Spring Roster Overanalysis 2014!

Submitted by Brian on February 26th, 2014 at 1:35 PM

A semi-annual tradition: Michigan releases a roster, I go over it to add to my ever-growing pile of slightly different numbers. To the pile!

QUARTERBACK

Player 2010 2011 2012 Spring 2013 Fall 2013 Spring 2014 10 to 11 11 to 12 12 to 13 13 to Spring
Devin Gardner 210 205 206 210 210 218 -5 1 4 8
Russell Bellomy   189 201 213 215 210   12 14 -5
Shane Morris           202        
Wilton Speight           230        

RUNNING BACK

Player 2010 2011 2012 Spring 2013 Fall 2013 Spring 2014 10 to 11 11 to 12 12 to 13 13 to Spring
Justice Hayes   176 183 190 192 190   7 9 -2
Drake Johnson     203 212 213 212     10 -1
Sione Houma     221 229 231 240     10 9
Joe Kerridge         238 247       9
De'Veon Smith         224 223       -1
Derrick Green         240 227       -13
Wyatt Shallman         237 243       6
Ross Douglas       176 176 186       10

WIDE RECEIVER

Player 2010 2011 2012 Spring 2013 Fall 2013 Spring 2014 10 to 11 11 to 12 12 to 13 13 to Spring
Devin Funchess     225 228 235 230     10 -5
Amara Darboh     218 213 212 214     -6 2
Jehu Chesson     183 193 196 195     13 -1
Dennis Norfleet     170 168 169 167     -1 -2
Jaron Dukes         190 200       10
Csont'e York         180 194       14
Da'Mario Jones         192 198       6
Freddy Canteen           170        
Drake Harris           180        

TIGHT END

Player 2010 2011 2012 Spring 2013 Fall 2013 Spring 2014 10 to 11 11 to 12 12 to 13 13 to Spring
Jordan Paskorz   246 ? 251 255 255   ? 9 0
Keith Heitzman   251 ? 277 280 271   ? 26 -9
AJ Williams     282 265 265 263     -17 -2
Jake Butt       231 237 250     0 13
Khalid Hill         258 255       -3
                     

OFFENSIVE LINE

Player 2010 2011 2012 Spring 2013 Fall 2013 Spring 2014 10 to 11 11 to 12 12 to 13 13 to Spring
Jack Miller   263 287 291 290 297   24 3 7
Blake Bars     282 284 291 290     9 -1
Ben Braden     299 314 318 319     19 1
Kyle Kalis     292 297 302 304     10 2
Erik Magnuson     290 286 285 295     -5 10
Kyle Bosch       307 302 301       -1
Logan Tuley-Tillman       285 300 290       -10
David Dawson         297 295       -2
Graham Glasgow         303 308       5
Dan Samuelson         283 282       -1
Patrick Kugler         287 295       8
Chris Fox         338 310       -28
Mason Cole           275        

DEFENSIVE LINE

Player 2010 2011 2012 Spring 2013 Fall 2013 Spring 2014 10 to 11 11 to 12 12 to 13 13 to Spring
Frank Clark   228 260 277 277 270   32 17 -7
Matt Godin     270 277 280 283     10 3
Willie Henry     302 306 306 297     4 -9
Ondre Pipkins     337 308 315 313     -22 -2
Tom Strobel     250 262 265 268     15 3
Chris Wormley     268 290 289 292     21 3
Mario Ojemudia     223 244 250 250     27 0
Taco Charlton       265 270 275       5
Maurice Hurst         270 277       7
Henry Poggi         260 271       11
Bryan Mone           315        

LINEBACKER

Player 2010 2011 2012 Spring 2013 Fall 2013 Spring 2014 10 to 11 11 to 12 12 to 13 13 to Spring
Jake Ryan 225 230 242 241 240 235 5 12 -2 -5
Brennen Beyer   225 252 254 250 256   27 -2 6
Desmond Morgan   220 230 227 228 232   10 -2 4
Allen Gant     196 203 212 222     16 10
Royce Jenkins-Stone     206 215 225 221     19 -4
James Ross     225 223 220 225     -5 5
Joe Bolden     230 222 225 225     -5 0
Ben Gedeon         236 236       0
Mike McCray         237 242       5
Michael Ferns           233        

CORNERBACK

Player 2010 2011 2012 Spring 2013 Fall 2013 Spring 2014 10 to 11 11 to 12 12 to 13 13 to Spring
Raymon Taylor   169 183 186 183 182   14 0 -1
Delonte Hollowell   164 177 175 180 175   13 3 -5
Blake Countess   176 182 181 182 183   6 0 1
Terry Richardson     154 162 167 172     13 5
Jourdan Lewis         170 174       4
Channing Stribling         171 176       5
Reon Dawson         170 178       8
Brandon Watson           185        

SAFETY

Player 2010 2011 2012 Spring 2013 Fall 2013 Spring 2014 10 to 11 11 to 12 12 to 13 13 to Spring
Jarrod Wilson     190 196 200 202     10 2
Jeremy Clark     191 201 205 206     14 1
Dymonte Thomas       187 190 191     0 1
Delano Hill         205 205       0

Rule one of Roster Overanalysis Club is all weight change is good.

