basketball scheduling
rpi exploit

An Open Letter To Larry, The Dude Scheduling Michigan Basketball Comment Count

Brian

121711-AJC-basketball-Michigan-vs-Alabama-A-and-M-31_display

never again please

Dude. Larry. We have to talk:

Coming off a 2-27 season, the Bulldogs will play at Michigan at Crisler Center on Thursday, Dec. 21, according to a contract for the game obtained by MLive. U-M will pay Alabama A&M a guarantee of $95,000 for making the trip.

Coach Willie Hayes' team finished No. 351 out of 351 teams in both the RPI and Kenpom's efficiency ranking in 2016-17.

Its lone wins came over Mississippi Valley State (344) and Prairie View A&M (313). The Bulldogs finished last in the Southwestern Athletic Conference.

This is literally the worst possible game Michigan can schedule. Not only is it an offensive blowout in the making the likes of the Delaware State football game, it is poison to Michigan's RPI. Any SWAC team is an anchor; the worst SWAC team is even more so. A win against a team like Alabama A&M hurts your RPI. It would be better to simply not play that game.

Compounding matters:

John Beilein has previously indicated that there's a chance Michigan will not play a 31-game slate. He told reporters at the NBA Draft Combine that due to a condensed schedule -- the result of two Big Ten games being moved to early December and the conference tournament being moved a week earlier to Feb. 28-March 4 -- he will not shoehorn in an ill-advised game simply to get to 31.

You're not even going to play a full schedule because of Jim Delany! If you've opened the door to not playing games, this is the game you do not play. Nobody buying a season ticket is going to miss it. You are actively harming your RPI by playing it. An intrasquad scrimmage would be better preparation for the rest of the season. There is literally no reason to do this. And yet. Here we are.

I wrote about how to make your schedule pretty five years ago. (Not coincidentally, Alabama A&M was on the schedule that year as well.) Find high-win teams from lower leagues who you have a 98% chance of beating instead of a 99% chance. This has a material impact on your NCAA seedings, as this year's tournament amply demonstrated. A patently undeserving Minnesota got a five-seed this year because they paid attention to the RPI's flaws:

That and that alone was why Minnesota got a 5 seed and Wisconsin, which had a superior resume by any measure that was not an archaic and barely-tuned formula, got an 8. This matters, and every year Michigan plays two to four of the worst teams in the country. You're killing your father, Larry.

Comments

Maizen

June 14th, 2017 at 2:57 PM ^

Good question, and I'm not sure anyone has the answer. My two cents: I think its idiotic that he waits until the summer before a prospects junior year to offer when other programs have put out offers two years in advance. Asking kids to spend money and come to campus before they get an offer is silly too. Imagine if Harbaugh did that. I just think it's archaic and sort of insulting to kids who may not have a lot of money. I also think he hates the idea of one and dones and doesn't even bother recruiting those kids. The fact that guys like Jaylen Brown and Mo Bamba had to ask to be recruited is a huge inidctment. It's part of college basketball, either embrace it or get left behind. I'm not saying we need a whole team of them, but this is Michigan and they can attract McDonalds kids but Beilein doesn't want them for the most part. He's always been most comfortbale recruiting against mid major schools and lower profile power 5 teams. I also think it may be as simple as he's just not a good recruiter. He doesn't play the game on the AAU circuit like other guys do and it hurts him. Compare that to Harbaugh who is looking for every loophole in the rulebook to get an advantage. Meanwhile JB is actively trying not to go anywhere near what would be considered a gray line. If you aren't going to pay for players then this makes no sense. It's also well known he doesn't do much recruiting during the season. When you add all this up UM is playing a continual game of catch up more often than not. I will say this though, JB has an eye for talent like few coaches in the country. He knows what he wants and that's important.

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ca_prophet

June 15th, 2017 at 4:26 AM ^

Have an upvote.

That said, the hoops scheduling doesn't appear to be nearly as much under the coach's control/influence as the football schedule.  That probably has as much to do with those coaches' personalities and the attention the AD pays as the coaches themselves, and so I'm not sure who should shoulder the blame here.

Put another way, if Coach complains and it's not fixed, that's one thing.  If he's not complaining, that's another.

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bronxblue

June 14th, 2017 at 2:52 PM ^

That's fine.  I agree with that general sentiment.  

At the same time, how you deliver a point and the point itself can meld together.  Saying "I disagree with Beilein scheduling a bad OOC team" is one way, but "Beilein is killing Michigan's RPI again" and then using inflamatory statements is another.  How the medicine is given does matter to an extent.

