SI's Ellis Predicts Records for New Head Coaches (Harbaugh predicted 6-6)

Submitted by Caesar on

Here's the link!

I think it's on the low half of 1st standard deviation events, and it's likely done to generate a reaction from a large and active fanbase. 

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remdog

August 11th, 2015 at 8:47 PM ^

probably the very bottom of our likely record this year.

I'm actually very optimistic.  I can see us being competitive in every game this year.  So much hinges on two things - our QB and OL.  If our QB and OL are decent and we avoid silly turnovers and sacks, we should have a good year.  And I am confident that Harbaugh and his staff have an approach that will produce at least a decent QB and OL.  So the sky's the limit.  But it's hard to say whether we will win or lose close games in Harbaugh's first year.  So we might lose a few games but Michigan football should be fun to watch every Saturday.

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Wolv27

August 11th, 2015 at 8:51 PM ^

6-6 means we drop games to Utah, BYU, MSU, OSU, Minnesota and Maryland (or Penn State). I think we could win at least two of those games... Obviously Ellis just wanted to create a reaction, drive more page views. And that's it.



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massblue

August 11th, 2015 at 9:07 PM ^

This should give the players more incentive to prove people wrong.  I am looking for one that says we are going to finish 5-7.  It will be a perfect poster for the locker room.

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jared32696

August 11th, 2015 at 9:15 PM ^

Okay so i maybe wrong here but no one is catching the fact ellis is an idiot. I think Michigan has more than 11 starters. I could be wrong but I think we do.so no one calls his dumbass out on that?

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jared32696

August 11th, 2015 at 10:11 PM ^

I wish i was that young. I was born in 85. Im going to say something crazy. But the 32 was for a famous and greatest 6'9" point guard. I know its stupid but his origin was kept a secret until 1998. 696 is bc I ran out of digits but... hell you get the point...i hope?!?!?

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flashOverride

August 11th, 2015 at 9:17 PM ^

Eh. This team went 5-7 last year and could have gone 3-9 (PSU, NW) or 7-5 (Rutgers, Maryland) or anything between. 6-6 is certainly a possibility, but I consider it the lower end of likelihood (my "window" is 6-6, 7-5, or 8-4) so I would pick it if I were trying to be provocative. I can't speak to Mr Ellis' motivations. 

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CoachBP6

August 11th, 2015 at 9:23 PM ^

The defense will be too good for the team to go 6-6. Special teams should be much better, and offensively things should be better by default. I see 7-5 as the low and 9-3 as best case.

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Ghost of Fritz…

August 11th, 2015 at 10:13 PM ^

[edit: whatt are sprecial teams?  Sorry for the mistaken double post].

Whenever you are replacing a punter and a field goal kicker, it is hard to say that special teams will be better.

I get what you are saying.  We now have a top shelf special teams coach, and will always see 11 guys on the field, better punt formations, etc. 

O'Neil will very likely be a fine punter to repalce Hagarup.  Still, I want to see some field goals kicked before I conclude that our special teams will be better. 

With the question marks on offense, even if the rest of the special teams play is better, having a shaky field goal kicker could cost a couple of games.  It means locsing close games.  And it means a head coach who has to go for it on 4th a 6 at the 32 lard line. 

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Ghost of Fritz…

August 11th, 2015 at 10:12 PM ^

Whenever you are replacing a punter and a field goal kicker, it is hard to say that special teams will be better.

I get what you are saying.  We now have a top shelf special teams coach, and will always see 11 guys on the field, better punt formations, etc. 

O'Neil will very likely be a fine punter to repalce Hagarup.  Still, I want to see some field goals kicked before I conclude that our special teams will be better. 

With the question marks on offense, even if the rest of the special teams play is better, having a shaky field goal kicker could cost a couple of games.  It means locsing close games.  And it means a head coach who has to go for it on 4th a 6 at the 32 lard line. 

