Well: What Now?
![Mark-Donnal-1[1]](https://mgoblog.com/sites/mgoblog.com/files/images/Well-What-Now_A5A8/Mark-Donnal-11.jpg "Mark-Donnal-1[1]")
ludicrous photo illustration of Donnal via the Blade.
I'm trying as hard as I can to not go on a rage bender, so let's just move on to the implications for next year's basketball team. They are not good, obviously, but it is also not the end of the world. John Beilein won a Big Ten title with a 6'4" starting power forward; Michigan will live.
Post Situation
Jon Horford's ever-more inexplicable decision to exit as buckets of playing time beckon leaves Michigan with the following options for tall rebounding folks:
- Mark Donnal. Freshman coming off a redshirt; reputed to be highly skilled perimeter big who certainly could play the 4 in a Beilein offense but now slides down to the five. Has a back-to-the-basket game, not that such things are at all relevant in Ann Arbor. Can be a Pittsnogle pick and pop guy; defense questionable. Supposed to be a below the rim type, though Camp Sanderson has endeavored to change that.
- Ricky Doyle. Gangly three-star freshman out of Florida now standing next to Bacari Alexander in an effort to demonstrate that he's a legit 6'10", Doyle has a decent face up game and is reputed to be your standard hard-working blue-collar rebounder. Freshman bigs, though, are not fifth year senior bigs.
- Max Bielfeldt. If only Bielfeldt's body was as large as his calves. Since they're not, the 6'6"-ish Bielfeldt just gets swallowed by actual posts. The first half of the Big Ten Championship game is the most recent example. Will have a role off the bench against certain matchups.
- Random fifth year guy. Nobody on the radar and Michigan's contingency plan in the event of a McGary exit appears to be Cole Huff, who won't be eligible next year if he does end up transferring in and wouldn't be a post even if he got a waiver.
- Random freshman. See previous bullet: Michigan's late offers have been focused on the wing. If Dawkins or Huff does turn Michigan down they would have a spot to go fishing with. Finding someone this late who is both a fit and able to play basketball is doubtful.
So Michigan's going to have to roll with what they've got, it seems: a 6'9" redshirt freshman and a 6'10" freshman plus Max Bielfeldt.
What about the four?
Irvin is not an ideal option at the 4. [Fuller]
Any thought Donnal would spend significant minutes at the 4 is out the window. Michigan's options there:
- Zak Irvin. Irvin saw the occasional stretch at the four a year ago, always when Robinson was on the bench. It seems doubtful Irvin can provide anything more than a few minutes here and there against a decent matchup, as he's far more wing-shaped than Robinson. His DREB rate was the lowest on the team, yes behind even Spike. That's partially roles and whatnot; I think it's also Zak Irvin not being much of a rebounder. Even a Hardaway-like move there does not make him the best option, which means Michigan's in a different place than they were a few years ago. Also, Irvin is going to be needed at the 3 for about 30 minutes a game.
- Kam Chatman. Chatman measured in at 6'8" at the most recent camo basketball all star debacle, so he'd actually be an improvement over Robinson in the height department despite being widely regarded as a wing player. At around 200 pounds that's understandable. Chatman would probably get beat up worse than Robinson did as a freshman, as he's taller and skinnier—going to be a lot of times he gets shoved under the basket when rebound time kicks in.
- DJ Wilson. Chatman's fellow freshman is the truest stretch four Beilein's brought in during his time at Michigan. Depending on who you listen to and what time they scribbled his weight down, Wilson's either the same 200 pounds Chatman is or a skinny-but-survivable 215 at 6'8" or 6'9". Wilson finally had a healthy high school season and used that to shoot up almost fifty spots in the Rivals rankings.
- Guy who looks suspiciously like Zack Novak wearing a fake beard and stovepipe hat. It could happen.
That seems super young
Yep. For the third straight year, Michigan projects to be one of the youngest teams in the country, with a frontcourt that is handing probably 70 of its 80 minutes to freshmen, has no seniors, and will have only one starter who's even a junior. That junior is almost as young as you can be and still be a junior. Kentucky might be older. For real.
This is not necessarily doom. The last two years Michigan has been 342nd and 330th in Kenpom's experience stat*. This did not matter much: no team in the country collected more NCAA tournament wins than Michigan whilst they were idling at the bottom of the table there.
