Recruiting Comparison: OSU vs UM Since 2011 (ESPN)
Most of us know this already, but I was having a discussion on another thread and it appears some don't so I decided to post it here. This is not meant to be a Debbie Downer, just meant to illuminate that OSU is and has been for quite some time, more talented than us. Also, you can chose a different recruiting service and get a slightly different ranking, but the general theme will be the same. This is just since 2011 to prevent it from taking too long to put together. Without further ado here is how we compare for the last 8 years.
2010
OSU - 16
UM - 14
2011
OSU - 7
UM - 30
2012
OSU - 6
UM - 7
2013
OSU - 3
UM - 6
2014
OSU - 7
UM - 18
2015
OSU - 6
UM - 40
2016
OSU - 5
UM - 6
2017
OSU - 2
UM - 6
Average
OSU - 6.5
UM - 15.1
Notes
- When OSU was going through Tatgate and had the coaching change they had the #16 class.
- When we transferred from RR to Hoke we had the #30 class.
- When we transitioned from Hoke to Harbaugh we had the #40 class.
- OSU's coaching change costed them an average of 10 spots.
- Our coaching changes costed us an average of 15 spots.
- Our top classes were #6 and #7.
- OSU's top classes were #2 and #3 (OSU does currently have the #1 class for 2018 which projects to be a down class for us).
- Our current freshman and sophomores are more closely ranked to theirs however our current juniors and seniors are much less talented.
- If we both continue to recruit this way we will be similarly talented in 2 more years, albeit still slightly worse.
- Overall even when we have years of great classes, they also have great classes which outperform us, but when we both have down years our down years are down much further than theirs.
The original point was that we are not going to out-talent OSU. We have never really recruited better than OSU in the modern era with any consistently and probably can't project to anytime soon. They have many of the same resources we do, but with more recent success and fewer coaching changes. We are likely going to have to do more with less through coaching, scouting, and development. I am not sure this is currently happening, but to be fair we still have to wait another year or two to really tell assuming both Harbaugh & Meyer are still around.
November 24th, 2017 at 11:16 AM ^
November 24th, 2017 at 12:11 PM ^
I'm not sure how exact a science recruiting rankings were back then, but on the field, from about 1993 on, Cooper's teams were loaded with future NFL guys. We had plenty of talent ourselves but I wouldn't say we out-talented them from that point onward. We generally had better QB play, though, and that was key.
November 24th, 2017 at 12:22 PM ^
November 24th, 2017 at 12:52 PM ^
No, but it's moved a few inches closer in that direction.
November 24th, 2017 at 12:25 PM ^
We had our own future NFL guys. They were not out-recrutitng us.
Now, on the topic of underperforming on the field versus our recrutitng rankings, that's a whole different story. You can certainly make that case. It's pretty hard to say we were maximizing our talent fully.
But we had the talent.
Ohio State was not out-recrutitng us.
November 24th, 2017 at 1:01 PM ^
We had plenty of talent; I don't disagree about that. I'm just hesistant to agree that we had more during the 1993-2000 period than they did. 1988-92, yes.
The perception back then was that Cooper also wasn't always getting the most out of his talent. He feasted on most opposition but struggled not only against Michigan but also bowl opponents.
Meyer not only is recruiting like a madman but is getting the most out of his guys almost all the time. He might be their best coach in program history. A 70-8 record in this day and age . . . man. The one chink in his armor might be that in tight games he gets a bit predictable with his playcalling and calls his QB's number too much. But they don't play that many tight games.
November 24th, 2017 at 12:33 PM ^
Great info, thanks for adding! I think the idea that OSU was the more talented team in the 90's was because they were more often than not ranked ahead of UM in the polls when we played. It's good to know that when we out-recruited them we beat them. Now we're not...and we're not.
One thing I do recall during that tenure is that we had phenomenal o-line, RBs, WRs, QBs, and CBs. We seemed to have a top player in the country at every one of those positions. That just doesn't happen any more except for maybe one position at a time.
November 24th, 2017 at 12:35 PM ^
Been beating this drum for years. Great analysis M-Dog.
November 24th, 2017 at 10:57 AM ^
November 24th, 2017 at 11:12 AM ^
November 24th, 2017 at 3:01 PM ^
or not.
Due to our recruiting drought, Urbz has a lot more options.
