Playoff Path Just Got a Lot Clearer
With Stanford and Utah losing today, the Pac-12 would appear to be out of the CFP picture. That leaves the other four P5 conferences and Notre Dame. So just three things have to happen now for us to make the four-team field:
- OSU beats MSU next week.
- Stanford beats Notre Dame.
- We win out, and beat Iowa in the B1G title game.
- It's also possible that the Big 12 will cannibalize itself in the next two weeks and lose out on a spot.
Right now, the ACC (Clemson) and SEC (Alabama) appear to be in. The B1G champ has a great case for the third spot, so Michigan just needs to be the B1G champ.
Harbaugh took a bunch of guys who went 5-7 last year, and a quarterback that Iowa didn't want, and he's got us in the CFP conversation in late November. He's good.
November 15th, 2015 at 1:53 AM ^
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November 15th, 2015 at 2:02 AM ^
Another SEC team could sneak in if it's really close... aka Florida.
November 15th, 2015 at 2:15 AM ^
If Florida is the SEC Champion, they would already be in the CFP. If they weren't the SEC Champion, it would mean that 'Bama beat them in the SECCG, at which point there's no way they'd be chosen over the actual B1G champ.
November 15th, 2015 at 10:04 AM ^
Michigan and a B1G Championship?
Conference championships DON'T MATTER...when will people get this? They say it every week and we're always like "naaah, you're lying to us." You may not agree with it, but that's how it is.
The thing that matters is that those who play in conference championship game get an extra quality game on their resume. That's what killed TCU and Baylor last year. OSU was playing Wisconsin and destroying them and TCU and Baylor were playing Iowa St. or some crap teams as their 12 game of the year. OSU had an extra game and thus an extra quality win.
Jeff Long even said "we don't grade on a curve...if someone has more opportunities, then good for them. We don't say well team X played 12 and team Y played 13."
THAT is what matters...but the SEC and B1G both play 13 games when you talk about the 4 teams in the conference championship games between the two conferences...so it'll just be resume vs. resume. Winning a title isn't going to matter -- even though, it probably should.
It ain't right...but I'm not going to say for certain Bama wouldn't be in over Michigan.
November 15th, 2015 at 10:10 AM ^
Are you saying a 3 or 4 or 5 loss Iowa team who wins a conference championship game should be in over a 2 loss Bama that doesn't win? When the goal is to get the 4 best teams in college football?
Or flip it because the SEC East isn't strong. A 4 or 5 loss Georgia team who wins a SEC Champ should get in over a 1 or 2 loss Michigan who doesn't win the B1G?
Both of those would be insane.
The committee does not take conference championships into account. I don't agree with it, but that's how it is...so if we're going to sit here and speculate. We shouldn't make up criteria when they don't exist.
I think a 2-loss Michigan team should be in over a non-SEC champion for SURE because I don't consider MSU a "real" loss. So I use some common sense and say Michigan dominated that game and loss on a fluke play...so they get a .5 from me.
But is the committee going to say that? The SEC loving committee...are you SO positive that they're just going to jump Michigan ahead. I wouldn't be so sure.
THAT is what I'm saying.
November 15th, 2015 at 10:55 AM ^
November 15th, 2015 at 10:25 AM ^
You are right about 3 or 4 loss conference champion not getting in. This could very well happen in PAC-12 this year. If FSU beats FL, but FL goes on to beat AL,then AL would not have too many quality wins. Their best win would have been against LSU, which got rolled over by ARK. If ND wins out, OK wins out and M wins out, then it would look like this:
Clemson (assuming win out): #1
Three of the spots would have to go to
ND, OK, M, FL, AL, PAC-12 champion.
They would claim that OK and ND have one loss. so, they are in.
Between M, FL, AL, PAC-12 champion, it would be easy to eliminate PAC-12 as they wouldn't have too many good teams in the conference.
It would come down to M, FL and AL. I easily see them taking FL saying that they beat the Almighty Alabama. I think OSU having only one quality win (against MSU) will hurt us.
November 15th, 2015 at 2:19 AM ^
Yeah, I'm sure the committee would leave out the Big 10 champ for a 2 loss Florida. Come on man.
November 15th, 2015 at 7:44 AM ^
that doesn't go to the BIG refs to make that call.
November 15th, 2015 at 2:38 AM ^
I don't think the offense will put up enough points to beat FSU. And Bama would do the same thing to UF that they did to LSU.
November 15th, 2015 at 9:57 AM ^
I don't think you'll ever see a league get two teams in unless they're both undefeated going into their CCG and the loser was ranked 1-2 going into it.
November 15th, 2015 at 12:37 PM ^
Well, keep reading - I think there's a few ways down there...
November 15th, 2015 at 1:53 AM ^
November 15th, 2015 at 8:39 AM ^
November 15th, 2015 at 8:53 AM ^
/pukes
November 15th, 2015 at 9:08 AM ^
November 15th, 2015 at 10:02 AM ^
They lose to PSU the following week. HAHAHAHA!!!
November 15th, 2015 at 11:22 AM ^
Worst case, we get Alabama against State and that shit will be comical.
November 15th, 2015 at 11:54 AM ^
After the 2OT win vs Indiana how can well over 200 people even have spent this much time and effort fantasizing about the CFP?!
