This Week's Obsession: Wagner or Wilson?
Pick one. Not so easy, right? [Marc-Gregor Campredon]
If you can only choose one, which player would you rather have back next year: Moe Wagner or DJ Wilson?
Ace: The genesis of this question was a lengthy twitter thread that had some good points on both sides. While it’s close, I lean just barely to the side of Wagner, who I think is a better college player than pro prospect; Wilson is the opposite. While you’re certainly sacrificing some defense to keep Wagner, the consistently efficient offensive outputs are tough to pass up, especially since he showed last year he can create for himself, something the team sorely needs sans Walton (especially) and Irvin.
Wilson is a bit too much of a wild card; he can put it all together and make this conversation look stupid, or he can essentially be the guy he was last year—he’d need to dramatically change his approach to be the lead guy we’d want him to be.
BiSB: I agree that Wagner is a better college player. But at the same time, I think Wilson leaving would leave a bigger hole in the lineup. Teske and Davis are largely untested, but at least they are extant. Unless Wagner is going to play minutes in a two-big sort of lineup, you're looking at Duncan Robinson playing a ton of minutes at the four. And while his defense has gotten somewhat better, and you can get away with it against certain types of teams, that's still a glaring hole in the defense.
Brian: This question depends heavily on how much those guys improve from last year, when they were way behind Mark Donnal. To be honest, I'd expect a Wilson-no-Wagner team to have DJ at the 5 for 20 minutes a game. Late last season that was almost already the case and small ball is all the rage at every level of basketball.
Ace: The defensive impact is what keep this close for me. Wilson is more versatile positionally, quicker, and a better rim protector. But I’m also not sold on Teske or Davis being a better option than more Robinson; I’m not sure either packs enough offensive oomph to make that a desirable swap. There are lineups than can run Robinson off the court, but there are also lineups that can probably run Teske, who’s rather ponderous, off the court as well.
BiSB: Perhaps my assumption that John Beilein could turn five confused baby ducklings into a top-25 KenPom offense is too strong.
But I do feel like DJ is what gives Michigan flexibility at both ends of the court.
[Hit THE JUMP as the debate continues, now with Synergy numbers.]
The more refined offensive player... [Bryan Fuller]
Brian: Also our NBA draft entrants aren't static players either. The NBA evidently thinks that Wilson has more upside at their level. In college I'm not so sure. Wagner is 14 months younger and should improve more rapidly.
Ace: Wilson’s NBA upside is also focused on him becoming more developed as a role player, not expanding his repertoire to be an all-around superstar. His NBA value is going to be as a versatile defender who can shoot with range. He’s not going to be a big-usage guy. Wagner already has a pretty advanced offensive game.
Seth: CT put out a tweet yesterday on Wilson-less lineups:
— CT in TC (@CT_In_TC) May 18, 2017
I think a lineup that can run Robinson off the court can also feature Wilson at the 5. Like Ace and BiSB said, that versatility is an underrated weapon in the hands of a tinkerer like Beilein. There's also the downside of projection: what if Wagner stalls out on defense, or his development doesn't come until February when Michigan has to make another run like last year to even make the tourney. And I put some stock in the idea that DJ's defense has a psychological effect, or at least the absence of an excellent defender can sink morale.
...or the superior defender with positional flexibility? [Eric Upchurch]
BiSB: I'm not terribly worried about Wagner stalling out. The rate of improvement may be unsustainable, but...
Ace: While he’s a more limited athlete, Wagner’s defensive issues also stem largely from mental lapses and a lack of functional strength. Those are almost certain to improve.
I think it still comes back to offensive creation, though. Wagner drove a lot of his own offense last year. It takes skill and smarts to be as good as he was as the roll/pop man off high screens, something Wilson didn’t do a whole lot of last year. Per Synergy, Wagner was 81st percentile nationally on post-ups and 77th on isolations. On a much lower volume, Wilson was 51st and 77th, respectively.
If Michigan pushed tempo more, Wilson would add more offensive value, because he’s a great transition player. If anything, though, Michigan may push the tempo less without Walton snagging a bunch of boards.
