Fall Roster Overanalysis 2017 in Spring 2018!

Fall Roster Overanalysis 2017 in Spring 2018!

Submitted by Seth on May 9th, 2018 at 9:40 AM

Michigan did in fact release a spring roster this year, though this one gets the paint drying treatment, since even Steve Martin couldn’t get excited about the most recent phonebooks.

There are reasons for that. For one we kinda had a basketball thing going on the day they appeared. Two, we kinda had a hockey thing going on. Three, the roster release is what precipitated the Elysee Mbem-Bosse situation (because he wasn’t on it), and I didn’t think an irreverent post on the roster was appropriate right at that moment. And four, these are all the same weights from the game notes they put out for the media last year, which have finally been applied to the online 2017 rosters as well as the spring ones. I’ve taken to updating my spreadsheet whenever insiders said things like “Paye is up to 365” or a player posted his new number and will show that when it’s available, but those are not verified and therefore not included here.

But hey, it’s officially official offseason and it’ll be good to have this when we do get new rosters five minutes before Notre Dame kickoff and we can measure the Herbertization. So I’ll note all the actually new things, and we’ll hit the jump to see last year’s weight gains/losses and make totally unrealistic judgments about it.

NUMBER CHANGES

We’ve discussed some of these already but seeing them all might put those in better context.

  • Kekoa Crawford: 1—>41
  • Jordan Anthony: 1—>34
  • Kareem Walker: 6—>46
  • Nate Schoenle: 35—>81
  • Shea Patterson: 2
  • Joe Milton: 5
  • Taylor Upshaw: 91
  • Myles Sims: 6

We have an interview with Schoenle going in HTTV so I got the author to confirm that number changed because Schoenle and Uche are both on special teams. Kareem Walker’s change was also his choice I’m told, part of a refocusing process that’s less about “I’m the next Tyrone Wheatley!” and more “I’m going to be my best myself.” He probably didn’t realize he just went to the number of an even greater former Wolverine, Harry Newman (or early ’80s star running back Lawrence Ricks).

In the absence of an explanation for Crawford’s number switch, along with his non-mention in spring, it’s not hard to speculate negative things. On the other hand, I remind you 41 was Rob Lytle, and Harbaugh was the ball boy on those teams, and I guarantee you he wouldn’t miss a chance to point this out if someone groused about wearing it. It also could just mean Kekoa has joined the kick return unit too so he can’t have the same number as Ambry Thomas.

HEIGHT CHANGES

I don’t know why so many of these changed—dudes don’t usually grow taller in college and only fullbacks shrink—but they did so I’ll report them. As best I can tell originally they just grabbed whatever was listed on the Rivals database, and now they report their own measurements.

  • Up 2 inches: Josh Uche 6’1”—>6’3”; Devin Gil 6’0”—>6’2”
  • Up 1 inch: Ben Bredeson 6’4”—>6’5”; Juwann Bushell-Beatty 6’5”—>6’6”; Noah Furbush 6’4”—>6’5”; Ron Johnson 6’3”—>6’4”; Khaleke Hudson 5’11”—>6’0”; Kekoa Crawford 6’1”—>6’2”; Cesar Ruiz 6’3”—>6’4”; and Andrew Stueber 6’6”—>6’7”
  • Down an inch: David Long 6’0”—>5’11; Eddie McDoom 6’1”—>6’0”; Nick Eubanks 6’6”—>6’5”; Kurt Taylor 5’9”—>5’8”; O’Maury Samuels 5’11”—>5’10”; Tarik Black 6’4”—>6’3”; Nico Collins 6’5”—>6’4”; Quinn Nordin 6’2”—>6’1”
  • Down 2 inches: Donovan Jeter 6’5”—>6’3”

Any David Long + Lavert Hill photo could tell you they were the same height—if anything Hill is taller—so that one doesn’t surprise me. Adding an inch to offensive linemen makes people who put stock in roster data (ahem) think those OL are better pro prospects, so that could be what that is. Ditto linebackers.

    POSITION CHANGES

    These don’t show as much as they should because Michigan’s positional definitions are as vague (OL, LB, DB, etc.) as possible. Also you know about them already: Jared Wangler moved to fullback, and they’re now listing the vipers Khaleke Hudson and Jordan Glasgow as linebackers.

    The changes we’ve heard about are Glasgow swapped with Hawkins for SS/Viper, Uche stayed with the OLB group at his request instead of trying out at DE, Irving-Bey is with the tackles, and Joel Honigford is with the guards.

    WELCOME TO THE DATABASE FRESHMEN!

    After signing day Michigan snuck a new page into its roster list with the guys who’d signed their LOIs. No numbers yet but it’s an opportunity to publish their listed weights versus what the services had them at. I included the early enrollees.


    Height Weight
    Name Pos Mich 247 Rivals ESPN Scout Mich 247 Rivals ESPN Scout
    Joe Milton QB 6'5" +0.5 - - -0.5 220 +10 -20 +12 -
    Michael Barrett ATH 6'0" -0.5 - - x 215 - -15 +8 x
    Hassan Haskins RB 6'1" - - - 207 -5 +5 -5 x
    Christian Turner RB 5'11" - -1 -1 - 185 +2 -7 +7 -
    Ben VanSumeren FB 6'3" - - - x 232 -4 +7 -20 x
    Ronnie Bell WR 6'1" - - -1 x 174 -4 - - x
    Ryan Hayes TE 6'7" - - -1 - 262 -10 -2 +5 -3
    Mustapha Muhammad TE 6'4" - +1 - 244 -9 +5 -5 x
    Luke Schoonmaker TE 6'6" - - -1 - 229 -4 +4 -4 -
    Jalen Mayfield OL 6'5" - - +1 - 275 -2 -23 +10 +13
    Aidan Hutchinson DL 6'6" - - +1 -1 258 +2 +6 -17 -15
    Julius Welschof DL 6'6" - - -1 x 253 -5 +2 - x
    Taylor Upshaw DL 6'4" +1 - - x 240 - -5 +5 x
    Cameron McGrone LB 6'1" - - +1 - 225 -10 -5 +4 +1
    Sammy Faustin DB 6'2" - - -1 - 190 - -20 +7 +13
    Vincent Gray DB 6'2" - - - x 180 - -15 +14 x
    German Green DB 6'2" - - - - 178 -10 +12 -12 -
    Gemon Green DB 6'2" - - - - 175 -10 +8 -8 -
    Myles Sims DB 6'3" -0.5 - - -0.5 173 - - - -

    Also Utah transfer Casey Hughes was listed at 5’11”/195 by Utah and 6’0”/185 by Michigan, whatever that means.

    For those counting at home, here’s how close the services got to whatever the school decided to list them at, on average:

    • 247: Off by 0.13 inches and 4.58 lbs
    • Rivals: Off by 0.11 inches and 8.47 lbs
    • ESPN: Off by 0.47 inches and 7.53 lbs

    So I guess use Rivals’ heights and 247’s weights? This would be fun to do on a larger basis. Scout data is included from what I grabbed before the merger but I didn’t have enough to count them.

    [Hit THE JUMP if you want to see last year’s weight gain 2000 chart, which I remind you again only exists so I have something to work off of next fall]

    ----------------------------

    Jimmystats: The 2018 Class in Context, Part II: Defense

    Jimmystats: The 2018 Class in Context, Part II: Defense

    Submitted by Seth on March 2nd, 2018 at 10:22 AM

    image

    Very different types of 3-stars [Eric Upchurch, 2013]

    This is take two (take one got deleted) of Part II of my attempt to put the recruiting rankings of this year’s commits in context within the ~500 previous Michigan commits we have Part I: The Offense lives here.

