5 star and top 100 RBs
interesting article from rivals (free content) in the wake of ty isaac joining the maize and blue fold.
since 1997, michigan has had 10 top 100 rbs, and 6 five star-ish types.
the table demonstrates that overall our productivity is not very encouraging. would be interesting to see how comparable programs who have had that many top rb recruits do with their rb results.
interested to see if everyone thinks we've been unlucky, have been poor at player development, or both.
link:
But Drake switched to defense and became a pretty effective safety, some of those guys struggled with injuries, and the jury is most definitely out on Green.
Seems like Kevin Grady is the only true bust on that list and even then there were extenuating circumstances (Mike Hart blowing up, injury, and off field alcohol issues).
If you're using "bust" in the classic sense, then yes. McCall and Underwood could be considered busts as well, I guess, going by recruiting rankings.
a bust. I'd argue a much bigger one than Grady. Baraka never even saw the field - for us or any top division school I believe.
for AT and Fargus for a breif period. Hopefully our luck will change with Ty and/or Derrick.
Of the six 5-stars, the jury is still out on 2 (Green and Isaac), 2 were good (A-Train and Fargas, even though Fargas was good elsewhere), 1 didn't pan out for non-football reasons (Baraka), and one you could call a bust relative to expectations (Grady). I think I'd characterize that as pretty decent success. I don't see any reason why Fargas wouldn't have been good here, so I don't see a reason to count that as "not encouraging" for Michigan's RB recruiting.
Now, if neither Green nor Isaac pans out, then I think we can say that the results are disappointing. But if one of them turns into an A-Train-level success, then I'd take those results any day.
Justin Fargas got tackled it looked like a Chevette being clobbered by a locomotive. He really wasn't cut out for Big Ten play. At least at his playing weight in A2.
Justin Fargas never really met expectations at Michigan. I do, however, remember the monsoon game at Northwestern. That game he was a beast. He was the only RB that did well in the rain that game.
He made it to the NFL but as a Michgan RB he was ineffectve. His best game was almost half his total career yardage. Having the injury and a position switch certainly didn't help him obviously. But as a Michgan RB the most memorable thing about him was the hype and the huggie bear name.
Fargas wouldn't have shown up well for UM as a running back because he was switched to DB after his horrific injury.
I'm glad things worked out for him after he left, it's too bad it wasn't in Ann Arbor.
UM surgeons had done a better job on the first surgery he doesn't acquire a bone infection and require a second surgery. People have either forgotten or just don't understand what Fargas went through in an attempt to get back on the field. What JF needed, and Michigan wasn't willing to give him, was another season to heal and regain his strength. He didn't switch to DB, Carr switched him to DB...if any body was a bust with regards to Fargas it was the coaching staff.
HIs 2002 stats: 715 yards, 4.4 yards per carry, second leading rusher behind Sultan McCullough in both categories. See link.
I don't think Underwood was a bust. He was unfortunately (or fortunately) replaced by Mike Hart.
And if you look at the top 3, Derrick Green is in good company with Fargas and A-Train should he pan out.
which kept him on sideline. Not very good balance,either. Look like beast...fall like tree.
He got a fair opportunity to start and didn't produce. As good as Hart was, I think the coaches would have been willing to spell him a bit if they had other RBs in whom they had confidence.
I think a higher number of Michigan's overall 5-star recruits at all positions have underperformed vs met expectations. Victims of the 'hype' I guess.
By contrast I think we've had a lot of 3 and 4 star guys over perform and become essentially 5 star guys.
To be frank, it feels like Michigan has gotten unlucky when it comes to 5 star recruits for the last decade.
Maybe I'm wrong, I'll look it up right now....
2004 - Chad Henne
2005 - Kevin Grady, Marques Slocum
2006 - Stephen Schilling, Brandon Graham
2007 - Ryan Mallett, Donovan Warren
2008 -
2009 - Will Campbell
2010 -
2011 -
2012 - Kyle Kalis, Ondre Pipkins
2013 - Derrick Green
We're batting .250 on 5*s. Brandon Graham and Chad Henne were the only ones really to live up to the hype. Schilling was solid but not quite elite, as was Donovan
Yeah it's pretty horrid. Let's be frank, there are about 30-35 of these guys a year who are 5 stars. I'd assume 40%+ will be in the NFL, another 30-40% will be key parts of their college football team as leadership players who may not be NFL grade, and 20-30% will be busts. Your hit rate on 5 stars should be better and no just because a 3 or 4 star at the same position does well does not mean your 5 star should not...they should be competing head to head as you see at other premier schools. This is a mediocre track record.
