THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#81 Michigan (7-12)   vs #49 Iowa (11-8)
WHERE	Crisler Center Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	5:00 PM
THE LINE	Kenpom: Iowa-1 Torvik: Iowa-2
TELEVISION	FS1 (link)

THE OVERVIEW

I guarantee that all of Crisler Center will be on their feet for this one, at least for the few minutes they bring new football head coach Sherrone Moore on the court. Hopefully the fans will also give the basketball team a cheer. They're in need of some support, after Game 2 of Dug's academic road suspension turned out to be exactly the execution predicted.

It's hard to look at that Purdue game and come away with positives unless you were one of the few who actually bothered to tune into Peacock. Then you saw Tarris Reed actually doing a good job on Zach Edey until fouling out on a string of Paul Szelc specials. Terrance Williams played one of the most inspired games of his career. In order to have any chance at an upset Michigan needed to get some shots to fall and some rebounds to ricochet the right way. Purdue got the blowout, but they had to shoot 67% on contested jumpers and get 90% of the bounces to make up for Edey scoring just 16. Would Michigan have won with even luck? Nope. But if we are projecting, the actual how of their recent demolition tells a much more positive story than the final score, which is all that most fans saw.

Michigan's more inspiring road performance was their December visit to tonight's opponent. Reed punished Iowa's lack of size down low and made 5/7 free throws to pull off a 90-80 upset, easily Michigan's biggest conference win in the last two dismal seasons. Iowa's changed things up a bit since then, moving SG Josh Dix and Big Owen Freeman into the starting lineup as neither young PG has been able to nail down the job, and Patrick McCaffery has been coming back from injury. Iowa too got hamblasted recently by Purdue, with Edey scoring 30 points on them in as many minutes in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes took yet another tough loss at home on Wednesday, allowing Maryland to come back from a 6-point deficit to win in regulation on some crazy Jahmir Young heroics.

These Wolverines aren't going to the Tournament, but it would be nice (if just because I bet on them to do so) to get another win or two before the postseason questions have to get answered. Kenpom doesn't take the Dug thing into account, but says this and a visit from Rutgers next week are their best shots, and that feels spiritually correct. It would also be nice not to undo the one of just two nice moments from an otherwise forgettable season, and start the Moore Era off on a high note.

THE US

My graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

I'm keeping the red on Llewellyn—if you saw him trying to cut and falling down vs Purdue you'd agree. Jace looked back. No word on Tray Jackson.

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

We actually caught Dix in his second game starting. He's taken on more usage since. They're playing two bigs a lot now as well, and are mostly an 8-man rotation unless Freeman's extra minutes are getting him in foul trouble. Minutes for the bench last game were Harding 15, Bowen 10, McCaffery 10, emergency big Evan Brauns 7, Pryce 5.

[After THE JUMP: Iowa.]

THE THEM

They tried having a real PG or two, but are back to Perkins. [Iowa Athletics]

This is our first repeat game of the year. I'll like to the previous preview and give some updates.

Freshman C Owen Freeman ascended to the starting lineup in the Michigan game and has remained there through McCaffery's various injuries and illnesses. Freeman's your typical Iowa center except he's not an outside shooter (yet?), with a suite of good post moves, and a knack for picking up and drawing fouls. He's a bit of a flopper, as is Will Tschetter, which could lead to some "Both men work for Don King" action at some point.

Freeman's ascendance pushed Valpo transfer Ben Krikke to the four, which means he's no longer a glaring "SCORE HERE" sign on defense but also can disappear on offense. He had a rough outing on Wednesday (3/11 from the field and 2 TOs) against Maryland to follow the typical bad night of a big who faces Purdue, but had 25 points against Minnesota's wings. His superpower is a soft touch.

SF Payton Sandfort remained remarkably consistent as Iowa's top pull-up man until running into a 4/20 stretch from three the last three games. Michigan held him in check as well—10 points on 13 possessions.

SG Josh Dix has seen his usage tick up a bit in the last few games without a corresponding drop in his insane efficiency. A lot of that has come from being the last guy to join a run-out and canning an open three.

PG Tony Perkins is back to point, and back to running the court as quickly as he can.

The Bench:

• PG Brock Harding is still a freshman, but his shooting anywhere but the rim has been so atrocious he doesn't even bother; points in last seven games were 1, 3, 0, 2, 4, 0, and 2 on between 4 and 5 shots. His turnover rate has come down to 18.
• PF Patrick McCaffery missed three out of the last five games, first for illness then an ankle injury that's now over two weeks old. Maryland was his first game back from that and ended with as many turnovers (2) as buckets and rebounds. He's probably not going to be all better three days after that.
• PG Dasonte Bowen was two games into losing his starting gig when we last met, and has seen his playing time steadily decline since.
• Freshman W Pryce Sandfort has been slowly working his way into the rotation, but he's a total Yo-Yo at this point of his career.

THE TEMPO FREE

The conference-only:

Iowa's double-bigs lineup is not that great at rebounding and terrible at 2-point defense—conference opponents are shooting 58 percent from two!

THE KEYS

Throw down. Freeman was no match for Reed and Nkahmhoua had better looks than his shooting indicated in their last meeting.

Make your free throws. Relatedly.

Keep it up T-Will. Strong defense against Sandfort, strong play since.

Nimari usage drop. Early season hopes he's a shooter have fallen by the wayside. Let's let the other guys get the points and focus Burnett on keeping Perkins contained.

Fix the bad runs. What's killed Michigan the last few games has been opponents socking them back after a good thing happens. Call a timeout or work on locking in, because these quick 10-point swings already cost you the season.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Iowa by 1.