WTKA Roundtable 1/2/2020: The Cat's Wearing Pants
Football things discussed:
- Thought it was going to be a bloodbath and it wasn't. Great script from Gattis
- Everything relevant to next year goes well, Patterson doesn't give a quarterback a chance while Mac Jones is pinpointing bombs off his back foot.
- Jeudy was the best player on the field, their QB played his best game and ours couldn't hit anything over 15 yards.
- Season review: First-time coordinator stuff grew into what we more or less expected. Second half: shooting themselves in the foot, happens all the time in the Harbaugh era.
- Great use of Giles Jackson as a quasi-RB.
- 2020: Michigan gets most of their skill position players back pending some NFL decisions for Collins & DPJ.
- Gotta replace three guys on OL but have Stueber, Filiaga, Hayes, Vastardis, kick the tires on Terrance Davis perhaps? Have a lot of ways to get to another good five.
- Brian prefers McCaffery to going after KJ Costello—people in the building love Dylan, but he's got to stop taking big hits.
- Weird that Steve Sarkisian didn't bother with crushing us with Najee Harris inside until the end. What does DT situation look like?
- Secondary: Seldon can play, gonna see what they have in DJ Turner.
- Brian: Next year hinges on Mazi Smith and Chris Hinton, and how good/healthy can Dwumfour be?
- Specialty positions: "Shark" (Uche) and Viper will be interesting.
Hoops things discussed:
- MSU: were about to lose to Seton Hall until they got some crazy nice officiating
- Biggest difference this year is State can't shoot threes.
- What's Nunez doing in practice that he's still ahead of Bajema?
[Player after THE JUMP]
You can catch the entire episode on Michigan Insider's podcast stream.
Segment two is here. Section three is here.
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January 3rd, 2020 at 8:33 AM ^
Brian, to your point on second half blunders for this offense. SC pointed out that one of the downfalls to having the OC on the field is it is harder for him to see things and make adjustments. That may be why this offense can go from putting up 300 yards in the first half and sub 100 in the second.
January 3rd, 2020 at 9:37 AM ^
Went from putting up 187 in the 1st half against PSU to 248 in the 2nd half.
The blunders are rarely schematic. As in, it's not Michigan going with a scheme in the 2nd half that doesn't work and getting rocked. It's more ill-timed play calling and general inconsistencies with players like Patterson (missed throws) and WRs (horrible drops).
January 3rd, 2020 at 8:38 AM ^
Whew. A bit too much Ira on this one. Missed Sam today.
January 3rd, 2020 at 12:12 PM ^
Thanks for heads up on Ira. That's a hard pass. He's such a loud mouth blowhard. He says whatever comes to his mouth and then backpedals when someone corrects him.
January 3rd, 2020 at 9:03 AM ^
This weekly segment/podcast has become a total joke. Im sorry for the guests that have to go to WTKA.
Sam and Ira i dont know what you people look at, keep listening to whatever propaganda Schembechler Hall puts out there. Brian tries to give you legitimate facts from actual analysis from game tape and you totally disregard every week.
January 3rd, 2020 at 9:32 AM ^
Hate the idea of bringing in a GT QB, no need. DCaff will have to earn, but not a position of utmost concern. Hope Ruiz comes back to provide 2/5 of OL starters back. Hopefully the recruiting pays off and couple studs line up for 3+ years. Have to shore up the DT position. Can any of the OL's make the transition?
January 3rd, 2020 at 9:39 AM ^
Hate the idea of bringing in a GT QB, no need.
Absolutely. I get why they went after Patterson back in 2017/2018 because Peters wasn't quite it and McCaffrey was a RS freshman, but at this point you've recruited McCaffrey and Milton who have both been on campus for 2+ years. Play them.
January 3rd, 2020 at 9:46 AM ^
DCaff can be the man for the next two years and Milton is a very solid back up. If we want to bring in a GT bring in a DT that can be a good rotation player
January 3rd, 2020 at 9:53 AM ^
Honestly, if we go after a transfer QB this year, what is the point of even recruiting QBs anymore, and how can these QBs we are recruiting be so underdeveloped by this point in their career? How can the coaches even know how the QBs they have recruited are going to perform when they are playing full time and get prolonged game exposure?