 

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Maizen

June 14th, 2017 at 2:59 PM ^

No idea, sounds like you have a lot of time on your hands though. But this is like calling out Jim Harbaugh out for picking a fight with Saban, Kirby Smart, Paul Finebaum, etc when they are the ones who threw the first punch. No different here. I'm not going to say anything disrespectful unprompted.

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bronxblue

June 14th, 2017 at 1:32 PM ^

I mean, your original post was all about "As Brian said...", so it's not a shock that Brian would still agree with you.

You put forth a post that basically said Beilein screwed over Michigan again, continuing your general distaste for him and his coaching, and then upvoted yourself throughout.  So no, there is a world in which you could be right and not be a dick about it.

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AZBlue

June 14th, 2017 at 1:11 PM ^

This is how you complain about scheduling. Give reasoned, calm arguments with facts to back them up. Do NOT assign all the blame on a single individual or coach (particularly if you are known to extremely dislike said coach).

Also - unfortunately this post will probably have just as much affect as the previous ones by Brian.....zero. Hopefully someone in the AD eventually looks at the facts and/or articles like this or the recent "how Kentucky totally gamed the RPI this year" (something very close to that) that keep coming out year over year.

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Maizen

June 14th, 2017 at 1:19 PM ^

I do not dislike Beilein, in fact I like him quite a bit. Michigan is lucky to have John Beilein. He's done a lot for UM basketball, and I'm glad his team proved me wrong last year. That said I'm still going to call things like I see it, and while I don't expect everyone to agree with me I expect them to be respectful. Yeah that's a longshot, we've reached the stage where no matter what I say people are going to continue to throw things back in my face. 

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NittanyFan

June 14th, 2017 at 1:18 PM ^

if Michigan decides to play only 29 (or 30) games instead of the possible 31.  

AAMU's (bad) numbers would then comprise 1/29 of the various downstream numbers involved in RPI calculations (aggregate opponent's record, aggregate opponent's opponents records), as opposed to 1/31.

1/29 isn't that much different versus 1/31, of course.  But it is different --- and yet another way in which scheduling this game makes no sense from a mathematics POV.

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J.

June 14th, 2017 at 3:53 PM ^

This is absolutely correct.  I won't repeat my calculations from the deleted thread, but suffice it to say, Michigan's RPI was boosted appreciably by winning the Big Ten Tournament last year, because it diluted the effects of the RPI anchors and added a lot of additional high-major opponents, at least one of which played an RPI-fluff schedule (thanks, Little Richard!)

So, while I would totally be on board with Michigan winning the Big Ten tournament every year, it seems like a poor idea to depend upon that for tournament positioning.

Michigan's final seed suggests that they were in somewhat serious danger of missing the tournament / being a first four seed if they'd lost the BTT opener.  That needn't have been the case, and the RPI makes up a big part of that.

(Also: Don't lose to bad OSU teams at home.  But the scheduling is a simpler fix).

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AC1997

June 14th, 2017 at 1:14 PM ^

In all seriousness, it is obvious that MGoBlog has developed legit connections within the AD based on the last few years.  Is there any chance that this type of piece actually lands on someone's smartphone inside the AD and they learn from it?  

I know we live in a world where we constantly see examples of people doing things that don't pass even a common sense test, but this is just silly.  I can't see any justification for a game like this - zero.  Unless the AD of Alabama A&M has compromising pictures they're using to blackmail Michigan into scheduling another game with them, I don't get it at all.

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MI Expat NY

June 14th, 2017 at 2:40 PM ^

Someone needs to put together a serious presentation on non-conference scheduling and RPI impact and send it to everyone remotely connected to the basketball team.  That should either educate the people that obviously need educating, or provide ammo to someone that already has a pretty good idea that the scheduling is a problem.

It's easy to say "they already know all this, yet do it anyway," but is that really true?  Basketball coaches have a ton to worry about, isn't it possible that the idea that the system can be manipulated by means other than simply winning or losing basketball games, is something they haven't spent their precious time thinking about?  We know that some schools do schedule "right," but many, maybe even the majority, do not.  It's quite possible that the basketball program (or those that matter to scheduling) simply don't realize the extent of the RPI handicap crappy scheduling creates.  

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J.

June 14th, 2017 at 3:58 PM ^

While it's certainly possible that they don't know, I think the more likely answer is that they (Beilein, mostly) don't (doesn't) care.  I imagine there are other priorities that go into the scheduling.  If it's "who will come for the least money," I'll be unhappy.  If it's "I want to help the SWAC/MEAC schools by getting their players a TV game and a chance to play in a Big Ten arena," well, perhaps I could tip my hat to that (but I wish we'd do it less often).

