POST SPRING GAME Overreaction W-L Prediction Thread
Other than few hijinks in Italy we are about to go full submarine for many months. So based on what you drank today, have at it...
Last year I went into the fall saying it was a 3 game season - @MSU, @Iowa, @OSU. Overestimated MSU and underestimated Wiscy and Colorado. The difficulty of big road games still weight over this program even as Harbaugh has ascended.
This year, I say it's a 4 game season - FL (neutral site), @PSU, @WI, OSU. MSU will always be tough as we are their everything but with about 39 scholarship players looking like they will be available for that game the way things are going, I'm going to mark that down as a win, esp in AA.
Cincy, Air Force (tricky offense), @Purdue, @Debord (no longer chaos), Rutgers, Row The Boat (tm), @Durkin are the 7 other games. The chance for a slipup @MD as a trap game is possible right ahead of 2 monster games to end the season but I'm calling that 7-0 because this is Michigan fergodsakes. Add in Mork's Red Lockster, and I give it 8-0.
So what say you on the final 4 games now that Peters has been installed the 2:1 favorite for Heisman. Based on WHEN the game happens (UM SHOULD improve dramatically AS THE SEASON goes on, barring a key injury to a thin area due to expansive youth), I'd rank the games in this difficulty based on opponent, location and timing.
- OSU - because always OSU [if not Fickell]. At home but OSU is going to be top 5 most likely and possibly 1 loss-ish (trap games @Iowa, @Nebraska - I guess. They get PSU at home) , and their youngish team only adds 11 games of experience.
- @PSU (mid Oct) - chaos offense with stud RB, in very difficult environment
- @UW (right before OSU) - I don't know enough about what Wisconsin returns on offense but they should have a very good defense in a raucous environment. It's a slugest team built to matchup with what UM does.
- UF (neutral, very early but a team with many questions) - 2 youngish teams, should be a defensive slugfest. First one to 14 wins. 4 months of offensive planning by Harbaugh and Pep >>>> 400 months of planning by Nussmeier. Wildcard is if Zaire shows up on UF campus.
Discuss! (man)
April 16th, 2017 at 10:17 AM ^
This is not the year you should be expecting to beat Ohio State.
I think we should always expect to beat Ohio State in Ann Arbor as long as our team isn't terrible.
Otherwise, what the fuck is the point of college football's greatest rivalry?
Well, we got trucked last time our team wasn't terrible and we played in Ann Arbor so I'm not sure why I should go so far as to expect a victory.
I literally don't know. I feel Michigan is too vulnerable to injury this year, particularly on the OL. I think that there will come a time when we reload, and when it is just "next man up." This year is not that year. We are still too thin. It will take another couple solid years of recruiting to have depth everywhere.
So this means that I am in the "floor - ceiling" crowd. I think our "floor" is 3 losses, and our "ceiling" is no losses. Personally, in 2016, I think that if Speight had not been injured, we would have beat OSU, and probably Iowa too. We would certainly have lost to Alabama or Clemson. In 2017, if we stay very healthy, and a few guys develop, the sky is the limit.
So the factors this year:
- Does Speight stay healthy, and can he throw downfield? (Or does Peters overtake Speight, and give us a much better QB.)
- Does the OL stay healthy, with contributions from Ruis and one other Freshman?
- Do the safeties stay healthy? (because I wonder about our depth there.)
If we have solid QB play, the OL improves a bit over last year, and the rest of the team is healthy, I think we can beat FL and everyone in the Big 10. I just don't see a National Championship in the cards yet.
I'm actually not that worried about injuries at offensive line outside of Cole. I figure if Kugler goes down, then Ruiz steps in. If one of the guards goes down, then Kugler slides over and Ruiz steps in at center. Whoever wins out at right tackle will be marginally better than the next guy so Cole is the only one we really can't afford to lose.
You are correct. As I said above the d-line is special but can't take to many injuries especially on the inside but Mo hurst and Mone will dominate and their is no way Mone ways 305 as he looks just like Nauta. These guys will dominate and open things up for the lb's and Gary and Winovich. You will not run the ball on Michigan so if you do not have a great passing game....just forfeit now. 11-1 at worst. Watching Nebraska and they have no defense of couse we don't play them. Wiscy best player was watt and he is gone. The osu game will decide the big ten champion. 8-4 or 7-5 is psu record. I agree with someone else who said something about Michigan talent as I believe this is the most talented team ever until next year. Any one who sees this team with 4 or five regular season losses you most be watching some other team or you just don't know a thing about football. Also speight just went against the best d-line he will face this year.
Unbelievable negativity. I really don't understand why. I think we will be favored in every game this year and I also believe we should be. We will begin the season ranked behind osu and ped state and I have no idea why. OSU maybe but we beat psu by thirty nine points for a reason. OSU's secondary will be suspect this year and we match up well with them and I think our o-line will be better and no one will match our d-line. Long story short we have the most talent in the big ten period and should win all big ten games but will give them one loss. To me any more than one loss should not happen as I believe we have the # 1 defense in the big. Any one who wants to argue for osu. MIchigan has the best d-line . linebackers and secondary allthough unproven yet. Our o-line should avg. 330 or so across the board with the best being the lightest in bredeson. Our running backs will be way more explosive than smith with his 4.8 forty. Everyone is right though about Qb position because if he plays well we are more than good to go. I really think the negative nellies will be changing their tune after the Florida game as we will crush them again.