    Since the last one I’ve been dealing with a health thing. In fact I’m writing this from the hospital, where they’ve had me holed up since last Friday. Between tests, consultations, vitals, and literally almost 100 needle pokes into my vascular system, I’ve had time to complete a substantial update to my roster database, which now goes all the way back to Gary Moeller’s first year, plus some long overdue tweaks to how I value position and regional rankings.*

    I’ve also been playing around with interactive charts on Tableau:

    image

    Click to get to the chart since I can’t figure out how to get embedding to work yet. I’m new at these so bear with me as I learn.

    * [Methodology for stat nerds: I averaged the 247 composites of each rank for each position, then plotted it on a graph and used the logarithmic formula]

    ---------------------------

    STRONGSIDE DEFENSIVE END

    imageimage

    Young Wormley was 70 percent potential, 30 percent hair [Upchurch/Bryan Fuller]

    After Michigan loaded up with linemen last year and secured two one of the top DEs for 2019, they could afford to get picky in 2018. They still got one potentially immediate contributor and two excellent choices for sleepers of the class. Aiden Hutchinson got a late ratings bump from the sites which pushed him up from a near-perfect Ryan Van Bergen comp to “not just a four star” range.

    image

    The only relatively recent guy Michigan captured in this range was Craig Roh, but if Rivals hadn’t been so contrarian with Wormley I think that would be your closest comp. 247 was the highest on Wormley and came out about the same on Hutchinson’s kid. He’s supposed to be coming in to play defense but if you want to project him at guard, well, here’s the closest comp:

    image

    We have to scroll down to the mid 3-stars for Taylor Upshaw and Julius Welschof:

    image

    Note that’s not “generic three star” like Greg Brooks/Rondell Biggs, but neither is it “just missed a fourth star” like Carlo Kemp and Jibreel Black. As I said, I love the potential with both of these guys. Upshaw is the son of an NFL player who didn’t start playing football until recently. Welschof is a German athletic freak and mogul skiier who gathered a lot of interest from the big-time schools he camped at. The recruiters were always playing catch-up there too. Rivals didn’t take to Welschof—otherwise the sites placed them in the same range as some other position-switchers or needs-to-gain-weight types with high ceilings to unwrap in a few years.

    Defensive end is a position where the talent apparent in high school translates more directly to an NFL career:

    image

    (and that’s totally the reason I showed this)

    Fortunately for our hopes here the only guy from the three-star bin considered an athlete on the level of Upshaw and Welschof was Shelton Johnson, and his career crumbled for off-field reasons.

    [After THE JUMP: used to be better before I had to rewrite all of it]

    -----------------------------

    Jimmystats: Rostering 2018

    Jimmystats: Rostering 2018

    Submitted by Seth on January 22nd, 2018 at 2:00 PM

    We’re off the shores of offseason and wading toward the Signing Day drop-off, and 247 recently released their final 2018 rankings, so I thought now would be a good time to update my big, useful roster database.

    apologies for giving Rutgers a competitive advantage

    It can tell you fun things, like how this year’s recruiting class stacks up against previous ones:

    image

    (it’s like the 2014 one, ratings-wise)

    …or the NFL outcome of Michigan recruits by their relative star ratings:

    As Recruit Players Rnds 1-3 Rnds 4-7 UDFA+ UDFA No NFL
    ☆☆☆☆☆ 17 9 (53%) 2 (12%) 1 (6%) 2 (12%) 3 (18%)
    ☆☆☆☆½ 64 9 (14%) 12 (19%) 3 (5%) 9 (14%) 31 (48%)
    ☆☆☆☆ 110 17 (15%) 16 (15%) - 1 (1%) 76 (69%)
    ☆☆☆½ 85 2 (2%) 7 (8%) - 1 (1%) 75 (88%)
    ☆☆☆ 113 4 (4%) 7 (6%) 1 (1%) - 101 (89%)
    ☆☆ 14 - - 1 (7%) - 13 (93%)
    Walk-on 26 1 (4%) 1 (4%) - - 24 (92%)

    Or how attrition is going:

    image

    (it has stayed relatively low compared to Rodriguez and Carr)

    image

    (few players are leaving without degrees)

    If you download and play around a bit you can quickly find things like which players each recruiting service adored/didn’t think much of relative to each other:

    Rivals Scout ESPN 247

    Loved

    Steve Breaston Paul Sarantos Marques Walton Benjamin St-Juste
    Conelius Jones Austin White Rueben Riley Cameron McGrone
    Kevin Koger Andrew Stueber Junior Hemingway Nate Johnson
    Jeremy Gallon De'Veon Smith Ja'Raymond Hall Oliver Martin
    Alex Mitchell Patrick Omameh Isaiah Bell Jaylen Mayfield

    Hated

    Ja'Raymond Hall Kingston Davis Kevin Koger Austin White
    Andrew Stueber Alex Mitchell Brandon Smith Conelius Jones
    Brandon Watson Keith Washington Dennis Norfleet Brad Robbins
    Paul Sarantos Gabe Watson Boubacar Cissoko Myles Sims
    Ronnie Bell Reuben Jones Rocko Khoury Zach Gentry

    --------------------------------

    Direct Recruiting Comparisons

    There’s also a second table that shows all of the recruiting data that went into my composite rankings, if you want to quickly compare where the sites put Luke Schoonmaker to Sean McKeon (they’re nearly identical):

    image

    …or place Cam McGrone among Michigan’s all-time linebacker recruits:

    image

    …or settle an argument with the guy who said Mike Hart was “just a three-star”:

    image

    (he was only barely)

    …or just pull up a quick list of who’s eligible for this year’s NFL draft. I mostly use it to put the new recruits in context. Like it’s good to know Christian Turner is basically tied with Chris Evans, that Aidan Hutchinson ended up almost exactly where Ryan Van Bergen was rated, and that Jarrod Wilson and Gemon Green wound up right where Benjamin St-Juste did (German Green is down in the JT Floyd/Courtney Avery/James Rogers region). Seeing a handful of former players whose careers (and ceilings) I’m familiar with is more helpful to placing a croot than where he stands among the thousands of high schoolers of his own year whom I haven’t seen.

    --------------------------------

    Starter Data

    Lastly I updated the starter data with 2017 starts, which by the way featured a lot of stuff like three tight ends or three fullbacks. Those atypical start formations are more helpful than hurtful—it’s accurate to say that Gentry and McKeon were more active in the passing game, for example, than Eddie McDoom or Nate Schoenle.

    You may remember last year was a crazy low bar for starts returning. Things are getting back to normal. Rather than a historically green team Michigan will have a slightly below averagely experienced team:

    image

    The big difference you can’t see here is the distribution of OL starts: last year almost all of the returning OL experience was concentrated in one guy; this year it’s spread out among six dudes: Bredeson, Ruiz, Onwenu, JBB, Ulizio, and Runyan.

    The last bit highlights a flaw in reading returning starts without context: there aren’t many years in trackable Michigan history in which any of those guys would have gotten extensive playing time. It also hides regular contributors who didn’t technically start—2016 Maurice Hurst being the case example.

    Digging down to game-by-game start data gives us a clearer, albeit imperfect, sample of what was on the field. And last year—to the surprise of nobody—it was historically young.

    image

    Let’s put those bars in context: the average starter for Michigan last year on both units was younger than a redshirt sophomore. Only twice in the last 20 years did any one unit dip below that mark: the 2008 offense, and the 2009 defense. I’m sure I don’t have to remind you how that went.

