Profiles In Heroism: Tom Herman
Offensive Coordinator/ QB Coach Ohio State | |
---|---|
Age | 39 |
Exp. | 3rd year |
Record | N/A |
Previous Jobs | |
OC/QB @ Iowa St | 2009-11 |
OC/QB @ Rice | 2007-08 |
OC @ Texas St | 2005-06 |
WR @ Sam Houston | 2001-04 |
Playing Career | |
WR at Cal Lutheran, 1994-97 |
These again. We're skipping Harbaugh because it's not like you need to be told about Harbaugh. In the event M does hire him, he'll get one.
These are in approximate order of personal preference.
Previously: Dan Mullen, Jim Mora
I know, I know: must be head coach, if not head coach doom doom doom. To me that thinking is excessively narrow when you start talking about guys like Gary Pinkel and Steve Addazio. Many of the standout coaches in college football today started their head coaching careers at Power 5 schools—even major ones.
Here is a list of currently active college head coaches who had never been head coach before their appointment at a Power 5 school, in approximate groupings:
SUCCESSFUL OUTSIDERS
note: "outsider" includes people brought in from the outside as designated successors who went through a coach-in-waiting period like Fisher and Bielema.
Jimbo Fisher (Florida State), Bob Stoops (Oklahoma), Charlie Strong (Texas via Louisville), Dan Mullen (Mississippi State), Bret Bielema (Arkansas via Wisconsin), Bill Snyder (KSU), Mark Richt (UGA), Dana Holgorsen (WVU), Les Miles (LSU via Okie State), James Franklin (PSU via Vandy)
MEH
Steve Sarkisian (USC via Washington).
GROOMED INTERNAL CANDIDATES
Mike Gundy (Oklahoma State), Gary Patterson (TCU), Dabo Swinney (Clemson), Mark Helfrich (Oregon), Pat Fitzgerald (Northwestern), Kyle Whittingham (Utah), David Shaw (Stanford).
WE HIRE THESE GUYS BECAUSE WE HAVE FEW ALTERNATIVES
- Paul Chryst (Pitt), Scott Shafer (Syracuse), Paul Rhoads (ISU), Kliff Kingsbury (Texas Tech), Kyle Flood (Rutgers), Derek Mason (Vandy), Mike Leach (WSU via Texas Tech), Mark Stoops (Kentucky), Kevin Wilson (Indiana)
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This is biased in favor of good coaches because bad ones get fired, but this list contains 18 names before you even get to the "no alternative" section—approximately half of Power 5 existing head coaches had no experience with a top job when hired.- In addition, there are a number of current head coaches with very brief or almost irrelevant head coaching experience. Before Nick Saban was hired at MSU he had all of one year as a HC at Toledo; Gus Malzahn was at Arkansas State for a single year before Auburn scooped him up; Hugh Freeze was at the same place for a single year and had a couple years at something called Lambuth beforehand.
When you take the guys who were hired based on things other than their head coaching experience you have a collection of assistant-hirin' schools that are amongst the biggest in college: Florida State, Oklahoma, Georgia, Oklahoma State, Washington, Oregon, Clemson, Wisconsin, Auburn, Ole Miss.
Hiring a hot assistant is a valid option if the right guy is available. And Tom Herman has a case that he's the right guy.
[After THE JUMP: all about that case.]
Xs and Os Proficiency
This is not much in question after Ohio State's third string quarterback blasted Wisconsin even deeper into the stone age in which they comfortably reside. Ohio State had the best rushing game in the country last year; this year they lost their QB, RB, and four offensive linemen and experienced almost no dropoff. In a couple metrics they actually improved!
[Italicized years did not feature the coach in question and are provided for comparison. I grabbed the previous two years at OSU to compare the Herman offense to the one piloted by Tressel and a junior Terrelle Pryor as well as the one-off Bollman year.]
