Trohlololo

Michigan 59, Wisconsin 64 Comment Count

Seth February 15th, 2023 at 12:39 AM

Wisconsin played terribly, missing every field goal for the last 10 minutes of the game to allow a 12-point lead to fall to two. To compensate, the officiating might have set a new Trohl Center record for lopsidedness. The difference then, was Michigan, or at least most of Michigan, once again failing to score, play defense, or rebound in another close resume loss.

With Terrance Williams II out with a deep knee bruise, Will Tschetter started at the four. The energy boost he provided however wore off as Wisconsin took advantage of his lack of athleticism (and some Jett mistakes) to start on a 5-0 run of open baskets. Michigan responded with a 6-point run with Dickinson and Tschetter playing high-low, but it was quickly evident that Michigan was playing at best even athletically with the unathletic Badgers.

Hunter Dickinson brought the full heel experience after comments on a podcast about Wisconsin's less-than-gentlemanly style of basketball. He also walked into the stadium wearing a ski mask, commenting they intended to "steal one." What he didn't bring was any rebounding. The Badgers, who barely ever contest the glass on the offensive end, were able to persistently hound Dickinson from behind. All told, Wisconsin collected 15 offensive boards off of their 42 misses (36 percent).

None was more devastating than their last. Michigan had used Wisconsin's long cold spell and an NBA-esque explosion of isolation pullups by Kobe Bufkin to claw back to within two with 44 seconds remaining. As he had all night, Wisconsin's Tyler Wahl missed a hook shot, with Dickinson in position to collect. But UW center Steven Crowl got his arms wrapped up inside just enough to hamper the collection, the ball caromed out to Connor Essegian, and Kobe Bufkin was whistled for a foul while trying to prevent the disaster.

Some of those rebounding follies led to some ludicrously long Wisconsin possessions. Shortly after the Under 12 timeout the Michigan defense managed to force UW into a long contested three with the clock running out. That shot popped up over Jace Howard and Wisconsin reset, but that extra possession led only to a trapped Tyler Wohl, who threw up a prayer versus a triple team that nobody was able to collect until it kneed back out to Wisconsin. Again Wisconsin drove, Tschetter drew contact and fell down trying to get the charge call, but with none coming Joey Baker had to foul. Two possessions later we hit the Under-8 timeout.

Michigan had plenty of opportunities to win even with the embarrassing performance on the glass. The Kenpom prediction of a one-point Michigan win held at the half after Kobe Bufkin hit a pullup three at the end of a clock rundown. Bufkin was by far Michigan's best player, at both ends, while Dickinson was barely better than Crowl, and other matchups, especially on defense, went decidedly for the home team.

Much of that was on the visitors' freshmen routinely getting lost on the Badgers' screens. Both Jett Howard and Dug McDaniel were peeled off after not reacting to Wisconsin's actions. An attempt to play Joey Baker, Will Tschetter, and Hunter Dickinson together exposed their combined athletic limitations. An attempt to go zone left open that same left corner that's been open all season.

One possession before *The One Hunter Really Needed to Come Down With* Michigan had a golden opportunity to tie as the Badgers overplayed Dickinson on the drive, leaving Tschetter all alone in the lane. But Cheddar couldn't get high enough to do more than collect the foul, then missed both free throws. If Juwan Howard's decision to ride with Tschetter over Tarris Reed in those situations was already under question, that sequence didn't help.

It also didn't help that Reed's offense, including his free throw shooting, was looking better than Tschetter's. Even accounting for his significantly larger size, Reed's defense was leagues better than his teammate's.

Matt from Endless Motor's tweet from above was inspired by a pair of post defense possessions while Bufkin's personal 7-0 run cut the lead to 49-55 and forced Wisconsin to use a timeout. Out of the timeout Reed forced a pullup miss, rebounded a Bufkin miss to draw Michigan's first shooting foul, and generated a steal on the other end.

