Some Pairwise chat before the Duel in the D
Michigan's road win in East Lansing jumped them all the way to #20 in the Pairwise rankings, with the bubble in reach. However, it is still quite the uphill climb to get to at-large territory, and tonight's matchup is especially huge for multiple reasons:
- Besides the fact that it's Sparty, and it's the Duel in the D, Sparty is one spot behind us in the Pairwise, so we would drop below them with a loss. The loser of this game (if there is one) may have to win out in the final two weekends and go deep in the B1G tournament to get an at-large spot.
- Neutral and road wins have a larger RPI impact than home wins, so next weekend's home series with Notre Dame won't give Michigan as much of an opportunity to move up.
- A win would vault Michigan into 3rd place in the B1G, 3 points behind Penn State and final regular season opponent Minnesota. Minnesota and Penn State face off next weekend, so if they manage to split their points, Michigan could catch them both heading to the final weekend. That top spot is important, with home ice throughout the tournament on the line.
- Even with a significantly higher RPI ranking, Michigan is currently losing its Pairwise comparison with Michigan Tech by virtue of having lost the GLI championship game and having a worse record against common opponents, one of whom is Michigan State. A win over Sparty tonight would flip that comparison, but anything else would lock the comparison up in Tech's favor until the conference tournaments begin.
There are 16 teams in the NCAA tournament. Of those, autobids will go to at least one (Atlantic Hockey champ) and probably 1-2 more teams that are not currently in the top 16, so Michigan will need to get to around 13th in order to be safe. Notably, the B1G is getting perilously close to being a 1-bid league because the teams are beating each other up and are mostly ending up just on the wrong side of the bubble. Unfortunately, the current RPI gap between #20 Michigan and @19 Providence is larger than the gap between Providence and #13 Ohio State, so even with a win tonight you probably wouldn't see Michigan's Pairwise spot change, but it would be a huge step closer to the target.
It was unimaginable back in December that Michigan would even be thinking about the NCAAs, but they've been on fire for the last six weekends and have put themselves in position to make some noise in March.
February 17th, 2020 at 2:08 AM ^
Good thing this huge game at a fancy NHL arena is on a prime night when thousands of fans will be eager to drive into the city and pay for parking.
February 17th, 2020 at 7:32 AM ^
There is parking around for $1 per hour if you walk a few blocks.fyi. Great time
February 17th, 2020 at 7:58 AM ^
Need to just cancel the Duel in the D and put that game back on campuses.
LCA is absolute crap with zero appeal. Feels like a mall with an ice rink in the middle. Zero prestige that the Joe had.
Just my opinion tho.
February 17th, 2020 at 9:18 AM ^
Meh.. if the Wings/Pistons start winning it will get better. Hard to like a new barn if your team sucks.
February 17th, 2020 at 9:21 AM ^
Eh, the Lions sucked and most people still liked the Silverdome.
I personally don't care for LCA. I haven't seen the Wings or Pistons play, but I went to a concert there. Nothing about it struck me as very unique, impressive, or fan friendly.
February 17th, 2020 at 10:24 AM ^
Other than the fact that you can go take a piss and get back to your seat without hardly missing any game time. At the Joe you would miss half a period.
February 17th, 2020 at 10:52 AM ^
Who liked the Silverdome?? What an ugly pile of concrete. The only thing that made that place tolerable was Barry.
Gotta be nostalgia talking.
February 17th, 2020 at 11:18 AM ^
I think it's the same as missing Riverfront Stadium (Cincinnati) or Three Rivers (Pittsburgh). They were cool in their day, but definitely showed their age when newer ballparks came up.
I always thought Tiger Stadium was timeless. I think if the Corktown revivial would've started in the 90s, they might not have left The Corner.
February 17th, 2020 at 1:53 PM ^
Put me down as someone who doesn't really care about looks of a stadium. The Joe was awesome because the suites were up top so regular fans weren't pushed up into outer space like at LCA. Same with Tiger Stadium and the Silverdome. Those places were designed for the common fan.
February 17th, 2020 at 10:23 AM ^
Your opinion is faulty, so I'll fix it for you:
The Olympia >>>>>>> JLA>>The PizzArena
February 17th, 2020 at 12:19 PM ^
The only reason a lot of us like the Joe was because 1) the history - the Wings won so much there over the years, and 2) we grew up going to games there so it was nostalgic and comfortable. You have to have good teams to build history at your arena and unfortunately it hasn't happened yet. I think once the Wings get back to the playoffs The Slice will be rocking.
February 17th, 2020 at 7:58 AM ^
This took some thought to figure out you weren’t talking basketball.
February 17th, 2020 at 10:10 AM ^
Clue is "pairwise" refers to hockey rankings for NCAA tourney.
February 17th, 2020 at 8:29 AM ^
Great analysis. Just pointing out that while we're behind Penn State in the standings, they've played 2 more games than us. Michigan still controls their destiny in terms of a Big10 championship.
February 17th, 2020 at 11:20 AM ^
Even better, they’ve actually played 3 more games than us. Tonight’s game will finish our weekend series and bring us to 2 games behind them.
February 17th, 2020 at 8:42 AM ^
read an estimate that they are a 25% chance to make the tourney.
Have to almost run the table - like 6-2 or 7-1 to finish out including the BTT.
