CC: What if Brandon survives?
Slow Friday, so I thought I would throw out this topic for some general discussion / speculation:
Up until now, I think that many of us have assumed that DB would be fired at some point soon. Perhaps not this week, but certainly in time for the new AD to fire Hoke and bring in a new head coach. And it is still a possibility that DB will, in fact, be fired by President Schlissel. But, the MGoBlue.com press release about DB working closely with CSG to address issues and the announced cut in studen ticket prices call that assumption into question. If DB was going to be fired, it seems as if Schliss wouldn't allow him to take this public role. So, we need to consider that he may survive.
Which leads to my question. If DB manages not to get canned, how does that realistically impact whether Hoke is retained? Let's assume for the moment that we finish the season at 7-6 (we beat Indiana, Northwestern and Maryland, but lose to our rivals, make some crappy bowl and muddle to a win). What happens?
My personal view: If Hoke loses to both rivals, he is gone, even if DB is making the decision. The fanbase discontent would be insane. DB, himself at the center of some of that discontent, would do what just about any political person would do, and try to place the blame on someone else while at the same time painting himself as part of the solution by firing Hoke and bringing in a big name coach.
For DB, if he plays it right, this could actually save him. Sure, many current students and alum hate the guy. And while some have principled reasons for doing so (ticket prices, commercialization, etc.), if we are being honest, many want him gone because the football team sucks. If Brandon were to go out and somehow convince a Harbaugh / Miles level coach to come here (while cutting ticket prices and stopping some of the noodle, skywriting, special K stuff that has annoyed some of the fansbase), I am pretty sure the Fire DB chants would quickly end, or be reduced to a small minority of the fanbase. So, I guess my short answer is that unless he beats MSU and/or OSU, Hoke is gone.
What say you, MGoBloggers?
October 17th, 2014 at 11:36 AM ^
If Brandon stays, there either won't be a "CC", or there will be and it will stand for "Cam Cameron".
October 17th, 2014 at 12:14 PM ^
a little bit.
October 17th, 2014 at 11:37 AM ^
from the OP - "If Hoke loses to both rivals, he is gone, even if DB is making the decision".
Do ND and Minnesota no longer count as rivals? Because Hoke got smashed in those rivalry games. He's going 0-4 in rivalry games this year.
October 17th, 2014 at 11:51 AM ^
I was alluding to our primary remaining rivalry games, but sure if you count those, 0-4. Not sure how he could be retained with that record.
October 17th, 2014 at 11:39 AM ^
If Brandon stays, I think Hoke stays if he can at least get to .500 and look competitive against OSU and MSU.
If Brandon stays and Hoke ends up below .500 with some blowouts losses sprinkled in, I think he’ll be forced to make a move. But as others have mentioned, several top names/potential candidates have stated they will not come if Davey B. is here. I think this is the worst case scenario as I think Hoke’s replacement in this situation would be underwhelming.
October 17th, 2014 at 11:46 AM ^
Ugh. At what point does acceptance of moral victories end?
Not saying your post represents your hope, but I hope that really isn't the mindset.
October 17th, 2014 at 12:06 PM ^
Nope, it's not what I personally want or would accept, I just have a feeling that Hoke would be back even at 6-6. I'm actually scared of this because 2015 was targeted as a year that this team should really start to take off, no excuses. I thought we'd see glimmers of that this year and maybe win 8-10 games. It's been a failure up to this point, so my hopes and optimism for next season under Hoke would be extremely diminished.
October 17th, 2014 at 11:57 AM ^
I'd take the prospect of an unknown underwhelming over our known underwhelming.
That said, I believe are coaching prospects will be far from underwhelming.
October 17th, 2014 at 11:59 AM ^
No way.
Read my post above. Hoke needs to walk all over MSU and Ohio to stay. Currently he is a boat anchor tied to Brandon and he will cut that rope if necessary.
I have no doubt he has laid out a 6 month proposal on how to correct the ship at Michigan. Not only to save his job, but that was probably asked of him by the President -- sound management. In that discussion there had to be a major section on the leadership of the football team now and going forward. My expectation it was not good for Coach Hoke.
October 17th, 2014 at 12:37 PM ^
I think Hoke stays if he beats both MSU and OSU. First year in Nuss offense, OL issues from RR, last of RR recruits graduating, etc. Do I think we beat both MSU and OSU? No, because I think Hoke is incompetent and should be working for the CDC.
October 17th, 2014 at 4:16 PM ^
It's wholly unsurprising that you have bought into the incredibly stupid nonsense re: ebola.