I mean, as an exercise in figuring out who to root against in all these other games - sure, why not?
But getting emotionally invested in our pathway to the CFP after that multiple penalty, sloppy ST, atrocious D performance? Not seeing it... Let's say that if all these scenarios somehow play out & we end up in the Rose Bowl (horror of horrors /s) - are we really gonna spend the entire rest of the winter (or of our lives) bitching about that?! Cumong Man!
November 15th, 2015 at 12:37 PM ^
instead of spending my time fantasizing about the CFP, i should spend all my effort preparing for PSU and OSU. Because, you know, if i do that then we will win. Sorry i got caught looking ahead.
November 15th, 2015 at 1:45 PM ^
What you should do is follow Bo's lead:
The goal is winning the B1G and going to the Rose Bowl. Anything else is gravy...
And after that narrow 2OT escape and all the attending problems, spending a lot of time and brain power charting a route where that outcome is no longer celebrated is actually a bit like asking for gravy on your Birthday cake!
November 15th, 2015 at 1:54 AM ^
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November 15th, 2015 at 1:57 AM ^
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November 15th, 2015 at 2:00 AM ^
Why? Is only irrational optimism allowed here? The team has demonstrated great improvement, but to suggest they have a legitimate shot at the playoffs is a joke.
November 15th, 2015 at 2:03 AM ^
November 15th, 2015 at 2:07 AM ^
Suggesting we have a small chance is one thing. But this is the 4th thread on the playoffs tonight. People evidently believe that this is a very real possibility, and that's nuts. This team squeaked by Minnesota and Indiana, has one victory over a ranked team, and has a devastating injury situation. Tons of toughness and heart, but come on. Get real.
November 15th, 2015 at 2:16 AM ^
"squeaked" by Tennessee (and Florida did too for that matter)...and your point is...
November 15th, 2015 at 6:43 AM ^
Considering you used 1 team as your comparring standard, perhaps this says more about Tennessee than those 3 teams? They have a lot of talent and have been recruiting well the past few years. They are not too far from putting it together, kind of like Indiana losing a bunch of close games.
November 15th, 2015 at 12:22 PM ^
November 15th, 2015 at 2:20 AM ^
BYU was 22 when we beat them and Northwestern was 13 with shutouts in both of those games.
November 15th, 2015 at 2:21 AM ^
Ohio State has zero wins over ranked teams. Should they get real too?
If you don't think UofM will win out then fine, but dismissing the playoff if they do is ridiculous.
November 15th, 2015 at 2:25 AM ^
Again, OSU has zero losses. We have two. Not sure why that's so hard to understand.
And sure, if UM wins out, they might have a shot. But when was the last team we beat a top ten team? And now we're going to beat two in three weeks with massive injury problems, no running game, and zero offensive playmakers? Sorry, but to me that's pure delusion.
November 15th, 2015 at 2:39 AM ^
OSU won a national title with their 3rd string QB. This is college football. Anything can happen. We get it, you don't think they will win out. Stop repeating yourself.
November 15th, 2015 at 9:21 AM ^
That's the problem with pointless MGoArguments: nobody's opinion changes and people eventually start repeating themselves.
November 15th, 2015 at 9:46 AM ^
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November 15th, 2015 at 2:41 AM ^
I think you're getting a little over dramatic...
- 0 offensive playmakers? I count 3: Rudock Peppers Butt... say that 3 times fast!
- Massive injury problems? Ryan Glasgow is a significant injury, I'll give you that... Ojemudia... also an impact but if RJS remains healthy it's not a big drop. Who else? Possibly Dymonte Thomas. MASSIVE is not an accurate descriptor. I have no data, but I'll guess at least half of FBS teams are worse off w/injuries to starters.
That said, I find it unlikely that we'll win the B1G... but dammit, I'll HOPE we do.
November 15th, 2015 at 3:28 AM ^
I think you forgot Chesson in your list of offensive playmakers. He's gotten open many times over during the season, and it appears that he and Rudock finally "understand" each other.
November 15th, 2015 at 7:46 AM ^
maybe?
November 15th, 2015 at 1:13 PM ^
November 15th, 2015 at 1:12 PM ^
November 15th, 2015 at 8:28 AM ^
November 15th, 2015 at 9:17 AM ^
You're forgetting Mone. Between Mone, Glasgow and Ojemudia.....Michigan is missing three of the top eight in the two deep for the front four. Massive might be extreme, but I'd say that the injury situation is significant (and that was very apparent yesterday).
You could argue that Mone hasn't been available all season and the defense was effective without him, but he's been eliminated from the depth and that has an impact.
November 15th, 2015 at 2:56 AM ^
November 15th, 2015 at 2:56 AM ^
November 15th, 2015 at 8:31 AM ^
November 15th, 2015 at 9:35 AM ^
November 15th, 2015 at 2:26 AM ^
I agree with your general sentiment, but actually we have to very convincing shutout victories over ranked teams - BYU and NW. I think with the injuries the likelihood of making the playoffs is slim, but it's still reasonable and fun to think about.
November 15th, 2015 at 2:28 AM ^
BYU won't be ranked after this week.
November 15th, 2015 at 7:42 AM ^
Yeah but neither will half of the teams that Bama beat for that matter.