The Four Toughest Games
22 days until kickoff. Thank you, Jebus.
I see a lot of predictions from national outlets dismissing Michigan's chances in the big four games this year (Florida, @PSU, @Wisky, OSU). Lots of "maybe they pick off one, but they're too young." Instead of redundant talk about how they're Harbaugh's guys and youth won't matter, why are these games being dismissed as Michigan losses so early?
Florida-inept offense for four years running. Never ranking above 70 in offensive S&P. Defense returning only a handful of starters, without the same talent replenishment from years past. 15th in recruiting two years ago, which followed a 23rd ranking. Including the 41-7 bowl loss two years ago, Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama, and FSU all racked up 30-plus points.
PSU-Obviously, 49-10 last year. Barkley may be elite, but he hasn't been for two years against M. Who has been able to pass the ball on Michigan in the last two years? CU, which is a quick passing spread. RB wheel routes? Connor Cook laser accuracy? It's been a tough nut to crack. Without a good PSU OL, this is a defensive slugfest. Which leads me to...
Nobody is talking about how mediocre their defense is. 42 points to Pitt. 49 against Michigan. 31 against depleted Indiana. 31 against pedestrian Wisky. 52 against USC. Why are they highly regarded?
Wisconsin-How are they going to move the ball? Defense will probably be solid, but they've lost tons of playmakers that set that defense apart (Cichy, Watt, Biegel, Shelton). The only way I see this falling apart is an Iowa-esque performance. Given our record in Big Ten West road games (Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa), that's certainly possible.
OSU-Don't talk about them until after a few games in. I have no idea what to think with the turnover and coaching changes. All I know is I don't like them.
August 11th, 2017 at 10:02 AM ^
This is a very reasonable analysis. The thing I hate about the Florida game is that its our first game of the year. All of these new guys won't have the luxery of getting a cupcake under their belt before we face all of the unknowns with Florida.
Love the thought process with Penn State. I wasn't too worried about that game until I read your opinion on it and I have to agree with it. Now I hate that game. Thanks, you're a dick.
August 11th, 2017 at 10:06 AM ^
OTOH, Florida is also replacing most of its defense (8 new starters, I think--possibly 9 with that safety going down) and will probably be breaking in a grad transfer QB. So the first game issue might actually be a net benefit for M, all things considered.
August 11th, 2017 at 10:21 AM ^
It is a reasonable analysis, yes, but I believe we will answer all the questions in a pounding, positive fashion. Here come DA MACHINE!
August 11th, 2017 at 9:54 AM ^
August 11th, 2017 at 10:02 AM ^
I don't really read national sports media, so I have no idea what they are saying. But I do think the Florida game will be tougher than most M fans seem to think. With Zaire and Franks, Nussmeier finally has a couple decent QBs to work with again so Florida's poor offensive showing the past few seasons could be misleading. I do think M is the better team but maybe by a TD, perhaps 10 poiints better if Callaway is out. Not 41-7 though.
I think a lot of people are discounting M's big win over Penn State last season because it was at the Big House and Penn State had pretty much no healthy LBs on defense. Also, the "Penn State's OL sucks" thing seems like something that isn't really true anymore; they had that game a couple years ago where they gave up like 1,000 sacks against Temple and the reputation has stuck, but now it seems to be at least a middle-of-the-road line. Nonetheless, I'll believe Penn State beats a Harbaugh team when I see it. M just has way more overall talent and I still don't take Franklin seriously. Road game, schmode game.
Wisconsin is going to be a tough one. M hasn't won at Camp Randall since what, like early 2000s? It's a good overall team, veteran squad, late season game, tough envionment, etc. If M stays healthy heading into that game and the young players develop, there is no reason M can't go in there are get the W. But if M takes a couple key injuries or doesn't get the production we are hoping for out of some new guys, then that game could be a problem. I also want to see what Hornibrook's arm strength looks like this year. Last season he was a very good decisionmaker in the pocket and very accurate, but his lack of arm strength really limited Wisconsin's ability to stretch defenses. He's not going to suddenly be Brett Favre. But if he can demonstrate some improved velocity this season, I'd kick the difficulty of that game up a notch or two.
Ohio State looks to have the better team this season. The talent gap is much narrower now than in seasons past, and the game is at home, so M will certainly have a good chance to pull the upset. But right now I think that game remains a probable loss on the schedule.
August 11th, 2017 at 10:04 AM ^
I feel like one of PSU, Wisc. and OSU is a must win in the sense that this team needs to get over the hump of winning a big road game and/or beating OSU. Florida is a toss-up. If they do lose, I feel like the rest of the season is still in good shape. I don't feel they should lose to the other 8 teams on their schedule. I know, football and anything can happen and such, but it shouldn't happen.
The national narrative on this team is being repeated and recycled through the talking heads, who really don't know anything in depth about any teams. I've even heard the same talking points from Big Ten Network guys who in theory should know a little more.
August 11th, 2017 at 10:54 AM ^
August 11th, 2017 at 10:12 AM ^
We are going to win 3 of those 4 games. FL for sure. OSU is going to be another one. I feel everybody is ready now for this. The coaches, the players, the fans. It will make the difference.
We need to win one of PSU, WI. We better make sure it is PSU this time if we want to go to Indianapolis, and it embarassing that we have never gone.
August 11th, 2017 at 10:25 AM ^
At the very least, I'm hoping for two of the four. I'd consider the season very underwhelming if they lose all four.