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CoachBP6

August 12th, 2015 at 12:39 AM ^

Obviously you are unaware of the impact of proper coaching. Baxter is regarded as one of the best special teams coaches in the country. With how atrocious special teams has been, there is no where to go but up. Offensively, the line is experienced and under better coaching. I'd be shocked if Harbaugh and this staff o ly manage to reach 6-6.

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Perkis-Size Me

August 11th, 2015 at 9:50 PM ^

Hoke essentially coached the exact same team last year and he got us five wins. I think Harbaugh alone is worth another 2-3 wins anyway.

Not expecting any miracles next year, but I think 8-4, maybe 9-3 is very reasonable.



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mgoblue0970

August 11th, 2015 at 10:04 PM ^

Is it really that unreasonable?

Last year's oline was pure shit.

What has Michigan done against tOSU and Moo U lately?

Michigan has lots of ??? at DB, RB, and QB -- nobody distanced themselves from the pack in spring camp either.

6-6 could very well be Michigan's record this year -- better than JH's first at Stanford.  Dude can clearly coach but is it enough to be able to take over all this raw and undeveloped talent?!

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blueday

August 11th, 2015 at 10:06 PM ^

Michigan has lost in years that they were higher rated blah blah blah. To our opponents. ..meet karma. Your days are numbered.

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UMProud

August 11th, 2015 at 10:15 PM ^

 

Looking at this kid's predictions he almost looks like he took the Vegas over/under and subtracted 1 on many of them.

Predictions are dumb not sure why anyone would want to stick their neck out like that.

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Ghost of Fritz…

August 11th, 2015 at 10:24 PM ^

8-4 or 9-3 seems much more likely that 6-6.

Still, a disappointing record in Harbaugh's first rebuilding year would not be uprecedented...

Saban's first year at Alabama:  7-6.

Pete Carrol's first year at USC: 6-6.

Strong's first year at Texas: 6-7.

Saban and Carroll got in going in year 2.  Strong is probably a very good coach, but not a good as Harbaugh. 

 

 

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big john lives on 67

August 11th, 2015 at 10:41 PM ^

Most of the national, uninformed media is a little confused about the situation at Michigan.  They see Harbaugh coming in and the failed past with Hoke and believe that this is a total rebuild.  However, we all know here that there is a plethora of talent on this roster.  Harbaugh and his excellent staff will really surprise these people.  10-3 with a bowl victory.  The defense will be excellent, the offense will be functional, special teams will no longer be a severe liability, and a very motivated and intense team will be taking out a lot of past frustrations on this years' opponents.

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ford_428cj

August 11th, 2015 at 11:18 PM ^

Not listening to 6-6 horseshit - or reading this thread. I think we run the table this year to the final four. I will never think we will lose any games. I didn't from Bo thru Carr ...now with JH, that's back full on again!

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WorldwideTJRob

August 11th, 2015 at 11:22 PM ^

I predict 9 wins, but I can see someone from the outside thinking we will only win 6. They look at us as probably the 3rd/4th best team in our division. In terms of the conference we appear to be 7th/8th best, which makes us appear to be average (7-5, 6-6) in the eyes of many national pundits.



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kurpit

August 11th, 2015 at 11:49 PM ^

Wins don't just happen, people. I can't believe that everybody hasn't learned this over the last 7 years. Everybody seems to think it's unfathomable that Michigan could lose to Northwestern, Rutgers, Maryland, or Minnesota. We barely escaped Northwestern, lost to Rutgers, lost to Maryland, and got shredded by Minnesota last year at home, but despite this people seem to think that there is no way it happens this year.

8/9 wins was the standard under Carr, and Moeller but you all seem to think we're right back where we were in the 90s despite the lack of returning talent on offense. If Michigan wins 8 or 9, that is a great first year under a new coach and shouldn't be considered the floor for this year. They're missing some big pieces and are going to be adjusting to new schemes. The media isn't trolling you. You just need to take off your maize glasses and realize that there are plenty of games that could end up in the loss column.

