The World Is Hers

Last year's Big Ten freshman and sixth player of the year, 6'2" forward Naz Hillmon, is only getting better. After dropping a 30-point, ten-rebound hammer on #20 Iowa, Hillmon took home conference player of the week honors. She's currently averaging 17.3 points and 8.8 rebounds per game while shooting 57% from the field; she's only stepped up her game in conference play, upping those averaged to 19.9 points and 9.6 boards, with more than half her rebounds coming on the offensive end.

As the above highlights display, Hillmon is a force. Just ask her coach:

“To me, nobody has figured out how to defend her,” Michigan coach Kim Barnes Arico said. “I don’t know if she’s defendable. … She affects the game in many ways, she gets offensive rebounds when we need offensive rebounds, she gets defensive stops when we need a big defensive stop.”

The Iowa win was huge for Michigan's tournament chances. According to Warren Nolan's indispensable college basketball reference site, it was the Wolverines's second quadrant one win in RPI (still a thing in the women's game), and if #46 Rutgers falls off a bit it could stand as their only Q1 win before long.

At 14-7 (5-5 Big Ten), the Wolverines are holding steady as a ten-seed in ESPN's bracketology. The remaining schedule provides a decent mix of winnable games against the bottom of the conference and chances to bolster the resumé against tourney teams. This evening provides a golden opportunity to strengthen position as Michigan hosts Purdue, which is 6-5 in the conference and also projects as a ten-seed. That game tips off at 6 pm Eastern on BTN.

[Hit THE JUMP for some befuddling big man decisions and a look at Franz Wagner]

The Big Question

enough of this [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Every coach has his weird hangups; John Beilein had the rigid adherence to autobench and put too little emphasis on defense until Billy Donlon and Luke Yaklich came along, for example.

Juwan Howard, in a shocker, may like true big men too much. When Michigan went up by a point with 6:08 to play against Ohio State, Howard went with a two-big lineup featuring Jon Teske and Austin Davis. Even though Davis went perfect from the field and the line in this game, that lineup got outscored 12-10 over the course of the game, and that's a better than usual outcome for lineups with that pairing. Here's the on/off data from Hoop Lens with guarantee games removed:

There's a lot of small sample noise in there; 50 possessions is less than a full game's worth. That said, that's a lot of deep red. Of particular concern: the 11-point dropoff in two-point shooting on offense, getting waxed on the defensive boards—which you'd think putting two bigs out there would prevent, not make worse—and three-point luck on defense so bad it may not be fully a fluke. Neither Teske or Davis is cut out to defend most power forwards; meanwhile, the offense's spacing goes to hell with both of them out there.

While Howard is currently handcuffed with Isaiah Livers out, there's still an alternative to the Teske-Davis pairing that doesn't involve forcing Franz Wagner to play a ton of minutes at the four. While we're still working with small samples, lineups with Colin Castleton alongside Teske have fared significantly better than when Davis is the second big:

In a near-identical sample, this group manages to improve Michigan's shooting, albeit with a strange dropoff in offensive rebounding. More importantly, they knock two percentage points off opponent two-point shooting and clean the glass better than other lineups. Take away some poor three-point luck and this could round into an excellent defensive pairing; thanks to a massive defensive rebounding advantage, it already looks preferable to putting Davis out there at the four.

I don't want to spend much time addressing this next bit. There was a board topic and some twitter mentions about how Davis needs to start over Teske. When Teske is on the floor without Davis, opponents shoot 46.6% on two-pointers. When Davis is on the floor without Teske, that number jumps to 51.3%. The answer is no. Davis has been a pleasant surprise and Teske has disappointed but that is going way, way overboard.

Wagner The Playmaker

NEIN [Campredon]

Even though Michigan is projected to make the tournament field at the moment, this season has taken on the feel of a retooling, wait-til-next-year endeavor. That means it's time to look for signs of progress among the projected returners.

A lot of fans are frustrated with Wagner because of his outside shooting, and while I understand the discontent, I still fully expect that to turn around; this is someone who may need minor mechanical tweaks after his wrist injury but is far from requiring a shot overhaul, plus he's got a well-documented history of shooting very well.

Meanwhile, his usage has crept above 20% in Big Ten play, which would put him in the "significant contributor" category on KemPom if maintained over a full season. He's shooting 55% on two-pointers in conference games, using a combination of length and footwork to work his way to the lane, where he's shown a nice array of finishing moves.

I want to focus on his passing, however. After tallying four assists in his first two games as a Wolverine, Wagner went eight straight games without a single dime dished. In the eight games since, though, he has 11 assists, and that number would be higher if Michigan made a reasonable number of their open jump shots. He had two gorgeous drive-and-kick plays in the Rutgers game to set up open corner threes; Brandon Johns converted his opportunity:

In addition to creating more offense on his own, Wagner is becoming more comfortable with Michigan's set plays. He's often used as the pop man on what's become Michigan's go-to play, the double drag screen. While Rutgers doesn't exactly defend it well, Wagner hasn't shown this level of decisiveness for much of the year, and the velocity and accuracy of his pass shouldn't be overlooked:

If he doesn't whip that pass into the post right away, there's a good chance the late-recovering center tips it away; instead the ball cruises past his outstretched hand and Davis gets a dunk.

I'm also excited to see how Wagner develops as a defender. He's a step slow on the ball, particularly against smaller wings, and he needs more strength to reliably play the four in most situations. That said, he's already showing strong instincts off the ball and he knows how to use his length to create havoc. He's 22nd in the conference in block rate and 20th in steal rate while keeping his foul rate at a very reasonable 3.4 per 40 minutes.

At 245 pounds, Ron Harper Jr. thought he could bully Wagner at the rim. While he was able to get into Wagner's chest, Wagner took the contact and emphatically blocked the shot:

Most of Wagner's blocks have come as the weakside help defender surprising a shooter already dealing with a defender. That one was an eye-opener.