Perhaps someone (Ace? Seth? Who's got the press pass? :-) could ask Coach Beilein about scheduling during an interview.  Something like, "What are your priorities when it comes to non-conference scheduling?  How much of a role does the RPI play?"

I'd feel more confident in my criticism if I knew the criteria Michigan is using here.

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mgobleu

June 14th, 2017 at 1:18 PM ^

Brian, if you're going to compare a game to a REAL offensive non-conference blowout, wouldn't the Rutgers game last year be a better one to use? I mean 78-0... Wait, what?... Yeah whatever. Funny funny. Huh? Rutgers? Bullshit. I suppose next you're gonna tell me that "crabcakes and football" MARYLAND is a Big Ten school all of a sudden too. Time to lay off the schneef, cokehead.

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Don

June 14th, 2017 at 1:20 PM ^

Craptastically biased officiating, the insanity of neutral sites for hockey playoff games, mindless restrictions on football camps, and inexplicable scheduling are just a start.

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KTisClutch

June 14th, 2017 at 1:28 PM ^

Beilein likes these games. I'm sure he is at least somewhat aware of their RPI implications, and he thinks the benefits outweigh the negatives. We will continue to have this argument every year. Is it frustrating? Yes. Is it something I'll lose sleep over? No.

Scheduling these games allows JB to schedule cool home and homes with the likes of UCLA and Texas. Meanwhile RPI gamers like UK and Duke don't play away games except for a rivalry (UL vs UK) or through an obligation (Big Ten-ACC Chanllenge).

And if the committee would just get their heads out of their asses then this wouldn't even be a big deal.

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Toe Meets Leather

June 14th, 2017 at 2:25 PM ^

But isn't the idea here to still play opponents albeit with a slightly higher chance of loss but still basically a gimme? You still build team chemistry and can develop young/bench players.

IMO there really is not a significant benefit to playing the dregs of the dregs that you can't also achieve playing slightly better teams. In the worst case scenario a loss to one of these teams would also hurt less than say NJIT. 

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MI Expat NY

June 14th, 2017 at 2:43 PM ^

Why would scheduling slightly better body bag games impact the ability to schedule home and homes with UCLA and Texas?  Nobody is suggesting we shouldn't schedule some non-conference home games we should win easily.  We're simply suggesting that instead of scheduling the worst teams from the worst conferences, you schedule either mediocre teams from decent mid major conferences or good teams from bad, not awful conferences.  

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bronxblue

June 14th, 2017 at 1:30 PM ^

I said it in the Maizen thread and I'll say it here:  Michigan gets into the tournament and gets seeded mostly on their own merits and the conference overall.  The team wasn't under-seeded demonstrably this year; they got hot at the end of the year, but overall they looked like a 7-seed.  And the conference overall was underseeded a bit, but it was also underseeded because it didn't look all that great.  And in the end, Michigan's RPI was 25th in the country; it's hard to imagine playing, I don't know, UT-Arlington would have dramatically changed.  Beating Purdue, MSU, Minnesota, Wisconsin, etc. have much more of an impact.

Beilein has a system that works for him.  He books a couple of tough OOC games (UCLA, Texas, Big10/ACC challenge, Maui Invitational), and then schedules teams that he feels gives his chance to get a good win and mature.  Michigan's clubs almost always start off slow and improve as the season progresses, and there's a strong argument to be made that picking up early-season wins gives Michigan a shiny record and let's them work out some kinks in lower-pressure situations.  

And in the end, I just don't get why people get that worried about scheduling.  Get mad at Delaney adding Rutgers and screwing up meatchups so you only play one game against Minnesota on the road.  Get mad about scheduling conference tournaments in the middle of DC.  But I don't care if Beilein signs up a couple body-bag games, and the teams that have struggled to get into the tourney struggled because they were bubble teams, not because they were screwed by RPI.  

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bronxblue

June 14th, 2017 at 1:40 PM ^

But Michigan's RPI was 25 at the end of the year.  Minnesota's was 20.  The OOC was admittedly more demonstrable (44 vs. 6), but for example Purdue's numbers were 19/41 and they were seeded as a 4.  So shockingly, the NCAA tournament is run by dumb people who are wildly inconsistent in their seeding, and believing one particular system rewards you over others isn't a given.

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Trader Jack

June 14th, 2017 at 2:43 PM ^

Sure, but they didn't. That would be like saying it would've been "a sweaty selection Sunday" if they didn't beat Wisconsin and Purdue.

Obviously it would've been, but they did beat those teams. Their RPI was 25; it doesn't matter what could've happened to prevent that.... because none of it happened.

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