up a sack.  Darryl Funk is perplexed how that can be.   For the 3rd straight week the PSU OL has created a lot of opportunities for running backs.  Potential freshman star and high level recruit Saquon Barkley has taken advantage as he pounded his home state Rutgers into submission.  When Barkley was not running for 200 yards, Akeel Lynch did the work with 10 carries for 120 yards (12.0 per).  That's a nice 1-2 punch.  PSU seems able to run now although the competition is still low in general.  Hackenberg - despite not getting sacked is playing like Andre Ware in his Detroit Lions days - he is hearing footsteps that are not there and throwing a lot of beautiful balls that one hop to WRs.  I give that guy credit for staying loyal but he has cost himself tens of millions based on the glimpses he showed as a freshman.  It is sort of sad to see.  PSU's D continues to improve as I expected as I think they have one of the best DCs - if not the best - in the conference.   Rutgers was held to 300 yards and only 43 on the ground net of sack yardage.  Rutgers' QB Laviano was sacked 5 times and intercepted twice.  I'd love to see a UM defense do this.  In terms of matchup PSU's strength on offense is UM's strength (rushing) - this feels like a Hackenberg v Rudock battle and at this point I think both are wholy mediocre.  I guess whichever is less mediocre that given night will help his team win.
• Rutgers (-2) - I moved Rutgers UP 1 spot last week despite losing to Washington State and losing their best player to suspension.  It had nothing to do with Rutgers and everything to do with how bad Maryland without Caleb Rowe was acting.  But now they keep suspending a few players a week, along with their head coach and look like a total shitshow.   The game is at home.  They were just destroyed by a meh PSU squad.  If they are not destroyed by UM it will be disappointing.   I've not only moved them down 1 spot but 2 as Indiana on the road with a legit offense now poses more threat in my mind than Rutgers due to the ability of Indiana scoring more points.

Stock Flat

• OSU - Northern Illinois is a pretty good non P5 program and I thought this might be closer at least thru a half as OSU sleepwalks through the next 2 months of the season waiting for MSU/UM at the end of the year.   But I never expected such a close game.  IMO Urban should be going with JT Barrett - get him starter reps - and say thanks to Cardale for last year and move forward.   On the positive side OSU's D was stellar only giving up 190 yds to a good offense.  But as we all know TOs kill a team and OSU QBs had 3 as they channeled UM the past 7 years.  I am sure Urban is actually tickled by this result as it gives him a lot to yell at the team during practices the next few weeks and get them focused.  OSU hosts Western next week so it will be interesting to see the how OSU's D handles a pretty good trio of QB/WR/RB the Broncos bring in.  OSU's offense should have a field day vs that Western defense however.
• MSU - Ho hum - "MSU is overrated because they didnt squash a mediocre team".  Yawn.  Unfortunately MSU is at that stage in the program where a lot of weeks are just boring and it's going through the motions of beating teams far below their talent level.  The complaints about how MSU is winning sounds a lot like what MSU fans were saying about Beilein teams pre 2014-2015 season "yeah they are winning but it's not by impressive margins!"  Ho hum.  MSU has basically 3 byes in CMU, Purdue and Rutgers before the Michigan game.  Cook finally looked good in this game (4 TD, 0 INT, 10.7 ypa) and Burbridge finally seems to be coming into his own to take over Lippet's role as the #1 WR.  Neither of those would be good developments for UM.  The run game on the other hand was bad.  As for the defense, playing Air Force is difficult as they chop block you to hell and run all sort of weird plays you don't see any other week of the schedule. I continue to see this as a terrible matchup for UM as our defensive strength is neutralized by their offense strength (DL v OL) and I fear how our OL will handle their front 7.  Esp with no real threat of over the top throws - it will feel a lot like the Denard and Devin offenses except with even less threat of a QB run.  Sigh.  Oh and their punter is pretty damn great already as a freshman with a 44.3 ave this game - so that neutralizes ours.
• Minn - I considered moving Minn down after their M00K game with Kent State but I still see them sort of the same as Utah.  A boring low explosion offense married to a good defense.  I didn't watch this game but via the box score it looked boring as hell - Kent State averaged 2.5 ypa on rushing and Minnesota 2.4.  Mitch Leidner did Mitch Leidner things - which led to 2 INTs opposite 1 TD.  Minn has another MAC patsie next week before Northwestern in 2 weeks.   It does sound like Minnesota has some injuries to the OL which is hurting so this might help UM.  But it is pointing to a M00M game.
• Utah - Utah beat a pretty crappy Fresno State team who was coming off a... uhh... 52 pt loss to Ole Miss.  It was looking like a typical low variance Utah game at the end of the 3rd with Utah leading 24-3.  Then both teams exploded for 21 in the 4th.  Kendall Thompson did ok in his backup QB duty, and Devontae Booker continued his workhorse ways with 31 carries for 156 yds. I believe this week is going to be the high point of Utah football in 2015 as it  goes to Oregon, hosts Cal and ASU, before visiting USC. 
• BYU - BYU's 75% of the way through a difficult 4 game start to the year.  Preview of matchup below but in terms of the game vs UCLA, Josh Rosen finally looked human and had a typical freshman game while the excellent Paul Perkins (1600ish yds in 2014) strafed (not strifed!) BYU's rush D.  There is a lot of talk on these boards about beating BYU's D on the ground.  No that's wrong - you beat them through the air - Boise passed for 300 on them and Tommy Armstrong looked like a Heisman candidate thru 3 quarters against them.  Their rush D is generally good when not playing absolute bad asses running behind a very good OL.  The worry here for UM fans was BYU might have found a running game with Adam Hine and his 149 yds on 23 carries.  Up to this week BYU's offense had been 1 dimensional so this is an issue.  QB Magnum was solid if not efficient - he is the anti Rudock.  He loves to throw bombs - connecting on a few each game.  Anyhow BYU went into the Rose Bowl and gave a top 10 team all it could handle. 