They coaches scout these players, or at least they should be scouting them. Are these QBs that much different than the players the coaches thought they were recruiting? One of the players I have been most excited to see play for the last two years is Joe Milton. He has not done anything in any game that has dissuaded me from my original impression that he is going to be awesome.
I did not question the Patterson transfer because he was a really highly rated recruit and Peters had not looked like a world-beater (though he did look completely functional and was not measurably worse than Patterson this year), but frankly, the Patterson transfer was a complete bust and I think going that way again would be a monumental program management mistake.
January 3rd, 2020 at 10:21 AM ^
So, general agreement with a majority of your post. At this point, there is 0 reason to go after a grad transfer QB unless they are Jalen Hurts level and/or you have a bunch of RS and true freshman not ready to go. BUT, that's clearly not the case here.
KJ Costello, by all accounts is a solid QB (if he's healthy) but not a world beater. Moreover, if Michigan is serious about running an offense that uses the QB as a run threat in any way (still doesn't actually look like it on the field), Costello is not that guy.
Again, McCaffrey has been around for 3 years. Milton, 2. If neither of those guys are capable of captaining the ship, then what the hell are we doing here? Not every QB will be All-Big Ten, but if you whiff on 3 guys consecutively between Peters, McCaffrey, and Milton then I don't really know what to say. That's inexcusable.
To be clear, I think a lot of what has gone wrong since 2016 is fixable, but it's going to take people in positions of power to come to terms with their issues.
January 3rd, 2020 at 11:04 AM ^
You mean the Milton that throws an interception every third pass because they're all light speed?
January 3rd, 2020 at 12:32 PM ^
Milton is the anti-Shea. No matter how much his actual play sucks people still think he's good.
January 3rd, 2020 at 9:45 AM ^
Jerry Jeudy: #3 WR in 2017 (#21 overall): 77 rec, 1,163 yds, 10 TDs
DPJ: #1 WR in 2017 (#12 overall): 34 rec, 438 yds, 6 TDs
Yuck
So far from the 2017 class here are our top 10 guys
1. DPJ - Starter, but underachieved
2. Aubrey Solomon - Transferred
3. Cesar Ruiz - Starter, up and down season
4. Luigi Vilain - Injuries, yet to contribute much
5. Drew Singleton - Transferred
6. Ambry Thomas - Starter, probably took longer to develop than recruiting profile would suggest
7. Jordan Anthony - Transfer portal
8. Chuck Filiaga - Hasn't broken into starting lineup yet
9. Tarik Black - Transfer portal (promising freshman year, but injuries hurt development)
10. Dylan McCaffrey - Yet to break starting lineup
Three starters, one that took longer to develop than expected, one with an up and down season, and one vastly underachieved. All 10 were top top 150 players.
January 3rd, 2020 at 10:19 AM ^
Agree that DPJ has definitely underachieved. Wrs all need to toughen up over the middle. Saw quite a few alligator arms last 2 games on passes over the middle when they knew they would take a big hit. Hopefully coaches calling them out on that. Not sure about Ambry taking too long to develop. He was an underclassman behind 2 upperclassmen NFL corners first 2 years. Playing behind Watson was probably more of a bad coaching decision than slow development imo.
January 3rd, 2020 at 10:26 AM ^
I only saw that once when a 5-star safety was closing in on Bell. He still almost came down with it. I also saw Collins catch a few in traffic with two defenders draped around. It's hard to say what's the problem with DPJ. Is it route running? Is it lack of targets? Is it Patterson not throwing accurately? He can clearly catch the ball, has the size and speed, and has good hands. It's probably a little bit of all of them. He was always raw, but crazy athletic. I wouldn't expect him to put the numbers Jeudy did because he's a great route runner. But, it would be nice to see him double is yards and receptions.