We will not be favored in every game. They've already shown the early lines and we're not favored against Wisconsin or OSU. Those two are favored in every game and don't play each other.
We may not be favored @PSU either.
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That is the dumbest thing I have ever read. Two teams favored right know that we play at the end of the year. Are you saying the lines do not change. Are they static?. I am confused. We may not be favored against Florida, but we have no control over that. Maybe you feel both wisconsin and osu will be undefeated when we play them. Penn state will have at least one loss when we play them and we will be undefeated. Whatever tell me why. We have more talent than everyone except maybe osu, but I am not agreeing with that. Whatever, we will see who is right.
Sure. Go position by position. We have a better D-line. We have better lb's. Secondary is unknown on both teams. I think our o-line will be better. I like our rb's better. I like speight more than jackson. They may have more depth but they are just as unproven as us. There strength is d-line where I feel we have two all-americans so yes I feel we have more starting talent than they do. They lost more than they want to admit but losing samuel, hooker, lattimore and con;ley will hurt them more than the player's we lost. They lost four more first round picks. There secondary will cost them big this year. Oh ya they lost there best linebacker so ya I think we have the most talent in the big ten.
April 16th, 2017 at 12:28 AM ^
I'm almost positive you're Fan in Fargo who I'm also also almost positive is not a real U-M fan, but I'll humor myself here.
There's absolutely no way Michigan has a better DL than OSU this year. Much like Michigan last year when they had insane depth, OSU will roll 9 deep. Michigan has Rashan Gary, who may yet be a monster, but he's done nothing to show anyone he's better than Nick Bosa, who put up 5 sacks last year as a true freshman exclusively playing on third down. Michigan and OSU have starting DLs than can grade out as As, but OSU has an entire second DL that's at least a B+.
Also don't see how you can say UM has the edge at LB. They're replacing 2/3 of the unit. They're a question mark at best. OSU lost Raekwon McMillan, but is replacing him by shifting starting OLB Chris Worley to the middle and replacing Worley with Dante Booker. Last year Booker started game 1 before missing the entire season to injury while his replacement became honorable mention all-B1G (Jerome Baker, who also returns).
Secondary is a total wash, I'll give you that. No idea how either unit shakes out.
OSU is bringing back 4/5 of a decent OL and Michigan is replacing 4/5 of an average to below average one. Don't really know how you can like U-M's OL more right now.
QB? C'mon. RBs? Don't really know. Chris Evans looks like he could be good. Mike Weber has a floor of already being good. Michigan has much more RB depth, though. WRs? Total toss-up. The best thing that could happen for OSU's WRs (and QB really) is Kevin Wilson running an offense that makes sense, unlike Ed Warriner. The starz are there at WR. TEs? Someone on U-M's roster should be better than Marcus Baugh, but Devin Asisi just left, so who knows?
when he is on here like this, it is an enjoyable and rational discussion.
i remember exactly one time when he deserved to be negged.
be michigan. be gracious when it's deserved.
I don't really disagree, and think Evans has the ability to be better than Weber. But Evans didn't start, couldn't break free of Michigan's rotation and wasn't on the field in the biggest moments, Smith was. Why was that the case? Too small? Too young? Can't pass block? Combo of all three? Weber put up 1,000 yads and handled 100 more carries than Evans. He's proven he can make it through a season as the guy. Evans hasn't. That was my point.
April 17th, 2017 at 12:19 PM ^
Pass-blocking and size (he's listed as 212 now, and I don't believe he was with 10lbs of his listed 200 from last years roster).
2nd to that would be that Smith, for all his shortcomings, could truck tackles in the backfield and make something out of nothing. If you have an inconsistent O-line, a great pass-blocker and tackle-breaker in the backfield (and a 3-year starter) can salvage some of the o-line inconsistencies.
You just can't take the sack. It's a momentum killer and destroys the playbook and 2nd-half adjustments you can make. Getting behind the sticks is the worst play in football (unless maybe you have a guy named Tom Brady).
2018 is by far the most brutal schedule of Harbaugh's first five years (2015-2019).
Road games in South Bend, East Lansing and Columbus. The two traditionally best teams in the West (Nebraska and Wisconsin) are both on our schedule as well as a home game vs. PSU.
If we make the playoff in 2018, we will be really good and have a chance to win it.
To me, 2019 still feels like the best shot.
April 15th, 2017 at 10:06 PM ^
ND will be breaking in a new coach by then.
April 17th, 2017 at 11:50 AM ^
plus or minus 1. Looking good in some areas, but shaky Oline, QB probably good, but not great, and serious lack of experience in the back 7. Probably not enough talent and experience to avoid losing at least one game we shouldn't.
And we lack the talent level at QB that wins championships. You need those to get to 11-1 or better. We were 10-2 last year, and have less talent this year, so it's hard to project any better than 9-3.