Overall

As I say every week my fear for UM in 2015 is explosive offenses and/or competent QBs as our defense looks like it will be prone to issues in space and our offense is not built for track meets.  But now I have to add the Jake Rudock is not even mediocre fear on top of that.  All summer I read countless comments LOLing at Iowa's handling of Rudock due to their conservatism whereas I posted quite a few posts this summer as devil's advocate saying maybe Iowa knows what they had in Rudock and is purposely conservative with him.  Right now that devil's advocate view seems to be winning out - unfortunately.  Again Michigan doesn't need a great Jake Rudock for 10 of their 12 games.  They need a guy who protects the f***** ball and can complete 13 yard passes to TEs and WRs on the regular.  That guy has barely shown up this year.  Yes we need another guy altogether to test the OSU and MSU defenses but that's a different story.   The type of Rudock we saw last week means teams like Maryland, Indiana, Minnesota, Northwestern, PSU are all threats to UM.  Iowa 2014 Jake Rudock limits those teams as threats.  

Not only is Rudock an issue but UM's inability to run for large parts of last game vs a horrid defense has me worried vs better defenses ala PSU, NW, Minn.  You have a QB who can't throw past 10 yards and a running game that struggles with above average defenses.  So what's left?  On the plus side the opponents in those games are QBs like Leidner, Clayton Thorston, and SackYipenberg.  Thankfully UM plays in the Big 10 where Rudock is incredibly typical of the shitty QB play seen in most of the conf.  I expect M00N, M00M, M00P, etc.

I was in the 7-8 win camp to begin the year, trending to 8 after last week but now trending back to 7.  We're done with the 2 worst teams on the schedule and the 4thish best.  That leaves 9 games - 2 where we are underdogs, and 3 we should be decent favorites.  Follow the chalk and that takes us to 5-3.  Leaving 4 toss up games - BYU, Minn, NW, PSU.  Split those and you get to 7-5.  A BYU win would be huge to stack odds to 8 wins.

Next Week

BYU has big play capability thru the air.  Magnum is not super efficient - but has a huge arm.  BYU's WRs are very tall - but so are Clark/Stribling.  The run offense is TBD - was the UCLA breakout a case of UCLA not having a good run D or a case of BYU finding a new weapon?  I am leaning towards BYU finding answers at RB because UNLV put up good yardage on UCLA on the ground but once Decker went out at QB (hurt) UNLV basically only ran.   And Virginia was held to under 100 yards by UCLA on 34 carries.  That said the run game is not where I expect the defense to be hurt - it's through the air.  This will be one of 4 aerial attacks of any measure we should face this year (unless Hack comes back from the dead).

On the other side of the ball you beat BYU thru the air, not on the ground.  Paul Perkins is probably one of the best players in the country no one talks about.   If he played in the SEC he'd be right behind Chubb and Fournette as a top 3-4 RB in the conf and talked about a lot.  So BYU giving up 200+ yds to him is more a case of Perkins being good along with a stout OL than BYU sucking.   BYU had a top 25ish rush D in 2014 and did well vs both Nebraska (37 carries, 126 yds) and Boise (31 carries, 64 yds).   They generally suck in pass D - atrocious in 2014 and this year began with giving up 319 yds to Tommy Armstrong and 300 to Finley of Boise.  Rosen sucked but that's a true freshman QB doing what true freshman phenoms do a few times a year as a freshman.  So we need Rudock to be a horse in this one as BYU will get points.  Going to be a tough game - real tough.