rich rodriguez
coaching changes
rumormongering is what the internets are for
jim harbaugh
rich rodriguez firing whatever

One Last Blind Stab In The Dark Comment Count

Brian

rich-rodriguez_p1 Jim-Harbaugh goat

Let's make a deal.

Saturday Michigan takes on Mississippi State in the Gator Bowl and Sunday something may or may not happen involving the throttling of an infant Denard Robinson in his cradle and the tears and lamentation that may or may not result. That would hypothetically also mean the reign of terror Greg Robinson's hair and the zombie minion that goes by the name of Greg Robinson would be over. The city of Ann Arbor emerging from its cocoon of upper middle class ennui to shoot AK47s in the air would at least partially offset the tragic, still hypothetical loss of baby Denard. I have taken too long on this bit.

Two days later Jim Harbaugh and his Stanford Cardinal take on Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. After he may or may not be destined for Michigan or the 49ers or the moon. The latest from Harbaugh is reminiscent of one Brian Kelly last year:

"I only talk about the job I have now," Harbaugh said when asked if he or his representatives had spoken to the 49ers about their coaching vacancy.

He acknowledged having a "dual focus"—

WHHHAAAA?

--on his team, which will play Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl on Monday, and on his daughter, Katherine, who was born just before Christmas.

Aw, come on, Harbaugh.

So what's going to happen? I still don't know. No one does. Last time on this show I said I didn't have anything solid and probably wouldn't because of the nature of the "search" but that the mystical aura wasn't looking so hot:

I'm not inclined to put much in the widespread chatter that had RR out the door after the OSU game and seems to be continuing since its sourcing seems to be pissed-off-you-guys folk clearly unhappy with the state of the program taking small interactions and interpreting them as they desire. However, the vibe I'm getting from other people who seem to be on the fence about what to do—or at least close to it—also makes it seem unlikely Rodriguez is back. Emphasis on all the qualifying words in the previous sentence, please. I've got nothing solid because no one does.

I also said that Brady Hoke would be named Michigan's coach over my dead body and the last semblance of sanity in the universe but that wasn't based on inside information. It was more a "has everybody gone CRAZY!?!" moment, and if the threat of Hoke didn't linger in the air I'd apologize for it. As it is I'm on the battlements with an axe* waiting to behead anyone who pops up and says "my name is Buh—." Bill Parcells is duly warned.

With less that a week left before the month of limbo is over, I haven't received anything that pushes my opinion much one way or the other. To reiterate, that's:

  1. There is a nonzero chance Rodriguez is fired, otherwise there would have been an announcement.
  2. Schools do not start coaching searches on January 2nd.
  3. There's only one guy out there that could plausibly be socked away or all but in time for Michigan to have a reasonable finish in recruiting and could justify yet more chaos in a program that is pointed in the right direction, even if vaguely.

So it's Rodriguez or Harbaugh and we'll probably know the day after the Orange Bowl. With all due respect to people who would argue otherwise, it makes no sense to fire Rodriguez in January if you do not have a coach lined up immediately. Since the list of people other than Harbaugh who Michigan could install within a week reads "Buh—[blood theatrically spraying from neck]" your alternatives are between rushing someone through without pause for consideration—which worked out so well last time—or dragging the search almost up to Signing Day, leaving your recruiting class a smoking crater and possibly dooming the next guy, who will forever be Not Jim Harbaugh, to repeat the cycle.

I have heard some things that push me more towards Harbaugh:

  • Some connected guys at Cal email that Tedford is aiming to poach Harbaugh's OL coach since he has "agreed to go elsewhere already" as of the 17th of December. Caveat: the Cal rumor mill bears no animus towards Rodriguez but would love to see Harbaugh anywhere but Stanford, so as things get passed down the chain they get more certain.
  • A player who split his career between RR/Carr years tells an emailer that Harbaugh will be installed on the fifth. Caveat: why the hell would some former player know?
  • An emailer who reports things second hand but has been reliable in the past suggests that Mary Sue Coleman isn't a big fan of Rodriguez, which isn't much of anything to go on but just adds to the pile.
  • Media people I talk to generally say the best thing is probably to give him one more year but that they don't expect he'll get it. Also not much of anything but vibe.

The only thing pointing the other way is the generally sunny disposition coming from within Schembechler Hall, but with recruits the coaches are saying they've got no idea what's going on but if they're still around after the bowl they'll still be around forever, or something to that effect. That's a hard sale right there.

