OT: Football Study Hall asks: Has the window closed for Michigan State?
Came across an interesting article (link) that discusses Michigan State's shortcomings against Alabama and why this might be a bigger schematic problem. Apparently, the B1G's teams don't yet have spread passing attacks capable of exploiting this.
I'm not very knowledgable about schematic stuff, but I think it really boils down to Michigan State having a down year in their secondary talent (the article's author disagrees).
January 7th, 2016 at 6:36 PM ^
... interesting, but I think the reasoning is pretty narrow. it focuses on defensive scheme vs. talent and attrition. It also uses Alabama as the example of why the window is closing. Alabama curb stomps a lot of teams, so if that is your bar, then yes, your window is closed. While I like the premise of the article and hope it to be true, I found the arguments to be shallow.
January 7th, 2016 at 7:34 PM ^
The article did mention Nebraska throwing for 320 yards against them.
Didn't mention Vernon Adams throwing for 300 yards on them with a broken finger on his throwing hand.
Didn't mention Western Michigan throwing for 365 yards on them.
Didn't mention Central Michigan throwing for 285 yards on them.
Didn't mention Indiana throwing for 308 yards on only 37 passes.
That's pretty much every team that really used a spread passing game against MSU torched them. Not just Alabama.
January 9th, 2016 at 3:58 AM ^
ONLY 37 passes by Indiana? 37 is quite a few attempts...
January 7th, 2016 at 6:36 PM ^
But fuck 'em anyway.
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January 7th, 2016 at 6:44 PM ^
+1 for second paragraph. Riveting stuff.
January 7th, 2016 at 8:48 PM ^
Sparty's window started closing the day Michigan hired Jim Harbaugh. It officially closed against Bama. This was the best chance they were ever going to have to win a National Championship but they proved they didn't have the personnel.
Sparty's "signature wins:"
Oregon: not the "Oregon" of the last few years.
The Sparty Fluke.
OSU: spent so much time and energy on their Michigan Obsession that they couldn't even muster their "B" game against Sparty.
Iowa: benefited from a division that was so weak, their "signature win" was against non-conference foe Pitt.
Sparty benefited the most by eight years of Michigan self-destruction. They have never proven the can be truly elite when Michigan is. Sparty's losses will combine with Michigan's return to greatness to produce the 9-3 or 8-4 record they should have had this year.
Then, the couches will burn and the invective will fly in EL.
January 7th, 2016 at 9:52 PM ^
a certainty that they could beat MSU with a simplified run game while saving the good stuff for Michigan (on a very rainy day), that killed Meyer in that game.
January 7th, 2016 at 10:50 PM ^
January 8th, 2016 at 11:19 AM ^
nftxt.
January 7th, 2016 at 6:36 PM ^
January 7th, 2016 at 6:59 PM ^
Clemson has the talent to spread them out as well, I think Clemson has a better shot against Alabama than most people realize
January 7th, 2016 at 7:32 PM ^
January 7th, 2016 at 6:37 PM ^
The window was never open.
January 7th, 2016 at 6:39 PM ^
Mike Dantoni will be pleased with this fresh batch of disrespek
January 7th, 2016 at 6:40 PM ^
Windows closing + MSU obligatory fast food jokes =
January 7th, 2016 at 6:43 PM ^
January 7th, 2016 at 6:44 PM ^
January 7th, 2016 at 6:46 PM ^
January 7th, 2016 at 7:25 PM ^
Im pretty sure this has been said for eight straight years now.
MSU isn't going anywhere so long as Dantonio is there.
January 7th, 2016 at 7:47 PM ^
January 7th, 2016 at 8:35 PM ^
Michigan State regularly played UM close when the Spartans were fairly mediocre and Michigan was a perennial top ten team. The fans who think Michigan is going to begin to dominate MSU are going to be really disappointed when it doesn't happen, regardless of how much better Michigan gets over the next few years.