    The bad news here is the offense at least is in for another year of historical youngness, quite likely falling below even this year. I plugged the following projection of 2018 starts: Patterson (13), Evans (6), Higdon (7), Mason (8), McKeon (11), Wheatley (2), Gentry (7), Eubanks (1), Black (10), DPJ (8), Crawford (1), and an OL of Newsome-Bredeson-Ruiz-Onwenu-Hudson, and it came out at an average year in program of 2.67, barely above 2008.

    Does it matter? With the exception of 1997, the peak years do seem to correlate to the teams playing the guys who’ve been around awhile: 1999, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2011, 2012, and 2016. On the other hand Ohio State managed to put up a strong offense in 2016 despite a similarly young roster, though it should be noted they were operating under an experience QB and the young players were holes that got exploited by better teams.

    (I never know what to do here with transfers who’ve started at previous stops. Considering the performance of said transfers when they have played, the most accurate thing to do is to just throw that data out—after all they’re new to the system.)

    The other interesting thing I can do with starter data is to check personnel shifts. In the past I used it to show the relative mass on the field between coaches. But the Harbaughification of the offense is clear in other ways, like starting more tight ends:

    AVG Skill Position Personnel at First Snap
    Season(s) RBs FBs TEs WRs
    Carr 0.99 0.62 1.27 2.11
    Rodriguez 1.22 0.14 0.78 2.86
    Hoke 0.98 0.45 1.12 2.45
    2015 1.02 0.94 1.09 1.95
    2016 1.00 0.69 1.77 1.54
    2017 0.92 0.77 1.92 1.38

    image

    Anyway if you want to download your own copy of my data and play with it, you’re welcome to it. Just share your findings in the diaries.

    Jimmystats: Comps for 2017 Offensive Recruits

    Jimmystats: Comps for 2017 Offensive Recruits

    Submitted by Seth on January 12th, 2017 at 4:23 PM

    Cropselection

    Squint really hard—is there a Lewanlong in there?

    When updating the roster I also of course grabbed the current rankings and star ratings from each site for the committed players. I was having some fun seeing where they fit among past Michigan recruits, and figured I might as well share.

    Explanation of numbers: My☆s” ratings are a composite score on a sliding 5-star scale that averages the available recruiting site data. So for example 247sports had Shane Morris a 95, and the 81st overall recruit. On my scale that would be a 4.4-star, the equivalent of a 5.9 in the top 100 to Rivals, a 4-star in the top 100 on Scout, and an 84 on ESPN. Weights in the second column are as a recruit. Also the old ESPN grades are scaled to match (as best as possible) their modern ratings system. Pre-2002 ratings are not to be trusted because those data I have are mostly just stars, with the occasional top-100 or something, and pre-1996 is the recruiting dark ages.

    Please get the point: This is not a “You might remember me from such players as,” which is based on scouting—you’ll have to wait for the 2017 recruiting posts this spring and summer before we can make those kinds of claims. The tape and offers can sometimes tell a very different story than the scouting services, to say nothing of fit and who’s doing the offering.

    The point here is to orient you as to how highly rated these guys are, because “he’s a 4-star” can mean a ton of things but “he’s right around where Kekoa Crawford ended up” is a mark.

    Quarterback

    Dylan McCaffrey (M rank as recruit since 1995: 9/25)

    Rk Name Cl Ht/Wt* Rivals Scout ESPN 247 ☆s
    4 Jason Kapsner ’96 6'6 /220 - SUPERPREP:
    #7 QB, AA
    LEMMING:
    #1 PRO
    - 4.60
    5 Shane Morris ’13 6'3/183 6.0 (#4 DUAL)
    #81 OVR
    5* (#3 QB)
    #40 OVR
    84 (#8 QB)
    #127 OVR
    95 (#4 PRO)
    #81 OVR
    4.50
    6 Brandon Peters ’16 6'5/216 5.9 (#6 PRO)
    #158 OVR
    4* (#4 QB)
    #77 OVR
    85 (#3 PP)
    #60 OVR
    96 (#4 PRO)
    #34 OVR
    4.45
    7 Tom Brady ’95 6'5/215 - - LEMMING:
    #6 PRO
    - 4.40
    8 Devin Gardner ’10 6'4/195 5.9 (#1 DUAL)
    #132 OVR
    5* (#5 QB)
    #43 OVR
    84 (#5 DT)
    #128 OVR
    96 (#1 DUAL)
    #44 OVR
    4.40
    9 Dylan McCaffrey ’17 6'5/196 6.0 (#4 DUAL)
    #52 OVR
    4* (#8 QB)
    #109 OVR
    84 (#2 PP)
    #60 OVR
    95 (#4 PRO)
    #58 OVR
    4.40
    10 Clayton Richard ’03 6'4/225 4* (#4 PRO)
    #71 OVR
    4* (#13 QB)
    not ranked
    #22 OVR SUPERPREP
    #20 OVR
    4.40
    11 Matt Gutierrez ’02 6'4/206 4* (#5 PRO)
    #96 OVR
    4* (#12 QB)
    not ranked
    #26 OVR - 4.27
    12 Tate Forcier ’09 6'1/184 5.9 (#5 DUAL)
    #164 OVR
    4* (#15 QB)
    #137 OVR
    84 (#14 QB)
    #144 OVR
    - 4.20
    13 Denard Robinson ’09 6'0/179 5.8 (#14 ATH)
    #188 OVR
    4* (#16 CB)
    #159 OVR
    84 (#7 ATH)
    #101 OVR
    - 4.07
    15 Alex Malzone ’15 6'2/205 5.8 (#11 PRO)
    not ranked
    4* (#14 QB)
    #185 OVR
    80 (#16 PP)
    not ranked
    88 (#15 PRO)
    not ranked
    3.80

    Go look at the QB class of 2004 if you doubt a #13 was pretty good.

    Between Devin Gardner and Clayton Richard/Tate Forcier, but I see a closer comp to Shane Morris except taller and more Harbaugh. Like Morris, McCaffrey created disagreement as to whether he’s a pro-style or dual-threat, and he was a consensus five-star before slipping down to wind up a high-ish 4-star. If he slipped a bit further, it’s probably not as much as Shane would have fallen in today’s more dynamic rankings world. McCaffrey may also get moved up a bit as ESPN finalizes their ratings—Brandon Peters was ranked the same nationally—60th overall—but got a score of 85.

    That McCaffrey was recruited by Harbaugh, not Borges, is important. When I went through all the quarterbacks Harbaugh recruited to Stanford the vast majority of his targets wound up good quarterbacks. In 2008 he got Luck and almost got RGIII but for Stanford’s admissions policy. The following year three out of his five offers (Matt Barkley, Taysom Hill, and Brock Osweiler) ended up Heisman candidates, and the other two (Josh Nunes at Stanford and Allan Bridgford at Cal) were starters. As for Borges, his one scouting success story so far is Wilton Speight…after two years of being coached by Harbaugh.

    [Hit THE JUMP for more.]

    Fall Roster Overanalysis 2016!

    Fall Roster Overanalysis 2016!

    Submitted by Seth on August 8th, 2016 at 5:45 PM

    You can jump now Steve:

    Michigan has finally posted their rosters with new weights and freshman numbers and such. I haven't included spring weights this year since they didn't update those on the roster; listed weights as recruits or early enrollees are in the 2015 column, with the recruits in parentheses. The exits of Canteen and Pallante have been covered.

    Remember the rules:

    • All weight gain is burly muscle that won't slow them down AT ALL
    • All weight loss is a guy in the best shape of his life who's going to do crazy fast things as his new svelte self.

    NEW RULE FROM NOW UNTIL THE END OF HARBAUGH:

    • Believe any of it at your own risk. Harbaugh wouldn't hesitate to list Nate Johnson 6'11"/375 pounds if he thought the confusion might gain a yard this year.