If I was 55-45 Harbaugh a month ago I'm 65-35 Harbaugh now. I wish I could be more certain and wouldn't make the decision I think is likely if I was king of the world, but that's life. We'll know soon enough.

AWFUL BONUS: If there is a change you can go start the Denard transfer watch at DEFCON 2, since Robinson knows what he is—the Big Ten offensive player of the year as a sophomore at quarterback—and where he fits. How screwed up is a program that manages to get both Ryan Mallett and Denard Robinson to transfer away from certain starting QB jobs in the course of three years?

This hasn't happened yet. Breathe. I am talking to myself mostly.

*(To avoid a Tucker Carlson moment let me clarify: I am not going to cut Brady Hoke or anyone's head off with an axe.)

Comments

TimH

December 30th, 2010 at 10:02 PM ^

Fuzzy, that is generally true, but not always.  Mike Tomlin took over a pretty good Steelers team.  The Minnesota job would not be a bad one this year.  Barry Switzer taking over for Jimmy Johnson.  Even you could say when Sparano took over in Miami and took them to 11-5 from 1-15.  That situation was all right for him.  So it's possible if you pick your job carefully to have success.  Of course, then there's the issue of college coaches tending to struggle in the NFL.

Joined: 01/26/2010

MGoPoints: 101

diclemeg2

December 30th, 2010 at 2:27 PM ^

note to brian....   this will happen...

1. harbaugh will be our coach in 2011.

2. vaughters and sarao will follow harbaugh and commit to michigan, as will lots of recruits that would have normally been ours.

3. harbaugh will make a strong push for zettel but he'll come to michigan, only if paterno retires after this bowl game.

4. our glorious program and identity will be restored, and denard will not transfer, rather, he will learn the pro set for the NFL. hes loves michigan too much.

5. harbaugh will win with RR's players, and RR will be viewed as a modern day chalmers elliott and harbaugh as bo.

the only unknown i have is, whether rod will kick it upstairs in an admin job in the AD for a year, as his only true way of being a true michigan man as he wants, or if he leaves immediately to coach another program.

Joined: 05/11/2010

MGoPoints: -34

JBE

December 30th, 2010 at 2:33 PM ^

the only unknown i have is, whether rod will kick it upstairs in an admin job in the AD for a year, as his only true way of being a true michigan man as he wants, or if he leaves immediately to coach another program.

No fucking way.  RR is not an Admin, he is a football coach.  You are Nostradamus on a bender.

Joined: 08/18/2008

MGoPoints: 19316

FreddieMercuryHayes

December 30th, 2010 at 2:31 PM ^

I've heard this sentiment before, but if Harbaugh has already committed to us, then my big issue with this whole scenario is how disengenious Brandon comes through.  The whole season he has championed that he will evaluate after the season, including a bowl game.  If he has indeed locked Harbaugh up, or even made up his mind on the issue, then I lose a lot of respect for him.  He lets RichRod and his whole staff flounder in the wind, as other job openings are taken, as well as the impact on the recruits.  Yes, it is probably better for UM in the end, but geez, talk about a dick move.

Joined: 12/29/2010

MGoPoints: 40883

Fuzzy Dunlop

December 30th, 2010 at 2:42 PM ^

It's a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation.  If he signs Harbaugh before the bowl games, he's accused of doing the exact same thing to the Stanford players that happened to the WV players when we hired Rich Rod -- Harbaugh and we look like jackasses, and the whole thing gets off on the wrong foot just like last time.  Plus, it affects our players' enjoyment of their first bowl game in three years.

Waiting at least lets the teams enjoy the bowl games.  It sucks for Rodriguez, but there's no perfect solution.  (I'd hope that, if Rodriguez really is on the way out, he's been given some kind of private indication, in any event).

Joined: 09/22/2009

MGoPoints: 5710

iawolve

December 30th, 2010 at 2:55 PM ^

RR is either executing on his current contract which be terminated in an "employment at will" manner or simply waiting on his year end review to come down from management with an improvement plan for 2011. Unfortunately, there are many, many people who make much, much less money who have been put into worse situations by their management. It may seem harsh, but the guy has been given the opportunity to coach his first bowl game while at this university, that in of itself means something. Better than being told you are a dead coach walking (e.g. Maryland).

On the flip side, what if RR had been wildly successful at Michigan and Urban steps down at Florida? RR, not Muschamp, is candidate #1, #2, #3 on Foley's list where he throws down the "$1 more than the highest paid coach" contract. RR has the option to pay his breach of contact, take double the money and head to Florida if he chose. I am not saying RR would go, but I know I would listen pretty hard if someone offered double my salary regardless of my employer.

