Why Isn't Michigan Basketball Recruiting at a Top 5 Level Yet?

Submitted by Victor Valiant on

I know this has been discussed before, but since it's an evolving conversation I just wanted to throw it out there again.

Why isn't Michigan basketball pulling in Top 5 recruiting classes yet? Don't get me wrong, Beilein and Co. have pulled in some great players, (GRIII, Trey Burke, McGary, Walton, Chatman, Levert, Stauskas, etc...) but they always seem to be guys that were either flying under the radar, late bloomers, or were seen as having a glaring deficiency in their game:

Stauskus (just a shooter)

McGary (old, concentration issues)

Levert (totally under radar)

Burke (small, passed over by OSU)

The list goes on...

 

247 has Michigan:

2014:  28th.

2013:  11th

2012:  7th

2011:  26th

 

After the fantastic success JB and the team has had, why aren't the Top 10 guys coming here? JB is clearly one of the best coaches in the country, gets his guys to the pro's, and has tangible success in the Big 10 and NCAA tournament. Michigan is also a top notch university. WHAT AM I MISSING! If I was a top 25 player in my class, I'd pay Michigan to let me play for JB.

EDIT: Clarified title a bit.

EDIT 2:  This post wasn't to blame JB for bad recruiting. He's actually done a fantastic job recruiting, all things considered. I should have been more clear. My main point was to ask why top 20 type players aren't coming here on a regular basis when it seems there are so many great reasons to do so.

 

BlueKoj

October 28th, 2014 at 8:19 PM ^

I don't disagree that talent matters and matters a lot. I think you're using the rankings of players/class as the "rule" when its clear that JB's "rules" may be as good an indicator of production/talent (especially in his system) as the "rankings." To already declare 2014 a "massive failure" and "huge regression" is hyperbolic at worst and premature at best.

BlueKoj

October 29th, 2014 at 8:23 AM ^

Sorry, I misunderstood your view on rankings. It seemed to be somewhat important to your point. So, you believe that JB massively failed because he didn't land most of his early (and favorite) pursuits? Further, the guys that he "settled" for are mostly sleepers and are a huge regression from his early pursuits, and this has little to do with rankings? And if so, logically could then predict a fairly similar regression in program success in '15-'16 and beyond?

UMaD

October 29th, 2014 at 6:29 PM ^

The rankings reflect talent but so does the degree to which JB and staff pursue and prioritize them  Neither evaluation is infallible.  People forget that Trey Burke and Caris LeVert were not guys that JB pursued with zest, but guys he was a bit fortunate to land when his plan A and plan Bs fell through.

The bottom line is that he is a good coach who develops the talent he gets, but he's not a miracle-worker - he still needs talent, like any other coach.  In the last few years he had it, but hasn't sustained the pipeline in recruiting. So, I expect this program to drop off a bit from the heights of the last couple seasons.

BlueKoj

October 30th, 2014 at 11:43 AM ^

I agree with a lot of what you're saying. Rankings matter, JB's eval/priorities matter, neither guarantee anything, etc.. Some regression to the mean is certainly possible. Still, Burke and LeVert are precisely the examples that lead me to think you're being overly certain in your pessimistic and premature declaration that the 2014 class is a massive failure in recruiting, a huge regression, and that it would take miracle work to make a 2nd weekend run in March. 

 

MoJo Rising

October 28th, 2014 at 1:42 PM ^

I think JB and his staff have a pretty good understanding that team chemistry trumps rankings and recruits kids that not only fit what we wants to do but will get along and play as a team. 

cp4three2

October 28th, 2014 at 1:58 PM ^

Our recruiting is fine. We have a roster with 2-4 NBA guys currently on it. What the hell are you talking about? McGary was the number 2 recruit in the country and Beilein doesn't go after 1 and done guys often. 