Various other things that leap out:

Not a lot of movement. This year features many fewer large swings than 2013 or 2012, and while that's partially the fact that old stuff is measured in year increments instead of six month moves, there are many position groups where 2x  the amount of movement seen here is still basically no movement. Linebacker, safety, and both lines are relatively static.

In general, that's good, as Michigan goes from a breakdown/rebuild cycle to tweaking amongst players expected to play.

Derrick Green is slimming down. Important thing #1 is Green dropping 13 pounds on his way to 225 or 220. Hopefully he regains the form that saw him atop the hype lists as a recruit.

Technically listed at tight end. Anyone on the move-Funchess-to-TE-to-cover-for-Butt train should note that Funchess is listed down five pounds from last year. Dude is a wide receiver.

Gardner more prepared to take a pounding. Up eight pounds going into a senior year is unusual for QBs.

Brandon Watson enters as Michigan's heaviest cornerback. If he adds any weight he'll be hanging out at safety, where some help would be appreciated.

The freshmen last year all put on 5-8 that will probably be 10-12 by fall, just in time for Peppers to provide a stiff challenge.

Might want to pump the breaks on Canteen a smidge. 170 is perhaps untenably light.

OL moves. Not a whole lot there other than Kugler, Miller, and Magnuson moving up into the 295 range where they're still a little light but probably workable; Fox dropping 28 was inevitable as he recovered from major knee surgery and necessary if he was going to see the field.

This should be good. Michigan has their guys mostly where they want 'em and is now just working on making them stronger.

Wonder what's up with Tuley-Tillman.

Work needs to be done on the DL. Beyer (still listed at linebacker) up six to 256 is a bit less problematic if Michigan plays more over fronts but still unappealingly likely to be thrown into the sideline as an SDE. The two redshirted DTs added a bit of weight but are still in the 270s. Godin and Strobel are going to need to pack it on.

Clark drops seven pounds, presumably to be quicker off the snap. All weight change is good.

Comments

Space Coyote

February 26th, 2014 at 2:10 PM ^

I'm still feeling good about MO coming around, but we'll see how that turns out. But people hold weight differently. Clark seems to hold weight pretty well, and I think he'll be able to play SDE or WDE, though in an under front I still don't really want to see him take on a bunch of double teams. In an over front, the two positions are pretty interchangable (which is why MSU plays a field and boundary DE)

dragonchild

February 26th, 2014 at 2:21 PM ^

Beyond a certain point it's not about pure weight, or even "good" weight vs. "bad" weight.  It's about how the weight moves.

The weight's there for obvious p=mv physics, but that's just the 19th century level of the equation -- if the guy opposite you outweighs you by 50 pounds, odds are you're gonna get pushed back if you take a bull rush square.  Air Force can only do so much with their weight restrictions, for example.

But in the case of Frank Clark, his weight isn't what concerns me.  DEs in a 4-3 need to be very athletic, both powerful AND quick.  But while as the season wore on he got better and evolved into one of the better pass rushers, despite being called a "freak" he wasn't really blowing back anyone with lower-body explosion, running past pass blockers with raw speed or breaking ankles with quickness.  Mind you he was very athletic by any objective standard, but (and my memory may be fuzzy here) I don't remember seeing O-lines motion like "oh shit Frank Clark" and scheme to stop the guy.  That's a concern that's related to his weight but only partially.

Clark could be 260 or 280, hell, 250 or 290 even; what he needs is not a weight target but the ability to beat a block consistently and he can't even do that as well as JFMR -- a linebacker, yes our best linebacker but still a linebacker -- despite the block-beating expectations of the position.  Maybe it's a technique thing, I dunno, someone else has to explain why because I'm much more of a run-around-in-space guy than a brawler.

dragonchild

February 26th, 2014 at 4:55 PM ^

I dunno.  He just didn't seem all that quick or powerful.  That CAN be a technique thing, and I'll admit my eyes can fool me if it was that.  The way I saw it wasn't so much he was a super-freak athlete that was too raw, but a guy trying various moves but lacking the power or speed to beat his man.  A raw athlete will do things like that one DL guy we had who often just stood up at the snap but one time literally grabbed his blocker and tossed him asideThat's a raw athlete with huge upside.  With Clark, I saw a guy moving pretty well, but his blockers just didn't seem to have too much trouble staying in front of him and holding ground.  I'm concerned that he's not nearly as athletic as advertised (for an FBS DE).

