Projecting the 2016 Football Class - V4.0
Updating projections as we go along and get material new info and changes. This will be version 4; future updates will happen on an as needed basis.
- V3.0 (12/9)
- V2.0 (11/25)
- Way too Early Edition (6/03)
Working framework
- Lorenz indicated Michigan has now signaled they have 27 spots (not 28 as we all assumed)
- 23 current commits.
- Various peeps with premium access say we will grayshirt here or there, so I made some projections with that in mind. I grayshirted 1 player. That knocked down class to 22* (*grayshirt is still part of class but doesnt count against scholarship until January).
- We will have attrition from our current recruits, so I took best guesses and knocked out 2 from here. That knocked current class down to 20.
Changes since last update
- RB Kareem Walker went from "projected in class" to "committment".
- LB Devin Bush Jr. went from "projected in class" to "committment".
- WR Nate Johnson came out of nowhere to "committment".
- LB David Reese went from "likely decommittment" to "he gone".
- TE Chase Allen was offered and has been immediately moved to "projected in class".
- RB Kingston Davis and WR/DB (??) Ahmir Mitchell are signed and in the class, EE.
Section 1 deals with current commits - who is staying and who is going. And who is going to open a spot by grayshirting. I listed us with 20 immediate scholarships and 1 grayshirt - with 2 decommits. Will discuss below chart.
STAYING | GOING | |||||
Pos | Name | Ntl Rnk | Pos | Name | Ntl Rnk | |
OL | Ben Bredeson | 37 | Maybe to Likely? | |||
RB | Kareem Walker | 38 | ATH | Kiante Enis | 647 | |
QB | Brandon Peters | 62 | DT | Rashad Weaver | >1000 | |
DL | Jordan Elliott | 95 | ||||
OL | Michael Onwenu | 109 | ||||
WR | Ahmir Mitchell | 130 | ||||
OL | Devery Hamilton | 235 | ||||
LB | Devin Bush Jr | 238 | ||||
WR | Brad Hawkins | 281 | ||||
DL | Ron Johnson | 292 | ||||
OL | Erik Swenson | 293 | ||||
DL | Carlo Kemp | 314 | ||||
ATH | Chris Evans | 327 | ||||
WR | Nate Johnson | 529 | ||||
CB | Sir Patrick Scott | 667 | ||||
RB | Kingston Davis | 889 | ||||
S / LB | Devin Gil | 994 | ||||
TE | Sean McKeon | >1000 | .. | |||
CB | Antwaine Richardson | >1000 | ||||
LB | Dytarious Johnson | >1000 | ||||
Grayshirt | ||||||
S | Josh Metellus | >1000 |
BOLD = locked in, signed
Comments
- David Reese was an obvious projected decommit and that finally happened; he is set to announced tomorrow and it looks like Florida which sets up years of comparisons between him and Bush. That said Bush is important on a broader scale in terms of striking into the heart of FL and getting a top 250 type recruit - will increase talk from locals about coming north to Michigan. Also a top end 2017 CB prospect plays at Flanagan. But I digress.
- The other 2 decommits could come from just about any players ranked below 600, so I picked 2. I feel Kiante Enis (who noted in a story a few weeks back was not getting much contact from UM) is even more likely to decommit now than last 2 recaps as he had an official to Indiana this past weekend, while fellow Indiana types came up to Michigan on visits. I continue to have Rashad Weaver as the other - he visited Temple a few weeks ago.
- Antwaine Richardon visited last week and will not be EE but seems in the class no matter what. I cant imagine Jim kicking out Gil and Metellus at this point - bad optics and we want a FL pipeline scool. McKeon is a TE and we look to be missing on the 3 top TE targets (Upshur, Nauta, Mathis) so I imagine he stays. That leaves Sir Patrick Scott or Dytarious Johnson - could see maybe 1 bumped as well - we are recruiting a lot of players at Scott's position and some rumors on boards about Johnson's grades. But for now I went with the 2 listed above as decommits.
- I am going with Josh Metellus as a grayshirt... as a guess.