Seth: I think you've convinced me Ace, but I'm making a devil's advocate case: I trust the development curve, but it's becoming almost tradition now for that to come late in the season. M has a couple of shots at a signature non-conference victory very early in Maui and then the UCLA at home and the Texas return trip. Does DJ or Mo give Michigan a better shot to win those games? Because whatever team is on the court in November you know it'll be far worse than what's out there in February.
Ace: Wilson’s regular disappearing acts down the stretch last year isn’t really helping his case in that context. And, as Brian noted, Wagner is the younger player. He’s as likely to have a breakthrough (more likely on defense than offense) as Wilson. Plus Wagner is more advanced right now, for those November games.
BiSB: It is decided. Both must stay, so we can see who was right.
Seth: Alright then my last arguments for DJ: 1) Wagner is a foul magnet, and since he doesn't actually commit many of those fouls I don't know if that can be fixed. And 2) DJ is by far the more sartorially pleasing player. High hair and short shorts are interesting and cool. Wagner doesn't have so much as a stick-on tat.
Ace: The hair and shorts would be sorely missed, granted.
Wagner’s foul issues are a little overblown now because the nature of his fouls were often frustrating and Beilein did his autobench thing, which was more viable with Wilson presenting another option at center. His 4.5 fouls/40 minutes mark is pretty reasonable for a center.
Rebounding hasn't been a strength for either player. [Campredon]
Ace: Honestly, rebounding should be the area where Wilson swings this in his favor, but he just wasn’t aggressive enough last year. I know I don’t need to bring up specific instances.
Brian: Yeah, every once in a while he'd grab an OREB and I was like "where has that been all year?"
BiSB: How much of that was schematic, though? Michigan sent four guys back on almost every shot, and has for quite some time.
Brian: They let GRIII go on the offensive boards so I don't see why it would be impossible.
Ace: Beilein mentioned that he reminded Wilson to attack the glass more before the Rutgers game. Had six offensive boards. It didn’t stick—only had two multi-OR games the rest of the year. That’s on Wilson.
BiSB: True. At the same time... Rutgers. (And yes, I know rebounding was the one thing Rutgers Athletics did reasonably okay... but I stand by my "Rutgers")
Ace: He had six against Illinois in the revenge game, too. Then the rebounding disappeared again.
Brian: Wilson's defense also varied in its intensity a great deal. At times he was very aggressive and very, very good. But for big chunks of the year it felt like he wasn't making much of a difference because he was also scared of foul trouble. You have to hope that the addition of Davis and (hopeful) development of Teske makes those guys more willing to take chances.
Last year every foul had someone on the team looking back at the bench for Donnal. If a rebounder and decent defender is in that role this year the foul trouble is less of a disaster.
Ace: Or hopefully—and last year did provide some hope here—Beilein becomes even less stringent about autobench and his players stop looking over their shoulder after every foul. But that’s probably unrealistic.
BiSB: It felt like his relenting on the autobench was more for the guards. He let MAAR go more than most. I think it stays the rule for the bigs?
Ace: He made a couple exceptions in tourney time, but you kinda have to at that point.
More of this, please.
Brian: I have my doubts that Wagner is ever going to be a plus defender--his combine testing numbers were very bad--but if he stops getting every 50/50 call against him and adds ten pounds he can be functional, right? He was the only guy on the team to rank nationally in steal rate (2.7%) last year and we all remember that game against Swanigan where he had something like seven turnovers. He was a wing two years ago, he should be a bad defender.
That plus his ability to create shots and spread the floor from the 5 make me vote Wagner even if Wilson is a better NBA prospect.
Ace: His ability to create havoc can turn him into an average defender, and at that point I think he’s the obvious choice because of his offense.
BiSB: Gah, I'm convinced. Wagner uber Wilson.
Ace: I should mention since I’m staring at the Synergy defense page: it’s a big gap between Wilson and Wagner. There’s a similar gap in offensive usage, however.
Brian: Let us have the numbers Ace.
Ace: Wilson graded out in the 83rd percentile, 0.74 PPP allowed. Wagner: 17th, 0.98.
Based on usage and the eyeball test, though, Wilson did a lot of that against wings.
Brian: yaaargh
Ace: It’s a lot closer in post defense. Wilson was 42nd percentile, Wagner 22nd.