It is something different to have freshman bigs who are not Mitch McGary, though. Bigs are long-term projects best eased into serious time lest they be overrun. Michigan can and will survive—I see Jane is tweeting out modified Forgot About Dre lyrics, which I second. "Surviving" is not what they did the last couple years, though, and we're probably in for a comedown from the highs of the last couple years.
*[Which is just an average of FR/SO/JR/SR weighted by playing time, so that a senior who plays five minutes a game doesn't throw you all out of whack.]
But I didn't want this to happen
Hey, at least the staggering hypocrisy of the NCAA chasing dudes out of school for an infraction that the legal system treats like whatever dude has a really good rationale behind it.
"Whereas the CSMAS rightly focused on the fact that marijuana and other street drugs are not performance enhancing, the committee also recognizes that the universe of sport is special, and the student-athlete is obliged to embrace the spirit of sport."
HAAAAAAAAAAATE
HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAATE
I'ma go build a lego Mark Emmert so I can hurl it off a building.
"the spirit of sport." What exactly does that mean in todays world?
but I think it has something to do with Emmert and a pair of noise-cancelling headphones.
"the universe of sport is special, and the student-athlete is obliged to embrace the spirit of sport."
Unbelievable. You are right that FIFA and the IOC give this four letter group of fucktards a run for their money, but the NCAA? DIAF.
I look forward eagerly to you getting blown the fuck up.
Hypocritical dickbags.
The NCAA is going to be massively overhauled within the next 5-10 years so at least we won't have to put up with this crap for much longer
for sure.
it's all good and we will embrace him.
can you imagine an NBA team not drafting a guy because of a failed weed test?
This should improve his draft profile because it makes it more likely he'll fit in with his new teammates.
That's for sure. With that much youth next year, especially along the front line, expectations have to be very modest. I don't think we'll ever see the B-ball program suffer this much attrition to the NBA/transfers/injuries in a two year period. Just ridiculous. Beilein is doing what he can to rebuild the roster, but there are limits to what can be done this late in the game. Hopefully, MAAR and Dawkins (assuming he commits) will turn out to be diamonds in the rough. And let's hope we can get a 5 in the 2015 class somehow.
Can someone explain to me, the staff's planning to inevitably replace Morgan and McGary?
Now that they are gone, it appears as if there were never a plan in place..... its a total headscratcher.... unless they think both Doyle and Donnal are more than adequate to fill in at the 5... but then what about the 4 ? As its felt in football with the DT's, I wonder where our future bigs are.
Going back to planning.... surely they had to know Horford's discontent the past few years, not to mention his family pleading with him to leave Michigan since he signed... plus, the history of his brother transferring and the inherent success....
This again seems to make me wonder, because I have to think that Horford wasn't fully the plan.
...was to return to the usual design of Beilein's teams through the years, and not really have a 5? The idea was always that the other team's big was forced to defend on the perimeter, either against a smaller player or against a Pittsnogle. I don't think I've ever heard him say it, but I always thought one of the reasons his earlier teams played zone was because an offensive scheme that thrived on forcing that kind of mismatch would mean a defense that suffered from the matchups in reverse if they played man.
April 25th, 2014 at 10:42 PM ^
The whole offense is designed around the concept of an empty lane, with the other team's shotblocker forced to defend on the perimeter. There's hardly a postup anywhere in any of his sets, and the few there are tend to be smaller players isolated on small defenders--a guard makes a shuffle cut and stops at the block.
So, yeah, it's kind of like RR "having to go read option". They've both been running their respective offenses for almost as long as they've been coaching, they've both been renowned offensive coaches for decades, and it's unlikely either one is suddenly going to discover that their entire offensive conception was off base.
need him to do a kitchen table to gym to weight room and back to the table kind of summer.
If you watch his video, he is a high flyer - kid can seriously get up. And get up fast. While Glenn had sick leaping ability that can't be matched, Wilson's ups translate a little better to rebounding because he's quicker off the floor.
But, obviously, he's so so skinny. If he could bulk up a little, he's the X factor I'm banking on to save our season. Thanks, NCAA.
We should thank him for his 4 years contributing to Michigan and be proud of having a thoughtful alum like him. Griping about this and criticizing him is some petty BS. Don't do it.
Our program could REALLY have used him. Too bad for us. But, form the individual perspecdtive, he's making a decision that is totally justifiable. It's a great opportunity for him to get training and guidance from a new coaching staff and make connections at another university and program. Best of luck to Jon.