    TO THE SPREADSHEETS:

    Quarterbacks
    Player 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 Fall 2016 13 to 14 14 to 15 15 to 16
    Shane Morris 201 204 209 208 213 +3 +4 +5
    Wilton Speight 234 235 239 243   +5 +4
    Alex Malzone 218 222 224     +2
    John O'Korn 209 215     +6
    Brandon Peters       205 216     +11
    Running Backs
    Player 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 Fall 2016 13 to 14 14 to 15 15 to 16
    Drake Johnson 213 211 207 210 201 -2 -1 -9
    De'Veon Smith 224 220 228 228 228 -4 +8 -
    Ty Isaac 225 240 228 230   +3 +2
    Karan Higdon 190 189 189     -
    Kareem Walker       210 207     -3
    Chris Evans       (181) 200     (+19)
    Kingston Davis       225 245     +20
    Fullbacks
    Player 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 Fall 2016 13 to 14 14 to 15 15 to 16
    Bobby Henderson 227 236 240 245 242 +9 +9 -3
    Khalid Hill 258 252 252 263 263 -6 +11 -
    Henry Poggi 260 270 273 266 257 +10 -4 -9
    Receivers
    Player 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 Fall 2016 13 to 14 14 to 15 15 to 16
    Amara Darboh 212 211 216 215 215 -1 +4 -
    Jehu Chesson 196 197 207 200 203 +1 +3 +3
    Drake Harris 176 174 181 188   +5 +7
    Maurice Ways 195 205 210 217   +15 +7
    Grant Perry 185 184 196     +12
    Kekoa Crawford       (175) 195     (+20)
    Ahmir Mitchell       205 205    
    Nate Johnson       (174) 185     (+11)
    Eddie McDoom       (170) 180     (+10)
    Tight Ends
    Player 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 Fall 2016 13 to 14 14 to 15 15 to 16
    Jake Butt 237 249 248 250 250 +12 +1 -
    Ian Bunting 227 243 252 252   +25 -
    Tyrone Wheatley 260 291 276     -15
    Zach Gentry 230 244 244     -
    Nick Eubanks       (208) 236     (+28)
    Devin Asiasi       (253) 287     (+34)
    Sean McKeon       230 240     +10
    Offensive Line
    Player 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 Fall 2016 13 to 14 14 to 15 15 to 16
    Kyle Kalis 302 298 292 305 305 -4 +7 -
    Erik Magnuson 285 294 296 305 305 +9 +11 -
    Ben Braden 318 322 331 322 335 +4 - +13
    Patrick Kugler 287 299 297 302 303 +12 +3 +1
    David Dawson 297 296 309 316 325 -1 +20 +9
    Mason Cole 292 287 305 305   +13 -
    J. Bushell-Beatty 319 319 325 311   +6 -14
    Grant Newsome 280 300 318     +18
    Jon Runyan Jr. 275 304 304     -
    Nolan Ulizio 293 291 291     -
    Michael Onwenu       (367) 350     (-17)
    Stephen Spanellis       (330) 335     (+5)
    Ben Bredeson       (280) 310     (+30)
    Defensive Line
    Player 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 Fall 2016 13 to 14 14 to 15 15 to 16
    Ryan Glasgow 300 296 297 300 299 -4 +4 -1
    Chris Wormley 289 295 300 303 302 +6 +8 -1
    Matthew Godin 280 286 287 288 294 +6 +2 +6
    Taco Charlton 270 275 273 285 272 +5 +10 -13
    Maurice Hurst 270 282 281 282 282 +12 - -
    Chase Winovich 220 227 235 245   +15 +10
    Lawrence Marshall 241 238 250 268   +9 +18
    Bryan Mone 312 325 320 310   +8 -10
    Shelton Johnson 225 212 212     -
    Reuben Jones 225 222 222     -
    M. Dwumfour       (282) 300     (+18)
    Rashan Gary       (290) 287     (-3)
    Ron Johnson       (221) 245     (+24)
    Linebackers
    Player 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 Fall 2016 13 to 14 14 to 15 15 to 16
    Mike McCray 237 241 242 240 248 +4 -1 +8
    Ben Gedeon 236 240 241 248 247 +4 +8 -1
    Wyatt Shallman 237 239 244 245 242 +2 +6 -3
    Jabrill Peppers 202 205 208 205   +6 -3
    Noah Furbush 210 217 242 238   +32 -4
    Jared Wangler 219 230 231 229   +12 -2
    E. Mbem-Bosse       (228) 215     -13
    Carlo Kemp       250 255     +5
    Devin Gil       (204) 230     (+26)
    Devin Bush Jr.       220 232     +12
    Josh Uche       (217) 217     ( – )
    Safeties
    Player 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 Fall 2016 13 to 14 14 to 15 15 to 16
    Delano Hill 205 205 204 212 215   - +7 +3
    Dymonte Thomas 190 193 191 195 199 +3 +2 +4
    Tyree Kinnel 200 201 206     +5
    Khaleke Hudson       (204) 205     (+1)
    Josh Metellus       (187) 204     (+17)
    Cornerbacks
    Player 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 Fall 2016 13 to 14 14 to 15 15 to 16
    Jourdan Lewis 170 175 176 175 186 +5 - +11
    Channing Stribling 171 178 178 181 175 +7 +3 -6
    Jeremy Clark 205 205 205 210 206   - +5 -4
    Brandon Watson 188 189 191 203   +3 +12
    Keith Washington 175 170 170     -
    David Long       (170) 187     (+17)
    Lavert Hill       (173) 168     (-5)

    [Things of GREAT IMPORTANT after the JUMP OF GREAT IMPORTANCE thing.]

    Jimmystats: When the Sites Disagree

    Jimmystats: When the Sites Disagree

    Submitted by Seth on July 7th, 2016 at 3:30 PM

    When Ace was scouting Kai-Leon Herbert, the offensive tackle prospect who announced his commitment to Michigan this week, we took note of the big disagreement in his rankings:

    Scout Rivals ESPN 247 247 Comp

    4*, #22 OT,
    #183 Ovr

    4*, #10 OT,
    #61 Ovr

    4*, 83, #15 OT,
    #106 Ovr

    3*, 86, #72 OT,
    #683 Ovr

    4*, #22 OT,
    #166 Ovr

    Some variation for a project recruit with big upside isn't that weird, but one site having him threatening the top 50 while another has him barely among the top 700 is some serious disparity. BiSB even wondered aloud if big disagreements like that portend anything for a guy. And well, I have a database. Let's see.

    Methodology

    I'm going back to my STARs ratings, which are a composite of the four main recruiting sites' scoring systems/stars/rankings normalized to a sliding scale of five stars. I cut out specialists, then used only players for whom we have at least three rankings to go from, and ran a standard deviation.

    So What Happens When They Agree?

    This wasn't very useful because most of the guys with high agreement were very well scouted (duh) and a few were like the toppomost of the tippytop. There were 12 guys who sparked almost total agreement (ordered by rating):

    Player Class Rivals Scout ESPN 247 STDev
    Rashan Gary 2016 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 0.00
    Jabrill Peppers 2014 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 0.00
    Ben Bredeson 2016 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 0.00
    Justin Boren 2006 4.6 4.6 4.6   0.00
    Chris Fox 2013 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 0.00
    Josh Ross 2017 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 0.00
    M. Witherspoon 2008 4.0 4.0 4.0   0.00
    Ben Braden 2012 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 0.00
    Christian Pace 2010 3.6 3.6 3.6   0.00
    Teric Jones 2009 3.6 3.6 3.6   0.00
    Frank Clark 2011 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 0.00
    J.T. Floyd 2008 3.2 3.2 3.2   0.00

    Teric Jones, Christian Pace, and Chris Fox lost their careers to injury, but after that only Marcus Witherspoon (for off-field reasons) didn't end up a regular starter, pending the careers of Bredeson (who may be the first tackle in this year) and Rashan Gary (who may be the greatest tackle in years).