Brian: What was Donnal?
Ace: 25th percentile in post defense.
Brian: So it shouldn't be hard for one of the two second-year players to provide an upgrade in that department.
Ace: The extremely limited Teske sample, not to mention his whole recruiting profile, indicates that would be the case. Gave up nine points on 15 defensive possessions.
If Matthews was a sure thing I’d still probably lean Wilson because of the defensive gap. But… he’s not.
Brian: I'm in the "irrationally positive about Austin Davis" camp as well.
Ace: You’re in company with John Beilein, whose positivity hopefully isn’t irrational, so there may be something to that. Between Teske and Davis I expect they’ll have a functional backup big.
Please be as good as you are large. [Fuller]
Alex: Kinda busy at work but I think it's easy for us to overrate Wilson's defense because of his physical tools but he still needs to add strength and didn't really protect the rim consistently as a four. He's better than most Michigan defenders, but Irvin and Rahkman split the team "best defense" award. He still has a ways to go too.
FWIW I'd take Wagner because individual offense is typically more valuable than individual defense and I do think Wagner will improve at least a little bit as a rebounder and defensive paint presence because I guarantee the NBA feedback revolved almost entirely around that.
Also I think Wagner is a much better ball-screen partner for Jaaron Simmons and that's not a knock on Wilson. Wagner's pick-and-pop to the wing is lethal, he does a decent job making himself available on the roll, and he can destroy switches in a variety of ways.
Ace: Agreed on all of that. Wilson playing center sometimes helped him become more aggressive—he hunted blocks more at the five—but he still had lapses, especially on the boards. Meanwhile, he’d need to become a more complete offensive player, while Wagner is pretty much set in that regard.
Alex: He has Frank Kaminsky-type potential on the off chance he actually stays for four years.
Ace: This is a great comp, and also shows why Michael Jordan was insane to pick Kaminsky two spots ahead of Myles Turner, but that’s another conversation.
With that, we’re probably done here.
Alex: Michael Jordan: not a great GM.
BiSB: Lavar Ball would be a better... /BiSB is beaten to death by everyone
Wagner couldn't even get on the floor in Michigan's biggest game of the season. Isn't that end of discussion?
If you're talking about the Oregon game, Mo had a terrible shooting night and was being blanketed by one of the few 5s in the country that could guard Mo at all 3 levels--Bell was the Pac-12 defensive player of year.
DJ was in there for defense and...*sighs*....rebounding. He also was hitting from 3 (4/8) while Mo was missing and the misses were ugly.
jackfl33-- That's what I was gonna say. Wagner wasn't even playing at the end of many of our biggest games. Wilson was all over the place on both ends of the floor. I guess the NBA scouts see it the way we do, and these "college is different" arguments seem highly speculative to me. I wish we had +/- comparisons.
Anyway, they're both very good, but Wilson is NBA good -- like Tayshaun Prince but longer.
At http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/michigan/2017.html.
Box Plus Minus (BPM):
Wilson: 9.4
Wagner: 7.2
In the offense/defense plus-minus states, Wagner shows slightly better on offense. Wilson MUCH better on defense.
this entire discussion is mind-boggling. The answer has to be Wilson.
Every single available piece of hard evidence points to Wilson in this argument by a landslide:
1) Large advantage in box plus-minus
2) HUGE advantage in defensive effectiveness. 87th percentile vs. 17th is a staggering difference. How that can be called "theoritical" when it was very obvious by watching both this year and charted be Synergy.
3) Beilein, who knows what he's doing, benched Wagner for much of the end of last season because he was so bad at defense. If Wagner were the answer here, that would not have happened.
4) Wilson is the consensus superior pro prospect, for all the reasons above. He's a better all-around player, he's has a higher ceiling. And with a new PG coming in that is very much a creator, Wilson would be a dream running the PnR and protecting the rim next year.
5) Playing time: Wilson played 75 percent of available minutes, Wagner only 59. This is like comparing a starting pitcher vs a reliever. If you're good, you need to help the team in high volume. Wagner had some bad calls against him, but he also makes some terrible decisions (ones that can be corrented but if he gambles less, he gets fewer steals - that's a tradeoff) and frankly, he was benched a lot at the end of the season because the coach thought the team was better without him.
