Softball postseason thoughts?
As a long time softball fan going back almost to Hutchs beginnings, Michigan softball postseason as always been one of my favorite times of the year. We have a elite program here that is a consistent big time winner.
We have a GREAT chance to get back to the championship game more than likely against Florida and win this time.
Couple of weeks ago I posted that there were two teams Id like to avoid before the WCWS. Ky and UCLA..Ky with its dominant pitching and UCLA with its dominant power. Im thinking Super Regional opponent here. At that time Ky looked out of the picture as they were ranked RPI wise at #10 thus not playing us, and UCLA was 15 which is who we will prob face.
Well that totally reversed..KY dropped to #16 while UCLA rose to 14..Right now it probably comes down to these possible super regional opponent,. #13 Baylor, #14 UCLA #15 LSU and #16 KY..one of these teams is our probable opponents.....Ill be watching as many games as I can this weekend..I get BIG, SEC.PAC12 networks and the BIG 12 Fox network so I will get to watch alot of these teams...Im hoping for Baylor as our best path to the WCWS..
Thoughts?
Let the Post Season Begin!
out to look. Want to see us win the B1G tourney first, which they should do. Then let's host a regional and get through that hopefully without having to play an extra games.
This team can definitely hit, but pitching does concern me a little bit. Megan and Sara are both very good, but against the top teams just not as dominate. So my feeling would rather see us face better pitching teams and less dominate hitting teams.
And Sara is the perfect pitcher to have opposite her. Contact pitcher that has been to the World Series before even prior to last year.
I'm focused on this B1G Tournament. No sense of looking ahead.
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2015 Wagner > 2016 Driesenga
2016 Betsa > 2015 Betsa
Not according to her ERA. And you play better teams in the postseason than our B1G schedule.
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Well, put me in the same camp. I don't think you can win a national championship without a dominant pitcher. The amount of runs that Betsa has given up this year says she is not it. Her high ball was really effective last year, but it is not as effective this year. And because of that she is walking more batters. I love this team, but if we face a team with a shutdown pitcher, we could be in trouble.
I prefer cautious optimism. The teams Michigan faces from here on out will be much tougher than our B1G schedule. We have the talent to do it but one off weekend for our hitters will doom us this postseason.
when fans saying we can't look ahead because the team hasn't made it there yet as if they're on the team. It doesn't affect the team at all. If you think it does, you need help.
They are shutting down not very good B1G teams. It will be a lot different in Regionals, Super and WCWS the level of hitters they will face.
as long as she isn't walking or hitting people. She's leading the narion in Ks per 7 innings among the leaders for fews hits per 7 innings,
We already did beat UCLA this year in Los Angeles, as well as last year in the WCWS, so they don't scare me as much as some of the SEC teams. But honestly, no team really scares me except for Florida.
we can outslug UCLA but in a 3 game series KY has 2 very very good pitchers..If those are the 2 options Id pick UCLA at home...Florida is well Florida..We didnt pitch Betsa or Driesenga when we played them earlier this year and I think that was a good call by Hutch..While they faced Betsa last year that was along time ago and it was probably best to not give them any at bats in that reg season game..every little edge helps when you are trying to beat Florida but they can be beat
We faced Barnhill but next two times will be Gourley and Ocasio.
Both teams started their n°3 pitchers. Saving it all for the NCAA's.
That's all and well, but it's worrisome that their #3 pitcher was able to shut out our hitters. We didn't score a run.
I think our seed is pretty much decided unless Florida loses to a bad a team.
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Do you think that losing in the finals of the Big Ten tournament in a close game to a Minnesota or Nebraska type team would drop our ranking?
I know we're very unlikely to get the #1 seed, but how far could we fall if we lost this weekend?
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we are locked into the #2 national seed win or lose the BIG..If we win it and Florida loses a game we MIGHT get the #1
We already have wins over Oklahoma, UCLA, Missouri 2 agaisnt Florida St all top 10 teams..2 of 4 losses against top 10 UW and UF..Minny is ranked and Neb #32 so no slouches..we get the #2 win or lose
I doubt Michigan drops even if they lose to Indiana. The worst Michigan can be after this weekend is 43-5.
There is zero chance Michigan passes Florida: remember that Florida wins head-to-head, so even if Michigan moves to #1 in RPI and Florida drops to #2--and I don't think that's even possible--Florida would certainly get the #1 national seed based on that head-to-head win in February.
Michigan's worst-case scenario probably involves Alabama beating Florida for the SEC championship, but even then a #3 seed is less likely than a #2 for Michigan. I don't give Oklahoma or Oregon (and certainly not James Madison) any chance at all of passing Michigan.