    So What Happens If They Disagree?

    Here's the 15 biggest disparities. I've highlighted the biggest outliers.

    # Player Class Rivals Scout ESPN 247 STDev
    1 John Ferrara 2006 3.4 3.2 1.8   0.90
    2 Jason Kates 2006 4.0 2.3 3.2   0.88
    3 Austin White 2010 3.6 4.0 3.4 2.0 0.87
    4 Kevin Koger 2008 4.2 4.2 3.0   0.69
    5 Conelius Jones 2010 3.4 2.8 3.4 2.0 0.67
    6 William Campbell 2009 4.8 4.6 3.6   0.64
    7 Junior Hemingway 2007 3.6 3.8 4.8   0.64
    8 Brandon Smith 2008 4.2 4.4 3.2   0.64
    9 Chase Lasater 2017 3.4 2.8 3.2 2.0* 0.62
    10 Brandon Moore 2008 4.0 3.2 4.4   0.61
    11 Isaiah Bell 2009 3.6 3.2 4.4   0.61
    12 Mark Huyge 2007 3.4 2.5 2.3   0.60
    13 Rocko Khoury 2008 3.6 3.4 2.5   0.59
    14 Boubacar Cissoko 2008 4.6 4.6 3.6   0.58
    15 D.J. Williamson 2010 3.2 2.5 3.6   0.56

    *247 hasn't ranked Lasater yet

    Big winners on there are Koger, Hemingway, and Huyge, though BWC turned out okay once Hoke got his hands on him. FWIW the one guy Scout and Rivals really disagreed on before ESPN entered the ring was Alex Mitchell. Meanwhile I had to go back to the blogspot page to find Brian's take on the huge disparity over Junior Hemingway:

    So, yeah... those numbers above disagree fiercely. Hemingway is either in the top 10, 20, 30, or 40 receivers in the country, depending on who you listen to. Rivals went so far as to downgrade him to a three-star after season's end for reasons unknown (read: plain old provincialism on the part of that particular region's rankings guru). Meanwhile, ESPN is freakin' out over here. Scout and Creepy Tom Lemming split the difference.

    Ironically he turned out exactly as advertised:

    Leaving aside his exact proportions of shirtlessness for the moment, Hemingway is a leaper capable of ridiculous grabs. His overall athleticism has been questioned by those skeptical of his talent, but no one debates his body control, leaping ability, and hands.

    The most noticeable thing other than how many of those guys didn't pan out was that ESPN was usually the oddball.

    How Do the Sites Compare?

    Was ESPN always so odd? They ranked Koger as a DE (Brian did posit at the time that a move to DE was likely, since Michigan had few), while Rivals and Scout had him the #4 or #6 tight end. But it came up enough I had to look at them versus the average to see if that was normal:

    pasted_image_at_2016_07_05_02_43_pm_1024

    (click makes big)

    Mathematically (by deviation of squares) they were by far the most likely to disagree with their peers:

    ESPN: 39.73
    Scout: 31.74
    Rivals: 24.09
    247: 13.80

    If they were highly accurate that would be interesting, but as you see by the outliers, only one of the dudes they seemed super-way-excited about even started (though Metellus has time).

    It was also interesting to see which players each site was most panting/skeptical about. I'll highlight if they got it right:

    WHEN THE SITES ARE BEARISH:

    Rivals Scout ESPN 247Sports
    Nolan Ulizio (-0.5) Jason Kates (-0.9) John Ferrara (-1) Austin White (-1.3)
    Bryan Mone (-0.5) Brandon Moore (-0.7) Kevin Koger (-0.8) Conelius Jones (-0.9)
    Jr Hemingway (-0.5) D.J. Williamson (-0.6) Brandon Smith (-0.7) Jake Butt (-0.5)
    Chris Wormley (-0.5) Davion Rogers (-0.6) Will Campbell (-0.7) Jourdan Lewis (-0.4)
    Patrick Omameh (-0.4) Reuben Jones (-0.5) Rocko Khoury (-0.7) Devin Asiasi (-0.4)

    Some of those guys it's too early to tell. But I might be a bit more leery of Rivals skepticism and hoping Reuben Jones proves Scout can be wrong.

    Meanwhile in high expectations, here are the guys certain sites thought would outperform the consensus of their peers:

    WHEN THE SITES ARE BULLISH:

    Rivals Scout ESPN 247
    Jason Kates (+0.9) Austin White (+0.9) Jr Hemingway (+0.7) Chris Wormley (+0.6)
    Mark Huyge (+0.7) P.Omameh (+0.6) Isaiah Bell (+0.7) Nate Johnson (+0.5)
    John Ferrara (+0.6) Josh Furman (+0.5) Brandon Moore (+0.5) Dennis Norfleet (+0.4)
    Greg Mathews (+0.5) Sam McGuffie (+0.5) Q.Washington (+0.5) Erik Magnuson (+0.4)
    Conelius Jones (+0.5) (tie* +0.5) Conelius Jones (+0.5) Mason Cole (+0.4)

    * Marrell Evans, Brandon Smith, Tom Strobel, De'Veon Smith, and John Ferrara.

    Some of the guys I didn't highlight were fine but only insomuch as they met their recruiting expectations. At least Rivals knew before everyone else that Huyge was unkillable but otherwise woooooof. Meanwhile Scout got burned by some major athletes (Furman and McGuffie at least wound up starting elsewhere), but the only real diamond they pointed out was Omameh; the five-way tie varied from slightly too positive (D.Smith, Ferrara) to vastly overrating (Evans, Strobel, B.Smith).

    Of course these are just small sample sizes—useful for gauging extreme outliers but little else. So I used scatter charts to see if there was a major difference in the aggregate, tracking all their recruiting ratings by deviation from the mean and their starts/eligible seasons. The best scouting site would have the most bubbles very high and to the right, and fewest bubbles high and to the left (guys they were skeptical about who got a lot of starts).

    imageimageimageimage

    A few major outliers got cut out but a picture has emerged. When Scout says a guy is good you should probably pay attention. Rivals has a low batting average but will connect as often as they whiff. ESPN appears to lose track of guys who aren't ranked at the very top, so their outliers may be more cautionary than anything. 247 plays it mostly safe but once in awhile takes a calculated risk that usually pays off.

    Or that they're huge Norfleet fans. One understands.

    What does that mean for Herbert and the OL this year?

    image

    We haven't seen this kind of distribution before, honestly. These rankings could change so much before February however that I wouldn't put much stock in them anyway. The Herbert disagreement doesn't look so bad in the STARs. With nothing else to go on, I'd say keep an eye on 247's rating to see if that jumps after the Opening, and otherwise trust that Scout has him pegged.

    Jimmystats: Weight Gain Baseline

    Jimmystats: Weight Gain Baseline

    Submitted by Seth on March 2nd, 2016 at 5:36 PM

    image

    It took that long to regrow 'em

    For a moment yesterday everybody ("everybody" meaning the 10 of us who excessively pour over roster data) got really excited that we might have some spring weights, as a spring roster was apparently circulating among reporters down at IMG. Some people even noticed huge weight differentials between the data on MGoBlue.com's official rosters and the numbers on the spring sheet.

    That was a false alarm: weights on the official website haven't changed since last spring, while except for Nolan Uluzio going up 4 pounds there's no difference between the 2016 spring roster weights and those listed in Michigan's media guide prior to this year's bowl game.