October 17th, 2014 at 12:28 PM ^
October 17th, 2014 at 1:17 PM ^
People, many who want DB gone for other reasons than his ability to hire a head football coach, have stated that several top candidates will not come because DB is here. These people have offered no proof whatsoever to validate these statements. These people, however, have fueled the masses ire towards DB by making these statements not backed by fact.
October 17th, 2014 at 2:05 PM ^
John U. Bacon is pretty damn plugged into these things. It's very easy to imagine him having contacts in the Harbaugh camp(s).
October 17th, 2014 at 2:16 PM ^
Did Bacon say Harbaugh would come if DB weren't here? I highly doubt he did.
It's also very easy to imagine that Bacon has another agenda given that DB revoked his press pass. And we actually know that DB revoked his press pass. We don't know that Harbaugh would come here if DB weren't here.
October 17th, 2014 at 2:17 PM ^
...he has at least strongly implied that Harbaugh would never coach for Brandon. He may have even flat-out said that. I can't find the quote at the moment.
October 17th, 2014 at 2:24 PM ^
Let me know if/when you find the quote. I'd also be interested if he said that Harbaugh would coach here if Brandon was gone.
I doubt he said Brandon would coach here if Brandon was removed because that is something that could come back to bite him. Which implies that Bacon is choosing his words wisely to fuel the ire against DB.
October 17th, 2014 at 2:29 PM ^
IIRC, he's said nothing more or less than that Brandon's presence precludes Harbaugh's. And that's bad enough given everything else that Brandon brings to the table. Harbaugh may be a longshot, but I think most people would be more than happy to be rid of Brandon in order at least have the possibility of adding him.
October 17th, 2014 at 2:46 PM ^
I asked for a cite: link to a podcast, quote, etc. I'm not surprised you haven't found one.
October 17th, 2014 at 3:07 PM ^
that you are the type that DEMANDS facts, yet doesn't require the same for himself.
Here is a rehash of what people have said.
In regards to Bacon and Harbaugh
- Many people have spoke to Bacon, who has spoken to Harbaugh. Bacon has relayed that Harbaugh may have some interest in coming to Michigan (roots, love of Michigan etc). This is not a gaurantee that he will come, but there is a zero chance that this is a possibility if Brandon is here. There appears to be other AD candidates that could increase the possibility of him coming here.
In regards to Beilein
- Beilein probably doesn't have a problem with Brandon, but that doesn't mean that Brandon is good for Michigan. Football and Basketball are vastly different at Michigan. Beilein started here with half empty arenas and a decade plus absense from the big dance. Before he raised expectations, getting to the dance and finishing .500 in BIG play was considered a successful career. There were no traditions that were taken down and Beilein's support from the AD (which he lauded of Martin before him when he told RR to come over) has continued. The fact that you use Beilein not leaving as your main argument for Brandon seems to be the ultimate in grasping at straws.
So how about you prove to me that Beilein would leave if we got a new AD and we could get Harbaugh if we keep Brandon, and I will consider your side.
October 17th, 2014 at 4:43 PM ^
Bacon on the Huge Show. http://www.stationcaster.com/player_skinned.php?s=1431&c=7571
"I've talked to people who know those top three candidates (the Harbaughs and Miles) quite well, and they simply will not come under the current administration." @ 1:53 mark.
October 17th, 2014 at 11:41 AM ^
Don't you have a class to go to? Geeezzzz.
October 17th, 2014 at 11:45 AM ^
Relax - it's a Friday. Also, hate to tell you but haven't you figured out in the two days since you signed up that this is a topic that people apparently are interested in?
October 17th, 2014 at 11:45 AM ^
because at that point Brandon is in control of football still and
- Brady Hoke is retained or
- We do a coaching search and no decent coach is going to want to work for Brandon after the crap he's done and how he threw Hoke under the bus with the Morris Concussion deal -> We hire Scott Loeffler or someone equally stupid
Brandon just has to go. I'd rather retain Hoke than Brandon
October 17th, 2014 at 11:45 AM ^
survive this and try to undo his mess while you quietly go and look for replacements. He is being paid a ton of money anyways.
October 17th, 2014 at 11:45 AM ^
...one to four years of Michigan football. He either keeps Coach Hoke (goodbye 2015) or replaces him with a coach whose stock is so low that he's willing to work with someone with Brandon's track record and ego (goodbye 2015-2018?).