We have more talent this year. Lets check the o-line. Bredeson-freshman all american. Ruiz- Several experts say he is the best center to come along in the last ten years. Onwenu- he is like two lineman so lets see what he can do. Cole is an nfl talent- very versatile. So ya we have no talent on the o-line. Pick the Qb's in the big ten you would pick over speight and maybe peters. I agree with the bear it is not lack of talent we are inexperienced, but I feel we have more talent this year. I do agree that without watson, clemson doesn't sniff the playoffs and if n.c.state makes a chip shot field goal they dont make it so who knows.
on the Oline, and when they do, it's usualy out of desperation, as in our case, so being a freshman AA at that position is not as big a deal as it sounds. Bredeson was no Cam Robinson. Cole is capable, but nothing special, and Ruiz has yet to take a snap in a real game. Kugler and Kalis were supposed to be plug-and-play guys too, and we know how that went.
McSorely and Barrett are both better QBs than anybody we have, and those are the teams we have to beat to be anything this year.
bleh
I actually think it's a 6 game schedule. The above 4 games in addition to MSU (rivalry factor) and Indiana. Yes, I know that IU lost Wilson and they could totally go in the tank without him but his staff is still there. Debord isn't great but his offense last year finished 28th per S&P (Michigan finished 40th, IU under Wilson finished 67th). They also haven't beaten Michigan in 30 years so they are due. And did anyone see Michigan losing to Iowa last year?
With that said, I think Michigan's ceiling is 11-1. They could go unbeaten since they are more talented than 11 teams on the schedule, but Michigan has finished the regular season unbeaten, without a tie, just once in 69 years. This won't be the second time in 70 years. Keep in mind, the 2016 and 2017 classes were each top 6 classes but those players are either sophomores, redshirt freshmen or freshmen. The veterans on this team come from the 2014 and 2015 classes which ranked 20th and 37th. Also keep in mind that 2014 class rank is largely because of Peppers who is now gone. Still, it isn't an overly daunting schedule (pre-season FPI has Michigan's schedule as the 11th easiest among P5 teams). No reason they can't go 5-1 against the above 4 plus MSU and IU.
Worst case scenario, Michigan goes 1-5 in this stretch to finish 7-5. I don't think this is likely either because teams like Michigan have historically given Wisconsin major problems, MSU will be better but is still a 6-6 caliber team, IU could be much worse that last year, and Florida hasn't exactly set the world on fire under McElwain. The chance of Michigan winning just one of these and losing to OSU and PSU are very low. Still, with such a young team, it is possible.
Prediction: 9-3
Split the difference. Michigan loses to Florida to open up the year (very difficult game to open up the season for such a young team) beats MSU, avoids the upset at IU, falls at PSU, wins at Wisconsin, and loses to OSU.
April 17th, 2017 at 11:54 AM ^
We lose the 1st game to Florida and Peters goes unbeaten the rest of the way. 11-1.
11-2 and we beat OSU this season. Losses to Wiscy and PSU. The O line was OK today and showed some good and bad. There were a lot of blitzes and difficult stunts to block. I trust Greg Frey to work his magic. I have a feeling the running game will be really strong. The young guys will step up on D and we'll see little if any dropoff from last season. This is just my opinion, man.
Drevno seemed to be too much locked into a Stanford smash mouth style that couldn't work with the type of players UM had on the OL. Also, the play calling went into a shell the last 4 games and lost much of it's creativity and surprise.
With the new coaches, the offense should open up and Frey will add blocking schemes that favor the personel.
Hopefully, Peters gets a long look after FL and "may the best man win" once the B1G schedule starts.
Don't know what the other B1G teams lose, so I'll go with 10-2 as the floor. Peters & the OL being the 2 jokers that will determine the ceiling.
The chess match with JH, Brown, Pep, Frey vs Urban, Wilson, Shiano should be quite interesting.
April 15th, 2017 at 10:40 PM ^
and also playbook, was it just me or were others a bit surprised to a bunch of empty backfield 4 WR sets today?
Not surprised at all that this stuff would be in the playbook. But a bit surprised to see it used several times in the Spring game, which usually has a vanilla and limited playbook.
Maybe this means these will be base plays in the fall, and not just infrequently used plays.
If we lose to a crappy Florida team at a neutral site there is zero chance we beat Penn State in a night game White Out.
April 15th, 2017 at 10:18 PM ^
April 17th, 2017 at 12:30 PM ^
Sure, but ANY team can lose if their QB has a "bad day".
A lot of Speight doubters, and believe me he does have to improve in order for this team to get to a playoff spot.
But, he has a coach with a good history of coaching quarterbacks, a new O-coordinator, and a more talented receiving corps than last year.
I don't know about you guys, but I like our odds in every single game we play this year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see us win them all either.
April 15th, 2017 at 10:39 PM ^
Season could play out that way Penn State went in 2016. Not a great team in September. Decent team in October. Top 10 level play by November.
Michigan will probably a very different and much better team by mid-October than in early September. Could easilty see a loss to Florida in early September but a much improved team beating Penn State on October 21st.
Michigan has a lot more talent this year that Penn State had last year, but probably a lot more youth in the two deep.