28 Tickets To Team 139: Post-Spring Edition Comment Count

Brian

What is this? Folks who cover the USMNT drop lists like this projecting the 23 guys who end up on the next World Cup team. I have appropriated it. Regarding the number of tickets: 22 starters on offense and defense + 2 kickers + nickelback + SAM + FLEX TE  + SLOT.

PREVIOUSLY: last year's final version, pre-bowl edition.

Note that due to Michigan's frequent deployment of a 3-3-5 with a true SAM linebacker I've added that slot to this year's list. There are now 28 tickets. Actually there are 29 because there are two RBs.

PACK YOUR BAGS

30544914742_ed4537549d_z_thumb111. SDE Rashan Gary, Jr. [Last time: 1]

Enjoy it while it lasts. Gary is a unanimous top-ten pick amongst Way Too Early mock draft types. He was first team All Big Ten per the coaches at a loaded spot after an 11 TFL, 5 sack season. Goal in what's presumably his final year is to go from All Big Ten to All American. That's more likely than not.

Screen-Shot-2016-02-03-at-10.00.33-A[2]2. ILB Devin Bush, Jr. [Last time: 3]

The platonic ideal of a Don Brown linebacker. Roaring start to the season petered out into solid play as opposing offenses started focusing more time and resources on blocking him; still racked up 9.5 TFLs and 5 sacks and was 1st team ABT. Occasional busts expected out of a true sophomore and should drop out of his game as he takes up the mantle of upperclass leader. Drawing skills questionable.

hudson_thumb13. VIPER(!!!) Khaleke Hudson, Jr. [Last time: 4]

Set program and B10 record for TFLs in a game because Minnesota decided to be very Nice to him. Also had 8 non-Gopher TFLs and was a frequent, excellent blitzer. Versatile and explosive; replaced Peppers on defense with almost no hiccup. Busted coverage vs OSU was a bummer. Again, true sophomore.

30300197284_6b18c06a0b_z_thumb54. WDE Chase Winovich, Sr.* [Last time: 6]

Translated productive 2016 cameos with nearly no efficiency loss, leading team with 17.5 TFLs and 8 sacks. Ironman who played almost every snap with a nonstop motor. Enjoyed Eric's hat. Some run issues with lane integrity and holding up against power at his face. Should lose snaps as 2017 class comes online behind him.

31165120764_f26408fc10_z5. SS Josh Metellus, Jr. [Last time: 8]

Don't let that dropped INT and a couple of drag routes obscure what was otherwise an excellent end to the season for Metellus. Graded out consistently well in UFR. Versatile slot defender and safety was a highly reliable tackler and virtually never showed up on your screen for bad reasons. There are far far worse fates for a new starting S. Don't make me remind you of AMSHG.

v38mru82pxomj6mxzrvx_thumb106. FS Tyree Kinnel, Sr. [Last time: 9]

Spate of missed tackles as Kinnel got over-aggressive on screens see him slot just below Metellus; most of his other misfortune was getting freshman Jourdan Lewis'd on slot fades and the occasional Hornibrook heat-seeking missile. Busts were rare; key component of a secondary that exceeded all reasonable expectations. Man coverage on slots could use some work.

33245237283_6934761f01_z7. OC Cesar Ruiz, So. [Last time: 10]

Was already a holy lock to be the starting center in 2018, and then he started at RG for the back half of the season. There was little dropoff from Onwenu until Wisconsin and TJ Edwards came to town; even so Ruiz played out of his mind for a true freshman. He's a natural C and ain't nobody coming for his job.

36586388714_757de77321_z8. TE Sean McKeon, So.* [Last time: 12]

M's leading receiver... with 29 catches. Couple that with an in-season blocking turnaround as he went from Very Bad to Good-ish, and you've got a pending four year-starter unless the NFL intervenes. Athletic, good hands—the OSU drop was uncharacteristic and I have the charts to prove it—and mean enough on the ground.

37017822590_aaac6ab7b0_z (1)9. FLEX Zach Gentry, Jr.* [Last time: 13]

Loping downfield menace would have had a massive breakout season in functioning pass offense; in Michigan's he got 15 catches. Led the team in YPC with a Gesicki-esque 18.4, and was not a pretty pretty princess when asked to block. More or less Post Apocalyptic Jake Butt. Hopefully can become Regular Jake Butt in 2018.