Year | Team | FEI | S&P | YPP |
---|---|---|---|---|
2006 | Rice | N/A | 69 | 70 |
2007 | Rice | 67 | 106 | 72 |
2008 | Rice | 7 | 23 | 18 |
2009 | Rice | 115 | 118 | 117 |
2008 | Iowa State | 74 | 105 | 55 |
2009 | Iowa State | 51 | 42 | 78 |
2010 | Iowa State | 79 | 83 | 111 |
2011 | Iowa State | 82 | 101 | 106 |
2012 | Iowa State | 58 | 65 | 100 |
2010 | Ohio State | 16 | 12 | 17 |
2011 | Ohio State | 65 | 65 | 80 |
2012 | Ohio State | 10 | 16 | 32 |
2013 | Ohio State | 3 | 2 | 5 |
2014 | Ohio State | 9 | 1 | 4 |
Herman came to D-I after a prolific tenure as Texas State's I-AA offensive coordinator and turned the 2008 Rice outfit into an explosive 10-3 outfit—Rice's head coach is a defensive guy.
That got him a move up to Iowa State, where his offense was kind of okay in year one and then statistically horrible. Iowa State was 90th in scoring offense in Herman's third year, worse in yards per play, and the advanced metrics agreed. His Wikipedia page tries to make it look nice by noting that he put up 41 in an inexplicable blowout of Texas Tech; it does not mention that the next week the Cyclones put up 13 on Kansas and lost to Rutgers in the Pinstripe Bowl with the same number of points.
But Urban don't curr, so he gets hired at Ohio State. He had the twin advantages of not having a true freshman quarterback and not coaching under an interim, so a year-one surge was expected. For Ohio State to get instantly back to par with a very good Tressel offense featuring college superstar Terrelle Pryor was not, and the last two years he's taken OSU's offense into the stratosphere. He won the Broyles in a runaway this year.
Recruiting
Herman has a slightly better QB recruiting record than Al Borges
Data relatively thin what with his existence at Iowa State (no recruiting possible) and Ohio State (the prospects throw themselves at you), but Herman was named the 2013 Rivals Big Ten recruiter of the year. He live-tweeted a recruiting trip when he got caught in the Atlanta ice storm earlier this year; he ended up spending 19 hours in a car. That's some terrific battery discipline.
Herman's been tasked with Texas for the most part and has done major work there:
In the 10 years that Jim Tressel led Ohio State, the Buckeyes attracted the same amount of Lone Star State recruits to Columbus as Herman has in the past 10 months.
Those recruits included five-star LB Mike Mitchell, Dontre Wilson, and JT Barrett; Herman spent a decade coaching in Texas before moving to Iowa State.
CEO Stuff
None so far; he's coordinator.
It is worth noting that Urban Meyer coordinators have been top notch when offered head jobs. Dan Mullen just had a season where Mississippi State contended for a playoff spot; Charlie Strong made Louisville into a powerhouse and is now at Texas; Kyle Whittingham has been impressive in a decade at Utah; even Steve Addazio has done decently in two years at BC, though the jury is still out on him.
That's quite a hit rate, and indicates that Meyer both finds excellent coaches and lets them do their thing.
In addition, Herman is a really smart guy. He loathes the fact that a long time ago he signed up for MENSA and people continually bring this up, but it's true. He does party tricks:
Herman’s interview signified “the most intense 24 hours” of his life, he said. Meyer threw concepts at him to memorize and scolded him for using “should” instead of “will.” He wanted to see how Herman processed and relayed back information. He did not yet know that Herman could call an entire game on offense without glancing at a call sheet. Or that he would dominate on “Jeopardy!” and opine on everything from the Bible to ancient history to pop culture.
A couple years back Gerry DiNardo sat down with Herman after Herman's first season in Columbus to break down some plays; Herman comes off as friendly, eloquent, and totally in command of his material. He veritably radiates head coach.
