Your opinion of Harbaugh: what went right, what went wrong, and what's next?
I think the program is where most thought it would be, at least in terms of overall records: 10-3, 10-3, and 8-5 were pretty much expected outcomes. Below, I've included things that I think are reasonably within his control
I'll start things off.
The Good
- Don Brown, Ed Warinner, Ben Herbert, and Chris Partridge--generally awesome hires
- Solid recruiting--tailing off a bit right now, but that probably gets fixed with a good season
- Generating buzz--added some pizzazz and visibility to the program
- 2015-2016 playcalling
The Bad
- Tim Drevno & OL--Not sure how Harbaugh could've seen that coming with Drevno's history of results, but in the end, he put program loyalty over personal loyalty and made a change
- 2017 offense playcalling--I know that the OL was rough, but Harbaugh successfully schemed ways around those kinds of weaknesses in previous years; this is probably an artifact of QB play
What's Next
- 2018 is going to be a rough year, especially in dealing with the fanbase, given the schedule. Harbaugh will probably survive but not thrive. However, plenty of excellent video games and chess will take place during the year, so there's that.
- But 2019 is looking very Natty-like, especially with the OL/QB/fully weaponized WRs. ND, Michigan State, Ohio State at home. South Africa. Non-chaos Indiana before The Game. Tasty.
Edit: Army is better than I remembered.
So b/c he lost, everything he did that week was wrong? I don't see any connection b/w that appearance and losing to MSU.
There have only been 3 games in Harbaugh's tenure where the D played poorly (2 and 1/2 if you want to get technical).
QB play is something that is going to have to improve, and sooner or later we are going to want to see someone we have recruited to come and take the reigns and succeed.
One of my biggest gripes with Harbaugh has been his tendancy to go Lloyd-ball when holding the lead against quality opponents. The inability to pick up 1st downs with the ball and the lead vs MSU in 15, Iowa and OSU in 16, still sting.
The offense this year needs to be crisp. It was painful watching it last year; specifically in regards to the passing game. Not having a quality backup QB, someone believing that Ulizio was the best option at RT, and young receivers made for a perfect storm; but jeez, watching all the parts move together was cringeworthy. So slow, so out of sync, so ineffective.
Good point about mothballing the playbook while ahead, but does that sort of make sense, given the overall schematic design and team philosophy?
I'm kind of working my way through this as I write, so please bear with me.
If you have fewer opportunities to score, then you have a higher variance, right? This makes sense if you have less talent, as it allows luck to play into things more. So I think this strategy makes more sense vs. opponents with more talent, like Ohio State.
There is also a time factor: teaching something leads to an opportunity cost. In Harbaugh's relatively complex system, mastery is probably more important than variety, because stuff depends more on timing and execution than the stuff Ohio State runs out, with relatively simple receiver route trees.
Or maybe all of that is bunkus. I'm not sure.
OL - Not having a capable OT to replace Newsome is now a Harbaugh problem. I gave him a reprieve on that in 2016 because Hoke couldn't recruit the OL to save his life. The 2013 OL class that should have set Michigan up through 2017 was a complete and utter failure, which was Hoke's problem. And not getting multiple OTs in 2015 wasn't Harbaugh's fault since he came in with 1 month to go before NSD. However, the 2016 class needed to have a sure fire OT in it to mitigate any future OT problems. Bredeson has never taken a snap at OT and never will.
I get why Harbaugh recuited like he did in 2016. Michigan needed to get talent at the skill positions because that's where Hoke lacked any success (outside of OL). But in doing so, Harbaugh didn't address what has become the biggest problem. So while 2016 and 2017 were a Hoke problem (to fix 2017 Harbaugh would have needed, at best, a true sophomore/RS freshman starting at LT) 2018 OTs are now a Harbaugh problem. Relying on a RS freshman (Hudson) to win the LT spot is a Harbaugh problem. If it works out, great! He fixed it. If it doesn't, he didn't recruit properly to address it. (Also, just start Runyan at RT for god's sake).