Reed also made both of those attempts from the stripe, the first that Michigan attempted all game, with 6:41 left in the second half.

It must be said that the 12-point lead Wisconsin gave away was built on run of one-sided officiating that set a new low for an already notorious Trohl Center. Tschetter got tagged for one away from the ball two seconds before a shot that was somehow ruled a basket-and-one after review. Will had his own and-one opportunity wiped away earlier when a defender who ran under him on a putback of a Kobe Bufkin airball was ruled before the shot. This extraordinary run of calls and non-calls continued until Jett Howard was stepped under while going for a rebound and went down hard. His father was issued a technical for getting in an official's face, and the ensuing free throws pushed Wisconsin's lead to a dozen, with possession. I'm telling myself this was part of Juwan's punishment, and leaving it at that.

Later on they did give Hunter Dickinson a benefit of the doubt they probably shouldn't have when he got tangled up with Crawl and fell down, which resulted in Crawl's fourth foul just before the Under 4 timeout. Coming back Wisconsin got another multi-shot possession when McDaniel was too short to corral a short three-pointer. Dickinson finally started to get the better of Crawl, drawing two fouls (but making just 1/4 of those shots) in Michigan's next two offensive touches, followed by magnificent defensive possession that ended with a block and a shot clock violation. That set up the Tschetter bunny when Will missed his free throws, which was followed by *The One Hunter Really Needed To Come Down With.*

The Wolverines' final possessions after *TOHRNTCDW* were exemplary of the their struggles this year to close out close games. After Wisconsin cut off Michigan's planned action, Jett Howard drove into traffic, lost control, then managed to snatch the ball back and put in a floater. After UW's Max Klesmit made both free throws to push their lead back to four, Dug McDaniel had the ball poked away at the top of the circle by Hepburn.

Takeaways from this game are as dismal as Michigan's postseason outlook. They have flaws, but so does the Big Ten, and it's reasonable to expect this team to have won a good five or six more of those games than they have. Whether that's luck or some cosmic something or other can't be discerned from watching basketball, however, so that's where I leave you.

[There's a miserable box score after THE JUMP]

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Comments

Fhekshdj

February 15th, 2023 at 1:00 AM ^

Last FG: 10:45. I have never seen a team held to just making free throws for the final 10 minutes of a game and still win. This team seems to be able to play offense, or defense, but never both

TheCube

February 15th, 2023 at 1:17 AM ^

I feel like there are at least 5 TOHRNTCDWs and 4 TOHRNTMs (The One Hunter Really Needed to Make) a game. The missed bunnies and defensive rebounding woes are agonizing for a 7 footer. (Don’t get me started about his off court bullshit) 

Reed should be playing at least 20 minutes a game imo if the alternatives are T-Will and Cheddar. His progress has been quite remarkable this year especially now that he can hit free throws. Look out for the sophomore leap with him. And he can dunk the ball unlike HD, TWill and Cheddar. Oh and defense b/c he can't be budged unlike HD. 

Dug needs to have his role minimized a bit if he's going to share the floor with Kobe. Michigan could've pulled in front but those 2 agonizing drives to the hoop killed us. Dug needs to learn how to move around in the paint better as a short dude if he's going to do that shit. 

Kobe and Jett still too inconsistent. Jett has either checked out or is nursing that ankle injury. Kobe needs to keep this level of play every game if this team will even sniff a high NIT seed. 

Juwan gets a freebie and we'll see what happens next year. But holy hell get another defensive coach on staff or get one who is better at getting a feel for the game when certain players are hot. Juwan's substitutions have been perplexing to say the least, at this point in the season. In the beginning of the season, it's understandable to have some wonky lineups but now? Come on man... 

Is there a basketball version of Biff Poggi that Juwan can hire? 

TrueBlue2003

February 15th, 2023 at 11:30 AM ^

It was both the coaching and having the right defensive minded players. 