So Michigan is right where we want them to be: a #2 or (much less likely) a #3 national seed. There really isn't that much difference between the two; either way it sets up a possible rematch for the championship.
I think the cake is already baked except for the bubble teams.
It was rough at the beginning. Expected as she had a back injury she was working through.
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Betsa is having a pretty similar year to 2015. Her ERA is up some but otherwise the numbers are similar.
2015 Wagner: 1.75 ERA, 0.212 AVG, 0.783 SO/IP, 0.122 BB/IP
2016 Driesenga: 2.26 ERA, 0.229 AVG, 0.760 SO/IP, 0.314 BB/IP
The second pitcher is what will take us deep in the postseason. Driesenga is experienced (2013 WCWS) but she isn't as talented as Wagner was. The 1-2 punch of Betsa-Wagner in 2015 looks much stronger than the 2016 Betsa-Driesenga.
After the Big Ten tournament this weekend, which is pretty much meaningless (other than a chance to win a nice trophy) for Michigan, they will need to get through the regional before worrying about the super-regional matchup.
My bracketology says: #1 Michigan (#2 overall seed) v #4 Illinois-Chicago; #2 Notre Dame v #3 Arizona State.
like your regional is a pretty good pick..I get the whole dont get ahead of yourself thing but I just dont see this team losing in a home regional..
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I get the championship thing, although in my mind Michigan has already won the Big Ten championship and this is just a tournament (like basketball, where winning the regular season is the true goal and winning the tournament is a nice bonus).
However, the one thing I hope to see this weekend is a strong outing on Saturday from Sara Driesenga. The true test in this tournament will be if Michigan wins the semifinal Saturday at 3:30 and has to turn around immediately and play for the championship at 6:00. Obviously, I am assuming Hutchins will want to split the starting duties for the semi and the final.
At some point, to win the NCAAs, there is a chance that Michigan will need to win back-to-back games, or at least 2 games in one day. To do that, Michigan will need to ensure that it has true pitching depth, and can get 5-7 good innings out of both of its starters.
I also wouldn't mind seeing more of Tera Blanco out of the bullpen, like we saw against Rutgers last weekend.
so I don't think it will be Arizona St but you could be right on the other two.
Im watching S Carolina vs Mizzou in the SEC tournament..SC was down 4-0 and down to its last strike and hit a Grand Slam to tie the game....let the post season begin
update: SC gets a 3 run homer in the 8th to win 7-4
up next RPI #17 Texas AM vs #15 LSU (both potential super reg opponents)
The most recent loss (to Nebraska) cannot be blamed on pitching, as it was a 1-0 defeat. That was on the batters, but if I recall correctly, it was a night with very high winds blowing towards the plate that made it difficult to hit.
The Northwestern loss (in which we gave up 13 runs) is much more concerning, but it also happened longer ago.
Our pitching is better mainly becasue we aren't walking nearly as many batters (NW excepted) and that's independent of the quality of the competition.
We're the # 2 national seed even if Florida loses the first game IMO.
The pitching has settled down since the beginning of th big ten slate.
True, but the level of competition has also gone down. B1G softball is nothing to write home about. Betsa has looked great, even better than last year this time and Driesenga looks great as well. But Regionals will tell the true tale as it'll be the 1st real competition the team's had in 2 months.
This is true. Especially because we didn't play Minnesota, the one other truly strong team in the Big Ten.
But Nebraska and Ohio State, and maybe Northwestern, are all teams that will be in the tournament/ the caliber of 3-4 seeds in the regionals.
Regionals won't be a huge upgrade from the Big Ten, we should win it easily; the true test will come in the Super Regionals and beyond.
On a different note, Michigan almost sweeps the B1G awards in softball this year. Only thing we didn't win is Freshman of the Year.
B1G Player of the Year: Sierra Romero (2nd in history to win 3 times with 2013 & 2014, I still say she was robbed last year)
B1G Pitcher of the Year: Megan Betsa
B1G Coach of the Year: Carol Hutchins
1st Team All-B1G Honorees: Sierra Romero, Sierra Lawrence, Kelsey Susalla, Megan Betsa
2nd Team All B1G Honorees: Tera Blanco, Sara Driesenga, Aidan Falk, Lindsey Montemarano
bat has been quiet though we really need her hitting to reemerge
also #15 LSU scores 3 in the bottom of 7th to beat #17 Texas AM 5-4 so this means tommorows LSU vs KY could quite possibly be the #15 seed and could end up in Ann Arbor IF we advance to supers..Geaux Tigers. ..KY swept LSU in 3 consecutive shut outs IN Baton Rouge pretty much unheard of...Id rather play LSU than KY if it gets that far
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