Section 2 is who we will land and who we will miss on. This is based on trying to reverse engineer - obviously these things can change on a dime. I cheated here a bit by saying Quinn Nordin will be part of the class and decommit from PSU and go to UM despite having to pay out of pocket for a semester. Maybe a stretch but he is a Michigan kid and hey Harbaugh or Franklin for 4-5 years? So this would take us to 29 total commits... 2 grayshirts plus 27 normal.
FUTURE YES | FUTURE NO | |||||||
Pos | Name | Ntl Rnk | Projected | Pos | Name | Ntl Rnk | Projected | |
Most Likely | Solid Chance? | |||||||
DL | Rashan Gary | 1 | UM | CB | David Long (Stanford) | 63 | Stanford / UM | |
OL | Terrance Davis | 65 | UM | OL | Jean Delance | 90 | Texas / LSU | |
TE | Chase Allen | 562 | UM | WR | Dylan Crawford | 101 | Oregon | |
PK | Quinn Nordin* (PSU) | >1000 | UM | |||||
Some Shot? | ||||||||
Less Certainty | LB | Dontavious Jackson | 123 | Texas? | ||||
CB | Lavert Hill | 143 | UM / MSU | ATH | Jordan Fuller | 128 | OSU | |
LB | Jonathan Jones | 422 | UM / ND | DL | Connor Murphy | 205 | USC | |
DB | Chris Brown | 717 | UM / TX | DL | Levi Onwuzurike | 273 | WASH | |
OPEN SPOT | TE | Jacob Mathis | 315 | UF | ||||
Limbo | ||||||||
* | Grayshirt | WR | π Young | 394 | UM | |||
ATH | Victor Viramontes | 435 | ||||||
ATH | Khaleke Hudson | 593 | WV | |||||
Unlikely | ||||||||
TE | Isaac Nauta | 9 | GA | |||||
ATH | Mecole Hardman Jr | 19 | AL | |||||
. | LB | Caleb Kelly | 23 | OK | ||||
DT | Boss Tagaloa | 96 | UCLA | |||||
WR | Donnie Corley | 119 | MSU | |||||
DL | Chris Daniels | 171 | OK | |||||
WR | Velus Jones (USC) | 426 | TN? Ore |
Comments on Projected "YES"
- This list is quickly shrinking as less spots are left. If Nordin / Metellus are grayshirts AND we get 2 decommits, 7 spots remain. If less grayshirts and/or less decommits than less spots of course.
- I've split the "YES" into 2 categories - one UM feels like a clear leader or flip candidate and then more foggy types.
- Mitchell has indicated a new yes is coming soon ("end of week").
- Gary visits in January and this battle goes down to the wire due to SEC teams involved but at this point he really seems like UM's to lose. Wiltfong says Ole Miss is probably top competition with Gary's friend and #2 overall player Greg Little committing this week.
- Davis comments post official to OSU were less than giddy - sounded like he did not get the attention he wanted and he seems less "all in on UM" vs what he once was. But at this point I still have him in the class. A few weeks ago Lorenz said UM would prefer a tackle (Delance) over a guard (Davis) but he changed that to either would work last week. Not sure if that means there is room for both or first come first serve. Maybe he should be in "less certainty" bucket after last visit.
- Allen was just offered and becomes an immediate projected yes as his best offer til 3 days ago was Minnesota. FSU offered yest in a fit of butt hurt and apparently his FG kicker from ig school is headed to FSU but... we'll go with yes.
- Hill and Corley announce together @ some point - most assume UM for Hill and MSU for Corley. Loss of Durkin seemed to sting Hill. MSU very involved here.
- Jones has had UM as a favorite seemingly as long as Davis; it appears to be down to UM vs ND and UM is putting a hard core press on him with multiple visits the past few weeks. 50/50 rigth now it seems.
- I have Nordin as a grayshirt - he seems destined in the class as he has now removed PSU commit from twitter and seemingly lives in Ann Arbor on weekends.
- Brown seems down to UM v Texas. Brown's dad seems to like UM. Not much visibility here, I am guessing on this one.