Yaklich was much better than Saddi defensively or Beilein wouldn't have needed to hire him.  I don't think his struggles at Illinois-Chicago change that.  Maybe he can't recruit, maybe he can't coach offense (their defense is ranked much better than their offense) but he was a good defensive guy for multiple schools before getting this head job.  Also, they just moved to the MVC which is a better conference than the Horizon league so he's had to take a lot of L's this year.

Juwan hasn't recruited many guys that play much defense.

The saddest part is that his own son seems pretty clueless on defense.

MH20

February 15th, 2023 at 2:57 PM ^

Yeah, it was a bit of an unfair swipe at Yaklich. I do think it was both; certainly his scheme put players in a better position to succeed, and he had guys that were adaptable and athletic and made those schemes a success.

The fact that Michigan's defense has been putrid for two seasons now is quite confusing when it seems like I've read many places that Howard was the "defense" guy on staff for Miami.

And yeah, your point about Jett is pretty damning. We're 3.5 months into the season and he's still making the same mistakes and putting in the same low effort as he did back in November. I don't know if the concepts are too confusing for him or if he just doesn't care.

ERdocLSA2004

February 15th, 2023 at 11:16 AM ^

Dickinson has become the most entitled player in the league.  He unnecessarily talks trash without any ability to back it up.  His effort is poor, he folds when things get tough, and acts like his presence on the court is enough to intimidate other teams.  It’s become clear that this team isn’t going to get better with him on the floor.  Time for him to move on.

maineandblue

February 15th, 2023 at 3:58 AM ^

Thank you Seth, great write up. Sad game as our only hope of making the tourney now is winning the BTT. So many close losses and such a young team, hope they learn and grow from it. 
 

And is it me or was this Dug’s worst game if the year? Seemed like he couldn’t do anything at all on offense other than bring the ball up and pass around the perimeter, absolutely zero penetration. 

93Grad

February 15th, 2023 at 7:44 AM ^

Youth definitely doesn’t help, but I agree this teams problems go way beyond youth.  The roster construction is terrible, and it is looking like Juwan has had way too many recruiting misses in his next few classes. If Jett leaves it is really hard to see how this team will score any points beyond Kobe with Dug and Taris  occasionally chipping in. 

alum96

February 15th, 2023 at 9:28 AM ^

Crazy how bad recruiting is when Juwan is a "relatable guy who played in the league" etc etc

Take Jett off this team who is only here because of his dad and look at what a smoldering pile it is. Kobe is the only guy who really has high end potential aside Jett.  Most of these are role players for most other B10 teams, not starters. 

TrueBlue2003

February 15th, 2023 at 11:42 AM ^

The answer is somewhere in between.  The loss of Llewellyn at PG was massive, given the lack of depth and that Dug was then needed for minutes he's not ready for.  That's the only place where youth is really hurting Michigan.  So Juwan gets a pass for that.

What is disappointing is that their veteran leaders, Dickinson and Williams, seem to have gotten worse since last year.  That's a problem.

cbutter

February 15th, 2023 at 7:00 AM ^

It’s not great that with only one personal foul, Reed played 13 total minutes, only 3 more than…. Jace. With how Reed was playing it makes no sense.

JH’s substitutions still continue to boggle the mind. He seemingly never uses the rotations in anyway that makes sense. Spent about 5 minutes with a McDaniel, Baker, Jace, Jett, Reed lineup in the first half which is when Wisconsin built their first lead. Where is the scoring coming from there? Jett, can’t be expected to iso ball for 5 minutes with any kind of success. So we have multiple hero ball moments from Dug and Baker because nothing is happening on offense. I just don’t get it. 

bronxblue

February 15th, 2023 at 7:25 AM ^

Just another in a series of games UM could have, should have won but didn't.  I will say that people reacting to the "UW didn't score a FG in the last 10:45" as if the game was tied is a bit unfair.  UM was down 10 at that point and so until that final flurry of FTs in the end UM outscored the Badgers 13-5.  That's not great but Wisconsin is a pretty good defensive team and the fact UM was down 10 in no small part was the usually Trohl Center refereeing bullshit.