November 24th, 2017 at 11:17 AM ^
November 24th, 2017 at 11:24 AM ^
November 24th, 2017 at 11:58 AM ^
ugh. sad but fair assessment on offense.
November 24th, 2017 at 12:37 PM ^
And the reason we will never beat them in recruiting is because guys like Brian Smith, Pep Hamilton, Tim Drevno, Mike Zordich, etc don't even recruit.
November 24th, 2017 at 11:33 AM ^
It's been more than 13 years against us since then.
I don't think we will really know just how well we match up until 2 years from now when we have Peters as a JR, MAYBE a good OL, Black and DPJ as JRs, and a favorable home schedule.
I'm confident Don will have top 20 defenses.
Notice how PSU's recruiting took off once they won the B1G last year - one BIG season goes a long way to getting the 5 star guys.
November 24th, 2017 at 12:03 PM ^
November 24th, 2017 at 12:21 PM ^
November 24th, 2017 at 11:47 AM ^
I remember Urban cherry-picking some recruits away from MSU and Wisky when he was hired but don't recall if these guys ever made it.
We've had a large number of 4-5 star guys underwhelm or drop out - dating back to Lloyd's days.
Kelly Baraka, Gabe Watson, Larry "Flash" Harrison, Kevin Grady, McGuffie, Cissoko, Derrick Brown, Ondre Pipkins, etc. To many to count - but more than just 1 coaching staff was involved.
Who's the last big name guy who flopped at OSU? Justin Zwick?
November 24th, 2017 at 12:14 PM ^
November 24th, 2017 at 12:41 PM ^
Baraka was kicked off the team
Gabe Watson was a 2x 1st team All B1G player
Larry Harrison was a 3 star recruit
Grady tore his knee up and then had to go thru a scheme change
McGuffie was nowhere near a 5 star
November 24th, 2017 at 12:04 PM ^
This should start evening things out a bit more, at least, I am hoping.
November 24th, 2017 at 12:15 PM ^
November 24th, 2017 at 12:26 PM ^
November 24th, 2017 at 12:27 PM ^
The crumby small classes we had in 2014 and 15 are now juniors and seniors. Most of the talent we have are Freshmen and Sophs. I hate to make excuses, but this is a serious transition year. Harbaugh is bringing in talent and he'll continue to do it consistantly....and he'll actually develop it. I hate having to be patient, but the future is bright. Harbaugh and this program will be hitting their stride in years four and five. The overhaul that Harbaugh has had to do is immense....a much more diificult job than Meyer walked into. 8 wins seems to be rock bottom. I'll take it.
November 24th, 2017 at 12:29 PM ^
Using the class rank doesn't tell an accurate story.
You get a more relevent comparision when you compare the average ranking of the recruits. There is a vast gulf between the player ratings.
For example, in 2017, 247 sports ranked Ohio State #2 and Michigan #5. Those classes seem comparable. However, Michigan had 30 recruits and Ohio State had 21. If you look at the average player rating, Ohio State's was 94.59 (#1, over a full point higher than Alabama's #1 ranked class), while Michigan's was 91.20. To put the difference between those numbers in perspective, that's roughly the same delta as there is between Michigan and Nebraska's #23 ranked class. Over a three-point gap is enormous.
This year, barring disaster, Ohio State will finish with a top three class (they're currently ranked #1), and Michigan will probably finish with a #8-#10 or thereabouts. Which again, might seem like no big deal, they're both in the top 10. But Ohio State's average player rating is 95.07, while Michigan's is currently 89.40. Putting those classes in the same bucket under a "top 10" labels is simply misleading. Using the same method as I did for 2017 to put that difference in context, that's about the same gap as between Michigan and Minnesota's 35th ranked class.
Ohio State's recruiting is, by far, the best it has ever been in the modern era of limited scholarships. If it keeps going as it has been, they're going to be at a significant talent advantage every year, mitigated only by the fact that they players they're getting are so good that most starters will be gone after their 3rd year, meaning that unless they play as true freshmen, they'll only contribute for two years.
None of this is to say that Michigan shouldn't expect to beat Ohio State with some regularity; there are a lot of factors that play into a team's success and the outcome of any individual game beyond just the native talent of the players. But I don't think the evidence supports the idea that Michigan is closing the talent gap, at least at this point-- primarily due to Meyer's unprecedented level of recruiting, rather than a failure on Harbaugh's fault.
