Villanova's Implacable Death Machine Has Played Defenses Like Ours Before
They are terrifying. The world believes, with ample reason, that they are going to carve us to pieces.
I had entertained the thought that maaaaaybe playing a defense of our caliber would result in different results than they're accustomed to. After all, we're really good.
So I checked. And it turns out Villanova has played a defense like ours.
We are the kenpom #3 defense; Texas Tech is the #4 defense (paired with a kenpom #51 offense). And Villanova just beat them, by 12 points.
And, uh, shot 4-24 from 3-point range. Brunson scored 15 points on 18 shot equivalents. They won based upon going 29-35 at the line.
So, um, they probably played a lot of good Ds in the Big East, right? I checked the kenpom D rankings, just scrolling and looking for "BE" in the conference file.
After Villanova itself, the top BE defense I found was St. John's (#29), whom they played twice this year. In the first game at MSG, Donte DiVincenzo went 6-9 from 3 and Villanova won easily by (checks notes) 7 points, 78-71. In the second game, at Nova, Villanova... er, lost 79-75 while shooting 24% from deep.
Scrolling down the kenpom D rankings, the next BE team, at #39, is Providence. Their last meeting, at Providence? Um, 76-71 Providence, with Nova shooting an improbable 3-20 from beyond the arc.
D them up. Hope that the 30% chance our offense shows is a hit. And then, you never know.
... and Villanova is obviously beatable. I would add that VU beat Tennessee during the regular season, who finished the season ranked #13. Also while we were indeed more tested during the regular season, VU has beaten three top-twelve (in Kenpom) teams in the tournament, which closes the gap a bit. I've watched VU play all season, and they certainly have pleny of off-nights (relatively speaking), and likely wouldn't have had the same record having to play in the ACC or (in most seasons) in the Big Ten. They are also certainly deserving of their 1-seed--which no one is disputing--and their top six players are as good as any in the country.
You are correct, they beat Tennessee in the regular season before Tennessee was ranked. That would certainly qualify as a solid win (Tennessee had just beat Purdue as well). UT was up 12 on Nova at halftime, FWIW.
has never had Zavier Simpson in his shirt before.
I expect a similar gameplan to the one they used on Purdue. Let them post up and shoot around 54-58% on those possessions and don't let them get threes. People overrate brunson's game in general but especially his post up game. I've watched all their tourney games except the first round game and his "post game" is extend your off arm to create space and usually push off with that arm, I mean hey it's there for a reason right (sarcasm), either fade away and make the shot 40% of the time, if that, or try to back him down and when you pick your dribble up because you actually have no real post moves, just flail your body until the ref blows his whistle. And one of those prayers is bound to go in for an and-one. He doesn't take people off the dribble, he usually tries to break them down and it doesn't work because he has no explosion or superb, kyrie-like ball handling and he steps back and takes a contested jumper. He is either on fire or ice cold with those. Rarely he'll pump fake and the guy bites and he gets his free throws which is the only consistent part of his game. He also travels on every drive off of the pick and roll, he picks up his dribble, takes two steps, then hops, then most of the time he takes another step to pass out of the paint once he's trapped by the other team. That's five but God forbid they ever call that on Nova. His defense is a lot of what michigan would get called for on touch fouls, but again the Nova bias, which was in full effect against Tech and especially against West Virginia. Kansas played horrible and still scored 79, more than we gave up to Texas A&M who arguably is a much worse mismatch for us than Kansas was for Nova.
I don't care about brunson's numbers for the season or tape of him doing stuff I said he can't do because it wasn't in the tournament, where you play consistently decent players, not the gong show that is the Big East. Spellman is the only consistent player on the team and the only guy that can drive the basket without a bunch of picks set for him. They finally played a decent team in Kansas and Self decided to not gameplan at all for the entire week and it also just so happened Nova had their hottest shooting game possible. It was a perfect storm and they still only won by 4 more points than michigan did. michigan faced huge adversity and was able to play a complete team game for 10 minutes. Nova got hot from the start which demoralized Kansas and essentially put the game away. It comes down to who wants it more. If Michigan plays like this is the last basketball game they will ever play, I don't care what any player on Nova does, Michigan will win. They need to give 110% on defense the whole game and play smart on that end. I don't care about Michigan getting hot either. It will be won or lost with their effort on defense. Legendary defense beats great offense and all defense takes effort. Michigan needs that legendary defensive effort and they will win.
