Can UM Beat OSU with their Run Game?
So, as I was debating our chances in The Game this weekend, something occured to me: is it possible that we go all 2nd half of the Indiana game and just run, run, run the ball?
I have watched some OSU games this year and I still don't feel like I have a good grasp of their front seven. My impression is that this front doesn't have the best depth and a run-heavy approach (assuming the game is close) might pay big dividends in 4th quarter. Additionally, if Speight is less than 100 per cent, or if O'Korn is starting, a run heavy attack might mean a clean pocket and some juicy opportunites in the play-action game.
So my question for the board: how good is Ohio State's front seven, and could Michigan win with a rushing-heavy game plan?
November 23rd, 2016 at 8:56 AM ^
November 23rd, 2016 at 8:59 AM ^
November 23rd, 2016 at 9:03 AM ^
We have the better coach and last year taught him a lot. We will win but it will be very close.
November 23rd, 2016 at 9:06 AM ^
I think it's gonna come down to who is able to limit mental errors (penalties, turnovers) in this game. Our ground game can have success against this buckeye d, cause I think our Oline can get it done when they are focused. But if we're fighting 8-9 in the box every down, it'll be tough sledding. I'm really hoping we hit on 1 or 2 long balls that we missed in Iowa City, and soften things up for Deveon and Co. Oh....and a Jabril pick 6 as well!
November 23rd, 2016 at 9:28 AM ^
November 23rd, 2016 at 9:14 AM ^
I'm not sure I have a great grasp of what OSU's front seven can really do. MSU gashed them last week, and they've had times this year where they haven't looked all that good relative to their talent level. But if O'Korn is starting, I think our run game is going to be completely taken out of the equation until he proves he can throw the ball against OSU's secondary.
Assuming O'Korn starts, I wouldn't doubt against OSU putting 8-9 guys in the box and daring O'Korn to beat them through the air. They're going to blitz like hell until he proves he can handle the pressure and get some plays off.
So to answer your question, the only way I think our run game can win it for us is if O'Korn proves he can stand tall in the pocket and make some throws against their secondary to at least keep their defense honest. Which means the run game would start to emerge late in the second half where we'd end up grinding out a really close win.
If he can't, expect to see 8-9 man boxes and OSU blitzes all day.
November 23rd, 2016 at 9:32 AM ^
correct.
Against a good D, Michigan's offense is premised on being able to hit some longer throws. OSU will make O'Korn (or even a limited Speight) prove that he can do that.
If M does not hit some longer throws, there will be too many three and outs and OSU can probably wear down M's D.
O'Korn could not do this against IU.
Speight had been able to hit the longer passes for several weeks running, but could not do it at Iowa.
If O'Korn/Speight can't hit several 20+ yeard throws, then M's offense will look a lot like it looked at Iowa.
Given OSU's excellent corners, M will have to use the tights ends and slot receiver position a lot.
Speight can probably make the pre- and post-snap reads/decisions that can make an overly aggressive OSU D pay. Not sure if O'Korn can do this. They barely even asked O'Korn to make pre-snap adjustment against IU.
November 23rd, 2016 at 9:17 AM ^
November 23rd, 2016 at 9:19 AM ^
http://www.detroitnews.com/story/sports/college/university-michigan/201…
November 23rd, 2016 at 9:20 AM ^
IT GON RAIN!!
November 23rd, 2016 at 9:19 AM ^
It's going to come down to what team gets dinged by a dumb targeting call by a dumb official and has one of their best defensive players booted.
November 23rd, 2016 at 9:27 AM ^
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November 23rd, 2016 at 9:23 AM ^
and shut down OSU's offense, yes.
November 23rd, 2016 at 9:27 AM ^
November 23rd, 2016 at 9:31 AM ^
Unleash the Pepcat.
November 23rd, 2016 at 11:25 AM ^
Okay, just did that and it's 2nd and six yards to go. Now what?
With the exception of a couple big plays all year, it hasn't been all that effective - especially against a stacked box.
November 23rd, 2016 at 10:14 AM ^
I could see it, but like many others have written, there will have to be the occasional play made in the passing game. Even last year when OSU gashed the middle of Michigan's DL, Barrett hit on a couple big pass plays (was 9-15 on the day for 113 yards) as well.
Michigan's going to have to do a lot more in the play-calling than they did last week to try to set up some of these runs. The lack of jet sweeps and even motions allowed IU's interior DL to pursue more aggressively and the ends collapsed on interior runs and when reading pass rushed upfield without worry of a misdirection or screen (except for O'Korn's first pass). If the game plan is to win with Speight or O'Korn throwing in the neighborhood of 15-19 passes, they're going to need to use the outside running game to set up the inside and vice versa.
And when a downfield throw, either off a 5 step drop or PA is open, gotta hit it. The PA pass play that Griese and Tuman lived off of can exploit some things OSU does defensively. We may see Butt and Asiasi targeted more Saturday than any previous game this year.
November 23rd, 2016 at 11:46 AM ^
My guess is that M would want to put together an optimal game plan that aims for 250 yards of passing yardage.
IOW, the best offensive game plan would look more or less like the first half against MSU.
This assumes a healthy enough Speight to excute such a game plan, of course.
But a game plan with just 15 passes probably reduces M's win probability a lot.
November 23rd, 2016 at 1:56 PM ^
No, not "an occasional pass play" but rather an occcassional "play" made in the passing game (big play of 20+ yards). Plus, this was in response to the OP, regarding how to win by relying more heavily on the running game.