QB - Again, Harbaugh was screwed when he came in. Scholarship QBs were Morris and Speight. That's terrible. He made Rudock into an NFL draft pick and grabbing JOK as a possible future competition guy I'm fne with. Getting Speight to 3rd team All-Big Ten was also impressive. 2017 I wanted Harbaugh to go with Peters earlier after we saw JOK suuuuuuccckkkk, but there really wasn't a good time to do so until the Rutgers game (maybe Indiana in the second half when they had the lead and were content with just running the ball). I don't have a problem with him grabbing Patterson either as a stop gap, but after this year if McCaffrey/Peters/Milton don't show up, then I'll be annoyed by the lack of QB progression.
Play calling - I had a hard time with last year. There was a clear lack on continuity, but that could be due to the Frey/Drevno thing, the lack of a RT (plus young interior) and bad QB play. However, going from the OSU game to the SCAR game made it clear that it wasn't just a personnel issue. The game plan against OSU was great. Inspiring even. The game plan against SCAR (even though it resulted in a big enough lead that it should have been a W) was terrible. Shotgun HB dives? Long developing routes?Incorrect personnel leading to a fumble? It was like Michigan took everything that worked against OSU and said never mind, we want to do it the hard way for fuck all reasons.
Defense - Hard to complain about this since it's the strength of the team and is doing very well, but I still get annoyed with the whole safety slot fade issue. Much like the screen issue in 2016, it always worked and it was either never completely addressed by Brown, or it took too long to adjust to it. You have Hill, Long, and Watson. Why on earth are you leaving Metellus or Kinnel on slot WRs who beat them every time (even if it did take some Tom Brady throws to beat them)? Brown has ran nickle packages with 3 CBs in the past (Lewis, Stribling, Clark) but for some reason he refused to last year in large part.That and the whole "best way to solve a problem is with aggression" thing works most of the time. However, you know teams are going to run the throw back screens on you (Purdue and MSU) but it takes at least 2 or 3 successful plays before Michigan adjusted for it. I know I know, small issues, but when your offense can only muster 14 points, giving up 2 or 3 big plays on defense is all it takes to lose the game (see the Wisconsin game specifically).
I have confidence that the team will be much more successful this upcoming season just due to a dedicated WRs coach, the elimination of Drevno, and added experience. But if the offense looks lost again and there is no clear development among the interior OL especially, I'll start to lose it.
Thanks for the thought and effort in your response. Fantastic stuff.
- I had previously never thought of it, but I think you're right: OT is a Harbaugh problem by this point. The only problem I might have is that it's unclear whether this was a Drevno/Frey problem or a recruiting problem.
- QB is definitely a wait-and-see proposition.
- I'm not sure what happened at South Carolina. Maybe as a final trial for Drevno--and the final nail in his coffin.
- One guy here mentioned the idea of balance, and I think this has implications for the defense. A better offense means less time on the field for the defense, and I think that means fewer opportunities for those chunk yardage plays that Brian says this defense is prone to give up.
I've gone into the OL recruiting discussion too many times on Reddit with morons who refuse to acknowledge context (1 MSU fan in particular). And while I'll defend Harbaugh on the 2015, 2016, and even 2017 OL issues, at this point his time has ran out in regards to the OL not being above average. You could say it was a Drevno issue or a Drevno/Frey duality issue, but in the end Harbaugh hired Drevno and they had success at Stanford and SF under a similar coaching structure. So did Drevno all of a sudden forget how to coach OLs? Or was it because he had OC duties that took away his focus and he was too high level with a young OL? If it's the latter, then Harbaugh should have managed the situation better.
Now they're behind the 8 ball with having to start anew with Warriner and hope the youth can get going fast. Plus, I also still can't fathom why Ulizio was ran out against Florida last year. That is 100% on the coaches.
SCAR was just... stupid. I can't put it any other way. Running token Read Option stuff with Peters (who was never going to actually pull the ball) was idiotic. Those plays went for like 1 YPC if they were lucky, but it was ran way too often. Much like the Pep-Cat stuff in the Iowa game in 2016.
Also, the final drive was horrible. 3rd and 1 around the 45 with about a minute to go. Instead of Michigan running the ball to get a first down to get a fresh set of downs they pass. Peters takes a sack, and now it's 4th and 11. They run an out that the CB is sitting on and it gets picked off. That's terrible management and play calling. Drevno is calling those plays, fine. Harbaugh should step in and say fuck no, we're done with that crap.