This team isn't good enough to make up for missed FTs and missed bunnies, and that's why they aren't making the NCAA tournament.  But at the same time there were glimmers of the better team they could be.  Their defensive intensity in that second half was markedly better than it was in the first half of the year and even the first half of this game.  Bufkin is a more complete player than we've seen for a couple of years, and guys like Reed and Tschetter, as limited as they are, played better.  This is a team that can play with anyone in the country and maybe even win.

But they still don't rebound remotely well, especially when Williams isn't out there.  It's telling that this team needed a couple more points to beat Purdue when Howard was out and a couple more rebounds when Williams was out.  I like guys like Reed and Tschetter but there's a reason neither of them have been able to usurp Williams and you saw it here.  Tschetter in particular didn't make a ton of sense to me playing 26 minutes; Reed didn't have foul trouble and he's just a bigger presence on both ends of the court.  If the argument is "Reed can't hit FTs" Tarris went 2/2 while Tschetter couldn't dunk a great pass by Dickinson and then clanked both FTs.  Williams, for all his faults, probably plays better than Tschetter down the stretch.

Anyway, like I said this team isn't good.  Flip a couple of games and they probably still limp into the tourney but it's a limited team that desperately needs guys to come back for a second year but we'll see.  I'm not optimistic they win more than 1-2 games before the BTT at this point.

bronxblue

February 15th, 2023 at 9:19 AM ^

They lost by 5 to former #1 Purdue, by 2 to a top-10 UVa, by 1 to top-20 IU.  There really isn't a "great" team this year in college basketball, and Michigan isn't so bereft of talent that they couldn't hang with the best teams in the country.  And yeah, at some point maybe Bufkin or Jett or Dug or Dickinson doesn't screw up a play at the end and they win a game 63-62 against a top-10 team.

Again, I'm not saying they're a Sweet 16 team but I noted this elsewhere that a big difference between UM and other meh teams is they just can't catch a break in close games.

HollywoodHokeHogan

February 15th, 2023 at 2:40 PM ^

I think his point is that he thinks the difference between hanging with and winning against is not just luck.  For example, the four-point play against Iowa was a bad break, but the subsequent 15 point or whatever ass kicking wasn't just bad luck. It's possible in some sense that Michigan gets into a close one and doesn't implode, but they implode in those circumstances with remarkable frequency.

ERdocLSA2004

February 15th, 2023 at 3:54 PM ^

I’m assuming you’ve watched a lot of their games this season.  Barely losing to Purdue doesn’t mean we can play with anyone.  If you look at their entire body of work, this team is much closer to the team that lost to CMU than the team that barely lost to Purdue.  They might get lucky here and there and shoot 50% from 3 but that doesn’t mean they can compete with anyone.  Just because the 16 seed beats the 1 seed every now and then, doesn’t mean they are even remotely as good.

bronxblue

February 15th, 2023 at 9:22 AM ^

They don't lose to CMU and they beat Purdue and they're 18-13 with a win over a top-3 team and no really bad losses.  Expand it one more to include IU or Iowa and they're 19-12 with 10 wins in the conference already and they're basically NW, a team that is comfortably in the tourney per most bracket projections.

DennisFranklinDaMan

February 15th, 2023 at 8:03 AM ^

I'm not sold on Dug McDaniel as a solution, even next year. I assume his ball-handling and decision-making will improve some, but he was thoroughly exposed last night on defense, I thought, with player rebounding over him, driving around him knowing he couldn't in any way challenge their shot, and of course shooting over him.