I see you're back this week with an even longer explanation about why Brunson and Villanova aren't really that good. Your analsis is definitely long but it's complete nonsense. Brunson swept the national player of the year awards and that's not because he pushes off with his arm or gets lucky foul calls. Let the game play out tonight and be happy if Michigan wins but it doesn't mean you know a single thing about basketball.
What's up?? Hold that L.
Texas Tech's defense is barely in the top-30 in efficiency since February, FWIW.
I'm not making any predictions, but this is not the mismatch people are making it out to be. I think a lot of the misperception of this game is based on overrating KU, which was not a particularly good team by Kansas standards and which overacheived to win the Big 12 and make the Final Four. Michigan will play much better defense than the Jayhawks. The Wolverines are going to have to shoot well to win, no doubt, but you're always going to have to do that to win a national championship game.
What is Texas Tech's foul rate compared to Michigan?
The real key to the game .. we have Beilein AND Yaklich. Yin and Yang. I imagine the prep for this game went something like this ...
Coach B: "Coach Yak, come here. This is how you stop my offense, the most efficient offense in all of college basketball ..."
Coach B: **hands Yaklich a crinkled folder full of dog-eared papers**
Coach Yaklich **opens the crinkled folder, a golden glow fills the room**
THE END
This is what I have been trying to say all along. Villanova didnt win their regular season title, and won their conference title in OT against Providence. And its not like the Big East is full of World Beaters. In my mind, that proves that they are very much beatable. Michigan has a great coaching staff and a bunch of guys who are being told they have no shot. Call me crazy, but I think we get it done tonight. It is the Year of the Dog after all!
Nova is really good, but I don't think they played in a challenging conference. They were the only team in their conference to survive the first weekend. In fact, I think we'd be playing Purdue tonight if Haas would have been healthy.
I'm not expecting us to win, but it wouldn't be a big surprise. This will not be the blowout that everybody on every network is predicting.
Sorry for just picking your comment to reply to. There's plenty of other people dismissing the Big East here but yours stuck out to me for "not our daddy's Big East". That's a load of crap. 60% of the conference made the tournament after 70% made it last year. They had two #1 seeds this year. Nova won a title 2 years ago in "not our daddy's Big East". On the other hand the Big Ten was significantly down this year. They had 28% make the tournament and they haven't won a title since 2000. I would say they are "not my daddy's Big Ten".
I BELIEVE WE WILL FLY
Texas A&M was ranked higher than Nova in Kenpom defensive efficiency. I'm not saying that Michigan will light up Villanova with their shooting, but if Michigan did it against the Aggies, there is no reason it can't happen again tonight.
Just need our shots to fall and we can definitely win this game. Comes down to that, really.
A #16 seed beat the overall #1 team in their backyard in the first round. End of story.
This is the beauty of college basketball and March Madness. Stats, Predictions, etc. etc. mean jack shit.
Can Michigan win tonight? ABSOLUTELY.
God damn you, SRJK. for the last 43 hours I've maintained a healthy, aloof, pessimistic detachment from this game. Now, you've gone and gotten me nervously excited. So, all you've really accomplished is guaranteeing me a bigger hangover tomorrow morning than usual. Thanks a lot.
Of course we can win but Nova is a team with a 6 man rotation that was down two starters when they lost to St. Johns so a little context is important.
Their offense is good, it will get points but our defense is good too, i don't think they are putting up 80 points on us. This game comes down to our offense, because we aren't winning this game scoring 65 points 1 point per possesion.
Play Good D, and make most of our baskets . Stay out of foul trouble = NATIONAL TITLE BABY
BTT- Michigan beat Wisconsin 71-56
NCAA tournament, a week later, (8) Wisconsin beat (1) Villanova by 3 in the round of 32.
you'll have to return the favor after the game
They are hot. We are hotter. Their path was hard and so was ours. We have defense. They have offense. Our best wins are better and more recent than their best wins. Depending on the usual circumstances regarding odd bounces, lucky shots, certain calls by referees, this game may go to overtime.