14_487611210. CB David Long, So.* [Last time: 5]

Corners both drop because of Ambry Thomas buzz. Long still put Simmie Cobbs on a milk carton. Program ambassador type. Like Hill, barely challenged over the second half of the season as opponents gave up on their outside WRs. Should improve faster than Watson and emerge into ABT or AA type.

36428699434_67f64b4670_z11. SLOT Grant Perry, Sr. [Last time: 14]

Michigan's leading receiver by yardage last year, Perry looked the part of a polished just-gets-open chain-mover. He looked that part far too rarely for the usual reasons. As a senior his deployment will be similar, but hopefully he'll be one of a large number of weapons instead of the one guy you need to look for on third and seven. A version of Perry in a functional passing game is really efficient.

38189078341_28cfa20806_z12a. RB Karan Higdon, Sr. [Last time: 15a]

Felt wrong to leave either main RB out so let's break out some lower case letters. Higdon is 71 bowl yards away from being Michigan's first 1,000 yard RB since Fitz Toussaint. He demonstrated not only an ability to power through tackles but to run away from a bunch of them. A few better cuts and he's the total package. Oh... and a lot better pass blocking.

CryqvadUkAA3Tz5_thumb512b. RB Chris Evans, Jr. [Last time: 15b]

Disappointing first half mostly about terrible blocking at inopportune times; came on late; displayed open-field chops against OSU. A jet with ankle-breaking ability. Running through a few arm tackles. Got up to 5.3 YPC even with terrible start. Should have had 40 catches this year. Scouts flag football at 7 AM. Should be allowed to wear a helmet that has his hair on it.

30350541320_53f3c6e05f_z_thumb1913. OG Ben Bredeson, Jr. [Last time: 6]

Alarming pass protection feels a lot more understandable if Bredeson is a redshirt freshman, but that was not possible given the dearth of OL Harbaugh inherited. Became a solid cog in the run game; apparently never ever going to get looked at as a tackle. Says somethin' about somethin'. Go go gadget Ed Warinner, here and everywhere else.

36639883555_c850aaef2a_z14. FB Ben Mason, So. [Last time: 16]

Sometimes there's a man. Mason is that man. He's the only veteran fullback on the roster who anyone can name, for one. For two, Harbaugh can't shut up about his physical physicality. For three, Michigan followed that up with meaningful in-season playing time, and he did well with it. For four, just look at that fullback-ass photo at left. Fullback? Fullback.

UNLESS SOMETHING STRANGE HAPPENS

image15. QB Shea Patterson, Jr. [Last time: NR]

Hello, Five Star Tate Forcier. While there is just enough of a chance that Patterson's lack of familiarity with the playbook sees someone else win the job to put him in this category… naw. Third-best SEC QB per PFF last year, 64%, 8.7 YPA, 17-9 TD-INT, yes please. Good thinking-face emoji face. Face.

635894839030253287-DFPawards-121315-[2]16. CB Lavert Hill, Jr. [Last time: 2]

Another (almost) entirely missed spring session drew the ire of Zordich. If this goes like last year's ire, polish up the Heisman. But! Thomas is a potential bustout and Hill could get the proverbial Wakeup Call. Still likely to be AA-worthy and a potential early departure. No safety in this secondary. 

CrxVLFyXEAQQBc9_thumb1017. OG Mike Onwenu, Jr. [Last time: 10]

Spanellis chatter out of spring dings Onwenu, who got bumped for Ruiz even after seemingly recovering his health last year. Continued mashing is a given. Stunt pickups, please. Endurance remains a question, as it often is for super-giant OL. Could go either way here: AA potential, bench potential. This one may be more Herbert than Warinner.

33220291904_91e3759ddd_z18. WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, So. [Last time: 19]

Emerged as Michigan's main—often only—receiver by midseason, whereupon he was zestily overthrown on wide open post routes and humped to death by hoodie-wearing jabronis in full view of the referees. Did get a bomb against Wisconsin, and had two huge punt returns. Breakout could be coming, pending pass pro.