[hi Jessica]
Comments on Projected "Maybes / No"
- I've split the "No's" into various groups that are subjective. Some no's could be yes's of course. Focusing on most potentially yes guys at top.
- Delance visited last weekend and it seemed to go well - battle seems to be with Texas and LSU. No movement on crystal ballz in UM favor at this time.
- UM is putting a full court press on flipping Long from Stanford; still seems 50/50. Could be silent commit Ahmir hints at?
- Crawford is really quiet so impossible to read - the longer he does not commit to Oregon which is his dream school, I suppose better for UM. UM was out to visit in past week. Looks like he will be EE so we should know soon. I'd love if he was the silent commit Ahmir hints at? Lots of UM love on his twitter.
- Jackson looks to be a UM fav but Durkin loss may have hurt with him (even Bush said Durkin loss "hurt"). A lot of big players are still involved here.
- Fuller might be a dream but another candidate for Ahmir silent commit as he is from Jersey. That said OSU is the supposed leader. UM seems to be in his top 5.
- Murphy has scheduled a Jan visit. Not sure if DE is a top priority... if other players fall through maybe you go hard at him late?
- Onwuzurike has been a mystery - starting to see some crystal ballz to Washington on him. Will name a top 4 soon supposedly. If UM is in it obv that would be good.
- I don't know if Mathis belongs in this section or lower - UF has a very TE heavy offense and don't hear much in terms of him in relation to UM of late.
- Vicious Vic - per Webb it sounds like UM might go back to him late if other targets fall off but not til Jan.
- Nate Johnson may have taken Young's spot... or Young may be Ahmir's silent. Who knows right now.
- Hudson is also getting buzz as the Ahmir silent!
Of the rest of the "No"s
- To me Nauta wants to go to Georgia short of an ebola breakout hitting Athens. Every comment he makes leaves the door wide open to go to Georgia so I am quite pensive on any chance for UM here. We seem a clear second.
- Hardman per Webb disliked MI's weater - Webb said even if UM got Pruitt he'd be a difficult pull so he seems to be a dream at this point.
- No movement on Kelly since last update - for a high profile recruitment we supposedly have a decent chance on you don't hear much in UM's favor other than "under the table" stuff - all the ballz to OK.
- With Camp off the board due to weather, UM pressing on Daniels again but apparently he loves Oklahoma, and now says "distance matters" so seems like we are outside looking in there. Announces tomorrow.
- Jones was here for OSU game - seems to be trending to Oklahoma too.
They gone
- McCullouch named a top 5 that didnt include UM.
- McDoom committed to Oregon.
December 18th, 2015 at 8:41 AM ^
actually 2013 is headed by green - sigh.
December 18th, 2015 at 12:30 PM ^
When I read everything about Walker, I'm sorry...but I just have deja vu. It sounds EXACTLY like Green on the surface.
December 18th, 2015 at 1:04 PM ^
I'll leave that to guys who coach football like the Magnus types. If you want me to evalute hs sr soccer players I can do that :) All these highlight films look so similar to me - a lot of prime time athletes who just look so much better than 90% of their competition its difficult to judge who is "good" @ football and who is just getting by, by being a superlative athlete. When I watch these "great films" I know by probability every 3rd one is a future bust - but who knows which ones.
I could pick out a 13 year old soccer player's strengths and weakness in 3 minutes of watching because I've lived and breathed that sport for 30 yrs and have a huge volume of experience - I assume people who live football for decades have a similar eye for that sport.
Just going from memory Green was supposed to be more of a downhill runner who was going to be a bowling ball on wheels and punish people....with just enough speed to evade. Maybe like we think of Kingston Davis now. While people who watch this stuff daily say Walker is more of a guy with cuts and burst thru a hole. Lacks top end straigline speed but is quick.
I just have to think we are going to hit on 1 of these backs just by probability - we can not be cursed. LJ Scott was the 6th back in his class and is already showing he is the real deal. Gerald holmes looked better than anything we had this year and I think was a high 3*. Gotta hit on a guy eventually - we did for years on end without hiccup.