August 11th, 2017 at 10:24 AM ^
with young players, it's the mental game that makes an Air Force or Maryland a risky proposition. Por ejemplo, Inidiana is sandwiched between MSU and PSU. On the road, that could catch a young team.
The end of the year run is 4 straight weeks of increasing difficulty and they'll have to show they're getting stronger every week.
None of this is to say I doubt this team - it's that land mines scare me more than "tough" games.
August 11th, 2017 at 10:27 AM ^
B10 roadies are brutal. I'd take a split right now against PSU and Wisky. Both will be tough games.
August 11th, 2017 at 10:46 AM ^
I'm not sure why you're baffled.
I am hoping Michigan wins these games. I want them to win these games. But hope and want are the key words.
But these are preseason prognostications. Objectively: Why would anybody who's not a fan of the Wolverines think Michigan, the youngest team in country, would win all of those or most of those games? Because Harbaugh? Harbaugh, who hasn't beaten OSU yet (and yes I know about the refs last year, but, truthfully, 99% of the time only fans of teams who lost remember refs) ... who's 1-1 against MSU (although should be 2-0 ... I still haven't gotten over that damn punt block and not sure I ever will) ... who hasn't finished higher than third in the BIG East.
I think 2-2 (assuming Michigan wins all its other games) would be a great season for this team and lead to a lot of excitement in 2018. Anything better than that is gravy. Anything worse than that and we're all going to have to spend an entire offseason listening to the media and oposing fans talk about how Harbaugh and the Wolverines are always overhyped and overrated.
Then again, last year in the preseason nobody was picking Penn State. That prediction would have been crazy.
August 11th, 2017 at 11:42 AM ^
But I don't think I've seen one national prediction that has Michigan competing with PSU. I see a lot of 34-20, 35-21 type of picks. That's what baffles me. The only time a Harbaugh team has been blown out was against possibly the best OSU team (talent-wise) of the last 20 years. I doubt James Franklin has his team near that level.
It's not necessarily a disbelief at Michigan losing those games. If Michigan is 9-3, I won't be too surprised. However, it seems to be nationaly unanimous that Michigan will be overwhelmed by Florida's "experience", and has no chance in Happy Valley.
It's weird seeing two teams that Michigan dominated in recent years as not even being toss-ups to a host of people.
August 11th, 2017 at 10:58 AM ^
Michigan itself has ben fortunate regarding injuries thus far. But its a young team with depth and major experience issues in parts.
Not difficult to imagine a scenario where injuries cut a young Michigan team down to size.
Hope not. But it is possible.
August 11th, 2017 at 11:29 AM ^
I agree with this.
If we have minimal injuries, we likely will be going to Indy. Lose a couple starters for extended time, we might be looking at 4 losses.
This year, more than in years past, I think is dependent on injuries.
(That's why I like our chances against Florida by the way. We should have healthy starters.)
August 11th, 2017 at 12:38 PM ^
We'll kick Penn State's ass. They had a soft crossover schedule last year, and they lucked out on the scoop and score blocked field goal against Ohio State. We beat them by 39 in Ann Arbor, and now they are favored against us by 14. I don't think so, not a 53 point turnaround. I don't care what color t-shirts their fans wear for our game. They are going down. Just like 2015 when we throttled Barkley and Hackenburg in Happy Valley.
August 11th, 2017 at 2:13 PM ^
I didn't believe that spread until I looked it up. I'll take those points every day of the week.
August 11th, 2017 at 12:40 PM ^
Your post feels a litle bit like MSU crying disrespekt. Who is predicting us to lose all 4? I just did a google search and I can't find a single prediction that has us losing all 4 of those (Athlon, Land of Ten, CBSsports, Vegas). I'm sure there are some, but c'mon. Most of those predictions were based on a panel and in the panel I couldn't find a single prediction of going 0 for 4 in those games. Those are all tough teams and in some cases tough environments as well (PSU/Wiscy). I don't see a single game that is a guaranteed loss, but to predict that we win 3 or 4 of those (and assuming we win the other 8) is a much bolder prediction. UM historically gets very favorable coverage and expectations/rankings based solely on our name and history. It's not a good look when we cry about something like this, especially when it doesn't even appear to be true. It appears to me that expectations are for about 9.5 wins. I think that's fair. That's basically splitting the 4 you mention and a chance of dropping a random game.
August 11th, 2017 at 1:35 PM ^
I agree with you and think we'll be fine if we can avoid injuries against air force. Thanks, Dave.
August 11th, 2017 at 1:40 PM ^
August 11th, 2017 at 10:53 PM ^
@ PSU and @ WI for a win at home against OSU.
August 11th, 2017 at 11:46 PM ^
isn't elite but it's not bad either. The numbers are misleading. They had a million injuries early in the season. They were missing 6 defensive starters against us. 4 starters in the front 7 alone against Pitt. Wisconsin had a defensive touchdown and another one set up by a turnover. The best weapon against them is to be able to throw the football effectively. Indiana had success throwing the ball, so did USC. People will point out the rushing yards they gave up to Pitt/Michigan but they were so depleted up front. Last year was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the defense even when healthy since they were replacing 3 elite d-lineman from the year before. So once all those guys went down it was a disaster early on.
They are not bad but DE is a question mark this year, as is depth at LB, CB. Will be top 5 D in the B1G if they stay healthy.