It goes both ways, there are no great ways to do it. 

Joined: 11/03/2008

MGoPoints: 7940

Logan88

December 30th, 2010 at 3:55 PM ^

So many people on this board seem to have become bigger RR fans then they are Michigan fans..to the point i'm starting to hate RR because i'm so annoyed by them

Replace "RR" with "said fans" and I agree 100%.

I like RR but I still think JH is a better option for UM and would prefer to see him as the HC next season. However, I have really come to dislike a significant majority of the posters on this board because they seem to feel that anyone who expresses something other than unwavering, dog-like devotion to RR (aka "The Martyred Saint") merits scorn and massive neg-bombing.

Joined: 01/05/2009

MGoPoints: 8078

Germany Shultz

December 30th, 2010 at 5:29 PM ^

I agree completely. Although I'm very far from being a sociologist, I have to say I've been fascinated by what has occurred in this "community" over the last year or so. It's been as if this has been a societal experiment in how fissures and deep divisions develop in a once unified, homogeneous society -- mainly based on irrational emotions and personal enmity brought on by a decline in said society. Where facts are used only to further an emotional position. Where some live in an alternate reality. Where brothers want to kill each other -- or just neg-bang them to oblivion. Would love to hear from someone who knows more about this.

Joined: 12/04/2008

MGoPoints: 182

wolverinehusker

December 30th, 2010 at 5:08 PM ^

i'd like to see one person who's a bigger Rich Rod fan than a Michigan fan. Oh wait, there are those people...at Ohio State, Notre Dame, Michigan State, Iowa, Penn State...

I want Rich Rod to stay, but I believe Rich Rod deserves all the flack he gets around here. People are just getting a little misty eyed about the end of an era...it's like the day after Christmas: your mind knows its over, but your heart just won't let go.

Joined: 06/06/2010

MGoPoints: 88

Harballer

December 30th, 2010 at 2:27 PM ^

I am at the point where it really doesn't matter what happens, as long as there is some kind of change, whether it be at DC or HC.  I think there needs to be a change after sporting possibly the worst defense that Michigan has ever seen, but  I don't think there is really a wrong choice in how that change is applied. 

It has been a long month, and I just want the controversy to be over so our fanbase can put aside our differences of opinions and hopefully be united for next year with a great core group of players returning.

Joined: 09/29/2010

MGoPoints: 386

Jivas

December 30th, 2010 at 2:32 PM ^

Let it never be forgotten how poorly Rich Rodriguez was treated by Michigan stakeholders of every type, from the moment he stepped foot in Ann Arbor.  History will make his tenure here look awful - the record is etched in stone, and consideration of the context will be forgotten.

And that is a damn shame.

Joined: 07/06/2008

MGoPoints: 2396

champswest

December 30th, 2010 at 4:27 PM ^

next year is likely to have a better won-loss record in 2011 than any of the last 3 years (unless a system change results in trying to fit square pegs into round holes again).  And that will be a damn shame if it is someone else who gets to benefit from all that hard work that RR put in the last 3 years and all the drama that he had to deal with.

Joined: 10/04/2009

MGoPoints: 25921

SirJack

December 31st, 2010 at 9:52 AM ^

I understand the sentiment, but this blog is about Michigan athletics, not one coach's career.

Rodriguez is not going to be fired because people don't like him. He's going to be fired because his record is 15-21, he has yet to come close to .500 in the Big Ten, and he has the lowest winning percentage of any coach in Michigan football history.

Joined: 08/30/2009

MGoPoints: 645

stubob

December 30th, 2010 at 2:39 PM ^

This entire process has been embarrassing to this alum. It's been like watching preschoolers fight over Legos. Who knew Ann Arbor Torch & Pitchfork would have such an off-season run, simply because the AD said "We'll let you know after the bowl game" and is sticking to that statement? What's dividing the fanbase is the second-guessing by the fans, not any activity by the athletic department. And I'm increasingly afraid that it will become irreparable: one side will hate the other for keeping the coach, and the other side will hate them for getting him fired.

And if anybody out there is cheering for the team to lose on Saturday, just so the coach gets fired, shame on you. That's even more embarrassing than the last month has been. If Rich gets let go, I'll wish him well and cheer for his teams, and always think he got railroaded. If someone else comes in, I'll cheer for his teams, wish his players the best, and watch like an alum. To get a coach fired because you don't like him, his style of play, anything other than the effort of the 80+ boys in maize and blue is abominable.