38456603786_f91ec3a78d_z (1)19. 3T Aubrey Solomon, So. [Last time: 20]

M's late preference for a 4-man-front seemed directly tied to the development of Solomon, a five-star who started flashing that talent late in the year. Removal against OSU because of a ding, not his play; Martin/Glasgow/Hurst play-alike who could/should bust out big time in full time starters role.

nordin-810x450_thumb520. K Quinn Nordin, So.* [Last time: 22]

Torrid start cooled off; still hit 15 of 20 attempts on the year. Three missed XPs are... uh. Not great. S&P+ has him an almost entirely average kicker. This is not the worst, but it is quite a comedown from GREATEST KICKER IN COLLEGE FOOTBALL HISTORY, which is what Nordin seemed like for half the season. Let's get back to that plz.

FAIRLY SAFE BET

image21. NT Mike Dwumfour, So.* [Last time: NR]

Mo Hurst, but big! Dwumfour's been a hype machine since last year, when he was unneeded, and has continued to generate downright absurd talk. Most of this is unprompted from the coaches, to the point where Harbaugh sat back down and asked Ira to ask about breakout players so he could shout Dwumfour out.

37266565725_cd8455398e_z22. WR Tarik Black, Fr.* [Last time: 24]

Michigan's #1 receiver until injury hewed him down; flashed his talent early; with Crawford's continued struggles it's likely that Black walks right back into the starting lineup once he's healthy. Massive, thudding downfield guy with great body control and a year of experience sounds like a nice safety blanket for Peters.

CvKekmXWIAAKkLp_thumb2723. P Brad Robbins, So. [Last time: 25]

This is still a picture of Jordan Glasgow in a bear shirt, and will probably always be a picture of Glasgow in a bear shirt. The punter in question, Robbins, was middling at best as a freshman and could come in for some competition from walk-ons, but the main walk-on shanked three early and got yanked so not so much.

IN A BATTLE

30030155204_aeed8a5eef_z_thumb1224. SAM Noah Furbush, Sr.* [Last time: 17]

Back down in the salt mines for Furbush as linebacker hype for others threatens his spot as Devin Bush's personal snowplow. Could lose time to more dynamic players since he was a bit of a one-trick pony. Someone who could drop into coverage (Singleton? Anthony) would give the 3-3-5 more oomph.

38196366241_195c826cee_z25. NICKEL Brandon Watson, Sr.* [Last time: 21]

Also gave Simmie Cobbs the business. Athletic upside not as high as the other guys but he's making it work as a press corner. Thomas lurks, though, and given the need for a slot fade response Watson's time could be under threat more than the other two guys. Don't count him out.

Lq2JiI0826. ILB Josh Ross, So. [Last time: NR]

Mike McCray's vacancy is wide open and could go to any of the second-year players, or Devin Gil, or Josh Uche, or even a relocated Noah Furbush. Ross gets the nod here because he's got recruiting rankings on the veterans and playing time on his classmates. This is a shot in the dark, but a relatively friendly one. The last two spots... not so much.

30055076235_3a9d30494b_z (2)27. LT Juwann Bushell-Beatty, Sr.* [Last time: NR]

JBB couldn't pass protect a lick last year and that's not likely to change in his final year. News that he'd moved over to LT and had not been clearly dislodged by one of the redshirt freshmen is necessarily alarming. Banking pretty heavily on Warinner >>> Drevno for any optimism.

636215455344246734-IMG-112228. RT James Hudson, Fr.* [Last time: 28]

Here's a near-random guess at which dude will emerge from the seething pile. All three of the returning candidates had major issues, so the door is wide open for a freshman. Hudson moved to tackle and is picking up Webb hype while nobody else has been mentioned, so here he is. Other options: Spanellis, Filiaga, Stueber, Honigford, Runyan, JBB, and Ulizio.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

NOT STARTERS BUT CONTRIBUTING

RB Kareem Walker—flashed promise late, needs to follow his blocking better.

WR Kekoa Crawford—scuffled badly this year, but will rotate in.
WR Nico Collins—redshirt yanked rather pointlessly late this year.
WR Eddie McDoom—Breastonian threat could have been better utilized.

TE Ty Wheatley—injury may have got him Wally Pipped but there's a role for a masher.
TE Nick Eubanks—knocked out for year by brutal targeting.

T Jon Runyan Jr.—RT for much of second half against OSU.
T Grant Newsome—please please please
G Stephen Spanellis—productive masher as 6th OL.