January 7th, 2016 at 10:22 PM ^
January 8th, 2016 at 8:11 AM ^
but that was when their season hinged on beating Michigan. They knew they were not going to a bowl and not winning any Championships. They did really throw their heart and soul into those games and walk away with a win now and then. Thanks also to their timekeeper and no calls. And Michigan really didn't care about State back then. I hated when we would lay an egg and lose to them.
January 8th, 2016 at 11:23 AM ^
Losing to your rival every year in and out wears thin on the fan base, Just ask Lloyd Carr, Rich Rod, and Brady Hoke. They have first hand experience in that matter...
January 8th, 2016 at 11:49 AM ^
It's all relative.
I do not think that MSU is going back to what they were from the 70s until 2009. Potentially ever. Just a good Michigan cannot do that to them and Dantonio is too good to let that happen (plus, they are recruiting much better now).
That said, MSU's window to regularly win 10 or 11 regular season games without much difficulty is closing.
I don't think MSU is going to go back to the 5-7 wins of old, but I also don't think they will stay at the 10-11 wins of late.
I forsee MSU winning about 9 games most regular seasons, with a few 8 wins and a few 10 wins sprinkled in there. The last few years they have been a perennial top 10 team. I think that window has closed, but they will still be ranked at the end of almost every regular season. And they still will win a few more games against Harbaugh, just pray to God that isn't in the next two years.
January 7th, 2016 at 6:49 PM ^
Its about good execution in the passing game. After all, Stanford burned them too. Sparty counts on college offenses being unable to consistently execute good passing plays. They practically beg opposing offenses to do certain things. During the regular season, this often works because college teams can't afford to completely focus on doing those things when there is a new opponent every week. But during bowl season, teams have a lot of prep time and exceptional focus.
January 7th, 2016 at 6:53 PM ^
A very good read. I don't agree the window is closing, but do agree that spread to pass teams (Baylor, Oregon, OSU, Indiana, etc.) have given them plenty of trouble. After last year's MSU-OSU game, there was another great article that made similar points. It showed how they used run action to get 1v1's against corners or safeties that resulted in quite a few long touchdown passes.
I would have figured Meyer would have remembered the game plan from the prior year, but who knows what they were thinking this year.
January 7th, 2016 at 7:27 PM ^
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January 7th, 2016 at 7:57 PM ^
They were taking 10-15 yard slants to the house last year. Certainly worth attempting them, rather than bashing your quarterbacks head into a stacked box 12 times in a row. MSU managed to complete a 36 yard pass with their backup qb. It's not like it was impossible and not worth an attempt.
January 7th, 2016 at 9:15 PM ^
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January 7th, 2016 at 6:58 PM ^
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January 7th, 2016 at 7:20 PM ^
Since that sam linebacker is going to charge at the line of scrimmage on any run action from the offense, that leaves the slot receiver with a two-way go and a lot of space to work against that free safety. Essentially, that safety is being asked to play man coverage 10 yards off the receiver. Even for a good athlete like Montae Nicholson or Demetrious Cox that's exceptionally hard.
I think this strategy above was more of the key in that game for Alabama. A mainly power offense that could do this and leave in a blocking TE and RB to buy a quarteback some time for the WR in the slot to work could give Michigan State fits. Harbaugh's offense - at least from what I remember - does this and usually leaves a TE in to make the reception.
January 8th, 2016 at 7:42 AM ^
Based on what you're saying here, I think you view this is a viable strategy for Michigan?
January 7th, 2016 at 7:26 PM ^
Ohio State will always be good, Penn State will get better. Maryland will ride under Durkin. We already know Harbaugh will turn Michigan into a perennial power regardless of what other schools do. State was allowed to rise thanks to its unholy alliance with Tressel, a down Michigan, bad Penn State and a weak rest of the Big Ten. The perfect storm for State to succeed. Those days are fading.
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January 8th, 2016 at 11:53 AM ^
Not to mention they missed playing Ohio State in a few of those regular seasons in the early Dantonio years (2009-2010). Those surely would've been extra losses.