    But it spurred me to finally update all those weight listings on the MGoRoster database. "Wgt" now means the last weight they were listed at on any Michigan roster.

    The excel spreadsheet that is based on has all sorts of historical playing weights and start data too. And I realized that means we can actually say, quite accurately, how big a starter was at any given position.

    image

    Tall and thin or short and squat? Some positions seem to have preferences.

    Methodology: The data are from my heavily edited version of Bentley's database (there are hundreds of errors in there but since they've only ever annoyed myself and Bruce Madej nobody's ever got around to fixing them), and filled in with subsequent roster data from media guides and whatnot. For guys who never enrolled I used their weight as a recruit on Rivals). Snapshots for a year are fall weights.

    I also had to go through my starter data and refine it—originally I broke them up into wider position groups but this required some precise definitions. For the years Michigan went to a 3-4 it was at least obvious which DE was basically a 3-tech versus which correlated to SDE, likewise with the WDE/RLB distinctions, and which ILBs were MLBs or WLBs. The hardest part was parsing out hybrid spots versus when Michigan just started in a nickel, but it was quite obvious by which player they used. If Michigan was using the slot positions in a special way (e.g. slot receivers and spurs under RR), I counted them as such. That includes Funchess as a slot receiver and the base nickel with Countess or Leon Hall, but doesn't include Arrington, Manningham and Greg Mathews lining up anywhere (they're all wide receivers).

    Ultimately I could say things like freshman Henne was X tall and started Y times, and once I had that I could properly weight that in a calculation of all QBs to determine an average QB starter.

    And make charts!

    Chart of freshman weight vs starter weight by position:

    image

    Starters are bigger than freshmen, duh. But certain positions required more growth than others. I thought the disparities at various positions were interesting. Both defensive end-liked positions demanded the biggest gains (even including some pretty tiny starters at times), with WDE (13%), SDE (12%) and DT (6.9%) the top three in starter/recruit disparity:

    Position (starters) Avg Freshman
    Weight
    Avg Starter
    Ht/Weight
    Difference
    Quarterback 204 6'2/216 5.3%
    Running back (1-2) 197 5'11/208 5.1%
    Fullback 232 6'2/238 2.4%
    Slot receiver 174 5/11/178 2.0%
    Wide receiver (2-3) 184 6'2/198 6.7%
    Tight end (1-3) 231 6'4/247 6.7%
    Center 282 6'4/295 4.5%
    Guard (2) 280 6'5/300 6.6%
    Tackle (2) 282 6'6/301 6.5%
    Nose Tackle 289 6'2/298 3.0%
    DT/3-Tech 267 6'5/287 6.9%
    SDE/5-Tech 243 6'4/276 11.9%
    WDE/RLB 226 6'3/259 13.0%
    SAM 224 6'3/239 6.3%
    MLB/ILB 223 6'2/238 6.4%
    WLB/ILB 211 6'1/226 6.5%
    Nickel/Spur 199 6'0/201 1.0%
    Strong safety 193 6'1/203 5.0%
    Free safety 189 6'1/202 6.5%
    Cornerbacks (2) 177 6'0/186 4.6%

    No, they rarely get taller. But I did find it interesting that the slot positions didn't see a lot of change from when those guys stepped on campus to when they graduated. But then they were rather young.

    Chart of Average Starter Age:

    image

    If you didn't click for big you probably can't read on the left axis where it says a ONE equals a TRUE FRESHMAN—I figured that is less mathematical but more intuitive because "5th year senior" etc.

    On average Michigan was starting a guy at least in his third year in the program. But nickel saw a lot of youth, while MLB (yikes!) and center (that seems obvious) rarely strayed from redshirt juniors and seniors unless they couldn't avoid it, or they had David Molk on hand. WLB was often used for MLBs in training.

    I bet quarterback would have been much higher if the last decade's troubles didn't interfere. We can show that.

    image

    Wow, Michigan has had effectively older quarterback play EVERY SEASON since Tate and Denard were freshmen. Let's post this. Or one more thing:

    Effective STAR (recruiting) Ratings of Starters

    Remember all that work I did to create a consensus star rating between the sites, kind of like 247's composite but slightly less useful? Here's how much of it was on the field any given year:

    image

    Poor Rich Rod.

    Fall Roster Overanalysis 2015!

    Fall Roster Overanalysis 2015!

    Submitted by Seth on August 28th, 2015 at 12:06 PM

    They handed out the new phonebooks at yesterday's presser, and the internet managed to captured a shot of them before Steve Martin made off with the lot:

    slack_for_ios_uploadslack_for_ios_upload(1)

    You'll have to click for big. But I've already updated the master spreadsheet with all of it. Remember the rules: all weight gain is burley muscle that won't slow them down AT ALL, and all weight loss is a guy in the best shape of his life who's going to do crazy fast things as his new svelte self.

    TO THE SPREADSHEETS!

    Quarterbacks
    Player 2012 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 12 to 13 13 to 14 14 to 15
    Jake Rudock         203      
    Shane Morris   201 204 209 208   +3 +4
    Wilton Speight     234 235 239     +5
    Zach Gentry       230 244      
    Alex Malzone       218 222      
    John O'Korn         209      
    Running Backs
    Player 2012 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 12 to 13 13 to 14 14 to 15
    Drake Johnson 203 213 211 207 210 +10 -2 -1
    De'Veon Smith   224 220 228 228   -4 +8
    Derrick Green   240 220 234 225   -20 +5
    Ty Isaac     225 240 228     +3
    R.Taylor-Douglas     189 186 193     +4
    Karan Higdon       190 189      
    Joe Kerridge 244 238 244 249 248 -6 +6 +4
    Sione Houma 221 231 242 243 242 +10 +11 -
    Wyatt Shallman   237 239 244 245   +2 +6
    Bobby Henderson   227 236 240 245   +9 +9
    Receivers
    Player 2012 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 12 to 13 13 to 14 14 to 15
    Amara Darboh 218 212 211 216 215 -6 -1 +4
    Jehu Chesson 183 196 197 207 200 +13 +1 +3
    Jaron Dukes   190 197 204 204   +7 +7
    Da'Mario Jones   192 196 199 195   +4 -1
    Drake Harris     176 174 181     +5
    Freddy Canteen     176 185 182     +6
    Maurice Ways     195 205 210     +15
    Brian Cole       200 207      
    Grant Perry       185 184      
    Tight Ends
    Player 2012 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 12 to 13 13 to 14 14 to 15
    A.J. Williams 282 265 260 285 275 -17 -5 +15
    Jake Butt   237 249 248 250   +12 +1
    Khalid Hill   258 252 252 263   -6 +11
    Henry Poggi   260 270 273 266   +10 -4
    Ian Bunting     227 243 252     +25
    Chase Winovich     220 227 235     +15
    Tyrone Wheatley Jr.       260 291      
    Offensive Line
    Player 2012 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 12 to 13 13 to 14 14 to 15
    Graham Glasgow 305 303 311 303 301 -2 +8 -10
    Kyle Kalis 292 302 298 292 305 +10 -4 +7
    Erik Magnuson 290 285 294 296 305 -5 +9 +11
    Ben Braden 319 318 322 331 322 -1 +4 -
    Blake Bars 282 291 294 281 290 +9 +3 -4
    Patrick Kugler   287 299 297 302   +12 +3
    David Dawson   297 296 309 316   -1 +20
    L. Tuley-Tillman   300 290 309 302   -10 +12
    Mason Cole     292 287 305     +13
    J. Bushell-Beatty     319 319 325     +6
    Grant Newsome       280 300      
    Jon Runyan Jr.       275 304      
    Nolan Ulizio       293 291      
    Defensive Line
    Player 2012 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 12 to 13 13 to 14 14 to 15
    Ryan Glasgow 285 300 296 297 300 +15 -4 +4
    Willie Henry 302 306 293 311 307 +4 -13 +14
    Mario Ojemudia 223 250 251 252 252 +27 +1 +1
    Chris Wormley 268 289 295 300 303 +21 +6 +8
    Matthew Godin 270 280 286 287 288 +10 +6 +2
    Tom Strobel 250 265 268 270 282 +15 +3 +14
    Taco Charlton   270 275 273 285   +5 +10
    Maurice Hurst Jr.   270 282 281 282   +12 -
    Lawrence Marshall     241 238 250     +9
    Bryan Mone     312 325 320     +8
    Brady Pallante     263 276 280     +17
    Shelton Johnson       225 212      
    Reuben Jones       225 222      
    Linebackers
    Player 2012 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 12 to 13 13 to 14 14 to 15
    R. Jenkins-Stone 206 225 234 240 245 +19 +9 +11
    Allen Gant 196 212 223 225 227 +16 +11 +4
    Desmond Morgan 230 228 232 236 244 -2 +4 +12
    James Ross III 225 220 227 232 241 -5 +7 +14
    Joe Bolden 224 225 231 232 237 +1 +6 +6
    Mike McCray   237 241 242 240   +4 -1
    Ben Gedeon   236 240 241 248   +4 +8
    Dan Liesman   215 229 233 228   +14 -1
    Noah Furbush     210 217 242     +32
    Jared Wangler     219 230 231     +12
    Safeties
    Player 2012 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 12 to 13 13 to 14 14 to 15
    Jarrod Wilson 195 200 205 210 210 +5 +5 +5
    Jeremy Clark 191 205 205 205 210 +14 - +5
    Delano Hill   205 205 204 212   - +7
    Dymonte Thomas   190 193 191 195   +3 +2
    Jabrill Peppers     202 205 208     +6
    Tyree Kinnel       200 201      
    Cornerbacks
    Player 2012 2013 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 12 to 13 13 to 14 14 to 15
    Terry Richardson 154 167 170 174 175 +13 +3 +5
    Wayne Lyons         197      
    Jourdan Lewis   170 175 176 175   +5 -
    C. Stribling   171 178 178 181   +7 +3
    Reon Dawson   170 178 175 181   +8 +3
    Brandon Watson     188 189 191     +3
    Keith Washington       175 170      