SDE Carlo Kemp—significant PT a year ago; still developing.
NT Bryan Mone—man-planet will be short yardage asset.
3T Lawrence Marshall—decent backup DT
WDE Kwity Paye—flashed some talent as a freshman, up 30 pounds.

SAM Josh Uche—effective rush specialist late in the year.

CB Ambry Thomas—KO returner and super talented dude could take aim at everyone's snaps.

PUSHING FROM BEHIND

QB Brandon Peters—spring talk not real great.
QB Dylan McCaffrey—oblig redshirt year in rear view.

RB O'Maury Samuels—probably needs an injury before he can see real time.

WR Oliver Martin—weird that he was the guy who redshirted.
WR Nate Schoenle—got a few targets.

C Phil Paea—move to O was probably inevitable.
G Andrew Vastardis—walk-on is in conversation.
T Nolan Ulizio—Pretty terrible but did get a half season of starts.
T Andrew Stueber—potential LT if Newsome can't go.
T Chuck Filiaga—enormous man may be G but M has to see if he's a tackle.
T Joel Honigford—Another LT candidate if he works out.

3T Donovan Jeter—ND decommit w/ salty comments afterwards will be fan favorite
WDE Luiji Vilain—injury enforced redshirt gave Paye the early edge.

MLB Drew Singleton—will battle Gil/Ross.
SAM Jordan Anthony—maybe more of a viper/Bush backup?

CB Benjamin St Juste—oh Canada.

S Jordan Glasgow—behind Woods; special teams stalwart.
S Jaylen Kelly-Powell—got some PT late, didn't go well.
S J'Marick Woods—Ol' Woods brings the wood.
S Brad Hawkins—mostly active on special teams.

WAITING THEIR TURN

RB Kurt Taylor—moves up if he can pass block.

SDE Ron Johnson—might be late early for him as Paye went right by on the weakside.
3T Deron Irving-Bey—at least another year before he's ready.
WDE Reuben Jones—late early.

Comments

stephenrjking

April 30th, 2018 at 12:28 PM ^

Perry was hurt this spring, but it still seems high to have him that much of a lock. Martin seems like a real option there.

Looking at the top end of the list, there's a lot of talent that won't be there in 2019. The team needs to win a lot this year and recruit really well. 

Richard75

April 30th, 2018 at 1:00 PM ^

Winovich is a SR but we already have options on the roster. Bush’s production is outstanding, but I’m not sure he’s an early entry guy at his size. Higdon and Perry have plenty of guys behind them.

And then there’s Patterson. He’s an early entry threat, but again, by 2019 one of Peters/McCaffrey/Milton should be good to go.

TrueBlue2003

April 30th, 2018 at 2:30 PM ^

Hill leaves after this season if he stays healthy and maintains or improves his level of play from last season.

Long seems like a guy that could leave but is the more likely of the two to stay.

Higdon is a SR, so he's definitely gone, right?

Hudson certainly a possibility but given how Peppers transition has gone to the NFL, I wonder if that viper spot is one that NFL teams shy away from.  If he proves he can cover RPO's, I think that's the key for NFL scouts.  Obvioulsy has the tools but does he have a position?

Bush could leave.  If his only problem is size at the next level, there's no reason to come back because a fourth year isn't going to change his size.

The good thing is that the depth on the defense is such that the loss of Gary will represent a large downgrade at SDE but other departures could be reasonably weathered without massive dropoff.

Ghost of Fritz…

April 30th, 2018 at 12:28 PM ^

...to see Patterson compared to Tate Forcier.  

Yeah, I know he said "five star Tate Forcier" but still...

Forcier was fun for about 5 minutes, until it was clear that he was (1) going to throw a bunch interceptions due to very bad decisions ('hey, I think I'll throw it 35 yards across the field where that safety is camped out!'), and (2) was not together enough to even stay eligible.

 

Ghost of Fritz…

April 30th, 2018 at 2:07 PM ^

comparison.

But I don't agree that it was a good comparison.

If he had said "think Forcier's arm and accuracy, but with the right mental approach and decision-making" then I would buy it.

Forcier had lots of talent.  Nice arm.  Accurate.  High 4 star.  Top 150 HS recruit. 

But he just did not have it together mentally to live up to his considerable talent as a college QB. 