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UM Indy

August 12th, 2015 at 7:21 AM ^

Agree with this for the most part. However, many of the losses over the last 7 years can be attributed to the oodles of turnovers, especially by the QBs, and the horrible position that put the defense in over and over again. I am expecting a significant reduction in turnovers and therefore am cautiously optimistic. By that I mean 8-4 as the floor.



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havkarl

August 12th, 2015 at 8:38 AM ^

your point. it's rational and it's well taken! there might be some indicators that help justify the over in a non homer way based on last year as a starting point. First is that this team lost by less than a touchdown in 3 losses. meaning, we weren't that far from our competition last year. Next is that we become the most experienced team in the country. This should be most apparent on the line. How many points per game is that worth? I'm not sure. We have an "easier" schedule without ND or wiscy, and msu and osu at home. one could argue that our winnable games got harder being away though. the other is our improvement in special teams and turn overs. there is literally only one way to go from where we were last year. I'm hoping we regress some to the mean. In my opinion, I think we win 8 games against Orgeon State, BYU, UNLV, Utah, Maryland, Rutgers, Northwestern, and Penn State.

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kurpit

August 12th, 2015 at 2:05 PM ^

Michigan didn't play Wisconsin last year either so that doesn't factor into the schedule being "easier" at all.

If you're saying that Michigan could have been 7-5 last year if a couple of those games go just a little differently, well, they also won 2 games by less than a touchdown so you could just as easily say that they could have been 3-9.

6 to 8 wins is what I see as being in the scope of reasonable expectations with 8 falling into the realm of a good season. 7 is par. 6 likely means that they couldn't find their offense, which given the lack of big playmakers, could happen.

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uncleFred

August 12th, 2015 at 2:31 PM ^

except for the continually discussed QB question. It's the lack of experience in a stable established offense. The offensive line has to play as a unit at speed against defenses that are used to selling out to penetration. Until the Oline can at least consistently prevent opponents getting into the back field and open holes with some frequency, opponents are going to bring it on every down. Admittedly a better passing game that burns them for selling out would help slow the defense down, but that requires solid pass blocking. It's a brand new offense and the coaches have only a very few weeks to get those guys up to speed to play a serious opponent away in the opener. 

Comments on media day from the defensive players indicate that the defense is at least similar to last season, although they also talk about it being different in technique and style etc. So it's unclear how similar it really is. Still we can hope that prior defensive experience transfers to this season.

Momentum is a strange beast. Beat Utah, sweep the OOC portion of the season and man the lights will be looking bright. Lose to Utah stumble against BYU and the attitude at the start of the conference portion of the season has a whole different frame. The players need proof that they can win tough games, especially tough away games.

Then there is luck. Luck played a big part in the results in 2011. Yes Mattison rejuvenating the defense by midseason was critical, but the TO margin was huge too. I'd like to believe that our 2015 team will be able to win despite bad breaks, calls, and bounces, but I know that in close games luck is going to be disproportionately important.

So while my heart wants 15-0, and I'll hold on to that dream as long as it's mathematically possible, my head says 7-5 or 8-4 is likely, with 6-6 or 10-2 about equally possible. With a new coach, no matter how gifted, new schemes all around, and a tough OOC schedule, 6-6 may be unlikely but it's not implausible.

Go Blue win it all!

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MGoblu8

August 11th, 2015 at 11:51 PM ^

I can't help but think that 7-5 or 8-4 is most realistic. Even if we have the horses, there were times over the couple of years where we were just awful. It seems like a lot of rust to shake, even with a superstar coach. We need a complete culture change. I just don't think it will happen that fast.

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ford_428cj

August 12th, 2015 at 12:38 AM ^

OSU barely got past Minn & PSU. We were tied at half time. Msu is beatable for sure. With the diff in coaching from last year - we could win out to a final four. Carr was too conservative & let teams hang around. We finally seen in his last game - what always could have been with all that talent. I still always thought we would win them all. 97 it come all together. Odds are we won't win all this year & OSU is stacked to the max. But I am conceding zero games. I guarantee JH isn't thinking any losses either. JH will also be scheming & planning for msu & OSU like we we haven't seen in a long time.

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