    [jump for items of interest and interest]

    Spring Roster Overanalysis 2015!

    Spring Roster Overanalysis 2015!

    Submitted by Seth on February 24th, 2015 at 2:03 PM

    We get excited about certain things around these parts. Like fun-to-size ratios. And new official rosters with updated weights. We've had 24 hours to parse the Spring data, and with Brian on the road today it's up to me to see how they've grown:

    Things of [a Certain Definition of] Interest:

    • Brady Pallante is a fullback
    • Ross Douglas is listed as Ross Taylor-Douglas, and is back at corner
    • Ian Bunting is up to 6'7/243
    • A.J. Williams is up to offensive tackle size (6'6/285)

    Weight Gain/Loss 2000

    A reminder of internet policy on weight changes: all weight gain is muscle fiber, all weight lost was fat, and all static weight means fat was replaced with muscle fiber. I've highlighted things discussed after.

    Player '11 '12 '13 S'14 F'14 Sp'15 '11- '12 '12-'13 '13-'14 '14- 15

    Quarterbacks

    Shane Morris     202 202 204 209     2 5
    Wilton Speight       230 234 235       1
    Alex Malzone           218       N/A

    Running Back

    Derrick Green     240 227 220 234     -20 14
    DeVeon Smith     224 223 220 228     -4 8
    Drake Johnson   203 213 212 211 207   10 -2 -4
    Ty Isaac         225 240       15

    Fullback & Tight End

    Joe Kerridge     238 247 244 249     6 5
    Sione Houma   221 231 240 242 243   10 11 1
    Wyatt Shallman     237 243 239 244     2 5
    Brady Pallante         263 276       13
    A.J. Williams   282 265 263 260 285   -17 -5 25
    Jake Butt     237 250 249 248     12 -1
    Khalid Hill     258 255 252 252     -6 0
    Ian Bunting         227 243       16

    Wide Receiver

    Amara Darboh   218 212 214 211 216   -6 -1 5
    Jehu Chesson   183 196 195 197 207   13 1 10
    Dennis Norfleet   170 169 167 169 168   -1 0 -1
    Freddy Canteen       170 176 185       9
    Da'Mario Jones     192 198 196 199     4 3
    Jaron Dukes     190 200 197 204     7 7
    Maurice Ways         195 205       10
    Drake Harris       180 176 174       -2
    Brian Cole           200       N/A

    Offensive Line

    Jack Miller 263 287 290 297 299 297 24 3 9 -2
    Patrick Kugler     287 295 299 297     12 -2
    Graham Glasgow     303 308 311 303     8 -8
    Kyle Kalis   292 302 304 298 292   10 -4 -6
    David Dawson     297 295 296 309     -1 13
    Dan Samuelson     283 282 292 289     9 -3
    Ben Braden   299 318 319 322 331   19 4 9
    Mason Cole       275 292 287       -5
    Erik Magnuson   290 285 295 294 296   -5 9 2
    Blake Bars   282 291 290 294 281   9 3 -13
    Chris Fox     338 310 309 303     -29 -6
    L. Tuley-Tillman     300 290 290 309     -10 19
    J. Bushell-Beatty         319 319       0

    Defensive Line

    Ryan Glasgow   294 300 300 296 297   6 0 -4
    Bryan Mone       315 312 325       13
    Ondre Pipkins   337 315 313 306 317   -22 -9 11
    Willie Henry   302 306 297 293 311   4 -13 18
    Matthew Godin   270 280 283 286 287   10 6 1
    Maurice Hurst Jr.     270 277 282 281     12 -1
    Chris Wormley   268 289 292 295 300   21 6 5
    Taco Charlton     270 275 275 273     5 -2
    Tom Strobel   250 265 268 268 270   15 3 2
    Henry Poggi     260 271 270 273     10 3
    Mario Ojemudia   223 250 250 251 252   27 1 1
    Lawrence Marshall         241 238       -3

    Linebacker

    Desmond Morgan 220 230 228 232 232 236 10 -2 4 4
    James Ross   225 220 225 227 232   -5 7 5
    Joe Bolden   230 225 225 231 232   -5 6 1
    R. Jenkins-Stone   206 225 221 234 240   19 9 6
    Allen Gant   196 212 222 223 225   16 11 2
    Ben Gedeon     236 236 240 241     4 1
    Mike McCray     237 242 241 242     4 1
    Chase Winovich         220 227       7
    Noah Furbush         210 217       7
    Jared Wangler         219 230       11

    Safety

    Jarrod Wilson   190 200 202 205 210   10 5 5
    Delano Hill     205 205 205 204     0 -1
    Dymonte Thomas     190 191 193 191   0 3 -2
    Jeremy Clark   191 205 206 205 205   14 0 0
    Jabrill Peppers         202 205       3

    Cornerback

    Blake Countess 176 182 182 183 180 185 6 0 -2 5
    Jourdan Lewis     170 174 175 176     5 1
    Terry Richardson   154 167 172 170 174   13 3 4
    Ross Douglas     176 186 189 186     13 -3
    Reon Dawson     170 178 178 175     8 -3
    Brandon Watson       185 188 189       1
    Channing Stribling     171 176 178 178     7 0

    [Hit the jump for discussion on this and other bits I could glean.]