October 17th, 2014 at 11:46 AM ^
You mentioned thinking if Hoke loses to both rivals he is gone. This season actually reminds me of Earle Bruce's last season in Columbus. The guy had gone seven years in a row with 3 losses, and the first poor season he had, he was out the door BEFORE the game. The Bucks came into that game at 5-4-1. At this point, I'd be happy for us to have a winning record going into the game with Ohio, but if we lose to MSU, and we're at 6-5, does a win over Ohio salvage the season and Hoke's job? That puts us at 7-5 and guarantees we're no worse record-wise than last season. The big problem with Hoke's record is the downward trajectory. If he can turn things around in the second half of the season and finish 7-6 or better, I think Brandon keeps him. That's a tall order, though.
October 17th, 2014 at 12:31 PM ^
October 17th, 2014 at 2:20 PM ^
October 17th, 2014 at 11:46 AM ^
The that 'pop' you'll hear will be me opening up a bottle of champagne...
October 17th, 2014 at 11:49 AM ^
rest of his days in AA. Not top tier coach will come here with that crapfest in charge. I will lose interest in even watching games on TV and will probably walk away from college football until he's gone. The man is a cancer and as long as he is here no head coach over a MAC level will come here and we officially become Purdue. If he stays, it's over
October 17th, 2014 at 11:50 AM ^
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October 17th, 2014 at 11:50 AM ^
Hoke survives and DB is fired. Michigan apparently has three strong candidates to choose from for the AD job (Bates, Manuel, Long). Any one of these guys could come in and make the improvements that we've all been talking about ad nauseum, and he plus the administration may feel that some of those changes will have a direct impact on the football program and fan support (better safety and communication, work with and support Hoke, Nuss and Mattison on house-cleaning and revamping the position coaches). This would most likely happen with Long, who I understand is a friend of Hoke's.
And there is no sure-fire replacement out there for Hoke. If there is, fine ... if Mullen wants to come here, or if Miles thinks "it's time." But to me, there is not a tremendously long list of candidates out there who would be better than giving a stabilized Hoke regime one more year. I hate to say that, but the parade of names coming across this site are not all that impressive, and we need a slam-dunk-home-run. Keeping Hoke would hold together most of the recruiting class, the current players remain in the same system with hopefully better coaching (OL, move Manning back to his previous post).
So, the logic may be that a new AD hire can help make the football program stronger. This may sould a little dumb but he may strongly recommend Hoke wear a headset for player safety reasons, and it begins to pay some benefits. Nuss moves up to the booth, maybe they hire a separate QB coach, they've got Drake Harris and Ty Isaac coming on board and Peppers returning healthy.
In that scenario, I'd say there are about 7-8 coaches "on the radar" (meaning, the Harbaughs and Miles and Mullen are just barely on the radar in terms of plausibility, Malzhan and Sumlin are not on the radar) who would certainly come in and bring enough firepower to improve Shane's outlook, toughen up the line play, tighten up game management, enhance strength and conditioning, stabilize and even boost recruiting, and maintain Hoke's decent record of academics and attrition. Below those 8, we're taking a flyer again.
Again, hate to say it. Just trying to be realistic. And btw, eight may be a stretch, but off the top of my head: Harbaugh, Harbaugh, Miles, Mullen ... then it gets dicey. Find three or four more HC's or coordinators. The Rileys, Wittinghams, Mendenhalls and Pattersons are so entrenched. I feel like it's gotta be one of those top four or perhaps someone from the next teir or bust, and anyone from that second teir better come in saying "I know I haven't talked a lot about it, but I have ALWAYS wanted to coach at Michigan." I know that smacks of Hoke's "I'd have walked from San Diego" sound bite but I still think it's necessary. I don't think we ever heard that from Rich Rod (did we?).
So, tl;dr ... with Bates, Manuel or Long waiting in the wings, I think DB's gone. Those three are (by all accounts) the Harbaugh, Miles and Mullen of AD's, and they all seem like they'd actually WANT to come here.
October 17th, 2014 at 11:56 AM ^
You lost me at the headset thing. To me, this is a red herring issue. Optics, but nothing more. Who cares if Hoke is wearing a headset?? He isn't calling the offensive plays - that's Nuss. He isn't calling the defensive formations - that's Mattison. Indeed, most on this blog think that Hoke is a bumbling imbecil, so if that's the case, what exactly do we think that his further involvement is going to add? This is silly.
October 17th, 2014 at 12:34 PM ^
October 17th, 2014 at 1:17 PM ^
Put a headset on him and I guess we'll find out. But you do make a very, very good point, I realize that. I would have not have any expectation that he would even know what to do with a headset on all game, and that's scary. Last year and this year proved that he is one of if not THE worst head coach at managing the clock, timeouts and injuries in the entire game of NCAA football, and he also happens to be the only one who doesn't wear a headset. I get the "optics" thing but this goes beyond that.
