Recruitin' Mailbag: In-Staters, Re-Commitments, Running Backs
Of U-M's 2015 decommits, Damien Harris is the most likely to end up in Ann Arbor.
Previously: The Policy And Its Benefits
The two-part recruiting mailbag concludes today with a look at in-state recruiting, the likelihood of Michigan's decommits re-committing, and the outlook at running back.
@AceAnbender #mgomailbag Hi Ace. Which in-state recruits do you believe will Go Blue in the class of 2015?
— craig laluk (@CraigLaluk) May 28, 2014
First off, it's a relative down year for football prospects in the state, with only three players right now earning composite four-star status, though Alex Malzone is right on the edge and should end up there. Adding to the lack of in-state activity, four of the top seven Michigan prospects have already made commitments: OL Kyonta Stallworth (MSU), Malzone, OL David Moorman (Wisconsin), and CB Tyson Smith (MSU).
Michigan isn't in very active pursuit of any of the prospects outside of that top seven; Cass Tech DE Joshua Alabi is ranked #8, and while he holds a Michigan offer, Michigan State and Tennessee have been at the forefront of his recruitment for a long time now. Nobody ranked below him has received an offer or much interest; the only player down there I could see getting a late offer is Oak Park ATH John Kelly, who might get a harder look after the Shaun Crawford decommitment—MSU offered him at corner, and that's a pretty solid endorsement.
That leaves the two top players in the state—Saginaw ATH Brian Cole and Cass Tech RB Mike Weber—and a Michigan legacy at #6 in Southfield OLB Tyriq Thompson. I won't sugarcoat here: there's a distinct chance all three end up in East Lansing. Cole's been high on the Spartans for a long time, Weber's strongly considering them, and Thompson's recruitment has gravitated towards MSU despite his U-M ties.
With that out of the way, Michigan also has a legit shot at all three, and their cause would be helped greatly by a season this fall that at least shows the program is getting back on track. Cole and Weber have both shown more interest recently, especially Weber, who seems very open to the idea of playing in Doug Nussmeier's offense. Steve Lorenz recently posted that Michigan is pursuing Thompson as hard as any recruit on their board, and it could very well be a 50-50 tossup right now. I think Cole ultimately ends up at MSU, but I like Michigan's chances with Thompson. As for Weber...
@AceAnbender most likely to commit at RB weber, Harris, Patrick, someone else and whom? #mgomailbag
— Jeremy C. Anderson (@the_ASGroup) May 28, 2014
...I think he's the most likely to end up in this class, both among the top in-state prospects and the current running back targets. The Wolverines have really trended well with him since the change in offensive coordinators.
Jacques Patrick is going to be really, really tough to pull out of Florida; right now, his 247 Crystal Ball is at 97% for Florida State and 3% for Miami, and he holds offers from just about any powerhouse program you can name. Michigan at least will have him on campus when Patrick is in the area for the Sound Mind Sound Body camp next month, but they have a lot of ground to cover to catch the Seminoles.
As for Harris (man, I'm nailing these segues)...
@AceAnbender Realistically do you expect to get any of our decommits back? #mgomailbag
— Eddie Xiao (@edxiao) May 28, 2014
Not really, though there's still some optimism about Harris—this is much more opinion than anything else, as Harris has said all the right things since his decommitment, and he clearly has genuine interest in considering the Wolverines again.
That said, Ohio State is making a move, the Alabama/Auburn/FSU/USC-types are sniffing around, and we can't even rule out in-state Kentucky. Just based on the number of schools—and very good football programs—Harris is still seriously considering compared to Weber, I think the latter is more likely to end up in the class. While it wouldn't shock me if Harris ended up back in the fold, re-commitments are the exception, not the rule.
There's no such optimism when it comes to George Campbell or Shaun Crawford at this point. Crawford canceled his planned Ohio State visit for this weekend; a commitment to Notre Dame is imminent. Campbell, meanwhile, appears ticketed for either Florida (the presumed favorite) or Clemson (always a dark horse, and he could reunite with former East Lake teammate Artavis Scott), and his decommitment from Michigan coinciding with his uncle taking over command of his recruitment doesn't bode well.
@AceAnbender have you seen my sunglasses #mgomailbag
— Bry Mac (@Bry_Mac) May 28, 2014
What have we told you about stealing people clothes, BiSB...
I'm going to be so confused if he commits to OSU or Kentucky.