December 18th, 2015 at 9:39 PM ^
Sorry, what I was asking was could you compare the notes, ratings, etc. between the two.
December 18th, 2015 at 9:52 AM ^
Totally agree with you. I think the exciting part is that only recently have we been getting/hope to get the top 10/top 5 type of guys like Peppers and Gary that are *almost* sure-fire good players. That is what OSU has been doing and UM has typically lacked. Those type of players can really make a difference.
December 18th, 2015 at 12:33 PM ^
Bryan Mone.
I think he's going to make us cry about what this year could've been when we see him on the field.
December 17th, 2015 at 11:15 PM ^
December 17th, 2015 at 11:51 PM ^
But I really don't see anyone but Nordin greyshirting, but that's just me.
December 18th, 2015 at 5:32 AM ^
In last roundup someone said they could go to WCCC for a semester and transfer in to UM in Jan. That would be very "new" to UM process but common down south.
December 17th, 2015 at 11:17 PM ^
December 17th, 2015 at 11:55 PM ^
First, let's trust the coaches a little bit.
Second, burned on on David? How do we know how he's going to pan out? He'll be a RS Freshman next year. Do you remember Gibbons early in his career?
Allen is a RS Senior next year. Why does he factor into this? Giving a leftover scholarship to a kicker rather a walk-on is really all we're talking about. It has nothing to do with Allen. In 2017, you'll have 2 scholarship kickers...one of which likely becomes a punter.
Also, if Nordin is greyshirting, like I'm speculating...he wouldn't have a scholarship in this class. I believe you're talking about him arriving on campus in August. Paying his own way in the fall and signing like Ahmir Mitchell did today and getting his scholarship next year. So if you think Nordin is better than every kicker next year, then you absolutely do this.
December 18th, 2015 at 11:27 AM ^
fair enough, but then why is nordin waiting to commit ? seems odd.
December 18th, 2015 at 1:10 PM ^
b/c we may not have a scholarship for him .
December 18th, 2015 at 9:41 PM ^
I don't think he has a scholarship...and if he's greyshirting, then he won't have one for awhile. So we may not see him commit this recruiting cycle.
December 17th, 2015 at 10:20 PM ^
Sigh.
December 17th, 2015 at 11:20 PM ^
no matter how everytning shakes out before signing day. IMO Peters is one of the top 3 QBs in the country!
December 17th, 2015 at 11:27 PM ^
December 18th, 2015 at 5:28 AM ^
After doing some more digging on hudson he might be more of a serious candidate than I assumed. Lots of UM 2016 croots are in his follow list recently, will visit Jan 15th and Zordich visited Dec 6. And he appears to be tracking to be a safety which we need.
A lot of very good defensive minds want him - PSU, Wisconsin, Pitt, VA Tech.
Mighy be a case of its Fuller or him for S, and they want to see if they can get Fuller first...
December 18th, 2015 at 6:30 AM ^
Also with McDoom to Ducks and that guy who left OSU to be a potential wideout for Oregon it seems Crawford could be the secret commit Ahmir hinting at.
December 18th, 2015 at 8:38 AM ^
December 18th, 2015 at 12:23 PM ^
Maybe a center named Unt too
December 18th, 2015 at 9:01 AM ^
December 18th, 2015 at 9:38 AM ^
I've never been a big fan of greyshirts. I don't like the message it sends and I struggle to see any player that we'd demote to a greyshirt really having that much potential to be a significant contributor. Why not give that kid the chance to go somewhere on a full ride scholarship and save the scholarship for the following season's recruiting class?
I suppose the only exception would be if you told the kid from day #1 that we were offering him as a greyshirt. But anyone getting moved to greyshirt seems uncomfortable to me.
As for Nordin, I see no way he would do that. This kid hs multiple scholarship offers from big time programs. Unless he's a die-hard Michigan fan, why do it? And if he were a die-hard fan, why did he pick PSU in the first place?
December 18th, 2015 at 9:40 AM ^
Does anyone see any way we can fit both into this class? Would we even take both?