Potential Catches
How much of his success is Meyer? Same question we asked with Mullen. Herman has steadily moved up the ranks, which speaks to how impressive he is in person, but before his OSU gig his main claim to fame was a single year at Rice. Like Mullen, I think there's a good case that Herman is a big reason for OSU's success here. Meyer was never a coordinator and his OCs call the plays; he provides a structure for the offense. Steve Addazio's tenure provides a counterpoint to people who assume any Urban OC is going to be good, and yeah Brantley is not Tebow but guess who has not recruited any Brantley-like QBs at OSU? The OC/QB coach.
Also, Herman's ability to get Miller, Barrett, and even Cardale Jones to perform over his tenure has been impressive.
But he's never been a head coach. It's a risk. You're fooling yourself if you think that just because head coach X has track record Y that your hypothetical other candidate is not a risk. See: Rodriguez, Rich. All kinds of head coaches move and lose their mojo.
The lack of experience does move Herman behind guys who have an obviously great track record like Stoops, but once you get past the slam-dunk level those advantages dim quickly. In the event that the Gundy/Patterson/Stoops level guys are off the table I'm not looking at Herman's relative lack of experience as much of a problem.
But what about the spread transition? It's a downer, but it's really not that different from what Michigan ran most of this year: inside zone. OSU runs it more vertically than most; it's still the same principles. The main problem is at QB, where there's not an obvious spread guy available. It's an issue. Michigan could scrape by with Morris or Malzone doing the Connor Shaw thing where he keeps 'em honest; it won't be ideal.
A hire like this would be hoping for a 20-year tenure, though, and some early bumps are happening no matter who gets the job unless you think a QB answer is going to pop up next year under a pro-style coach. Honestly, a spread that offers the potential to take hard decisions away from the QB is probably a better spot for Morris than your generic West Coast offense.
THAT WOMAN test. Herman passes; more generally, his demeanor and background fits with Michigan's culture. No one is going to deride this guy as a hillbilly.
Would He Take The Job?
Yes.
Overall Attractiveness
It's a swing for the fences… one I'd be fine with. If you can't beat 'em, steal 'em—Michigan learned that lesson a long time ago. Herman's done outstanding work, has all the recruiting ties you'd need now, and Urban Meyer coordinators have been some of the surest things available in coaching.
He's also on the upside, unlike a lot of the previously mentioned options. I would take him over many names mentioned in this search. Right now my list goes Harbaugh, Stoops, Herman.
December 10th, 2014 at 9:29 PM ^
Herman is too much of a risk, but there's no risk in hiring a 62-year-old proven cheater with a show cause order in effect until 2016? No true Michigan fan would want Tressel.
December 10th, 2014 at 6:15 PM ^
After what he's accomplished with that very young buckeye offense this season. Let's go to the dark side and hire him. Has all the intangibles to a long term relationship in Ann Arbor. Youth, recruiting connections, powerful offensive mind. He will be able to gain head coaching experience with Michigan.
December 10th, 2014 at 6:19 PM ^
after he worked under an Ohio State football coach a while back. He did ok didn't he? I think I heard his name a few times over the years. And he even said that he wanted to get rid of those ridiculous helmets lol. No, he didn't come straight from Ohio State, but close enough. Seriously, I'd take Herman. Meyer's track record with coaches that move on is darned impressive. No reason to think Herman would be different.
December 10th, 2014 at 6:20 PM ^
December 10th, 2014 at 6:35 PM ^
December 10th, 2014 at 6:35 PM ^
December 10th, 2014 at 6:37 PM ^
Little known fact: there is an English professor at Ohio State that shares a name with Tom Herman's wife. Not that I was looking into it or anything.
December 10th, 2014 at 6:43 PM ^
December 11th, 2014 at 8:21 AM ^
but I'm pretty sure his contract would stipulate that he starts AFTER the playoffs. If he would do that to OSU, I wouldn't want him at Michigan.
December 11th, 2014 at 4:36 PM ^
But every coach does that. RichRod did that. Gary Anderson is doing that this year, so is McElwain. This is common.