It was not lack of talent that held back Forcier.  It was just his head was not in the right place to do what he had to do to (1) be a starting college QB or (2) stay eligible.  I mean he washed out at San Jose State.  And that did not happen becasue he lacked talent. 

Not every talented player has it together mentally at 18 or 19 to really pull it off.  Hope Forcier has that part of things figured out now. 

 

In reply to by CLion

Magnus

April 30th, 2018 at 1:03 PM ^

He also had some tomato cans to pad his stats, and he didn't do it. He was 7/13 with 0 TD and 0 INT against EMU. He was 11/21 for 2 TD and 1 INT against a 4-8 Indiana team. He was 13/23 for 0 TD and 0 INT against a 3-9 Illinois squad. 

I'm not arguing that Forcier was a terrible QB. He would have been better with a better team, just like every QB. But he was so-so even against mediocre/poor competition.

trueblueintexas

April 30th, 2018 at 2:03 PM ^

Magnus, I think it also is fair to to point out:

 - against EMU Michigan rushed for 380 yards and won 45-17.

 - against Indiana Michigan rushed for 177 yards, and despite only going 11 for 21, Tate threw for 184 yards. That's 8.8 YPA.

 - against Illinois Michigan rushed for 115 yards, and despite only going 13/23, Tate threw for 257 yards. That's 11.2 YPA.

I'm not waxing poetic about a prior time that didn't really happen. Those were dark times and every player and coach played a role in that. But for a freshman QB, that is not bad production given the context of the games.

MI Expat NY

April 30th, 2018 at 12:40 PM ^

Yeah, I don't get it either.  It's like people can only remember the worst from the Rodriguez era.  Tate's stats are pretty solid for a true freshman and a sophomore who didn't work hard enough to fend off a classmate who was never a great passer.  Get a more talented version of that without the off the field issues, and everyone should be thrilled.

Ghost of Fritz…

April 30th, 2018 at 1:55 PM ^

...here is why I reject the Forcier-Patterson comparison.

Forcier was a talented thrower, for sure.  Nice arm.  Good accuracy.

But he was not really great at the position because...the exact same mentality that got Forcier into academic trouble (etc.) is also the thing that really hurt his play on the field.   

People on the board are wrongly creating a dichotomy between Forcier as QB and Forcier the guy with 'off field issues.' 

No.  They cannot be separated. 

Both Forcier's off field issues and his QB play (17 TD/14 INT ratio) were a result of the same thing--his mental makeup.  He approached life the same way he approached playing QB.  Cannot separate the two.  One in the same. 

Patterson is an entirely different kind of QB.  Much more in control and a much better decision maker.  Patterson (at least I think) has a very different mental approach to life (and, therefore, to the game) than Forcier.

 

TheCool

April 30th, 2018 at 2:04 PM ^

Well, if the comment was 5 star Tate Forcier we have to consider that Tate was no 5 star. Therefore, Patterson is clearly expected to be better than Tate was. Since there's a correlation between mental make up and performance, we can assume Patterson has a more mature metal approach, as well.

Ghost of Fritz…

April 30th, 2018 at 2:15 PM ^

four star, right?  Top 150 recruit. 

Maybe I did not make it clear.  But I think the Patterson will be much better than Forcier.  Just that the difference will be mostly down to being better at the mental side of life/the game. 

Forcier had tons of talent, as does Patterson. 

But Patterson has got the grey matter part more in order, so he can get the most out of his talent, where Forcier never did.

Ali G Bomaye

April 30th, 2018 at 12:40 PM ^

I'm pretty sure Brian only meant to compare Patterson's on-field style to Forcier's, not things like his predilection to do homework or go to class.

And a five-star version of that would be pretty good!  Let's remember that Forcier started on a team that was one year removed from being 3-9. A lot of Forcier's "run around randomly and see what happens" plays were because the offensive line was terrible, he had no WRs who could win 1-on-1 matchups, and we were playing from behind. Despite that, he threw 10 interceptions in 281 attempts, which isn't horrible.

Ghost of Fritz…

April 30th, 2018 at 2:25 PM ^

I agree that is what Brian meant.

My disagreement, however, is based on the idea that there is no real way to separate Forcier's on-field and off-field performance.

Same factors that caused the 'off-field' issues also really kept him from playing well 'on-field.'  Can't relly separate the two. 