Assuming that were even possible, does either have the potential to play safety in the future?
It seems like people are higher on Long as a prospect, but I've always liked Hill and I think he's leaning toward UM.
December 18th, 2015 at 11:08 AM ^
I'm higher on Long but realize that if we take Long over Hill then Hill likely ends up at MSU. If I had an MSU fan's mentality I would want HIll over Long but that's not the Michigan way.
December 18th, 2015 at 10:33 AM ^
Best guess at swim lanes!
9 swim lanes for 4 current spots. Or 6 spots if you believe my 2 decommits.
Swim Lanes | |
$$ | Rashan Gary |
OL | Davis / Delance |
WR | Crawford / Young |
TE | Allen / Nauta / Mathis |
DB 1 (CB) | Hill / Long / Brown |
DB 2 (S) | Fuller / Hudson |
LB | Jones / Jackson |
DE | Murphy / Onwuzurike |
MISC | Nordin |
December 18th, 2015 at 10:59 AM ^
to see how this ends. As you mention, the number of available spots is decreasing. They're almost guaranteed to leave a scholarship available for Gary. I'd love to be a fly on the wall at football offices to hear how they are prioritizing these final spots. They could end up having more kids interested in committing then scholarships available.
December 18th, 2015 at 10:59 AM ^
I have a feeling that there is still a lot of movement to come in this class. Harbaugh will get a lot of the guys he wants. A top five class is going to happen. Just sit back and let Harbaugh and staff work their magic! It's going to be fun!
December 18th, 2015 at 11:08 AM ^
This is the first I have read of a potential Nordin greyshirt. I get he is in-state so the financial impact isn't as great as it would be on others, but I still question why he would want to do that when I figure he could easily get in day one with many other D1 programs. Is his family well off enough where it's no big deal to them? If he really loves Michigan it makes sense, but if he loves Michigan that much why wouldn't he have commited there in the first place? Does Harbaugh make that much of a difference to a kicker?
December 18th, 2015 at 1:09 PM ^
Its a rumor to try to fit more position players in. Being local it makes some sense. Kid could drive to WCCC if he wanted for a semester. I think the way you position with him is say we want you ...but need to see how our #s work out and we still want you in the end even if we cant make it work for 1 semester. By the way - 4-5 years of Franklin or 4-5 years of Harbaugh?
December 18th, 2015 at 1:30 PM ^
He has a bunch of other offers besides PSU which is why I was wondering why Harbaugh would want to mess with potentially losing him due to greyshirt.
December 19th, 2015 at 8:34 PM ^
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
December 18th, 2015 at 11:15 AM ^
Maybe create another category "Back up plan"?
If we miss out on Nauta and Mathis, Tony Poljan could get a look at TE.
http://247sports.com/Player/Tony-Poljan-75248
He just got offered by OKST, NEB, ISU, MSU.
December 18th, 2015 at 12:19 PM ^
If there was one thing I was thinking when reading this outstanding work it was "This really needs more categories". One more would definitely take it to the next level.
December 18th, 2015 at 1:38 PM ^
Obviously he put a TON of time into it, making a suggestion acknowlegdes and contributes to the effort, doesn't take away.
December 18th, 2015 at 12:51 PM ^
Yes like hudson to me feels like a backup plan to fuller. Young for Crawford.
I am just going to do a swimlane chart go forward because the spots are so few and we have multiple guys going for same positions. I am not in a position to say if say Murphy is a backup to Levi or Long to hill.
p.s. Tony Poljan was offered by MSU today and crystal ballz flooding to him immediately.
December 18th, 2015 at 1:35 PM ^
I guess it would be going to extremes. Every year there are a couple late offers, sometimes local kids.
This is great work BTW. Very informative and to someone like me that doesn't have a lot of time to research or follow Twitter, it's a 'one stop shop'.
December 18th, 2015 at 12:19 PM ^
Don't want to lose dytarious johnson :-/
December 18th, 2015 at 12:48 PM ^
New name we are in top 5 for - GA LB apparently he pushed back is commitment date? Auburn the crystal ball fav. Could be a sign Jones is going Irish or a contingency plan if he does.