Once he has accepted the job at the head coach of the University of Michigan, he will be a little conflicted in his current position and even if he doesn't feel that way, I bet his players and fellow coaches will.
Unless you are suggesting we don't even sign him up until after the playoff is over, in which case I would only want to do that if we had to. But based on the Harbaugh timeline and the fact that OSU isn't going to win their first game, that wouldn't be that long from now.
December 10th, 2014 at 6:46 PM ^
I know some people will disagree with this, but it's true: Urban Meyer's coaching genius is not in his system (which tons of schools run). It's in his ability to communicate with his players, inspire them, and get them to do what needs to be done. If you read interviews with former Urban players, they basically say, "Coach Meyer got me to do things I didn't think I could do."
Chip Kelly's success is similar. While both use a scheme they believe makes it easiest to develop players and win games, it's not like they are using plays that other teams aren't using. They are simply better at getting their players to succeed.
Onto Tom Herman...my thoughts on this search have evolved quite a bit over time. Herman would be, IMO, the best coordinator we could hire. I would certainly put him behind the following candidates:
- Harbaugh (Jim)
- Harbaugh (John)
- Sean Payton
- Bob Stoops
- Mark Richt
I would probably put him behind these guys:
- Whittingham
- Mullen
- Mora
In the case of an OC with no HC experience, we at MGoBlog don't get the benefit of the most important pieces of the puzzle: the interview and references. If Herman comes to the interview with a plan--one that would have to include how he can win without his type of QB on the roster--and how he can build a program that can beat MSU and OSU, the most important piece being WHO CAN HE HIRE on his staff, then he could vault to the top of the "Plan B" guys. Players, coaches, and even some administrators will have a feel for how much this guy contributes to the success of a program, and if he's really good, he'll bring some damn good coaches with him.
This might sound ridiculous, but I have real concerns about Warriner (Kansas?) and Herman leaving OSU the same year--they'd be trying to poach some of the same coaching talent.
This is a long-winded way of saying, I really like Herman, but would need to see a good plan to be excited about him, and wouldn't be pleased with the hire until I saw his staff. That said, I would assume that if he was hired, he had produced a good plan with a good staff, and I would be hopeful...but I wouldn't feel great until I saw the staff, especially the DC.
December 10th, 2014 at 7:31 PM ^
I agree with all the stuff about leadership qualities. Truly great coaches are able to lead better than they scheme. Everyone can scheme (usually), I mean guys like Space Coyote know as much about football schemes as anyone (I don't mean that as a criticism, just it's not terribly uncommon for unknowns or lower level coaches to know an impressive level of football tactics) but it's the ability to lead and deal with all the other stuff in high leverage situations that seperates the elite from the average coaches.
December 10th, 2014 at 7:45 PM ^
Meyer went from BG to Utah to UF to OSU. That is a sensible approach.(One that Kelly also took save the BCS to BCS jump Meyer did)
Herman needs to go to a MAC-type school and succeed before he can be considered for a Power 5 school IMO. Meyer is such an overwhelming influence on offense that I need to see Herman do it by himself before I'll believe in him.
December 10th, 2014 at 6:52 PM ^
December 10th, 2014 at 6:59 PM ^
December 10th, 2014 at 7:00 PM ^
Nebraska were fools not to hire Herman. I look at him, his offense, his Texas connections - seems like a slam dunk. I wonder if there's something we don't know about Herman.
That said, yeah. I might put Mullen ahead of Herman, although I don't know about cultural pieces in Mullen's case. My list looks very similar to Brian's, probably with Mullen tied for 3rd with Herman. Next on my list had been Narduzzi into October - but not now. I suppose Miles is next on my list, although I really don't like the age, lack of offense, etc.
December 10th, 2014 at 7:14 PM ^
It looks like Eichorst just hired Riley because that was "his guy." I don't think they went to the trouble of looking at the field.