The idea that Wagner might have more potential because he's 14 months younger (advanced by Brian) is a bit myopic. DJ missed a lot of time in HS and his first year at M due to injury, so it's easy to argue he's a year or two behind in development. He made freshman-type massive leap from his 2nd to 3rd year, so it's reasonable to think he's behind his age in development, which is good for his future prospects.
The talk as though Wagner was consistent on offense last year is laughable as well. In the last ten or so games of the season, his first half against Purdue and his second half against Louisville were sublime, but he was essentially non-existent outside of those two halves - and often was non-existent on the court. He had only 8 or fewer points in 7 of the last 11 games: crunch time against the best opponents. Wilson was in double figures in 7 of those 11. If we're projecting to next year, end of season trajectory has to matter.
I think we love Wagner so much for his passion and expressiveness that we have this crazy confirmation bias going on. It's fascinating that two bone-headed plays by Wilson sitck out so strongly in our minds (end of NW and box-out against Oregon) and we seem for forget how incredible he was for that stretch, but we cling to two brilliant halves by Wagner and forget how much he struggled the rest of that stretch.
Can't argue with a sample size of 1! Totally makes Wagner's game against Louisville meaningless. Makes sense.
Great comment. I'm with you that it's hilarious anyone would base this decision solely on which guy was in at the end of one game. Michigan went to Moe in the clutch much more than DJ in the previous two games, which were also the biggest games of the season.
with a different sample of....1?
Before my justification, let us be reminded that just over a year ago we thought Wilson was never going to see real playing time at Michigan and we were clinging to a handful of great plays from Wagner while he was stuck behind Ricky Doyle. #Beileindevelopment
The biggest advantage Wilson has in this discussion is his athleticism and defense it seems....yet I think that's more theoretical than actual. Wilson consistently struggled against wings that took him off the dribble as he couldn't stay in front of them. He does have the ability to block shots, but not in a way that jumps off the page. He is definitely athletic, but he still doesn't create his own shot very often (certainly not compared to Wagner). I think Wilson is the perfect glue-guy for a great team because he's versatile and pretty good at most things on the court...but he's not great at any one thing and defers most of the time.
Wagner is an alpha dog. He's the guy you build your offens around. He's your emotional leader. He's likely to go for 30 some nights. He's going to punish your 5-man who wants to stand in the paint and clog the middle. He gets his own shot.
Now let's see both return and find out how far this team can go when it combines talent, depth, and experience.
^^ Gets It ^^
And let me also state i had the same feeling on Wilson. I thought we would only see him play meaningful minutes if there were literally no bodies to throw out ahead of him, ala - Sheridan at QB.
He is definitely better than i thought he would be, but the Wagner vs. Wilson discussion needs to be put to rest.
Its like arguing who was better in their primes, Michael Jordan or Mateen Cleeves? (ok, horrible example, but you get my point).
This should not even be a discussion. It is Wagner by a wide mile. His skillset is superior to Wilsons. His main problem right now is emotion. Gets into foul trouble too easily.
Wilson needs to improve a hell of a lot more than Wagner. I do agree on his upside, but i am not sure we will ever see Wilson hit close to it.
NBA guys taking Wilson ahead of Wagner - WTF are they looking at? Sometimes it baffles me that they are making 6 figures to make decisions like Wilson > Wagner, Darko > anyone, Bowie > you know who etc.. (list goes on and on and on).
I am not sure I can agree with this, or really most of the comments above. Wilson was playing a really impressive inside-out game by tourney time and was playing with a patience and maturity to his offensive game that was very impressive. I actually think that Wilson's ceiling is higher as a college player. Wagner could be very good next year, but Wilson could be an All-American.
They are looking at the fact that Wagner is undersized, lacking athleticism, & missing strength & size for a post player. That, far more than emotion, is Wagners main problem. Even if he fixes his mental lapses he will always be a liability defensively in the NBA.. he is currently still a liability in college. Wilson is a prototypical 3 & D wing in the League and those guys are thriving right now. I think Wilson's game compares favorably to Nicolas Batum who just got a max deal for being a versatile defender with ideal size and a reliable outside shot.