January 7th, 2016 at 7:34 PM ^
4 things:
1) Good coaching. No doubt about it. All the respect to Dantonio and staff.
2) Solid identification of lower ranked talent. This has been a combination of scouting and luck. As we've seen, they can't always make two star DB recruits into first round draft picks.
3) Us being bad. Very helpful when your biggest rival is down and represents a high win probability
4) In-game luck. They've won a ton of close games. Many on 50 50 type plays near the end. I'm not discounting their very solid run (we had similar luck in the late Carr years) just saying they could have 5-8 more losses pinned onto them in the last 3 or 4 years if balls bounced a little differently for them.
Is their window closed?
Yeah. It is. They need a QB and an O-line and DBs and they need to get them from a collection of recruits who were not elite. They will get the benefit of their current class in a couple years, but by then they will no longer see elite as a team. Of the 4 items listed above, all but #1 are a serious risk of disappearing. The B1G East now belongs to M and OSU with two pretenders and 3 also rans. Go Blue.
January 8th, 2016 at 7:37 AM ^
Not only do I think you identified all the salient factors, I think you were fair in how you weighted them. I think the Michigan fanbase tends to overrate the importance of Michigan not being good. While it has helped State, it's not the most important reason they've done so well.
January 7th, 2016 at 7:42 PM ^
As far as winning a national title, I'd say yeah. If they were gonna win one, this would have been the season. With Michigan getting back to form, it will be increasingly difficult as the years go by for MSU to maintain their trend upward. They're about to take a step back next season with the loss of Cook and their best wideout. Their defense should be on par with this past season's D with question marks in the secondary. If they aren't mindful, the'yll be looking at a 5-6 loss season with possible losses against Notre Lame, Wisconsin, NU, MICHIGAN, and the suckeyes which could hurt them as far as recruiting goes.
I think they go 8-4 this upcoming season though and remain competitive. I just don't think they'll be competitive enough for playoff contention again any time soon.
January 7th, 2016 at 7:59 PM ^
MSU has received good qb play that, at times, rose to very good. It is not coincidence that UM's solo victory against both MSU and OSU came when OSU had a freshman slinger and no real coach.
Dantonio has instilled a culture of playing mean to the point where they sometimes cross the line but all in all, his players have a belief they will win.
Undoubtedly, they know they were outmatched vs. Bama. Hell, who isn't in a normal year? I don't think that signals the end of their greatest run post Duiffy.
All successful teams, as long as the head man stays there, should be given benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise. If we win 2 in a row they might get nervous. Three in a row, then it's clear mindset, along with talent level has diminished greatly.
January 7th, 2016 at 8:55 PM ^
January 7th, 2016 at 9:09 PM ^
I probably hate them as much as you.
But they've kicked our ass for the better part of a decade now.
I'll feel better talking shit about them when we beat them, and finish better than third in our division.
January 7th, 2016 at 10:18 PM ^
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January 7th, 2016 at 10:51 PM ^
January 7th, 2016 at 9:21 PM ^
January 7th, 2016 at 9:27 PM ^
Next year might be a 2012-ish kind of year for them. A ton to replace on both sides of the ball, but better recruiting and talent will still net them at least 8-9 wins. I'd bet they'll reload for another good run in 2017 and the couple years following.
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January 7th, 2016 at 11:10 PM ^
January 7th, 2016 at 11:37 PM ^
January 8th, 2016 at 12:17 AM ^
Not only is the window closing for State, but also metal bars are being installed.
January 8th, 2016 at 3:42 AM ^
I have no doubt that as long as Mork is there State will remain competitive. But I do doubt that they will be winning many B1G titles.
I dont think that scheme was really States downfall against Bama. It was more a lack of talent in the secondary. We knew all year long thier secondary sucked. And they sucked against more than just spread to pass teams.
January 8th, 2016 at 4:09 AM ^
Thats what happens when a 8-4 level team plays Alabama.
They get curbstomped.