I distinctly remember him being pretty anti-OSU and anti-spread before originally committing here the first time. He said something like, "real teams don't run from the spread" or something to that gist. Same deal with Kentucky being an actual threat there, I can see the appeal of wanting to turn around your local team and all.. but they've had back to back 2 win seasons I think and can't even beat WKU. They're going to be lucky to win 3 this year, and are just plain awful. Plus their football fans are pathetically bandwagon, he'd be playing in front of half-empty stadiums every home game, and even emptier ones once basketball gets close.
If he's going to "not Michigan" he should at least pick a school like Alabama or FSU.
Michigan commit Tyree Kinnel was just recruiting RB Damien Harris on the sidelines. #OSUNFTC
— Tom VanHaaren (@TomVH) June 1, 2014
Michigan DB commit Tyree Kinnel #OSUNFTC https://t.co/oJd5IataZp
— Tom VanHaaren (@TomVH) June 1, 2014
insiders whose word I tend to trust on recruiting say Harris is likely to get back in the fold eventually. Not guaranteed, but we are still presumed to lead and have a good chance.
Sam Webb and a couple other Scout.com midwest insiders
Wow, that's about as good a source as it gets on this matter. I feel quite a bit better now about that recruitment, plus it would soften the blow of potentially losing Weber to a rival. Under Hoke, Michigan has typically had one or two big-time blue-chip players in each class (Kalis / Pipkins, Green, then Peppers); Mr. Harris would fit the bill of carrying on this new little tradition nicely.
I think this comes down to how hot the seat is for Hoke after this season. I think Harris wants to go to M, but doesn't want instability/uncertainty, which is totally fair given his pedigree as a recruit. It seems pretty clear from the interviews and tweets that his Mom wants him at M and that's always the best sign.
I know this is just your opinion, but I hope this is true. That means Harris commitment is 100% in the coaches hands. Win enough in the 2014 season, get a 5 star RB.
Well, I think the players that actually play in the games decide who wins most of the time.
By most, I assume you mean all players not coached by Al Borges?
Except if their name is Malik McDowell unfortunately. He was a virtual lock to Michigan and then 2013 season happened and look how that one turned out. His parents wanted him at Michigan... I want Harris bad, but ultimately it will come down to the performance on the field. If Michigan has another dud or so-so season, Harris is unfortunately off to Ohio. The ultimate tiebreaker is winning because every top school in Division 1 has unbelievable facilities.
I think Ty Isaac is also a factor with Harris' recruitment because then maybe the coaches will only take one RB with this class. Isaac would redshirt because he has to sit out a year, so it would prob whomever commits first b/w Weber and Harris...
Ha, alright, 99.9% of the time it's best.....or 99.8% (Landon Collins's Mom)
He's kind of a wild card in the 2015 RB recruiting IMO. One scenario is the coaches decide to take a max of 2 and the first two to commit get the spots. Of the 3, the guy I'd love to see the most here is Harris. Let's hope Sam Webb's feeling is correct.
Maybe
is all kinds of wrong
I find that image disturbing
If Issac transfers from USC to UofM, how many RB do you think we take in 2015 class? I hope Harris decides to recommit and come to Ann Arbor.
Some people never learn. Jesus.
that little sister that beat our asses 5 out of the last 6 years?
Yes he is referring to that team that beat us 5 of the last 6 years. Won a Big 10 title last year, went to the Rose Bowl, and won said Rose bowl.
/sigh
As much as I hate the "Spartina" and "Little Sister" bs I don't much enjoy the nut hugging on Sparty's record on Michigan over the past 5 years. Look, Lloyd Carr pwned MSU prior to our current difficulties and i expect Brady Hoke to move in that direction starting this year or he needs to start considering updating the CV.
/sigh
Yost was phenomenal.
Now get off my lawn.
It looks like #4 in red has one skinny white arm and one huge black arm.
One common theme I have probably seen come up more times than I can count this off-season... Have a good 2014 season, win a lot of games, and everything should fix itself. But you already knew that
Football participation is down heavily in my area in SE Michigan. Most likely concussion concerns but I did not poll parents. I know our HS was never a football powerhouse but in conversations with friends across many cities it appears youth football participation is down state wide. The state of Michigan just does not produce enough 4 and 5 star players to be nationally competitive. Coaches are forced to go out of state where we are competing against a player's home schools. Alabama, Florida, OSU, Texas A & M, USC and Texas just have a huge competitive advantage. Hoke and Co. have a tougher job than what we think. Not excusing his record but just saying these other coaches don't have to be as good to have better records. I think the administration knows this and to keep up appearances you see the "less than" schedule. Here is hoping our national brand helps our national recruiting to get us better long term. In state recruitiment is now just the gravy.
"MSU offered him at corner, and that's a pretty solid endorsement."
Translation: MSU offered him, and why wouldn't you choose to play corner at MSU over Michigan?
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