Again, before I get negged into oblivion, I'm not a brawler so I don't trust my own assessment.  I'm just being honest about what I saw, and concerned because I think for all the hype he's rapidly reaching his ceiling as a mediocre FBS DE, and I in fact suspect that's why they're moving Jake Ryan inside.

dragonchild

February 26th, 2014 at 2:11 PM ^

There's a ratio thing at work here.  I often think too much is made of (relatively minor) weight differences between linemen; someone at 280 could be far stronger and tougher than someone at 300.  If neither has bad weight it's not likely, don't get me wrong 20 pounds ain't nothing to sneeze at, but factor stuff like length, build, speed, etc. and it's not like the 300 guy's a sure thing.  But 170 vs. 190 is a whopping 12% difference in mass.

6'0" and 170 and his pride is his quick feet.  That's. . . yo, that's me (although perhaps 1/475th as athletic), and you wouldn't want to see me in pads against FBS competition unless you like snuff film (or hate me that much).  I'd want to add at least 15 pounds of muscle and would prefer to be up to 190.

WolvinLA2

February 26th, 2014 at 3:53 PM ^

If he sticks at slot receiver, he really doesn't need much bulk. Sure, he'd be better at 185-190, but he'll be 175 by fall and that's fine. He won't be asked to block a lot, not will he have a corner lined up on top of him. If he's quick and can run good routes, that matters more than 10lb.

Space Coyote

February 26th, 2014 at 1:54 PM ^

I would guess he's still working on losing bad weight (so eating properly and running) but hasn't been able to do a bit of the lifting because of his hand, and therefore has lacked some addition of muscle mass.

aplatypus

February 26th, 2014 at 1:58 PM ^

He may be a heavier corner, but I'd prefer he stay there rather than get looked at as a safety. 

He's also probably the most physical corner on the roster already, or near it, and that's something Michigan needs. The other young corners on the roster are largely string beans still, and as much as I think Stribling can be great, Michigan needs at least one imposing corner that can jam a receiver at the line.

maizedandconfused

February 26th, 2014 at 2:12 PM ^

Don't know if he will even be the most physical corner in his class.

Peppers: 6'1 205.

For me, I'd rather have countess and taylor play the wide, and then press peppers in the slot.

Obviously this will assume Thomas and Wilson can hold it down on the back end. We are really really light on depth at both safeties

aplatypus

February 26th, 2014 at 2:42 PM ^

which is pretty limited, Watson is definitely a more physical corner than Peppers. It could be part scheme and that Peppers plays about every position on the field, but there are very few clips where Watson isn't pressing his man, and that's still pretty uncommon for high school. Of what I saw for Peppers playing corner, he was off the line more and made up for it in coverage with his pure speed and athleticism. 

Again that's limited viewing, but physicality isn't a measurement, it's a state of mind. And to me Watson appears to play more physically.

gforsyth4

February 27th, 2014 at 6:46 AM ^

Pressing is a coaching call. Watson is great, but Peppers can play press as well. I'm familiar with the tape on both and IMO it's scheme that you're referring to.

I will say I'm excited about Wilson and Thomas back at safety. I'm pumped about Blake and Ray on the corners with last years sophs and the two freshman coming in behind them. I think we have the foundation of a great secondary.

nazooq

February 26th, 2014 at 2:00 PM ^

Has Gardner been working out or has he been limited by his injury?  If he hasn't been working out a lot, his eight pound weight gain might not be good weight.

sundaybluedysunday

February 26th, 2014 at 2:02 PM ^

I just wanted everyone to know that following winter conditioning I have also put on about 22 pounds by working out and eating everything in sight. While not all of it is good weight, I fully plan on leaning out and should be at a healthy playing weight by fall. Can someone please let Hoke know? I do have a fifth year to work with.

Space Coyote

February 26th, 2014 at 2:30 PM ^

He really won't get up above 180 and play CB. You can't build him like a RB. He needs to remain much more fluid throughout the hips and even in the upper body. 175-180 is probably optimal weight for him, and he'll slowly keep going up to that. I'd even be surprised if he's actually 5'9", he's a really small guy.

bronxblue

February 26th, 2014 at 2:22 PM ^

Weight change for Green is great news.

Funny thing is, virtually all of guys are mountains of human beings, so to me going from something like 286 to 298 or whatever doesn't really register with me as good or bad.

 

ish

February 26th, 2014 at 2:35 PM ^

the most overlooked weight change, in my opinion, is ondre pipkins.  i figured that since he wouldn't be able to walk/run for a while, he'd put on a lot of bad weight that he'd then need to lose.  but he actually lost 2 pounds.  i think that and the green weight loss are the two most important figures above.