"there's gonna be one Team that's gonna play solely as a Team. No man is more important than The Team. No coach is more important than The Team. The Team, The Team, The Team, and if we think that way, all of us, everything that you do, you take into consideration what effect does it have on my Team?"

"We're gonna win the championship again because we're gonna play as team, better than anybody else in this conference, we're gonna play together as a team. We're gonna believe in each other, we're not gonna criticize each other, we're not gonna talk about each other, we're gonna encourage each other. And when we play as a team, when the old season is over, you and I know, it's gonna be Michigan again, Michigan."

Go Blue. Class of '98.

Joined: 08/20/2008

MGoPoints: 1553

Section 1

December 30th, 2010 at 3:06 PM ^

You mention the segment of "fans" (miniscule, probably, but vastly overrepresented on sportstalk radio) hoping that Michigan will "lose" in order to get a coach fired.

Throughout this saga, there has been one outrage after another promoted by the anti-Rodriguez crowd.  And not one that I can think of, from the pro-Rodriguez side.  Let's list some of the anti-Rodriguez outrages:

1.  There was the Free Press.  And 8/30/09 and "Stretchgate."

2.  There was Braylon Edwards.  Needlessly raising "Number 1" to the level of public dispute.

3.  There was the Free Press.  Again and again and again.

4.  There was Mike and Hope Boren.  Saddling Rich Rodriguez with the "family values" meme that has stuck like glue, with zero basis.

5.  There was the phony "Katrina" story from the '09 Football Bust, and the wild media slanting of the '10 Football Bust.

You can probably add some of your own recollections to this list.  Please feel free.  Can anyone think of a lie, an untruth, or any disloyalty promoted in the name of keeping Rich Rodriguez?  It seems clear enough to me that in, for instance, the case of Justin Boren, Rodriguez held his fire when he was being assaulted in the press.  There's another side of that story, that Rodriuez never commented on.  For Michigan's benefit, at his personal cost.

I suppose that some might argue that "attacks on Lloyd Carr" might count as some kind of misinfromation counterattack by the pro-Rodriguez side.  I personally don't care for attacks on Coach Carr, but I question whether any of them carry anything like the level of untruth and misinformation as with the anti-Rodriguez side.  I'd say no.  Not by about a light-year.  What's the worst untruth levied against Coach Carr?  In comparison to Coach Rodriguez?

Joined: 06/29/2009

MGoPoints: 16535

SirJack

December 30th, 2010 at 3:54 PM ^

Countless times, people on this blog have dumped on Carr, insinuating he was a mediocre coach with basically no strategy and an inability to comprehend simple math. Countless times, Carr’s recruiting has served as an excuse for RR’s clear failures. Carr(!) has been accused several times of not “supporting Michigan.” God forbid Carr visits some friends of his at the Iowa game or doesn’t make a public spectacle of himself gushing over Rodriguez. Former Michigan players have been called liars and worse. Former assistant coaches under Carr have been mocked as being inept. Former assistant coaches handpicked by RR to take care of that other side of football have also been mocked and scapegoated. The former S&C program is routinely derided. Even departments within the university have been harrassed and dumped on. All this in the name of supporting Rodriguez.

Joined: 08/30/2009

MGoPoints: 645

M-Wolverine

December 30th, 2010 at 5:08 PM ^

A "lie"? Well, we had the "team highest grade point average of all time" thing...that was completely untrue. Oh, wait, someone else just told him that. But that's been the only real off-field problem that comes up time and time again. Things are never the head coach's fault. None of Lloyd's "I'm the head guy, blame me". It's the players, it's the former coaches, what I was left with, it's my former defensive coordinator (will it be my current one too? I spend all my time on the offense), it's compliance not my student coaches, it football administrators, it academics, it's admissions not letting these guys in... Just once I'd have liked to hear "I'm the head guy, I get paid the big bucks, we haven't done a real good job, blame me, but we going to work hard and fix it". Some if it has come from the coach, but there are enough slappies who have come up with the most obtuse conspiracy theories of plots for failure rather than the obvious failures. People who root for us to lose the bowl game to get Rich fired are abhorrent. But I don't think they're any higher a percentage than those who will be rooting for the next guy to fail so they can say I told you so, and JUSTICE! (Which funny, they'd find horrible to hear a Lloyd fan who lived through all the complaining say "be careful what you wish for"). Don't buy it? Check out the Denard Comments on CC Section 1 even refers to in another post; or read between the lines in some here. There's a small percentage who'd love to see Michigan struggle if another coach comes in, just so they then can say "I told you so...". And they'd be doing exactly what all those who never accepted Rich from the start did. Beyond hypocritical, rooting against your team is just sick. And a sign of how someone was never really a fan to begin with.

