THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#54 Michigan (4-5) at #48 Iowa (5-4)
WHERE	Carver-Hawkeye Arena Iowa City, Iowa
WHEN	Sunday, 4:30 PM
THE LINE	Kenpom: Iowa-4 Torvik: Iowa-3
TELEVISION	BTN (link)

THE OVERVIEW

Iowa's yet another foe that got one win in a moderately difficult non-conference schedule before a joining the bubblicious melee that is this year's Big Ten. Their moderately impressive win was Seton Hall, their losses to Creighton, Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Purdue. The ISU game was as much a nightmare for them as the Texas Tech game was for Michigan. The Hawkeyes shot 14/31 from two and 8/26 from three, played traditional Hawkeye defense, and got wiped 90-65.

If you've been watching the last decade of Iowa basketball this team won't seem too dissimilar—think polar opposite of their football program—except a bunch of these guys have made fewer three-point attempts than the kicker. Only one starter and two contributors have more shots outside the arc than either two-point jumpers or shots at the rim. They also juggled the lineup for the first time this season, allowing Tony Perkins to try to run the offense to get another shooter on the court in place of distributor Dasonte Bowen. You can't blame Fran for wanting to try things his way.

As for Michigan, they thought they were putting together a switchable, athletic, defensive nightmare. Instead they've been, well, Iowa. Their last two games caught injured versions of teams that looked poised to be Q1 wins, with Dug shooting them into overtime with Oregon followed by a classic Paul Szelc/Bad Thruck loss to Indiana at home. Now they get to revisit the House of Horrors in Iowa City.

THE US

My graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

No changes.

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

Dix started last game but only got 11 minutes so I'm sticking with the guys most likely to be on the court.

[After THE JUMP: Diet Iowa.]

THE THEM

Perkins has been That Hawkeye Who Plays D for a few years now. [Campredon]

SG Tony Perkins is the guy you will recognize the most from past bouts. He's a big guard who never developed as a true combo, never developed more than a passing three-pointer, and mostly makes his living in the lane on transition opportunities. That threat has only grown with age. Perkins has good body control and draws a ton of fouls, especially at home. He's also, oddly for this team, an efficient defender. But really it's how you defend Perkins that determines how your Iowa game will go. Zach Edey made his life miserable, and Iowa State managed to hound him away from the basket and into three turnovers. Anytime you can shoo him away from the rim he's gonna pull up for a low-percentage two; via Hoop-Math, 41% of his shots and just under half of his points at the rim are from transition.

SF Payton Sandfort was the "if the first goes in Uh Oh" guy off the bench last year. Now a junior, his quick trigger is his team's #2 scoring option. He will launch threes any time he gets the tiniest window for one, and where they often find those is in transition. He's only 7/21 this year on those contested jumpers, but those numbers will fluctuate wildly depending on whether that's a Dug or a big with a hand in his way. Defensively, he's skinny, long, and often on the wrong side of the court. Unlike his teammates, he does rebound well for his position, often collecting while Krikke boxes. Expect Sandfort to take about a quarter of Iowa's shots, and for the results of those to determine whether their offense is Plus, Mid, or Oof. He's been balancing that as a distributor. Sandfort sees the court well, and uses his gunner's scouting report to find easy baskets at the rim for his friends.

Finally out of floor-bound sweaty men who can step out, Iowa hit the portal for a big, and came up with a non-stretch, non-defending transition scorer in Valpo's C Ben Krikke. His numbers on Synergy are incredible: 94th percentile in post-up offense and transition offense, above-average in the pick-and-roll, and a soft-touch point-per-possession guy from the elbow. Defensively he's an Iowa center, with his feet stapled to the floor and carrying a 1.1-percent block rate. He's also not much of a rebounder. Anyone who plays an early game against Edey is going to have his stats warped a bit by that, but Krikke's rebound rates at Valpo were 6% and 13%. He will attempt a three, but he's a 26% shooter on over 150 opportunities so if he steps out let him, and if he hits it you are welcome to be mad.

New PG Dasonta Bowen is Xavier Simpson. He's carrying a 26 assist rate with a tiny turnover rate getting to the rim with frequency and efficiency, the only guy who's been really doing that against a set defense for Iowa this year. Bowen has also been wracking up foul calls. He finally picked up some charges on the road, but at Carver-Hawkeye with this guy you're just gonna have to expect the officiating to be very bad and for you to be very mad when he simulates contact that never came close to him. This worked against Iowa State, not Purdue, for the obvious reason. The other thing that works is Bowen's ability to fling it back out from the baseline. If he was on a team with better shooters Bowen would be an excellent piece; on this team he's only playing half of the minutes because his absolute inability to hit a jumper ruins everybody else's spacing.

Finally there's old friend PF Patrick McCaffery, the junker who was splitting time with the Murray brothers despite the offensive effect of a McCaffery brother. Patrick's health issues have made him the most rootable guy in the Big Ten, but in five years he remains mostly a stretch four who will finish somebody else's play at the rim or a clang a triple (32% career, 7/23 this year). His defense will never be more than that of a 6-9 guy with a hand up, when he even gets to his spot.

The Bench:

• C Owen Freeman will get some minutes with Krikke at the four. The freshman doesn't shoot from outside, but he arrived with an array of moves down low, and has shown a surprising knack for blocks. This also results in a lot of offensive rebounds, but nobody playing Iowa is used to having to get the ball poked out.
• PG Brock Harding gets a portion of Bowen's minutes and tries to be a distributor, but he's still very much getting the hang of it. Teams have found success letting him pull up in the lane since he can't get anything to fall unless it's outside the arc; he's 1/13 on dribble jumpers from two-point range, and 4/5 on threes he created for himself. Run him off the line then drop into his passing lane.
• W Josh Dix is getting his shots to fall, but he only gets them when someone else creates them. They use him as a Just-a-Shooter but his profile doesn't look like it because he's usually guarded out there, and Iowa's been going transition so often. He's lost defensively.
• W Ladji Dembele is another freshman not quite ready to be on the floor yet. He'll be a burlywing or maybe even a center down the line but right now he's just out there to eat some minutes and look like a stretch threat.

THE TEMPO FREE

Iowa gonna Iowa.

THE KEYS

No more Murrays to get in my way. [Campredon]

For the love of everything, get back. Iowa in transition >>>>> Iowa in a set offense. The more they can push the tempo the more they're going to get Perkins and Sanfort going.

Protect the rim! Bowen at home and Perkins in transition are two of the more effective scoring options in the league. Take both away and Iowa turns to jumpers.

Keep a hand in Sandfort's face at all times. He wants to launch. I don't know if T-Will or Jackson can prevent him from doing that, but a good defensive game from the wings would go a long way.

Offensive boards. Michigan has a couple of potential rim sweepers in Nkamhou and Reed who could do some damage against Krikke and Freeman.

Out-Iowa Iowa Again. Will Tschetter, this night is for you. Hide him on McCaffery and let him go to work in the post.

Don't get Carver-Hawkeyed. Weird things happen in that building, none weirder than last year's trip.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Iowa by 4.