January 3rd, 2020 at 10:30 AM ^
So if the db is a 5 star you should sacrifice the catch rather than being hit as opposed to if the db is a 3 star? Several of the alligator arms drops against OSU.
January 3rd, 2020 at 12:36 PM ^
So if the db is a 5 star you should sacrifice the catch rather than being hit as opposed to if the db is a 3 star?
I'm not sure if that's a real question, but I'm just adding context as to why a 180 lbs WR might be a little more cautious with a 5-star safety bearing in on him, but a guy like Collins who's 220 lbs might be a little more willing to hang in with traffic around him. You'd assume a 5-star safety from Bama is probably more likely to be able to deliver a harder blow than a 3-star CB from Indiana for instance. I know the commentator mentioned something to the effect that Bell heard the footsteps. I'm guessing the closing defender may have affected his concentration, but it certainly didn't stop him from going up for the ball and taking the contact. FWIW he also took a shoulder to the head earlier in the game would could have been called as well.
January 3rd, 2020 at 2:23 PM ^
It was a rhetorical question. If our wrs are afraid to take hits from anyone regardless of 5 star or 2 star they shouldn't be playing. Height and weight do not necessarily determine recruiting rankings, but they are a factor yes, but Matellus was a 3 star I believe and he can hit pretty well. If we are intimidated by 5 stars we will continue to get smoked by them.
January 3rd, 2020 at 10:32 AM ^
I don't get how the WRs went from not dropping anything last year to what we saw this year. You generally don't regress when it comes to the ball hitting you in the hands.
Collins had 3 or 4 pretty bad ones including a couple off his own face.
Bell had way too many, even if you remove some of the more difficult ones that he had to leave his feet for.
DPJ had at least 5 I can vividly remember that were crushing. 2 against PSU. 2 or 3 against OSU including the TD.
I think (this would need some analytical support) they ran more in breaking routes this year than ever before. One of the annoyances with Harbaugh back in 2015-2018 was the lack of slants when CBs played way off and drags that have become even more popular. Butt used to work the middle quite a bit but even then it was a lot of seams and hitch routes. Flags/corners as well. The WRs were mostly curls, goes, and some outs. Any in breaking routes were usually deep post shots that didn't require them to make a catch with someone coming for their head.
This year there were still the flags/corner routes as well as the quick hitches (eventually). But Bell/DPJ had a lot of digs and deep crossers to go with the slants that Collins ran as well. Running guys into traffic probably correlates to an increase in drops, but this year seemed like far to big of a jump in those drops.
January 3rd, 2020 at 12:04 PM ^
PFF's mid season WR grade:
#28. Michigan Wolverines
Perhaps disheartening at their place here, the Wolverines receiving corps has largely disappointed according to their preseason hype in 2019. With Donovan Peoples-Jones, Nico Collins and Tarik Black considered by some as the best trio of receivers in the country before any games were played, only DPJ has put forth a receiving grade above 70.0 while Black has dropped three of 21 catchable passes and is averaging just 2.5 yards after the catch per reception. That being said, they're still a dominant group of pass-catchers as DPJ, Collins and new star Ronnie Bell have more than made up for Black's struggles. They have five players with at least 10 receiving conversions and Bell leads the charge with 19, even if he doesn't have a touchdown this year, much to the chagrin of the Wolverines faithful. They'll likely need to limit the drops as a team if they want to slide up these rankings but they do have the star power to make moves, that is without question.
I was more disappointed in the WRs than in the QB - the WRs way underachieved their potential all season but Shea actually raised his game in my opinion to more or less his ceiling (which granted was under the WR's potential). Shea set all sorts of Michigan "all time" passing records but this WR crew set none. The drops got even worse in the 2nd half of the year, culminating in a mind-boggling 8 dropped passes in the OSU game alone.
The change I would like to see for 2020 ? ... go to a single position coach for QBs and WRs ... an integrated approach to meetings and practices. Gattis has OC duties only with Coach Ed as the run game guru and new QB/WR coach as pass game guru. McDaniels is likely headed to the pros, if so, now is the time to make that change and find an add'l stud recruiter at the same time ... guy would be hand picked by Gattis.