February 17th, 2020 at 11:19 AM ^
That seems like a significant improvement from just last month. Hopefully that's good momentum for next season if it's too late to get us postseason hockey this season.
February 17th, 2020 at 9:06 AM ^
A loss tonight would be devastating to their chances and would put them in a spot where they would probably need to win B1G tourney to get in. Get tonight’s game and they will put themselves in a good position to make a run at an at large spot
February 17th, 2020 at 10:17 AM ^
It's almost better to be the B1G 2, 3, or 4 seed than 1, since the 1 gets a bye but the rest get a home series to get to more RPI-boosting wins. Yeah, if you're the 1 you only have to win 2 home games to get an auto-bid, but that seems like a risky play - you're in single elimination plinko territory. Of course, winning the remaining regular season games might be enough to get into safe pairwise territory, regardless of what happens in the B1G tournament.
February 17th, 2020 at 3:33 PM ^
If they get the 1 seed that probably means they won 4 of 5 and they will be in. Getting the 2 seed would be worse than 3 or 4 though due to playing Wisconsin at home which gets you nothing.
Either way though I think it’s 1 seed or they have to win the tourney.
February 17th, 2020 at 3:46 PM ^
The problem with that is that, with the #2 seed, a home series against Wisconsin does little to boost the RPI even with a sweep, and winning 2 out of 3 might be a net loss because home losses are given 50% more weight in the RPI than home wins. Wisconsin might be a distant 7th in the league, but they gave Penn State a tough weekend, getting a split in two one-goal games, so they're no gimme.
Plus I'd rather hang a regular season banner than not hang one.
February 17th, 2020 at 11:16 AM ^
I don't think an at-large bid is going to be realistic. Winning the Big Ten and then winning both tournament games is their most likely avenue if they want to get in.
February 17th, 2020 at 2:46 PM ^
An at-large bid is definitely realistic though.
February 17th, 2020 at 11:47 AM ^
Completing the sweep against Sparty and a sweep of ND will move Michigan from 20th to 15th in the Pairwise rankings.
1North Dakota
2MSU-Mankato
3Cornell
4 (6)Boston College
5 (4)Minnesota-Duluth
6 (5)Denver
7Clarkson
8Massachusetts
9 (10)Penn State
10 (13)Ohio State
11Arizona State
12 (16)Minnesota
13 (12)Bemidji State
14 (9)Northeastern
15 (20)Michigan
February 17th, 2020 at 12:30 PM ^
I’m still trying to wrap my head around ASU being competent at hockey.
February 17th, 2020 at 12:39 PM ^
Honestly, it makes sense to me. The rest of the small schools in D1 hockey will take great offense to this, but most of D1 hockey is a bunch of whodats. Even some of the better recent teams out on the plains like Minnesota State and St Cloud are going to be unknowns outside of the college hockey universe. ASU is a well known school in a nice climate. It might be tough to beat out a kid recruited by North Dakota, BC, etc. but they should be able to out recruit most of the smaller cold weather schools
February 17th, 2020 at 12:43 PM ^
There are plenty of reasons. It's a huge school with the resources to compete, probably more than any except Big Ten, North Dakota, and maybe the Boston schools. It's not tied to a conference so they can schedule however they want, and they're not blocked by traditional powers in a conference. If you're a recruit, ASU is very attractive. There's more talent in California now and ASU is the closest D-1 hockey school.
February 17th, 2020 at 3:04 PM ^
Technology + kids of parents who moved to the desert to get out of shitty winters.
Plus, ASU is a huge party school and there is always the debauchery of past ASU cheerleaders to consider.
February 17th, 2020 at 12:31 PM ^
Also the last weekend is @Minnesota, where a split would actually improve our standing. I think finishing the season 4-1 would put us tentatively in the field pending the conference tournaments. Part of what I was saying in the OP was that a win tonight won’t improve our ranking, but would put us within range of the bubble, while a loss would be pretty devastating to our at-large hopes.
February 17th, 2020 at 12:17 PM ^
Tournament or no, I'm really excited to see this late run.
February 17th, 2020 at 12:42 PM ^
I'm not getting my hopes up for the tournament, it's just such a steep hill to climb and Shawn Hunwick isn't walking through the door. It is very nice to see the team improving though with a few dynamite classes coming in over the next few years. This team could get back to the late 90s / early 2000s in the not so distant future
February 17th, 2020 at 1:24 PM ^
You’ve heard of Strauss Mann, right? Goaltending has been a bright spot this season. Not taking anything away from Hunwick, but goaltending hasn’t been as large a concern as other things this season.
February 17th, 2020 at 1:47 PM ^
Yeah not trying to take anything away from Mann. I just mean the Hunwick team run was so incredible, that I'm skeptical I'll see Michigan hockey pull that off again. That team made the Frozen Four* in Detroit after being lifeless half the year....so maybe the stars are aligning again....for us to be epically screwed in the regional final
February 17th, 2020 at 2:54 PM ^
Okay but Mann has essentially the same saves percentage (.001 higher than Hunwick) and basically the same goals against average (.03 higher).
So “Hunwick” May not be walking through the door, but our current goalie is posting essentially identical numbers
February 17th, 2020 at 6:07 PM ^
This pairwise crap makes my head hurt. Is it a legit way of making comparisons between teams? From reading the OP it sounds like pairwise hurts conferences that have good teams that beat each other. Imagine pairwise for B1G basketball this season.