December 10th, 2014 at 7:19 PM ^
I'm still not convinced he will be a great head coach. I don't see any compelling evidence that his success isn't mostly due to him coaching under Urban Meyer. Remember what happened the last time we hired a top-shelf coordinator from a top-4 team?
December 10th, 2014 at 7:36 PM ^
??? Who are you referring to?
December 10th, 2014 at 11:29 PM ^
He's probably talking about Nuss.
December 10th, 2014 at 7:19 PM ^
with Herman. Would be FUN to have an OSU coach. In the tradition of coaches and players from Ohio. When the poopercoolers cried after our first beatdown we would be elated, no?
December 10th, 2014 at 7:26 PM ^
December 10th, 2014 at 7:27 PM ^
December 10th, 2014 at 7:33 PM ^
What makes Herman a better candidate than Scott Frost?
December 10th, 2014 at 11:45 PM ^
Longer OC tenure, he calls plays (Helfrich does for UO), recruiting chops, Meyer coordinators have proven to be excellent bets.
December 10th, 2014 at 7:34 PM ^
How do you know that?
December 10th, 2014 at 11:44 PM ^
It would increase his salary by 500%?
December 11th, 2014 at 9:19 AM ^
Not to mention it's a terminal college coaching job at the most storied program in the country, with a fanbase waiting to annoit as savior anyone who can pull the program out of its tailspin. The next highly successful M coach is going to be a Bo-like legend after our recent struggles.
December 11th, 2014 at 4:44 PM ^
Exactly. If I offered you (not you Brian, but the guy above who asked) a job at a comparable company, that was a step up from what you were doing now and was going to pay you 5x or so more for doing it - would you take it? There are very few circumstances where the answer isn't "In a heart beat."
Herman doesn't have any special connections to OSU or Columbus, and even if he has family nearby, it's not a huge geographic move. It's totally possible he doesn't accept a HC job at a smaller school because the increase may only be double or less. But to go from coordinator anywhere for HC at Michigan is an absolute no-brainer if offered.
December 10th, 2014 at 7:53 PM ^
I just hope there is a plan and its running its course.
#GOBLUE
December 10th, 2014 at 7:57 PM ^
with this guy's name being mentioned. Very impressed with OSU's ability to reload at the qb position. If JH is not in the cards-would not hesitate to hire this coach. Seriously, if you think Michigan is waiting for the NFL season to end so Jim can decide your kidding yourself. The deal with JH is either done or not happening.
w
December 10th, 2014 at 8:27 PM ^
This would be a significant gamble on UM's part. UM would not only have to transition back to a spread, but would have to do so under a freshman head coach. Yeah, I'm not keen on that.
I prefer him to Schiano and Addazio, but UM needs a proven coach at this point if they are going to catch OSU and MSU within the next 3-5 years. I
December 10th, 2014 at 8:01 PM ^
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December 10th, 2014 at 8:30 PM ^
It'd be a risk, but I think he would be a good hire if we whiff on all the proven, "A-list" guys (Harbaugh, Stoops, etc). Having somebody who knows Urban's OSU offense inside and out wouldn't hurt, either
December 10th, 2014 at 8:41 PM ^
I think there is going to be a few programs that are gonna be kicking themselves one day for not giving this guy a look.
December 10th, 2014 at 8:54 PM ^
His offenses were not very successful and steadily getting worse at Iowa State. Urban Meyer's offenses have been great at 4 different schools. If someone had given Meyer these players at any other time in his career, isn't this exactly what his offense would have looked like? I have a hard time seeing how Herman gets much credit for any of this.
December 10th, 2014 at 9:10 PM ^
If you require HC experience, don't be surprised when coaches turn them down and they hire Greg Robinson.
December 10th, 2014 at 9:13 PM ^
December 10th, 2014 at 9:13 PM ^
December 10th, 2014 at 9:32 PM ^
December 10th, 2014 at 9:36 PM ^
He's a gamer, but Youngstown State beat you to it.