 

Also, wasn't Exum going to go to Michigan had he gone the college route?

dcmaizeandblue

October 28th, 2014 at 2:02 PM ^

Beilein has been pretty consistent in saying that he doesn't like taking one and done players. He feels they disrupt the team's identity because to get those guys you've got to make certain promises about playing time, etc. Also pretty much everything everyone else has mentioned is right.  

dothepose

October 28th, 2014 at 2:04 PM ^

There is absolutely no reason to not trust Beliein in who he brings in. He's hit on almost every guy lately , if this is our concern then I'm happy, haven't we learned anything from football that rankings don't matter?

Victor Valiant

October 28th, 2014 at 4:05 PM ^

Asking why Top 20 type recruits don't seem overly interested in Michigan does not imply anybody is unhappy with the current recruits/players. My OP was meant to examine what Top 20 type recruits think about the program and why they haven't seemed to give it strrong consideration. This has nothing to do with JB or any current/former players.

jsquigg

October 28th, 2014 at 2:32 PM ^

Because the OP touches himself at night.  Seriously, would you rather have a coach go to the final four and elite eight without a top five class or under perform with one?

Victor Valiant

October 28th, 2014 at 4:07 PM ^

What on earth are you talking about? My entire OP was essentially asking why Top 20 recruits aren't coming here. It wasn't questioning the team or JB. I wanted to better understand how the 5 star recruits see us. I understand now that the need to reflexively defend JB from criticism allowed many to see my post as a criticism of him, which it was not. I think he's done awesome given the circumstances.

qbwaggle

October 28th, 2014 at 2:33 PM ^

Does anyone on the internet do a "look back" and re-rank recruiting classes based on actual performance?

That would be more telling.

Class rankings before they even hit the court are just predictions. Who cares about the predictions (to some extent) - the actual result is what matters.

Coldwater

October 28th, 2014 at 3:17 PM ^

It's a mystery for sure why top ranked guys spurn Michigan. Beilein has proven he puts guys in the NBA, and his teams have made deep runs in the Tournament. I don't know. Beilein does great with lower ranked, gym rat guys that "fit" Beilein's offensive system. So he knows what he's doing going for under the radar guys.

MgoReader1986

October 28th, 2014 at 3:23 PM ^

Plenty of valid reasons have already been mentioned, but we also have to look at how close we have finished for very ELITE talent. Talent that had 0 interest in us 6 years ago: 

Karl Towns #4 Overall Kentucky- Had early interest in the program 

Kam Chatman #23 Overall Michigan- Committed 

Keita Bates-Diop- #24 Overall Ohio State- Had high interest in the program 

Deven Booker #29 Overall Kentucky- Had High Interest in the program (leading at one point) 

Trevon Bluiett #31 Overall Xavier- Had High Interest in the program 

James Blackmon #33 Overall Indiana- Had High Interest in the pogram (leading at one point) 

Jae-Sean Tate #56 Overal Ohio State- Had High Interest in the porgram

DJ Wilsin #69 Overall Michigan- Committed 

These are just players in the top 75 from last years class (according to scout) that visited Michigan and had us in the top 5 at some point. We are losing out to schools like Kentucky and Ohio State who have been to more finals fours over the past 10 years than we have. With a bit more time and success we can turn our very good recruiting classes to excellent ones. 

Sllepy81

October 28th, 2014 at 3:31 PM ^

a douchebag dressing as kiss, inviting drake to midnight madness to sell himself as a cool guy and i respect him for it. He recruits who fits his system, not top dogs all the time and wins because of it.

PeteM

October 28th, 2014 at 4:21 PM ^

First off, the 2012 and 2013 classes were top 20.  Prior to that , we were a team that hadn't made the tournament just once in over a decade and were nothing close to an elite program.   Classes before that were what one might expect given our standing in the BB world and still included Hardaway, Morris and Burke.

2014 was disappointing though Chatman and Doyle were sold pickups.  Here are my ideas as to why we struggle to the extent that we do:

1.  While there are counter-examples, it is simply harder to recruit at a football school.  Basketball is king at Duke, Kentucky, Kansas, Louisville etc.  It's not at Michigan. 