Completely agree. It wasn't just playing time that made him decide to leave. Coach Beilein's use of bigs isn't likely to change next year, so if Jon wants to play someplace that will give him 8 or 10 back to the basket looks a game, I think that tmakes sense. With his skill set in Michigan's offense, he's looking at being a screener, rebounder, and getting dunks of the pick and roll. He just doesn't have the outside game to do much more in this offense. Beilein's offense is never going to primarily (or even frequently) be initiated out of the low post.
"Jon Horford's ever-more inexplicable decision to exit as buckets of playing time beckon ..."
He was quite clear that he has NBA ambitions, which he believes requires him to demonstrate the back-to-the-basket game required by the league. He needs minutes and isolations to do that. He would get the first one here, but not the second; as Brian noted for Donnal "Has a back-to-the-basket game, not that such things are at all relevant in Ann Arbor".
He might be wrong about his chances at achieving his ambitions, but he'd probably tell you first, he has actual experience assessing himself against NBA stars that we do not (family, camps) and second, that what he was asked to do at Michigan was not indicative of his ability to do what will be asked of him in the NBA. Even if he is wrong, we're really going to call a guy an idiot for chasing his dreams, just because he's putting aside the laundry we root for?
It would undoubtedly be better for Michigan if he had stayed, but he's decided (after four years and a Michigan degree!) that it's not better for him. That seems pretty mature, actually.
Not crap on McGary, but this team has not really had him for any time beyond a 10-ish game run to end the 2012 season. Morgan's loss will be felt, but I wasn't high on either McGary or Horford taking over and filling in.
Beilein and this team will surivive; they're probably a fringe conference contender and a mid-level seed in the tourney. Seems about right to me.
What's amazing to me is if Mitch came back, and we lost GR3, Horford, Morgan, and Nik I still think this team competes for the Big 10 (Mitch is to Kaminsky, Caris is to Dekker, the next 5 are to Wisconsin's next 5) and has Elite 8 potential.
And it sounds like Mitch wanted to come back since he was waiting for appeal. Unfuckingbelievable.
thanks for screwing up what would have been a really exciting race at the top of the conference over the pettiest, stupidest, most out of touch ruling imaginable.
You really deserve exactly the death you're going to get. In a world where the choices are adapt and survive or be stubborn and die, you know which choice that dinosaur is going to make every time.
I agree that is the best-case scenario, but McGary has struggled to stay on the court with injuries and the like since he stepped onto campus, and so I guess I just was not really expecting him to make a huge leap especially after basically sitting out a season with a back injury. I agree that it sounded like Mitch wanted to come back, which just makes the situation that much worse.
I think that if they think Bielfeldt can give them a passable 15-20 minutes per game, it'd explain a lot about why they're not panicking and running around screaming.
Bielfeldt obviously is too short, but when you have a guy who has a solid core and can stretch the floor a little bit, Sanderson may be able to do enough with his leaping ability and whatnot that he can play decently in stretches. This obviously is contingent on Bielfeldt's being in bad position, etc. being a result of not being a regular member of the rotation, since that is fixable.
It's not obvious to me that this will work, since...Bielfeldt will still be 6'6", but if it does, depth does not look like nearly so big of a problem.
According to Coles dad, he has no interest in aquiring a waiver. He wants to take the year to get in the weight room and add some weight, increase his vertical, etc. Coach Sanderson is a big reason why he likes Michigan.
Did anyone else read that article? It noted in JANUARY OF 2013 that the CSMAS thought the ban should be reduced to half a season in addition to their recommended testing changes making it more likely that a positive test occurs. What a surprise that the NCAA, who are like super concerned about the student-athletes y'all, implemented the punitive recommendation of the CSMAS but not the rehabilitative one 18 months later.
We'll have three top 30 guys (Walton, Irvin, Chatman), a pre-season all-american (Levert), and a top 80 guy who had a year to beef up and learn the system (Donnal) starting. Then, an experienced pg off the bench, another top 80 athletic big (Wilson), and two more servicable bigs (Doyle and Beifeldt). If that isn't a contender for a big 10 title next year with Beilein at the helm, then I don't know what is. Wisconsin's line-up may have more experience, but they aren't scaring our line-up.
After seeing Chatman at the Jordan game, I'm feeling good about next year. And good riddance to Horford...he'd be a 15-20 min guy on next year's team by December.
for Ecstacy. which is a quarter of the season. This makes total sense.