    Fall Roster Overanalysis 2014!

    Fall Roster Overanalysis 2014!

    Submitted by Brian on July 24th, 2014 at 1:41 PM

    The phonebooks are here, ladies and gentlemen, and you know what that means.

    TO THE SPREADSHEET!

    QUARTERBACK

    Player 2011 2012 Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Fall 2014 11 to 12 12 to 13 13 to 14
    Devin Gardner 205 206 210 218 216 1 4 6
    Russell Bellomy 189 201 215 210 206 12 14 -9
    Shane Morris     202 202 204     2
    Wilton Speight       230 234     N/A

    RUNNING BACK

    Player 2011 2012 Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Fall 2014 11 to 12 12 to 13 13 to 14
    Justice Hayes 176 183 192 190 194 7 9 2
    Drake Johnson   203 213 212 211   10 -2
    Sione Houma   221 231 240 242   10 11
    Joe Kerridge     238 247 244     6
    De'Veon Smith     224 223 220     -4
    Derrick Green     240 227 220     -20
    Ty Isaac         225     N/A
    Wyatt Shallman     237 243 239     2
    Ross Douglas     176 186 189     13

    WIDE RECEIVER

    Player 2011 2012 Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Fall 2014 11 to 12 12 to 13 13 to 14
    Devin Funchess   225 235 230 230   10 -5
    Amara Darboh   218 212 214 211   -6 -1
    Jehu Chesson   183 196 195 197   13 1
    Dennis Norfleet   170 169 167 169   -1 0
    Jaron Dukes     190 200 197     7
    Csont'e York     180 194 191     11
    Da'Mario Jones     192 198 196     4
    Freddy Canteen       170 176     N/A
    Drake Harris       180 176     N/A
    Mo Ways         195     N/A

    TIGHT END

    Player 2011 2012 Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Fall 2014 11 to 12 12 to 13 13 to 14
    Keith Heitzman 251 254 280 271 258 3 26 -22
    AJ Williams   282 265 263 260   -17 -5
    Jake Butt     237 250 249   12
    Khalid Hill     258 255 252     -6
    Ian Bunting         227     N/A

    OFFENSIVE LINE

    Player 2011 2012 Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Fall 2014 11 to 12 12 to 13 13 to 14
    Jack Miller 263 287 290 297 299 24 3 9
    Blake Bars   282 291 290 294   9 3
    Ben Braden   299 318 319 322   19 4
    Kyle Kalis   292 302 304 298   10 -4
    Erik Magnuson   290 285 295 294   -5 9
    Kyle Bosch     302 301 303     1
    Logan Tuley-Tillman     300 290 290     -10
    David Dawson     297 295 296     -1
    Graham Glasgow     303 308 311     8
    Dan Samuelson     283 282 292     9
    Patrick Kugler     287 295 299     12
    Chris Fox     338 310 309     -29
    Mason Cole       275 292     N/A
    Juwann Bushell-Beatty         319     N/A

    DEFENSIVE LINE

    Player 2011 2012 Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Fall 2014 11 to 12 12 to 13 13 to 14
    Frank Clark 228 260 277 270 277 32 17 0
    Brennen Beyer 225 252 250 256 256 27 -2 6
    Matt Godin   270 280 283 286   10 6
    Willie Henry   302 306 297 293   4 -13
    Ondre Pipkins   337 315 313 306   -22 -9
    Tom Strobel   250 265 268 268   15 3
    Chris Wormley   268 289 292 295   21 6
    Mario Ojemudia   223 250 250 251   27 1
    Taco Charlton     270 275 275     5
    Maurice Hurst     270 277 282     12
    Henry Poggi     260 271 270     10
    Bryan Mone       315 312     N/A
    Brady Pallante         263     N/A
    Lawrence Marshall         241     N/A

    LINEBACKER

    Player 2011 2012 Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Fall 2014 11 to 12 12 to 13 13 to 14
    Jake Ryan 230 242 240 235 236 12 -2 -4
    Desmond Morgan 220 230 228 232 232 10 -2 4
    Allen Gant   196 212 222 223   16 11
    Royce Jenkins-Stone   206 225 221 234   19 9
    James Ross   225 220 225 227   -5 7
    Joe Bolden   230 225 225 231   -5 6
    Ben Gedeon     236 236 240     4
    Mike McCray     237 242 241     4
    Michael Ferns       233 239     N/A
    Noah Furbush         210     N/A
    Chase Winovich         220     N/A
    Jared Wangler         219     N/A

    CORNERBACK

    Player 2011 2012 Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Fall 2014 11 to 12 12 to 13 13 to 14
    Raymon Taylor 169 183 183 182 184 14 0 1
    Delonte Hollowell 164 177 180 175 178 13 3 -2
    Blake Countess 176 182 182 183 180 6 0 -2
    Terry Richardson   154 167 172 170   13 3
    Jourdan Lewis     170 174 175     5
    Channing Stribling     171 176 178     7
    Reon Dawson     170 178 178     8
    Brandon Watson       185 188     N/A
    Jabrill Peppers         202     N/A

    SAFETY

    Player 2011 2012 Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Fall 2014 11 to 12 12 to 13 13 to 14
    Jarrod Wilson   190 200 202 205   10 5
    Jeremy Clark   191 205 206 205   14 0
    Dymonte Thomas     190 191 193   0 3
    Delano Hill     205 205 205     0

    ITEMS OF INTEREST

    Peppers is big and stuff. He's over 200 while no other corner cracks 185; he is essentially the size of Michigan's safeties. Which might be good because he might be a safety. Also of note: the other freshman corner is also larger than all other corners.

    Derrick Green continues being serious. Down a full 20 pounds from last year's 240.

    Yo-yo-ing is bad for your health, Keith. Or whatever. But he put on all that weight to play DE/DT and now Michigan is all like SYKE.

    Jenkins-Stone now plausible. A worrying drop to 221 in spring was followed by a rebound and now he's pretty decent size for a WLB. Or SAM in the over. You know what I mean.

    I thought you were supposed to be huge? I listed Furbush at 240 in his recruiting profile and thought that was a bit conservative since many recruiting evaluations started with "as big or bigger than his listed size." Instead he checks in at 210. Typo? Malaria? Weird optical illusion wherein everyone sees a much larger person than is actually there? I mean, dude is not ten pounds lighter than Jared Wangler, right? I'm confused? I keep asking questions?

    More generally. There really seems to be no reason to play any of the freshman LBs other than Ferns. You've got a three deep and they're 220. Redshirts for all.

    Funchess 2.0? I see Bunting listed at 6'7", 227 and see visions of busted blocks and eventual resignation to the fact that you've got a 6'7" WR with skillet hands. For a given definition of "resignation." 

    Hello redshirt. Drake Harris was already dinged up and now he's dropped weight. He's now the same weight as Canteen and listed at three inches taller.

    DL increments. Not a ton of huge swings there but Henry did drop 13 pounds, hopefully so he can stay on the field longer without tiring out and seeing his technique fall apart. Hurst is still a bit short of ideal at 282. Wish Beyer could have added more than six pounds from last year; must be physically tapped out. Ditto Ojemudia. Seems like he's just about done expanding.

    Cole expanding. Mason Cole going from 275 to 292 means breaking the glass on his redshirt is only 90% of a Total Panic Experience instead of 100%. The rest of the OL seems to be converging on 300 pounds from various directions with the exception of Ben Braden, who is just enormous.

    Big enough. I think it's 50/50 Glasgow starts at tackle. Both Kugler and Miller are 299, which is large enough, and he looked good there in spring.