Joined: 10/04/2009

MGoPoints: 42190

Section 1

December 30th, 2010 at 6:15 PM ^

I was one of the people who thought it ridiculous and absurd that anyone would complain about who Carr sat with at an Iowa game.  You're right; Rick Leach did that.  I had forgotten.  Rick was wrong.  It seems perfectly normal to me that Lloyd Carr might go to an Iowa game, sit in the AD's box, perhaps even (especially) with Bump Eilliott, who still lives in Iowa City, and enjoy the game with old friends.  That's what gentlemen-coaches do.  Plus-one for you.

As one who was always defending Carr during his coaching tenure (God, I even defended Jim Herrmann!), I turned a deaf ear to his critics then, and still do to some extent.

I know too that there has been some valid, unavoidable criticism of some of Carr's results.  He was getting all too used to losing to OSU.  The Horror was his.  There were undeniable recruiting holes attributable to his time.

There is criticism to go around.  My point was that I think the false and hysterical claims, particularly in the press (setting aside MGoBlog Message Board threads) really pile up on the anti-Rodriguez side; not on the pro-Rodriguez side.  I still think so, and I've given examples.

Joined: 06/29/2009

MGoPoints: 16535

maizenbluenc

December 30th, 2010 at 2:42 PM ^

My sense FWIW, is either Jim said "Dave, I have a baby on the way, a season to finish, and some NFL prospects to consider, but I am really, really interested in the job. I just need time to decide." Or, he said "OK, but I want to announce after my bowl game, because I owe that much to my players." Either way, Jim is in the driver's seat on the timing. Option a has DB retaining RR if Jim doesn't come. My West Virginian brother in law says the whole state figures RR's out. There is an odd sesnse of feeling sorry for him wwhile also feeling self-righteous justification in his failure.

Joined: 07/21/2009

MGoPoints: 10630

wfzimmerman

December 30th, 2010 at 2:48 PM ^

It always amazes me when sports journalists (and now Brian has become an uber-sj) discuss transfer ideas without talking about what the coach's spouse might want  Harbaugh is recently remarried and has a newborn daughter.  Don't you think his wife's preferences are going to have a major impact on his decision? 

Apparently, Sarah Feuerborn Harbaugh is from Kansas City, Missouri.  It's not clear how much of a West Coastie she is: she was living in Las Vegas when they met.  Much will depend on whether she wants to raise her daughter in Palo Alto (why not?) or whether she is interested in settling for life (could Harbaugh ever be fired?) in Ann Arbor, whose quality of life is best described as "a B+ in everything."

Joined: 07/25/2008

MGoPoints: 81

wolverinehusker

December 30th, 2010 at 5:03 PM ^

...but a native of California, I can say that, yes, Palo Alto has some nice regions (for the loaded), it's also got lots of crime and traffic, as well as the worst public school system in the country and an absolutely floundering economy that is not getting better anytime soon. Sure, all of these things don't matter when you're going to make as much as Michigan head coach will, but Ann Arbor is decidedly more family-friendly than Palo Alto...even with the chaos that ensues on game days.

Joined: 06/06/2010

MGoPoints: 88

blueheron

December 30th, 2010 at 7:49 PM ^

"... it's also got lots of crime ..."

Do you maybe mean *East* Palo Alto?

"... and traffic ..."

No worse than comparably sized and situated places ...

"As well as the worst public school system in the country ..."

OK -- this *must* be a joke, right?

"... and an absolutely floundering economy ..."

Confirmed ... it's definitely a joke.

Joined: 03/26/2009

MGoPoints: 31217

tubauberalles

December 30th, 2010 at 3:51 PM ^

The gorgeous ocean sunsets available for viewing from the beach just west of Dexter; the incredible choices of places to live in the hills above Ann Arbor, with either bay or ocean views; the wondrous array of fresh produce available from near-by farms year-round at the Kroger off Packard; majestic 2,000 year old pine groves a little south of Jackson; the incredibly vibrant major city 30 miles away; multitudes of social and work options up and down a leading high-tech corridor...  Yep, Ann Arbor has it over Palo Alto in spades.  Take that, California!

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 3169