LB | Elysee Mbem-Bosse | 480 |
December 18th, 2015 at 2:10 PM ^
Levi just announced UM in final 4 with Wash, Baylor, ASU.
December 18th, 2015 at 2:37 PM ^
Idk if you'll see this, alum96, and I mean no disrespect. I love your updates. But I don't think we should speculate on specific grayshirts without anything substantial other than "he's low-ranked and I just picked at random." Why not just say "we need a grayshirt but it's anybody's guess who that may be"?
I don't think it's respectful or wise to speculate on something like that without more than guesswork. Who knows who reads the board? What if we had this get back to a recruit, get distorted, and put doubt in their mind about their scholarship?
I just think you should consider editing to remove that. Just my thoughts, maybe I'm wrong.
December 18th, 2015 at 2:58 PM ^
Question on Nordin's grayshirt:
If Nordin grayshirts, he would not be eligible to play next year, if I'm correct?
This would actually work out for all parties. Kenny Allen would be the PK next year, then Nordin would be the man for 4 years.
Also, this would avoid having to waste a redshirt year on Nordin, all the while keeping a place open for the limited recruiting spots remaining.
Now, if he were to enroll in January, 2017, would he count against the 2017 recruiting class or could he slip between the cracks? Or enroll for the fall semester as a prefered walk-on, then receive a scholarship in January?
In short, the shirts would just be changing colors from red to gray. Hum... Reminds me of the colors of some school down south ;o)
This would also mean that Andrew David would be dead weight on the 85 man roster, hoping that Nordin lives up to his rankings.
December 18th, 2015 at 3:18 PM ^
and the fall semester would come out to around $7000 + housing, if he were to enroll in the fall.
Add in the travel costs to PA for himself and family visits over 4 years and the difference would be minimal.
I've heard that his parents are well off and I'm sure that they would enjoy being able to see him play at all home games.
So this may not be as negative as previously thought.
December 18th, 2015 at 5:20 PM ^
If he starts as a student, his 5-year eligibility clock begins to run, even if he's not on scholarship.
December 18th, 2015 at 5:28 PM ^
So if he were to go that route, he would wait to enroll in January.
December 22nd, 2015 at 1:53 PM ^
A grayshirt can be accomplished by having him enroll in January 2017, on full scholarship, rather than in September 2016. His family wouldn't have to pay for anything; he'd just have to hang out for a semester.
December 18th, 2015 at 9:21 PM ^
Long finally decommits and it appears to be WA v UM. Fun!
December 19th, 2015 at 2:04 AM ^
Top Target | Backup | Backup | Result? | |
$$ | Rashan Gary | Nobody | Rashan Gary | |
WR | Dylan Crawford | π Young | Velus Jones | Dylan Crawford |
TE | Isaac Nauta | Chase Allen | Jacob Mathis | Chase Allen |
LB | Dontavious Jackson | Jonathan Jones | Elysee Mbem-Bosse | ?? |
CB | David Long | Lavert Hill | Chris Brown | ?? |
S | Jordan Fuller | Khaleke Hudson | ?? | |
OL | Jean Delance | Terrance Davis | ?? | |
DE | ? | Connor Murphy | Levi Onwuzurike | ?? |
ETC | Quinn Nordin (PSU) | Victor Viramontes | Quinn Nordin | |
Nope | Mecole Hardman Jr | Caleb Kelly | Donnie Corley | n/a |
December 19th, 2015 at 6:09 PM ^
I really don't see Chris Brown in this class. David Long to UM has been a gut feeling of mine for forever now and obviously just officially decomitted from Stanford. I just think he is more likely.
December 21st, 2015 at 2:25 PM ^
If Long and hill are in, Brown would be out for sure. And if we get other positions like a Levi O type of guy I see him out too. Things change daily - this was written a few days ago now. Long is now WA v UM; Crawford might be a heavy lean, etc.
A lot depends on who wants in - he is obviousy a contingency type of recruit.
Comments