2. Also, as was said above, we've only recently become prominent in the basketball world after years of irrelevance.  18 year olds have no memory of the Fab Five.

3.  We have an in-state rival with over a decade of success up the road competing for in-state players.  Izzo has been building networks with high school coaches for 20 plus years. 

4.  As was said above Beilein isn't a Calipari-like salesman and as a result probably appeals to a certain types of players (gym rats, players whose HS coaches see the skill development).  He also seems like the kind of guy who wouldn't push the envelope on the recruiting rules unlike some other coaches.

5.  There are fewer spots in a basketball class than in football so 2-3 whiffs in a given year have a larger impact.

 

Coldwater

October 28th, 2014 at 4:31 PM ^

Regarding #3 as much as I can see, Beilein doesn't recruit the state of Michigan. Look at the roster....you see Indiana, Ohio, Illinois, Cali, and one Michigan guy-Walton. He doesn't not make it a priority to lock down the best players in Michigan. He never has. You can't blame that on the ties Izzo has with high school coaches.

mulhemp

October 28th, 2014 at 4:31 PM ^

I agree with many of you JB does not recruit a lot of the 1 and done guys.  According to rivals, only 1 of the top ten 2015 recruits even has a Michigan offer.  JB's genius is in picking guys he can coach and teaching them to play Basketball. All the old school coaches used to do this, but in todays world of Kentucky type recruiting classes its amazing JB can keep this going.  A great team will almost always beat a superior talented but induvidualistic group.

autodrip4-1968

October 28th, 2014 at 4:44 PM ^

Star ratings might be overrated. Big Ten championships, national championship game, elite 8 game. NBA players. I like the way coach Belien is developing these dudes. Excited for this season. Go Blue!

GoBlue_55

October 28th, 2014 at 5:21 PM ^

I'm not concerned with the ratings of the recruits as long as they are developed. Look at the recruiting classes the football team is pulling in, and look how things are going. 

treetown

October 28th, 2014 at 5:47 PM ^

Lately it seems that the posters on the board have been looking for one magic variable which if it could be changed would suddenly change the fortunes of Wolverine teams. It is almost as if the posters are hoping for a quick and simple fix. Why recruits end up at any particular school has many different factors - right now John Beilein is doing a fantastic job and if he can win the NCAA or keep showing up in the Final Four we'll definitely see more "name" recruits showing up on campus to look around BUT I suspect we won't necessarily be signing them up. Why?

1. The players who fall into the "can't miss category" like Jabari Parker may not appreciate the notion that Beilein could teach them something - improve their game in some important way. They may be at a school just to network, getting some playing time and experience but actual improvement isn't their top priority.

2. There may be a whole host of peripheral issues which other posters have commented on - shoe camps, shoe brands, "friends and family advisors", and who knows what else - because we as much older people looking back on our decision may not appreciate that some kids don't take a very long term calculated view - otherwise we'd see many fewer pro athletes running into problems in their off field lives.

3. The lack of TV impact / Buzz - Again, as an older person, I greatly appreciate John Beilein, but for many kids they may not appreciate how he could help them. He isn't flashy; he doesn't dress in sharp suits or looks like he could have walked out of a movie set or tries to be current or hip. These actions of being true to himself is appreciated by some families and many fans but for 16-18 year old kis may just seem dull and boring. He isn't a household BB name like dare I say Izzo, Calipari, Pitino, Coach K, etc.

The next few years should be interesting. So far he has shown he can develop guards and wing players - if he can develop any of the big men then he'll have many more people show up. Look at what Pete Newell did for NBA caliber big men during the time when low post play was big - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pete_Newell If Beilein starts producing big men who can play low and high and stroke 3's he'll have a steady stream of talent.

Flip it around and who do think he'd like to see play for him - someone who is there to mark time, get some PT and move on or someone who wants to learn and improve and is willing work for it?