I get the argument about the defense and like I said, it's small potatoes in the grand scheme of things and just something for me to complain about. But, when you're riding a razon thin line between winning and losing (due to the offense sucking) you can't get caught on 3 reverses/throw back screens in 1 game without adjusting to it. Purdue was leading because of those (though Brown adjusted and they stopped working). MSU won because of their misdirection screen. And Wisconsin picked on Kinnel, Metellus, and JKP to get their go-ahead TD. Even if the offense is better in 2018, there will be games that require the defense to not make any big mistakes. Those screens didn't come late in games, they came in the first half. Have that happen against OSU or Wisconsin even when the offense can put up points and it can still lead to a loss.
Like I said, I'm confident in the offense being better in 2018. How much better I'm not sure. And while we can definitely point to youth and inexperience resulting in losses last year, there were plenty of coaching mistakes that shouldn't be ignored. Even Saban makes mistakes like Michigan did last year, but their talent can cover it up. I hope the talent at Michigan can do the same.
I think he's the right guy for the job but maybe didn't completely understand the job when he took it. I think he underestimated Urban Meyer and Dantonio. I think he thought it would be easier and he could just slide in and everything would fall into place. Maybe he got carried away on the same train some of the media did when they said college is better for Harbaugh because of his personality -- he can do all those things that pro players tire of very quickly. He's like Apollo Creed in Rocky with all the spectacle and then he realizes that the opponent doesn't see this as a spectacle.
playcalling wasn't an issue IMO, plays were there but we had QB's that couldn't get it done. OSU game was good example of this IIRC.
who else are you going to get if not Harbaugh? we got the guy everyone wanted.
EDIT: 2016, three games lost by 5 points. that was the year UM had a chance to win a championship. Wouldn't have ever happened under Hoke even w/same talent. We are now rebuilding, IMO. If defense remains where it was (very good) and offense just moves up to slightly above average, we'll contend again. 2018 hinges on QB play IMO.
That’s the thing though...I never see anyone pointing to any other game from last year as an example of great play calling and game planning other than the OSU game. If the play calling wasn’t an issue as some claim, then we should be able to point to pretty the whole season and go “see there...excellent play calling and game plan, just utterly awful execution”....and yet no one ever does. 1 good game plan doesn’t excuse the rest of the season’s lousy planning and play calling.
The offensive players just just flat out weren’t any good last year...and the offensive coaches weren’t far behind. Last year’s offensive woes were just as much a coaching problem as a player execution problem.
I think this is fair to say. Both came with excellent performance at their previous stops, and that's what I'm basing it off of, but as you point out, that should've made Drevno (and Frey, later on), solid hires.
Just win, baby. Harbaugh is more than capable of taking Michigan to the CFP. He has several good recruiting classes suited up, he has a 5-star QB, he has a great supporting staff, great fan backing, facilities, etc. Let's see it happen. Or at least get Michigan in the conversation of the CFP near season's end. Other than the tackle position or a horrible injury affliction, I don't see a legit excuse to the contrary.
Since I really should be working and not reading the site...
My $0.02 (real scoop, not what people may want to hear):
The Good:
- Bringing in Dr. Blitz and an OL coach with a pulse.
- Generating lots of buzz... in 2015.
- Breaking the MSU streak.
- Bringing the students back into the stadium.
The Bad:
- When the calendar turns to November the team starts to forget what brought it to the dance. This has happened every year and needs to end.
- QB development - we're supposed to have a top-flight coach that can do that. Hasn't happened.
- OSU. Say what you will - the team should not have been in the position to where a bad spot or bad reffing cost the game. Inevitably there's some let-down in the game and Urb&Co seize the moment. This team will never sniff the CFP so long as it continues to lose to either MSU or OSU in the year. Want to dance? Beat them both - it boils down to that.
- The vanishing act of the FB. One of the things that made 2015 such a standout year was the use of the FB. 2016 tried it to some degree but started to move away from it. 2017 continued that disturbing trend.