I get the argument that Wagner has a higher ceiling as a college player but Wilson undeniably has a higher NBA ceiling and that is pretty universally agreed upon by everyone but you I guess.
Maybe I'm missing something, but how is this much of an argument for Wagner?
"Wagner was 81st percentile nationally on post-ups and 77th on isolations. On a much lower volume, Wilson was 51st and 77th, respectively."
Haven't we been told, repeatedly, that post-ups don't really matter? And that the 5 wide approach is what Michigan should and probably will be using this year?
with you man. I can't say I understand the reaction to this hypothetical. I say give me Wilson by a pretty wide margin.
Especially when they go on to talk about how Wagner is so much better than Wilson at creating his own shot. Maybe the "77th" for Wilson is a typo?
The facts I've seen here say the difference is night and day on defense, while Wagner has an advantage only on post-up offense.
Apparently they were tracking plus/minus at the NBA 5-on-5 and Wagner was the worst. Too bad we didn't see Wilson for comparison, although that may be better for our chances of keeping him for another year, which is most important.
They're both very likeable in addition to being great athletes.
Confirms my suspicion that Wilson is indeed better (though not by as much as I would have thought):
At http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/michigan/2017.html.
Box Plus Minus (BPM):
Wilson: 9.4
Wagner: 7.2
Wilson's potential is much greater, the positional flexibility to guard mutliple positions and length and leaping ability to be a shot blocker make Wilson a pretty easy choice for me. Wilson's biggest issue was confidence and aggression, you can work on those things, Wagner is more limited by a lack of physical upside. Wilson's ceiling is higher and I think even in their current states Wilson makes Michigan better next year because of the defensive upside another year of Donlon gives him.
And expect the same next year if they stay. Wilson needs to be more than a periodic 15-20 foot jump shooter to be a viable 5-12 year NBA player. He will get that opportunity if he comes back. If he goes pro, while he may be a decent defender/rebounder, his development may be muted. Wagner showed a ton of offensive tools this year, and if he comes back, I expect him to be able to take over 5-7 games with his 3 pointer and ability to drive. The team D covered up some of his defensive flaws this year, but if he really wants to play in the NBA, another B1G season will do him good.
Wilson is definitely the more talented player, but this comment about the leadership roles with Walton gone is one I hadn't yet considered, and is a very good point. Just another reason why we need both to get big wins next year.
He's a much tougher matchup offensively. You can't leave him alone on the perimeter, and you can't guard him with a 6'6" wing, because he'll shoot right over them. If you bring a big out to front him, he can blow by most guys his size to the basket, or dump to someone else in the cleared out middle. He ate Swanigan's lunch that way. As far as defense, Wilson had more blocks, but Wagner had more steals. And when you get to the tougher competition of the Big Ten, Wagner averaged more points and more rebounds in fewer minutes.
Or look at it this way..which pair would you rather have starting in the frontcourt, Wilson and Davis or Wagner and Davis?
But Wilson offers much more versatility to the team.
If DJ comes back he is a lottery pick.
I don't know if DJ will be a lottery pick, but he was just scratching the surface of his potential by the end of the season. He was the best player in the B1G tournament, along with Walton. You could see his confidence skyrocket and stay high game after game. Wagner was up and down right through the last game. When Wilson arrived, he belonged.
Wilson reminds of Dennis Rodman in the way he grew to superstar status from next to nothing right before our eyes.
If he improves at anywhere the same rate as he did last year, lottery status is assured IMO. His up side as a pro is going to be higher than just about anyone's regardless of age.
is so stiff; I think he may continue to struggle in one in three games. Wilson put it together so quickly last year; I think he could become an All-American, go for 40 against the right team.
Love 'em both. Praying they both come back.
THIS IS WHY I LOVE MGOBLOG
Such good analysis and back-and-forth
GO BLUE
It's all about being better than the other guy, the other team. The coaches compare players all the time..how else do you think they decide who plays and who doesn't?
They have until 11:59 tonight. I would imagine insiders already know.
My guess has been all along the same, Wagner stays, Wilson leaves. Hope I am wrong and they both return.
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