And you say Forcier only threw 10 INTs.  But his TD/INT ratio was 17/14.   Not good at all.  And that is not because Foricer lacked 'talent.'  He was accurate and has a good arm.  But he played QB sort of the same way he did life--erratic, not in control, not thinking fully through the consequenes.

And that is why I think it is unfair to classify Patterson as just a 5 star version of the high 4 star Forcier. 

 

gbdub

April 30th, 2018 at 4:05 PM ^

"Can't really separate the two".

Apparently you can, since Patterson plays with a Forcier++ on-field style with, to date, none of the off-field issues.

"He's a swaggy improv high-risk guy on the field... obviously that cavalier attitude is why he skipped all his classes" is a just-so story. Hell, that was the Houston version of John O'Korn, and he didn't flunk out off the field either.

Ghost of Fritz…

April 30th, 2018 at 7:09 PM ^

to my eyes Patterson is very much in control of himself, not 'high-risk.' 

Much more controlled and within himself in the way he plays than was Forcier. 

It sells Patterson short to say he is just a better version of Forcier.  He's better all right.  But way more than just an upgraded Forcier. 

Ghost of Fritz…

April 30th, 2018 at 2:30 PM ^

was a freshman.  But that is not the only reason he did that stuff. 

He started as a freshman because (1) he did in fact have huge talent and (2) RRod did not have an upperclass QB that could play in his offense.

And so, of course, Forcier made 'freshman mistakes.'  But in was way beyond that.  There is a reason that he washed out at San Jose State too. 

He had great arm talent, pretty good accuracy, nice mobility.  But both during and well beyond his freshman year he just did not have the head to get a whole lot out of his talent as a starting college QB. 

 

leftrare

April 30th, 2018 at 12:38 PM ^

Brian, IIRC, the most recent thing you had to say about Newsome's status was somewhat bearish, along the lines of his rehab taking longer than it should.  Putting him in the first group out is... brighter, no?  (please, please, please).

 

 

Michwolve21

April 30th, 2018 at 12:42 PM ^

Metellus cannot be described as a “highly reliable tackler.” Unless you can prove otherwise, I remember that he has no interest in tackling.

Wolverine 73

April 30th, 2018 at 12:40 PM ^

Well, except for the offensive tackle position. If our tackles can just get to average, this team should be very good. If Newsome is able to play, RT will work out. People don’t seem too optimistic about that, unfortunately.

TrueBlue2003

April 30th, 2018 at 3:12 PM ^

seems like it's going to be the key phrase of camp and into the year.

Incredible talent (and pretty good experience) all over the field...except what looks like a sizable black hole at both tackle spots.  Arguably the second most important position on the field and our options aren't promising. Ugh.

Crazy that we haven't even been able to recruit a top (nearly) college ready guy or get a good grad transfer in the past two years despite what looks like an incredible opportunity to essentially be a guy that makes Michigan a likely favorite in the conference rather than merely a contender.

Let's see what Ed Warinner can do.  Hope he makes some magic. 

Blue in Paradise

April 30th, 2018 at 12:42 PM ^

Both Rashan and his mother said during the recruiting process that people shouldn't assume that Rashan will leave after year 3.  She really wants him to get a degree so I think there is a 50/50 shot he comes back for 2019 depending on what happens next year.

His mom is a professional that does well for herself - so there is no family pressure to get paid ASAP.  

That being said, everyone would obviously understand him going into the 2019 draft if he is projected as a top 10 pick - regardless of his original intentions.  Also, he could get a degree in 3 years or finish afterwards.

50/50 is my view and I am sticking to it!!! LOL..

stephenrjking

April 30th, 2018 at 1:04 PM ^

Both Rashan and his mother said during the recruiting process that people shouldn't assume that Rashan will leave after year 3. She really wants him to get a degree

This information means there's a 10% chance he returns. If he realizes his potential he'll be a top ten pick and he absolutely should go and even the coaches will tell him that. 

 

MGoManBall

April 30th, 2018 at 1:15 PM ^

He's a top 5ish pick so we're looking at $25-$30 million dollar salaries with $15-$20 million dollar signing bonuses.

I myself have one of these degrees all these people stress the importance of... but I'm going to have to work after I die to see those numbers. 

If Gary can go pro, he should go