That's a great guess you had that Michigan's coaching staff would love it if they could get 250+ in the passing game, but I wonder what their confidence level is in getting that. If a dinged up Speight is under center, I could see the staff trying to limit throws to limit how much he may get hit. If it's O'Korn, and last week wasn't part of a scheme of some sort, I could see where the passing game would be limited, and as I wrote earlier, use some elements of the running game to set up other running plays rather than using the passing game.
And call me crazy, but for whatever reason, I have a good feeling about Saturday!
November 25th, 2016 at 5:13 PM ^
I'll answer anyway.
I think that the optimal game plan for Michigan's 2016 offense against OSU's 2016 defense does have to be built around 250 passing yards. Anything less gives OSU the advantage.
It is not just that Harbaugh would love to get 250 passing yards. It is that this sort of game plan/play calling is really what they must target. it is the best (maybe only) game plan that gives M a really good chance of winning.
This will require a lot more than just hiitting an occassional pass.
A heathly Speight is capable of passing 28 or so times for 250+ yards.
And even if O'Korn starts (or plays a lot of the game), M is going to have to still pass just as much (though the exact pass play calls might be different).
In fact, if O'Korn starts, OSU will stack the box even more than if Speight starts, thus making it even more unlikely that M can move the ball enough by mostly running.
Harbaugh needs to just make his game plan, call the right plays, and expect his QB to execute.
IOW Gotta move the ball through the air a LOT no matter who starts. Not gonna win by having O'Korn (or Speight) hand the ball off 80% of the time. Build the game plan around forcing OSU's D to respect the passing game. This is the only way that Deveon, Evans and crew will find big chunks of yardage on the ground.
November 23rd, 2016 at 10:21 AM ^
How about..10ish? And how about 5 for Higdon?
November 23rd, 2016 at 8:57 PM ^
This is an excellent point; there are times where I wish they were a bit more "stubborn" so to speak with guys.
November 23rd, 2016 at 10:17 AM ^
All I know is that if we do not run effectively, we're fucked.
November 23rd, 2016 at 10:34 AM ^
I think we will be able to run the ball fairly well. Like others have said OSU's run d and IU's are very comparable, and I think it is safe to say we will get at least slightly better QB play this week whether from Speight or O'Korn in better weather and in his second start. The key is we have to contain them on defense, because even if we run the ball farily well, that doesn't equate to a bunch of points. Just look at the MSU game.
We win this game by stopping the run on D and limiting big plays; controlling field position on special teams; running the ball well enough to set up a couple long balls and also to control field position, and not turning the ball over.
The worst thing that can happen in this game is OSU being able to run the ball on us. That happens and I do not see how we win.
November 23rd, 2016 at 10:44 AM ^
Control the line, both sides of the ball. Game.
November 23rd, 2016 at 11:00 AM ^
Never say never. Tim Biakabutuka, 95
November 23rd, 2016 at 11:02 AM ^
I suppose, but that OSU team was coached by John Cooper, who had a great habit of shitting the bed almost every single year against Michigan. They always came in the "better team," and every year save for two, they lost.
Meyer =/= Cooper
November 23rd, 2016 at 11:28 AM ^
I don't agree there. '88-'92 UM was the better team and in some cases easily the better team.
'93-'96. You could probably give the edge to OSU, although I'd say most of those UM teams significantly underacheived.
'97 - pretty even.
'98 - OSU had the better team.
'99 and '00 - UM had the better team.
November 23rd, 2016 at 11:36 AM ^
"Could probably give the edge to OSU" in the mid-90s?
In 95-96 they went 22-1 against everyone not named Michigan.
Yes we underachieved those two seasons, but even if we played closer to where we should have those were monster OSU teams.
November 23rd, 2016 at 11:39 AM ^
While no one in their right minds expected 313 yards, that wasn't entirely out of nowhere. He was having a great year going into The Game, and was running behind a terrific line.
I'm not sure what the parallel would be here.
November 23rd, 2016 at 11:01 AM ^
November 23rd, 2016 at 11:09 AM ^
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November 23rd, 2016 at 11:13 AM ^
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November 23rd, 2016 at 11:15 AM ^
I hope the fact that we run a pro style can mitigate some of the struggles we've seen earlier in the year, but if okorn is starting then they may just stack the box and make it very difficult to run the ball. I do not expect us to win with the run game.
November 23rd, 2016 at 11:24 AM ^
November 23rd, 2016 at 11:28 AM ^
Im hoping to see more of Peppers lined up in the slot or at tailback behind an actual QB this game. Pepcat has become a little too predictable and Im hoping we can find some ways to get him in space vs a linebacker. To essentially do what OSU will attempt on us all game with Samuels.
November 23rd, 2016 at 11:59 AM ^
No.
Midfield crossing patterns will win this game, if we can get it done. Jake Butt FTW. If he's not a big part of the game, we lose.
November 23rd, 2016 at 1:47 PM ^
It could happen if Evans or Smith plays a career game.
November 23rd, 2016 at 2:39 PM ^
I don't think so. We can't win this game without challenging Ohio State's secondary. Offensively, I think the key to this game is Jake Butt. If Butt has a good game, we'll win. If he doesn't, we'll lose.
November 23rd, 2016 at 10:19 PM ^
All we need is 14 points to win, so whatever it takes...I absolutely think we can run the ball and win....No turnovers No missed FGs No roughing the punter penalties ....GoBlue!