Last night, for the first time, he looked on both offense and defense like a lost and out-of-control teenager running around on a court with grown-ass men (which, of course, to some extent, is what he is), and ... I worry that Wisconsin simply chose to exploit an advantage which will exist for every single team we play, going forward.

bronxblue

February 15th, 2023 at 9:26 AM ^

Yes Dug is physically limited but he's also a true freshman playing extended college minutes.  He's averaging 35 minutes a game in conference play and that's a grind for anyone, but most especially the PG.  He did look overwhelmed yesterday but he's looked better before and I don't think Wisconsin somehow unearthed a style of attacking him other teams didn't figure out.  He's a shorter guy but give him a year in a college weight room and he'll be stronger and be able to hold up better.  People around here thought Bufkin would by physically dominated too and he's looked like a revelation as he's matured.

bronxblue

February 15th, 2023 at 10:00 AM ^

It's not a good team but I beseeched people around here to watch other college basketball teams and see that they too have talent and athleticism issues, or even remember past Michigan basketball teams.  Xavier Simpson was "physically limited" as a freshman but figured it out over the years.  Eli Brooks looked "limited" until he got older and became a really good defender and finisher (we famously were shocked to see him dunk multiple times in games).  Kobe Bufkin, I mean, looked physically unable to hold up against Big 10 players last year and this year he's turning into one of the better all-around guards in the league, if not the country.  

I swear people think it's a schtick or me being an idiot but "sometimes freshmen get better" shouldn't be a novel concept.  

TrueBlue2003

February 15th, 2023 at 11:57 AM ^

Bufkin was physically dominated last year because of weight but he has some length so no one thought he'd continue to get abused as he added a little strength.  That's why he was a top 50 recruit and McD's All American.  He's more Caris Levert than...I don't know who the comp is for Dug but a lack of length is the worst thing for a bball player.

colonel

February 15th, 2023 at 10:11 PM ^

Yeah, I don't want to be a hater, but Dug is straight-up small. Like not basketball small, but regular small. He'd probably be too small to play slot receiver for the football team, even if they tried to add weight on him. X was barely six feet, if that, but he had long arms and a wide base. Dude was a really solid perimeter defender all the way through his time here. Burke was not much above six feet, but he also had a wide base, and obviously a tremendous amount of offensive game. He had enough athleticism to dunk the ball on open transition looks.

Dug is none of those things. He's like 5'8" 160. If we put him in the weight-room, he becomes 5'8" 175. What does that accomplish? I love the kid's feistiness, but I struggle to see the upside. This does not feel like "he's just a freshman, give him time situation." This feels like a "he'll transfer to a mid-major school when we get a properly sized PG on campus" situation.

Beaublue

February 15th, 2023 at 8:08 AM ^

Are there any adults in charge of this team?   

A bad look for Hunter to be wearing a mask into a Big10 stadium 1 day after a masked man killed 3 at another Big10 school.   (I get it that he was representing something else, and on any other night it might have been funny, but not this night)

Jett wearing a "Free Juwan" warmup?   I don't like Wisconsin basketball anymore than anyone else around here but Juwan earned his suspension last year and is fortunate to still be coaching.

Furthermore, if you want to talk that talk, you'd better be able to walk that walk.  

Denarded

February 15th, 2023 at 8:16 AM ^

This program has Brady Hoke/John L Smith vibes to it. They are hyped up with blue chip recruits, they're full of pre-game (and sometimes post-game) antics, struggling to stay above .500 while everyone else laughs at how they mismanage themselves and lose tight games in embarrassing fashion. 

In the last 2 years Juwan's longest win streak is three games. With the talent and returning players he's had there is zero excuse for him.

Denarded

February 15th, 2023 at 9:36 AM ^

Hunter Dickinson - #43 ranked recruit 2020, .9842 247 composite

Kobe Bufkin - #46 ranked recruit 2021, .9831 247 composite

Jett Howard - #43 ranked recruit 2022, .9839 247 composite 

Tarris Reed - #35 ranked recruit 2022, .9876 247 composite

We can remove Joey Baker who was the #33 ranked recruit in 2018, obviously he is nothing close to that. Michigan still has 4 players ranked inside the Top 50. The only other B1G team with that many is Indiana with 4. The next closest is Ohio State with 2. Everybody else in the league has 1 or 0 Top 50 recruits on their roster.  

