THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#110 Michigan (8-19, 3-13 B10) vs #2 Purdue (24-3, 13-3 B10)
WHERE	Crisler Arena Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	2:00 PM Sunday
THE LINE	Kenpom: PU-13 Torvik: PU-13
TELEVISION	CBS (streaming link)

THE OVERVIEW

With Dug McDaniel serving the first game of his six-game road suspension, Michigan went to Mackey Arena and actually gave the Boilermakers a hard time. Yes it a 99-67 blowout, but hear me out: the Boilermakers had to shoot 67% outside the arc, collect more than their share of bounces, and get Tarris Reed removed from the game early by a series of phantom calls to avoid the kind of 76-72 win with the dreck of the Big Ten that could raise a question in the press conference.

That question would have been "Why do you think Edey was held to just 16 points?" and the answer is Tarris Reed was planting like an offensive lineman and refusing to let the Kenpom Player of the Year walk through him to the rim.

Since Purdue beat Michigan by 32 points in their last meeting things have gone how you'd expect. The Boilers have a road loss at Ohio State (also a Sunday night on CBS) and an OT win at home over Northwestern against six more comfortable victories. Michigan's dropped another 40 spots in Kenpom, with one close home victory over Wisconsin and eight double-digit losses, played five more road games without their best player, and lost their next best player to season-ending wrist surgery.

So it's not, like, IMPOSSIBLE, if Reed can hang in there again, and gets a home-flavored whistle, and you add Dug McDaniel, and the Boilermaker guards go cold from outside, and Will Tschetter is back from the flu, and you flip the luck, that Michigan stays close enough to blow an upset bid at the end. Yes, Olivier Nkamhoua's Michigan career is over, but it's not like Tray Jackson (who missed the first Purdue game with a concussion and broken nose) can't repeat his fellow transfer's performance, IE missing 4/5 open threes and getting bowled over defensively.

What I mean is yes, on paper this looks like a free Q3 road win for the 1-seed. But if you squint hard enough, you can see a path to the kind of game where the nation's sickos are tuning in just in time for Bill Raftery to cry "Onions!" on a Tschetter triple that puts Michigan up seven at the Under-4 timeout, and CBS can actually recoup some advertising money before the inevitable 12-2 collapse.

[Hit THE JUMP for links to the last, still-relevant preview.]

THE US

My graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Hard to tell how much the flu is going to hold guys out—Tschetter was the only one to miss the Northwestern game from it.

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

They're healthy.

THE THEM

Chest up. [Campredon]

I refer you to the last Purdue preview for probably my most extensive analysis all year. Updates:

Other than canning his first career triple vs Indiana, Zach Edey has continued to be as Edey as ever. He leads the nation in fouls drawn, is up to 4th in ORebs, 18th in true shooting%, and 16th in using up the most possessions. Even the shocking Ohio State loss followed the script that tournament teams have used against Purdue for years: force the center into a lot of turnovers and stress the athleticism of the guards with a more mobile backcourt. Ohio State also fired their coach a few days before it.

Purdue hasn't changed much since we saw them a month ago, except PG Braden Smith has been looking to shoot more from outside instead of pulling to down and driving for a pass. Correspondingly his 3PA rate is up 20%, his ORtg has gone up 4 points, and Torvik has him up from 3.7 (very good) in PORPAGATU to 4.4 (excellent). That's taking a bit of usage from the wings, not Edey.

THE TEMPO FREE

Four factors:

In case the one weak spot wasn't apparent before, maybe it's more obvious now?

THE KEYS

[Campredon]

Sweaty Reed. Nobody saw the gutsy performance at Mackey, and nobody's going to remember a gutsy, flu-addled performance at Welsch-Ryan Arena that almost upset a Northwestern team headed for a 9-seed, but a gutsy, flu-addled performance against Zach Edey on CBS might give us something to preview next year besides desolation.

Make Edey dribble. The Blueprint. Not saying it's easy, but if you *can* deny him touches inside, you give yourself a chance to poke it away.

Win the possession battle. Purdue's one of the worst teams at causing turnovers, and is a little susceptible to them. Edey's going to make up for that with offensive rebounds, but if I told you there's a way to neutralize the effect of Edey's work on the glass you'd take it right?

Dug Dug Go! The other half of The Blueprint is out-guarding Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer with a speedy gnat they can't keep up with. Which we have.

Shoot 67% from the floor, collect every weird bounce, and get a ton of home cookin'. Sometimes Lady Randomness gives Purdue a 20-point cushion on a game they're gonna with by 12 anyways; sometimes it goes the other way. Just sayin'.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Purdue by 13.