Henne, Graham were successes and I'd argue Mallett was if not for us. Schilling and Warren were nice conference level type of players who were plus players but not shoot out the light types. Grady was a disaster obviously and Campbell was not far behind him - having 1 solid (not great) year is not a success for a 5 star, no matter if he went to the NFL at a different position. It was an underwhelming NCAA career.
Too soon on Kalis and Pipkins but MSU has a walk on LT who was Kalis class and outperformed him by a mile thus far - no excuse for age. Pipkins was robbed early of his sophomore season but I don't see a young Jerel Worthy type there thus far either. Green jury is out but didnt see much flashes last year -I'd expect a pure stud to struggle behind that OL but have 2 carries a game you go "oh wow there it is."
It depends on what you view as a bust or not performing well. I would only view Grady, Slocum, and Campbell as busts. Chad Henne, Shilling, Mallett, and Graham were all good players. They weren't all first round picks and none of them were heisman winners but there's only so many of those in CFB. Even BWC who I consider a bust got drafted. As for Pipkins, the defensive line was pretty good when he was in it early in the year. It was bad without him in the lineup late in the year against Ohio and KSU. I agree with you on Kalis. He should have had more flashes of being a 5 star. Derrick Green showed flashes against NW and Ohio. With the type of RB he, he's not going to have the big 40 yard run that makes you say wow. He's more of a move the pile for 5 yards pound you type of runner who can't be successful if no one is blocking and it's him vs. 7 guys in the box.
Really I only see two busts in there with Slocum and Grady. Will Campbell is kind of a bust but he was pretty productive as a senior. He certainly didn't live up to expectations for his career though. Mallett was awesome at Arkansas. Brandon Graham was awesome. Chad Henne was good. Schilling wasn't amazing but he certainly was a good OL for us. Warren wasn't amazing but he certainly was better than the other CBs we had at the time. He might have been better if he wasn't coached by Tony Gibson.
Well, I think we can call agree that Slocum was a win, mostly for non-football reasons.
But can you call it "unlucky" when you're making the case that it's a decade long trend?
The main problem is that, once again, people put way too much emphasis on star rankings. In the history of Rivals, 47% - that's right almost half- of former 5 star player have gone undrafted: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1938590-whats-the-success-rate-for-5-star-recruits-reaching-the-nfl
Out of the eight 5 stars committed to UM, who have exhausted their elibility, only three have gone undrafted (37.5%) which puts UM as doing somewhat better than average:
2004 - Chad Henne - 2nd Round (Dolphins)
2005 - Kevin Grady (undrafted), Marques Slocum (undrafted)
2006 - Stephen Schilling - 6th Round (Chargers), Brandon Graham - 1st Round (Eagles)
2007 - Ryan Mallett - 3rd Round (Patriots), Donovan Warren (undrafted)
2008 -
2009 - Will Campbell - 6th Round (Jets)
Even removing Ryan Mallet, only drops UM to about average (43%). UM put two players in the first two rounds, which is also right about average (29%).
Even Dononvan Warren was All-B1G, but sadly hurt himself by leaving early and suffered an ankle injury prior to the NFL combine considerably hurt his draft stock, but its hard to call him a "bust".
The reality is that 5 stars are simply not the be all end all that people want to think believe they are.
Not only that, but Id rather have Isaac than not. /s
Fred Jackson has been the RB coach for at least the past 20 years.
What do you folks think about Fred Jackson? Good coach? Getting a bit long in the tooth?
We haven't had a great RB in a while now but that's not really Jackson's fault. We've gone from Lloyd Carr's staff and Mike Hart to a spread offense scheme back to pro style. That's basically been the last 6 years.
Check out the 5-stars listed at any position at any school over the past decade at Rivals or Scout, and you'll see that a sizeable percentage of them have not had what you can call "elite" careers. And there are more than a few 4- and 3-stars who did. You want to recruit the highest-rated guys you can, but simply having five stars next to your name is no guarantee.