January 3rd, 2020 at 9:57 PM ^
Definitely not fair to Ambry. Very good starter in his 3rd year, quality backup in his 2nd year playing behind 2 NFL draft picks as the other poster said. Filiaga not breaking into the lineup considering he's a guard isn't actually a bad thing.
But yeah, not great overall. I looked further down the list and it just gets worse. A bunch of guys aren't even on the team anymore. Jeter was a top 300 guy and basically can't see the field. Yeesh.
We'll see what happens with the 2018 class, but so far that looks to be tracking better even though that class wasn't that highly-rated overall. Of course, 2 of the top 10 are already gone, Myles Sims and Muhammad at TE (though I'm not worried about TE at all).
January 3rd, 2020 at 10:12 AM ^
Seth, any thoughts on Spanellis transferring? Seemed surprising to me. Thought he had a decent shot at one of the starting guard spots next season. Didn't see an exit post on him. Apologies if it was talked about, wasn't able to listen to the podcast.
January 3rd, 2020 at 10:24 AM ^
McCaffery will have to completely change the way he runs or he will continue to get killed. He runs leaning forward with his head exposed to getting blasted.
January 3rd, 2020 at 11:12 AM ^
Not sad to see Shea go. I think he was "ok", but thats about it. Next year,I would like D Caff. to get a shot over Costello (or Milton). Im not convinced Harbaugh lacks the ability to coach up a qb which was alluded to on another thread. Hoping he still is the qb whisperer. I think if D. Caff and/or Milton both fail to produce then the evidence will start to be there for me.
As for the skill WR's- I still expect another one to jump ship, but not both. I hope I'm wrong, but can't see them both staying after such an abysmal year from the offense. Money is on DPJ returning and Nico going.
January 3rd, 2020 at 11:21 AM ^
can't see them both staying after such an abysmal year from the offense.
Offense via SP+ was 20th. It started in the 60s IIRC, but it was significantly better in the back half of the season.
The WRs have reason to be annoyed with the early play calling and late issue with Patterson's accuracy, but they have their own issues to work out that can't be blamed on the "offense" as a whole.
January 3rd, 2020 at 12:12 PM ^
WRs were a mess most of the season. I don't get all the drops. Granted Shea had some accuracy issues early on, but a big chunk of the overall passing inefficiency for the season was an inordinate number of WR drops. That just did not occur in 2018, hence Shea's better numbers overall.
January 3rd, 2020 at 10:07 PM ^
I also think Harbaugh can still develop QBs. Hell, he did it with Rudock and Speight! People are talking about Speight's regression, but the OL was bad, I believe it was Pep's first year, and it was still early in the season. O'Korn had already been benched at Houston. He just wasn't good. And I think there's something to be said for the golfing stuff about Shea. Even in his interviews he's pretty comatose. Just never seemed like the leader or intense player you need at QB. Like you said, no excuses for next year. Milton and McCaffrey have time and the system and both were highly rated. The starting QB next year should be at least as good as Shea out of the gate.
January 3rd, 2020 at 2:27 PM ^
Ira Weintraub is absolutley intolerable.
January 3rd, 2020 at 9:42 PM ^
Brian is overrating the "shoot yourself in the foot" stuff. Alabama did that against Auburn. OSU just did it against Clemson. Sometimes this stuff happens, but the effects are magnified when you're the underdog, so it looks more like a systemic problem. Michigan is +4 on TO margin this year. OSU had plenty of drops and bad passes against Michigan, but no one cared because they won handily.
January 4th, 2020 at 12:36 PM ^
I agreed with Ira regarding Dylan and his getting injured. Removing the targeting injuries and this is still the case. The MTSU game he tried to take on 3 or 4 defenders on the sideline attempting to score at around the 5 yard line. He obviously got blasted, injured and didn't play again. He did that a few more times this season as well. I admire the heart and desire to succeed, but in wish he'd live to play the next down more.
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