Wow. Someday everyone will stop running around screaming at the thought of using something that occurs naturally and comes from the ground. Geez I thought we were largely there. Though it is somehow appropriate and unsurprising that the NCAA maintain this draconian approach.
I'm still looking forward to next year, though. Young, but talented. We still have a lot of good players, with more coming in. It's going to be a lot of fun once again.
April 25th, 2014 at 11:47 PM ^
Poison is natural. And opium poppy (heroin) grows in the ground, too.
But yeah, people are dumb. Weed is safer than alcohol. Oh yeah and tobacco.
This reminds me of the evening back in August 2010 when we learned that Woolfolk badly hurt his ankle and Brian lost his mind for a good several hours. Ahhh memories.
Brian - please don't forget that there are non-white/lower social class people out there who do not have the privilege of the legal system giving them a "whatever dude" on pot. But your point is otherwise taken.
I'm still astonished at this morning's news. We debated the merits of McGary's decision for a month. We never thought the NCAA acting as an arm for the drug war would be a component to this. Whether he was going or not, the fact that the NCAA randomly drops in on players during the tournament for some Schedule I investigating (with a year ban if caught) is beyond sickening.
Unless you have priors, even a law student with a 7-11 license (permission to practice law before graduating law school in certain circumstances, not a person with super slurpee skills) working in a Public Defender's office is going to be able to get you a "whatever dude" on a basic first offender pot charge.
FIrst off, weed is legal where I live. Nobody looks down on anyone smoking it. I don't smoke it myself but who freeking cares. Mitch did not make a poor decision.
I suggest we test the top 100 salaried employees of the NCAA for weed 8 times a year. If they test positive once then an automatic year without salary.
Time to disband the NCAA.
Good luck Mitch we love you!
But they SUCK at development.
They had 3 HS All Americans on that team, 1 SR, 1 JR, and 1 SO + a 5 star big man and went as far as we did, and got punked by our team WITHOUT Mitch by 3 games in the Big 10. With Mitch I believe we sweep them and are in the NC game.
Brandon Dawson has not developed any game outside of 5 feet despite being HS All American. Burke and Morris got to the NBA in 2 years each... while HS All American Appling is going to be there maybe as a 2nd rounder, after 4 years. Gary Harris had a worse shooting % and 3 pt % as a SO than he did as a FR, despite Payne taking a lot of attention away from him - meanwhile Nik as the #1 option for UM improved his shooting stats. And Payne was a 5 star big man, of which almost every one in the country goes to the NBA after 2 years - he stayed all 4 years. Since they sucked at developing him in year 1-2.
Denzel "stupid antics" Valentine was rated just the same as Nik S out of HS. Nik became an NBA player in 2 years. Valentine will be a 4 year Izzo player and CBS will slobber over his fucking knob in 2 year as a 4 year senior for how great he is when he should have been in the NBA this draft or the one in 12 months. And they will talk about how great Izzo is for what he did with Valentine. Blah blah.
All Izzo is "GREAT" at now is slow development and keeping his 4/5 stars for all 4 years and sending very few to the NBA. Yes a great tourney coach but he has sent 1 player in 8 years to the NBA early. His last NBA guys were Ager and Shannon Brown in 2006 - big woop. We have as many early entries in the past 2 years as he has in 19.
And now he is going to replace all these HS All Americans with 3 stars since he missed out on Parker and missed out on a bunch of top 20 guys like Cliff Alexander. He is still a good coach who does well in March but if Beilein had the benefit of 70% of his team being upperclassmen he would "de-pant" Izzo year after year.
After going through all the McGary to NBA information, and being able to keep my cool, I just noticed a tid bit that has my head whirling around in several directions. Maize and Brew said in its summary that Mitch was randomly selected for testing because he dressed for Michigan's last game. WHAT THE WHAT?! Maybe I'm over-interpreting this, but does this mean that if he shows up for the Kentucky game in a suit instead of a uniform he is not subject to testing?! Everyone in the building knew he was not playing. This was a gesture just in case the Regional Finals was his last game before going pro. Was his clothing choice for a game the only thing that got him tested, and thus forced out of college basketball for next season?
Oy! And also ve! Could our luck (short of a chartered plane with a team aboard crashing, God forbid!) possibly get any worse?!
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