December 10th, 2014 at 9:37 PM ^
There were a couple threads about him right after he got fired. We could do worse, but the consensus was against him, given that his teams at Nebraska always seem to play poorly in big games, sometimes even getting annihilated like vs. Wisconsin.
December 10th, 2014 at 9:47 PM ^
like the intellect and recruiting talent. will certainly know the 'big game' emphasis, and hopefully will steal signs for us when we play ohio.
December 10th, 2014 at 9:51 PM ^
Some in this thread are questioning whether he'd take the job or not ... seriously? He'd triple or quadruple his salary would he not? He be like, c'ya Urbz.
We'd need to get him a new hat obviously, and not a sweaty, faded M hat. And lose the goattee? Yeah. Then we're talkin'.
December 10th, 2014 at 10:06 PM ^
Big problem I see is his season won't be over until maybe days into January. Not sure if we want to start recruiting that late with a non big name. Would he even consider leaving his team before the first ever college playoff? Kind of doubt it. Would Urban let him stay as interim OC through the playoffs? Don't know about that either. Seems like a potential big problem with him. Otherwise I like him.
December 10th, 2014 at 10:13 PM ^
Tom Herman will probably be an excellent head coach in the near future but not at Michigan. It's not just that he has no college head coaching experience, it's that he won't inspire enough confidence in the fanbase to keep the stadium full or give him a chance to build a program. This is NOT 2007 anymore--after 2 failed coaching searches, 1 to modernize (RR) and a second to swing the pendulum back (too far) to the familiar (Hoke), let's face it we are all looking for a quick fix. We see it happen at other places (OSU, Alabama, Oklahoma, USC under Pete Carroll) and we think there's no reason it can't happen at Michigan right? The problem is there is no way to know if we'd succeed at finding a quick fix with a head coach. The reality is it's a crap shoot. We're all willing to roll the dice on Jim Harbaugh b/c we see him as essentially a sure bet, but other than him or Stoops or one of the other unavailable slam dunks we're not going to be very patient. We should be, and we might say we plan to be patient, but if there isn't a crystal clear improvement from year 1 to year 2 (with an upset or two!) to year 3 (contending for B1G championship) to years 4-5 (contending for playoff/national championship) we'll be ready to move on. We've been burned and we don't think we "deserve" to pay the price of hiring a young coach who needs time to invest in building a program over 4-5+ years. I think Hackett knows this and will not consider a coordinator like Herman even if he has obvious potential to succeed. It's just not the right choice for Michigan at this time. I think he'll play it safer than that which is not necessarily better for us in the long run but then again the long run is an unforseeable luxury when the program has gone progressively downward for 7 years (with the exception of 2011 which was an aberration).
December 10th, 2014 at 11:17 PM ^
Just one of the many reasons why Herman to Michigan would be a HUGE leap, and probably would fail. The guy needs to go to a MAC school or somewhere first, to prove himself as a HC and get some HC experience first before a program like Michigan should ever consider him.
Its a shock that so many people on this board consider Herman to be a viable candidate for this position, particularly at this time...but really at any time, without proper HC experience or more seasons of success as an OC, in a program other than Urban's. People comparing him to Bo are utterly INSANE.
December 10th, 2014 at 10:14 PM ^
Meaning he is not the right guy when you have experienced guys on the table like Miles. Why would an OC with no HC experience do better than RR? Answer, he won't, it's an experiment that Michigan cannot afford right now. With 10 years of middling performances anything less than a proven experienced HC would be irresponsible, reckless, stupid!?
December 10th, 2014 at 10:37 PM ^
History isn't necessarily destiny, but the historical record since 1960 yields a meager three coaches who moved directly from assistant positions at one BIG school to HC at another BIG program. The record isn't reassuring.
1977: DC Gary Moeller moves from UM to HC at Illinois; goes 6-24-3
1978: DB coach Rick Venturi moves from Illinois to HC at NW; goes 1-31-1
1991: OC Jim Colletto moves from OSU to HC at Purdue; goes 21-42-3
Hiring Herman is a big risk.
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