SIAP: 2018 season a "tipping point" for Harbaugh
Basically, Bud Elliott of SB nation (their recruiting beat writer) thinks that Harbaugh needs to "actually win some big games" otherwise recruiting could/will implode a la Brady Hoke following 2013.
Michigan did not sign a top-100 prospect in the class of 2018, and the 2019 class hasn’t has a top-200 player commit this calendar year.
... recruiting against Michigan right now is pretty easy: Harbaugh has never won the Big Ten East. He’s never even finished second. He has two ties for third and, most recently, a fourth-place finish.
His offense has been a disappointment. Michigan’s finishes in yards per game so far under Harbaugh are 105th, 58th, and 69th.
An honest assessment of the 2018 roster reveals a deep, talented team primed for a bounce-back. Almost all of the players on this roster were recruited by Harbaugh. It’s go time. If Michigan can go 9-3 or 10-2 in the regular season and win its bowl game, then Harbaugh’s 2017 really will look like a blip compared to 10-win seasons in 2015, 2016, and 2018.
Beating the teams on the field against whom Michigan recruits would really help.
Penn State’s recruiting is on a big roll. Ohio State might sign the No. 1 class in the nation. Wisconsin is putting together its best recruiting class in recent memory.
Harbaugh is 0-3 against Ohio State, 1-2 against Michigan State, 2-1 against Penn State, and 1-1 against Wisconsin. All four are on the schedule this season, as is Notre Dame.
Winning a conference title wouldn’t hurt either. Harbaugh finished second in the Pac-10 twice at Stanford, but has never won an FBS conference.
Link: https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2018/5/24/17383732…
...bust what?
A move?
Bust of Deadpool?
?
Or do you mean "bust up the team"; i.e. cancel the scholarships, implode the BigHouse and erase the Maize Wings from all the helmet?
Cuz that's just plain stupid.
Now if you mean "bust out of the B!G" move to the Ivy league and put our smartypants walk-ons against their smartypants walk ons, that I might be able to get behind.
Or even better, "bust up out of the NCAA", pay 18-23 year old adults a living wage with full lifetime medical benefits to learn to be NFL players while representing UofM, entertaining the students and fanbase and showing the rest of the world what a great environment it is to learn in AA.
Don't imagine it would be too tough to get 8 other programs to follow if it means they don't have to bend over for the NCAA
But like everything else, it will be all in the details of what Michigan does.
If it loses close games not based on bone head plays by Michigan, maybe nothing bad happens with recruiting.
But if Michigan falters and it points to bad coaching, the wheels will most likely fall off again.
7-5 or 8-4 this season, I don't think he will be fired. He may just throw in the towel and said I tried my best here and things did not work out, as he is hired on as a HC for some NFL team.
I'm sorry, man, because you're one of the best posters here and you're a good voice-of-reason type, but I totally disagree with you.
Yes, we lost some games that were extremely close. But the point is that we lost. We've lost 2 of 3 to MSU, 3 of 3 to OSU. Penn State, coming off of crippling sanctions, has won a B1G title and gone to better bowls than us. Their OL stunk? Yeah, sure, so did ours--which one had a good offense last season, and which one didn't?
Recruits aren't going to give Michigan a second look because of a flukey punt block three years ago or a controversial spot two years ago. They're going to look at results. Michigan got the #1 overall player and a top five class a couple of years ago and right now there are at least four teams in the Big Ten that have unquestionably had better results in Harbaugh's time here.
Honestly, we don't have to look further than that #1 overall player. Rashan Gary was recruited hard by Clemson. Since they lost out on him they have won a national title and made the playoff. If Michigan doesn't make the playoff this year every recruiter in the nation can point to Gary and tell other players that he made a mistake picking Michigan. He might not think so, and of course there's more to life than football, but... how do you argue that?
You argue it by winning big this year. There is no other argument.
You're right, but it's this type of pressure that leads to winning being the only morality. I want Michigan to win badly, but I look at the 3 programs that have been ahead of them at different times, and then I think for what they sacrificed for athletic success. I hope Michigan never sinks that low.
again.
Perhaps the team captains should report to midfield and trade rolls of 20 sided dice. If it's all luck what difference would it make?
....were never mentioned with the word luck.
Incredible, bad and random were, and they mean about the opposite of just or all.
Losing to OSU matters, and Michigan needs to get better there. But those loses to MSU absolutely feel like flukes, and what used to be ass-kickings by MSU feel like a relic of the past; Michigan is better than MSU and that will bear out over the long term.