But yeah, having a new AD come in a strap a headset to Hoke's noggin would be, obviously, silly.
October 17th, 2014 at 12:00 PM ^
that Hoke has been a bad coach. A new AD won't fix that.
October 17th, 2014 at 1:11 PM ^
in two ways, but both were not very clear, I suppose.
First, my "as much as I hate to say it" disclaimer. I'm not a Hoke apologist. I hate the headset thing and I don't find the incomplete incoherent sentences in press conferences to be endearing at all, among a long list of other things. I thought Rich Rod should have gotten another year and I didn't think Hoke deserved this year but at least Peppers committed, etc.
Second, I am just not thrilled with the list of coaches "ranked" below those top four to eight home run hires. While many of them are probably a better coach than Hoke, a lot of them would simply be change for change's sake, trading a bad coach for a mediocre coach. While that may be an improvement, that's not what we want long term. And even a "good" coach who comes in and replaces the "bad" coach is still going to probably lose some of the recruiting class (we're talking a "good" coach not "home run elite") and will introduce at least somewhat of a new system.
So unless it's "HHMM" (Harbaugh, Harbaugh, Miles or Mullen), I'm very nervous about change. Sumlin, Strong, Malzhan and Patterson were just hired into great situations. Shaw, Gundy, Patterson, Wittingham are all entrenched and in some cases at their alma mater. So that drops you down to the third tier, with Butch Jones floating somewhere between the second and third level. You're down to Chuck Martin or an NFL coordinator or an unproven HC or hot coordinator.
I just don't see that third level -- where we found Hoke -- producing a long-term solution that is better than one more year of Hoke & Co. trying to get their shit together THEN being evaluated and we'll see whose name rises to the top in 2015. Maybe Mullen is more ready to jump then. Maybe Charlie Strong is dumped at Texas. Maybe the Texans fire Bill O'Brien. Maybe another Dan Mullen emerges that we're not thinking about this year because he hasn't yet done anything to prove himself.
That's all I'm saying.
October 17th, 2014 at 11:58 AM ^
I just amazes me what one anemic win over mediocre Penn State and a couple public statements have done. Reality is that Michigan will not be competitive against OSU or MSU. The games against Indiana, Northwestern, and Maryland will be pillow fights, and this horrifically-coached team will find a way to fart away two of them, probably beating Indiana 9-0 thanks solely to their not having a QB. Brady Hoke will have amply demonstrated that he cannot be allowed to lead the team into another season. How DB's fortune cannot be hitched to his is beyond me. I realize that it all comes down to Schlissel, but surely someone who actually knows football must be in his ear.
October 17th, 2014 at 12:23 PM ^
October 17th, 2014 at 11:56 AM ^
Ok, that was probably a little strong. I'm frustrated with what he has done to this football program and University that I love so much. He needs to be gone NOW.
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October 17th, 2014 at 11:59 AM ^
Brandon is now in check. He will be under control. I don't like him but I also think that if we were winning no one would care.
I think Brandon will survive initially and Hoke will be fired 1 day after the OSU game when we fail to be bowl eligible.
Brandon will reverse policies and keep a low profile and be gone in a year or two to "pursue other opportunities" That's how it works in the corporate world at his level.
October 17th, 2014 at 12:37 PM ^
October 17th, 2014 at 11:59 AM ^
Will create an avalanche of hatred for DB and Hoke. I honestly think this is what will be the lever for all changes. If M ends up 8-4, everything cools off. 3-9, you better believe people will be seriously pissed. At 3-9 I think people will demand a house cleaning. I know you are posting an "if Brandon survives" thread, but I truly think this is how it goes. 5-7 to 7-5 being a grey area, where "who knows?"
To answer your Q: Hoke is fired at 5-7 or lower. 6-6 and up IDK. At x<5 wins, you get some retread coach with M ties. At x>5 wins, you get Hoke and insanity ensues.
October 17th, 2014 at 12:00 PM ^
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October 17th, 2014 at 2:06 PM ^
I think the only way Brandon survives long term (if he makes it through the next few months/weeks) is by firing Hoke.
October 17th, 2014 at 6:38 PM ^
If he has any chance of repairing his situation, Brandon must fire Hoke. More of the same will doom both!
October 17th, 2014 at 12:01 PM ^
DB strikes me as the type of guy who has a dossier on every regent.