November 24th, 2017 at 3:03 PM ^
simply by time passing and the upperclassmen not coming from the barren 2014 and 2015.
November 24th, 2017 at 12:44 PM ^
This thread glossed over 2018 a bit. Sure, it's still in progress. But if the overall narrative of this OP is that the talent gap is closing, how do you reconcile that with the talent inflows and outflows for next season? Here's what's rolling off with the mix of RS seniors from 2013 and seniors from 2014:
2013
OSU - 3
UM - 6
2014
OSU - 7
UM - 18
And rolling on:
2014
OSU - 1
UM - 14
Once the higher ranked kids left on the Board sign, we'll probably be around 20 or so. They have 11 top 100 kids this year, we have 0. For top 250 kids it is 16 to 6. Hopefully, this is just a year whether things don't go our way in recruiting, like 2000, and just a temporary blip. Although I do wonder about the impact of the narrative around the program changing. And the effects of swapping out Wheatley/Fisch for Frey/Hamilton as recruiters. Anyway, regardless, the talent/experience mix gets more favorable the next two years because we have a disproportionate # of (RS) Fr/So currently. But the talent gap is actually going to be a little bit wider next year than this year.
November 24th, 2017 at 12:49 PM ^
"They have 11 top 100 kids this year, we have 0."
Don't worry. 2040 is totally our year.
November 24th, 2017 at 6:58 PM ^
Wasn't Dudek a late add (like July) as our Director of Recruiting? I wondered if he may have been added and his position was created because of the subpar beginning to the 2018 recruiting class. 2019 is shaping up a lot better with a more full recruiting support staff now hired, but 2018 has been really weird. I guess they might get Tyler Friday but other than that they'll add 3 star guys who are late risers and had good senior years to their current haul.
November 24th, 2017 at 12:59 PM ^
recruiting rankings. It is a start, but doesn't really explain the losses to Wisconsin, Michigan State and Penn State, 2 of which were blowouts.
| year/team | Michigan | Wisconsin | Michigan State | Penn State |
| 2017 | 6 | 40 | 32 | 17 |
| 2016 | 6 | 41 | 22 | 18 |
| 2015 | 40 | 38 | 29 | 14 |
| 2014 | 18 | 34 | 29 | 24 |
| 2013 | 6 | 33 | 35 | 24 |
| Average | 15.2 | 37.2 | 29.4 | 19.4 |
In my opinion, the problem Michigan has been having is more about holes in the recruiting 3-4 years ago (particularly QB and OL) and these players changing coaches and systems. Player development also was lacking under Hoke.
Wisconsin, PSU MSU = systems and coaches long in place that the players fully know and understand by the time they see the field. Michigan not yet.
This is a lot to recover from and a couple of highly ranked freshmen and sophmores are only going to do so much.
November 24th, 2017 at 1:41 PM ^
November 24th, 2017 at 4:07 PM ^
It sounds like you're saying that because Wisconsin beat us and we have more talent than Wisconsin, then talent is not the reason we don't beat OSU. But, that is flawed logic. If that were the case Wisconsin would beat OSU. Further, if you compare UM to Wisconsin where is all our talent? It's in the freshman and sophomore classes. Where are all of Wisconsin's 4-star players? It's at o-line and LB. Those are the two of the positions they do excel at. Where does Wisconsin lack talent? At the QB, WR, SDE/WDE, and DB positions.
So, our d-line still handled Wisconsin's o-line, which are pretty similarly ranked. DPJ also had a good game against Wisconsin's CBs where we have an obvious talent advantage, but our talent is much younger. The place where we struggled against Wisconsin was our o-line against their LBs which makes sense because they have talent at LB and they are experienced. While we have talent at o-line but we are young.
So, all this makes perfect sense. If all our positions were RS soph/jr/sr they way their's are I'd expect to win that game.
November 24th, 2017 at 9:26 PM ^
November 24th, 2017 at 4:13 PM ^
And while our last two clases were similarly ranked, our recruiting class this year will have to play well above their ranking to equal OSU's class. I'm not sure what happened with 2018 recruiting. It is shaping up to be like our 2014 class from a rankings standpoint.
November 24th, 2017 at 4:16 PM ^
2014 and 15 classes were underwhelming
and about 1/2 of those in those classes are not even with the team any more
we have talent, just very inexperienced
this was always going to be the toughest season because of that
the sky isn't falling people