PSU had a great run for two years, but let's see them continue that with changes at OC and in the backfield. They lost a TON of that offense this year, and I'm not sold that Franklin is a particularly great offensive coach. And while I know PSU was hit with a lot of sanctions initially, most of them were rescinded a couple years later; they had basically 2 rough years recruiting and were effectively back to pre-sanction levels of scholarships in 3 years. I'm sure it set them back a bit, but considering that the program actively hid a child molester for decades and was amazingly defensive and resistant to investigations, the fact they were hit with about as many lost scholarships ultimately as USC because of Reggie Bush doesn't seem all that bad. Franklin took over a decent program, had them tread water for a couple of years, then made a nice resurgent jump with a generational player; let's see if that continues with McSorley and a bunch of new faces.
I also don't know why people worry so much about recruiting and what recruiters tell other kids. They've been saying this about Michigan for years, and I'm dubious at it's effect; Brady Hoke convinced the #2 player in the country to come to Michigan coming off a 8-5 year. Michigan will lose recruits to big-name programs, just like big-name programs lose said recruits to Michigan. Are there some kids who really take notice to that stuff? Sure. And you need recent success to combat that. But (and I recognize this as a Michigan alum to be immensely biased) this is fucking Michigan; it's a great university with amazing facilities and opportunities to grow both on and off the field. If a kid picks Clemson over Michigan, good for him. That's his choice. But Michigan isn't chop-liver, and the vast majority of the talk about lost sheen seems to be coming from national writers looking for storylines to push; actual recruits seem pretty happy with Michigan and the staff is making solid inroads with top players. Yes you've got to keep winning, but they survived one of the worst injury stretches at QB I've ever seen at Michigan and were still a couple of plays away from 10+ wins.
When are we going to stop counting losses to rivals as some sort of positive? Who the hell cares if a loss seems like some sort of fluke or not? You act as if those msu losses don't matter because we should have won. It is still a critical loss. It's not a moral victory, just a loss. There is nothing good about it no matter how many times someone on here says bad luck, punt fluke, O'Korn, etc.
I agree with the quoted comments 100%. In 2016 it was "the year" because we had a lot of talent that was going to leave. Last year was a rebuilding year that was mildly below expectations.
But we've seen MSU, OSU, and PSU all reach higher highs in this span within our own division.
This is the year because we have talent and because if we don't achieve this year we may never have the opportunity again while the current regimes exist at our rival schools.
And I don't think 10 wins is enough unless some very strange things happen. This is a team that will play at least 13 games. Hard to see any way this team absorbs 3 losses without it being a blow to reputation and recruiting. If Harbaugh can't win 11-12 games with two top five classes, why would guys that are the types to make up those classes want to play here?
...just to take the other side, consider Penn State.
At one point it looked like the wheels were falling off. There was serious talk about Franklin being dismissed. His assistants were leaving for other schools (at Tennessee no less!).
And then he made an OC hire (which seemed crazy at the time becasue who hires their OC from Fordham?) that ended up being a perfect match for McSorely's skill set, and...suddenly 'Franklin is better than Harbaugh' hot takes are everywhere.
Point being... These things can turn around fast, and they can even turn around when people think the wheels have come off.
While winning the Big Ten this year would super-charge the Harbaugh era, even a 9-3 regular season this year will not mean that the Harbaugh era will never get to the top.
Took Mork a long time to get it together at MSU. Took Dabo a long time at Clemson. It is not always like Pete Carrol at USC.
Penn State is a great example.
The pressure was on, and they looked like they were struggling in 2016. After we demolished them, I watched a video of two sullen PSU newspaper reporters doing a postgame wrap-up (same thing you see with the freep and detnews writers). They were dispirited, one of them saying that the season evoked 2000 when the team went 3-9.
And they turned it around, won a B1G title, and coulda/shoulda won the Rose Bowl. Then they had a very good season, didn't quite win everything, but made the Fiesta Bowl and won against a strong opponent.
Here's the point: Winning turned it around. Harbaugh has not had a season as good as either of PSU's last two. It hurts like all get-out to admit that, but it's true--James Franklin turned things around and he's had a better stint than Harbaugh so far.
If they hadn't started winning, things would have fallen apart. But they didn't. The time is now, Harbaugh has had all of the same assets that Franklin has. Michigan has to win.
...agree.
Except for the very last part where you say JH has to win this year.
I still think that even if 2018 ends 9-3, it is not curtains for Michigan or JH.
