Deflategate's True Benefit? Fumble Prevention
http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2015/01/ballghazi_the_n…
It seems that the rate at which Patriots fumble is statistically highly unlikely.
Do you think the coach was not aware of this fact?
January 24th, 2015 at 4:04 PM ^
January 24th, 2015 at 4:15 PM ^
"Based on the assumption that fumbles per play follow a normal distribution..."
Maybe it doesn't follow a normal distribution. Even if it did, there is still an assumption that they started deflating balls in 2007. We've already heard that other quarterbacks do this, so why don't those teams outside of the normal distribution? I read this the other day and decided not to post it because of all of the assumptions and implications they are making.
January 24th, 2015 at 4:36 PM ^
I'll bite because this is getting idiotic.
1. There is no evidence that the Patriots were systematically deflating footballs. This was one game and just one half of one game. In the half without the deflated ball, the Patriots outscored their opponent 28-0.
2. There is no evidence that deflating a ball 2 psi reduces fumbles.
3. In the chart from the article, the Falcons have been better over the past 5 years at fumbles/play than the Patriots. And the Saints are right behind the Patriots.
4. The article is fast and loose between "fumbles lost" and "fumbles". To the point where it is not at all clear what is being reported.
Ultimately, the end game here is a statistic that says that a successful team has been turning over the ball infrequently. That's it. Can we please stop? I find it much more likely that the Patriots are a good team and are well-coached than that the entire secret to their success is a deflated ball. And the proof I have is stated in point #1 above.
January 24th, 2015 at 4:52 PM ^
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January 24th, 2015 at 4:43 PM ^
January 24th, 2015 at 5:01 PM ^
January 25th, 2015 at 1:24 AM ^
That an air compressor might have been used to fill the balls. If so, the air temperature in the receiver tank might have been significanlty higher than even ambient locker room temps. In any case, just reducing temperature from 70F to 50F is enough absolute temperature difference to cause air pressure to drop enough to move the balls out of spec.
This entire issue is foolish, if people really thought that there was any there, there, they would be insisting that the balls be checked immediately before being put into play and then subsequently throughout the game to account for differing environmental factors.
The real question is, given the science, why weren't Indiapolis' balls low on air pressure as well?
January 24th, 2015 at 4:44 PM ^
I think we're going to try to see what happens with a one DeflateGate thread per day rule for now. I won't stop all discussion, but this thread can now stand - for whatever it is worth - as the repository for any further hot takes or discussion on the subject for today. Most of the other major angles have been extensively covered in the last few days, so for anyone who is looking to post on this - first, don't today, and second, do make sure that it hasn't already been discussed.
January 24th, 2015 at 4:56 PM ^
Does a deflated ball actually lead to less fumbling? And did they just start deflating balls in '07?
I'm not sure I find it all that amazing that a team that has almost entirely deemphasized the running game since Tom Brady established himself as one of the greatest of all time doesn't fumble all that often. How often do teams who utlizies quick drops and pick routes fumble? The Colts (under Manning) and the Saints feature prominently in this article, and they share that same passing oriented charecteristic with the Pats.
January 24th, 2015 at 5:10 PM ^
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January 24th, 2015 at 7:03 PM ^
The Patriots refuse to explain why the Colts balls didn't deflate because it does not fit their made up narrative. Its idiotic to blame the refs or the weather because if that were the case the same thing would have happened with the Colts balls.
One thing is for certain and that is whatever advantage NE got from doing this is gone forever. They will be watched constantly from here on out.
Also Belicheck commenting that they never do anything that could possibly wron was absolute garbage. Did he forget about Hernandez?
January 24th, 2015 at 10:36 PM ^
Why would he have to explain the Colt's ball preparation process? He only needs to explain what the Pats do to the balls, which he did.
We know you are a Ravens fan and hate the Pats, but to insinuate that the Pats did anything that any other team ever does, without proof is irresponsible. For you to insinuate that the Pats did anything wrong in the Hernandez situation is absolutely insane and extremely offensive.
In other words, you are a fucking idiot.
January 24th, 2015 at 11:12 PM ^
January 25th, 2015 at 12:05 AM ^
Balls were re-inflated at halftime. Stripped of his unfair competitive advantage...Brady immediately began playing lights out:
Brady, 1st half: 11/21, 95 yds, 1TD, 1 INT, 4.52 yds/attempt
Brady, 2nd half: 12/14, 131 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, 9.3 yds/attempt
Brady opened the 2nd half with 9 straight completions and led the Pats to TDs on 4 consecutive drives.
Also, fumble prevention...bah. Would deflated balls have kept the Colts from tackling Blount, who averaged 4.9 ypc and ran for 148 yds and 3 TDs??
THERE WAS NO COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE.
Given how the 2nd half played out, the Colts should have petitioned the refs to allow the Patriots to re-deflate the balls...
January 24th, 2015 at 10:33 PM ^
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/-bill-belichick-doubles-down-on-patriots--…
Dr. Belichick explains the process.