The Next:
- This upcoming year was supposed to be 'the year'. We're always talking about "wait until next year". If you want to be a real player, you don't talk about next year, you talk about this year. As CW said back in '97 - "Just win". Shea coming in brings some stability finally but it'll be a bumpy season initially. The SoS does the team no favors.
- The heat is only at a simmer right now for the HC. If there's another subpar year this year, even with the schedule, it'll be a steady heat then. Realistically he has another couple years before there's panic in the streets simply because of his pedigree. Folks mention expectations - the bar at UM isn't 8-4... It is 10-2 or higher... every year. Maybe 70 years ago 8-4 would've been okay. Ever since Bo, those days went out the window for better or worse. The expectation is also not to lose for most of a generation against OSU. Even the overmatched teams in the 90s found ways to win - that goes to coaching and preparedness.
- Expect the defense to take a step backward in 2019. We're losing critical people likely after 2018 concludes. We can hope for the opposite but that's all it is - hope.
That's about it. The wall of text is long enough as-is. In the end these are my views, take them for what you will. I'll still be at the Big House each home game cheering the team on, tailgating in the rain, and supporting the team through thick and thin. Doesn't mean I have to keep my rose-colored glasses on.
Thanks for the response, here. You've made some interesting points.
- What do you mean about November performance? Are you talking about something specific or just the bottom-line wins/losses?
- OSU. Harbaugh & Co. are out-talented by OSU. I don't think the teams play by the same rules, and to boot, they just have a much better track record right now. That means Harbaugh can win with superior gameplans. But when you're down to your 3rd string guy at your most important position, I'm not sure how much a gameplan can overcome.
- 2017. Defense was one of the youngest in the country in 2017 and still managed to crush it. Brown doesn't just have a dynamic system, he has a dynamic mind that adjusts to his personnel. I think he'll keep the D top 10.
Other teams have found ways to beat OSU without having equal talent. And yet Michigan can’t figure it out to save their life. If Dantonio can figure out how to make a bunch of 3 Star kids beat OSU and win conference titles, then there’s no excuse for Harbaugh to not be able to do the same if not more with the vastly superior talent pool he has access to year after year.
Man everyone ALWAYS wants to point and say “How were we supposed to win with a third string QB??” Uh because that 3rd string QB is a scholarship QB brought in by Harbaugh and had spent 2-3 years being coached up and developed into a better player than when he came in. So excuse some of us if we’re not exactly impressed that a scholarship QB looks THAT BAD after spending multiple years in the program under the QB guru. Sure he was third string....by the END OF THE SEASON. He was 2nd string for the first half! And what does that say about the coaching staff’s ability to develop a capable QB when not one of the three QBs on the depth chart were capable of running the offense??
Simply saying “well he was third string” is like saying “well the house collapsed because the foundation wasn’t built right...” but no one bothers to ask why the foundation wasn’t built right or what the construction crew did that was either wrong or to cut corners.
O’Korn was second/third string and no good, and the other two QBs weren’t much better. That’s the “what” of the equation. But why does no one bother to ask “why”? WHY were zero QBs capable of running the offense they’d been in for multiple years? WHY were zero QBs able to properly read the defense? WHY were zero QBs able to hit open receivers?
Problem is this, once you start getting into the “why” of a problem, it will inevitably lead to fault with the coaches but that’s a no no around here. And sure, you’re going to miss on a QB everyone now and then. Happens all the time at schools all over. But my gosh man, when all three depth chart and scholarship QBs can’t get it done, then there’s a bigger problem beyond the statistical miss on a QB prospect.
And while I’m excited to see Shea Patterson come to Michigan, a big part of me kinda hopes that McCaffrey wins the job or some other Harbaugh recruit because we can’t keep relying on transfer QBs to run the offense. At some point, there has got to be actual development and progress at the QB position of recruited guys who’ve been in the system for multiple years. Someone other than Patterson winning the job would demonstrate that there is actually progress being made with the QBs.
He needs to beat Ohio frickin State this year....that’s what he needs to do. That’s far more important than everything else.
Just Win
Buckeyes are just...the worst. In fact, he while state’s terrible.