A program like Michigan or Penn State can go for long periods of underachievment and with just 1 or 2 years of special seasons, the whole thing becomes an elite program again. Penn State was down for a long, long time. But once they had that 1 special year, the recruiting went up to a much higher level. Did not matter than it took a decade for that one special year to arrive.
If Michigan wins the Big Ten this year, the chain will catch and the motor will spin up.
But the same thing would happen if Michigan has a special year in 2019, or in 2020... There is no magic time limit. If it does not happen in year 4, but does happen in year 6, once it happens the program gets supercharged. This only applies at places that have advantages (tradition, faculities, huge stadium, etc.) like Michigan, Penn State, USC...Texas...
Consider Texas. Long time of far worse underperformance than Michigan. But once they have that 1 special year (this year, 3 years from now, whenever), the chain catches and their recruiting gets supercharged and the whole thing moves back to an elite level.
In other words, Michigan doing the Lloyd Carr thing (9-3) for the next two years would not really prevent the program from having that special year thereafter, and then the consequent recruiting boost.
I do agree, however, that the way the roster lines up, 2018 is a really good opportunity for JH to have that special year that ends upn propelling Michigan to an elite level for years to come.
That's as silly as others frequently saying there is literally no other coach in the country who could replace Harbaugh at Michigan.
I'm tired of waiting. There is plenty of talent on the roster, and almost all of it was picked by the current coach. It's year 4. No more, "but every coach needs X years to" blah blah blah. My opinion is meaningless, as is my "frustrated fan anger." But if this year is a bust, I'll need to put Michigan football on hold a little for the sake of my own emotions and blood pressure, much like I did for the last two RichRod years and almost the entire Hoke era.
Harbaugh has bested Penn State.
Harbaugh has beaten Michigan State.
Harbaugh has beaten Wisconsin.
The only team he hasn’t beaten is Ohio State. And he’ll get it.
It’s ridiculous the narrative going around here that Harbaugh is some terrible coach now.
Sees himself out.....
Wiped out Florida in a Bowl Game too.
How about the anytime coach gets criticism people jump to the "Harbaugh is some terrible coach" narrative?
Harbaugh has a losing record here in big games. How can you act like this is false? However, he is a good coach and just the man we need to take us to the next level. But if he doesn't start winning the majority of the big games and more specifically our rivalry games this year then when will he?
absolutely agree with the article.
1-5 versus MSU and OSU...
beating PSU and Wisky...? Wasn't that always the case before Harbaugh?
Since when did PSU and Wisconsin become big games for Michigan?
Its Year 4... expecting Michigan to actually be in the B1G title race seems like a low bar... at least it should. Michigan's stated goal every year is the B!G title...the 'narrative' only gets louder from this point forward.
I believe in Harbaugh, and love having him as the Coach and think that Patterson will win us at least 2 more games on his own... but we'll have to wait and see.
in fact the situiation before Harbaugh was 5-7 and Hoke 'not fully aware.'
And Michigan could not even make it competive against Minnesota at home.
So...2016 was literally 1 inch from being 'the season.' 2017 was frustrating. But TBH (time before Harbaugh) was grim.
in fact the situiation before Harbauch was 5-7 and Hoke 'not fully aware.'
And Michigan could not even make it competive against Minnesota at home.
So...2016 was literally 1 inch from being 'the season.' 2017 was frustrating. But TBH (time before Harbaugh) was grim.
...I blame Verizon... Or Putin... Or something...
sure... and i think everyone believed Harbaugh was way ahead of schedule in years 1 and 2... which is why people were disappointed in the double whammy of last year... both on the field and recruiting wise.
at a certain point in time, one has to turn the page from blaming hoke and RR... 2018 is Year 4 for Harbaugh, and even though his first recruiting class was a transition year, it was still 'his' class... so the roster turnover means that there are almost no Hoke recruits left on the roster.
Has Michigan suffered bad luck? Sure. But luck is cyclical...if luck is the determining factor between success and failure, the program is sure paying a lot of salary to Harbaugh...
some coaches seem to be able to manufacture their own luck...
That was a team loaded with seniors who bought in the previous year and ended up having 11 draft picks. That was a blown opportunity. If you tell any team/coach/fan base there team will have 11 draft picks on it , that team should be expected to win their conference.
Hoke.
Just making the point that it is wrong to compare 2017 to the last two years of Hoke. The end of the Hoke tenure was far worse than 2017.
how little difference there is between being 1-5 vs Ohio St and Michigan St and 5-1.
The offenscive line needed major overhauling when Jim Harbaugh arrived. This will be the year we finally see the change for the good.