TrueBlue2003

February 15th, 2023 at 12:02 PM ^

Unfortunately, I agree with you.  Arc for Juwan is basically the same as Hoke so far.  Early successful season with guys other coaches developed and then a clear path downward.

Hopefully he turns it around.  I think the Llewellyn injury was huge and he can't be blamed for that.  Dug is in way over his head, which is understandable for for true frosh.  Average play at PG, which I think Llewellyn would have provided and this is a 16-10 or even 17-9 team relatively comfortably in the tournament with upside to beat anyone.

MGoRedemption

February 15th, 2023 at 8:21 AM ^

"free Juwan" from his punishment that he already served and was lenient at that. It shows no remorse for clearly being in the wrong last year. Frankly, it's some Tom Izzo shit and it's becoming increasingly more prevalent. If you're Juwan, you have to tell your own damn son to take the shirt off. 

Denarded

February 15th, 2023 at 8:30 AM ^

You would have thought after the CMU loss the staff would've begun to run a tighter ship and thought these tight games with MAC schools is inexcusable, but instead they've let Hunter continue to go on podcasts trashing Big Ten opponents and last night's antics. Its pretty obvious there's no accountability or respect shown from the program. 

When you're the Fab 5 and go 56-14 over two seasons, sure you have some fun at your opponent's expense. When you're 31-26 over the last two regular seasons and act like this, you just look like a program full of punks. 

michgoblue

February 15th, 2023 at 8:57 AM ^

I hate that this is such an accurate assessment of the team, but it really is. Contrast Hunter Dickinson’s constant pregame and post game bullshit with Zack Novak’s aneurysm of leader ship on the court in the middle of a huge game. I hate to say it, but this is the least likable Michigan basketball team in a decade. It goes well beyond wins and losses; it’s the way they carry themselves, the lack of defensive effort for long portions of the game, and just poorly coached, unwatchable basketball. 

rice4114

February 15th, 2023 at 11:52 AM ^

Getting some serious Amaker vibes here. The sad part is Kobe, Jett, and Hunter may be the best trio he has in the foreseeable future. 

The subtraction of Twill and addition of Reed that was thrust upon him was almost enough to win this game. Of course that would mean keeping Reed on the floor. Reed is a game changer and the more time he stays on the bench the more I question Juwans coaching ability. Reed did more in 15 minutes than Twill has done in any game this year. 

UofM Die Hard …

February 15th, 2023 at 3:35 PM ^

It is man, totally agree.  Its hard to give my fandom to this team, compared to previous teams under JB..or even early JH years with Livers, Mike Smith, Chaunde, ... humble dudes who just balled. 


This is some childish bullshit who cant back up any of this crap...I dont like Hunter.  Nothing more to add, I just dont like him.  Yeah he was a stud freshman, but his shtick was bullshit then too....STFU, play hard, support your team, and be fucking humble.

Im fully done with him and I will be pissed if he is still on this roster next year. 

colonel

February 15th, 2023 at 10:38 PM ^

Not to be a Michigan fandom hipster, but I kinda felt this way about Hunter last year. His attitude was shitty and his effort was inconsistent then. Among many data points, it doesn't seem like Martelli likes Hunter very much at all. He says things like "Hunter is Hunter" in interviews, which sounds like a nice way of saying "this guy sucks."

I don't understand why we were clamoring to have him back. Without him this year, we probably win even fewer games, but the team would be way more fun to root for. We'd be pulling for the development of Tarris Reed and maybe there'd be a journeyman transfer center logging yeoman minutes to spell him. We'd be talking about how attrition got the best of us for a year, but that a future team built around Bufkin and Reed and maybe Jett might make some noise in the conference. It'd be a better vibe.