What to expect from Michigan in Peach Bowl?
Thoughts?
Is it possible that Michigan comes out and start passing way more in this bowl game (vs during the season) as it portends to 2019 going more air raid? I remember Rudock throwing for ~300 yards and Chesson burning their NFL corner. Basically, only way to catch up to and beat OSU would be with elite passing imho. Great back would help but elite passing from elite QB (which Shea can be I think) to elite receivers (healthy Black and seasoned Collins and DPJ). Offense taking another step in 2019 to being top 10?
Hoping for a Clemson formula of having a great QB to equal the unfair (see numerous threads past tow days sans Hill flip) advantage other schools have.
December 10th, 2018 at 10:23 AM ^
I expect the team to come out slow, flat, & uninspired. Though that may still be enough to beat Florida.
December 10th, 2018 at 10:24 AM ^
Don't do this to yourself. Michigan is not going to "start passing way more" in the bowl game. Even when Harbaugh had Andrew Luck, he wasn't pass first. He has never been a pass first guy. And if there is one thing we know about Harbaugh it is that he intends to out stubborn everyone.
Harbaugh will make changes for 2019 but I very much doubt being pass first will be one of them. Particularly given the match up, he won't do it in the bowl. This game is going to be an ugly grindfest.
I suspect that in the offseason Harbaugh will modernize the offense, hopefully including more effective use of the WR, but he is not going to abandon the run game. I also think that there is a reason why WR use has been so inconsistent. We don't know what it is but I think we must entertain the possibility that maybe the WR aren't as good as some think they should be yet.
December 10th, 2018 at 10:49 AM ^
As my Grandfather used to say "law of averages" we are do for a loss to Florida.
December 11th, 2018 at 12:23 PM ^
Did you your Grandfather also say "small sample size?"
December 10th, 2018 at 10:49 AM ^
Offensively: More passing. Short quick routes, screens, WR screens, more utilization of Evans as a slot/receiving RB (which is becoming even more prevalent in the NFL and would be a great way to sell more of the shifty backs). Basically make a defense defend the entire field and not just run it between tackles. Personally, I don't feel as though we need a change to our formations at all, just a large change to play calling and overall game plan.
Defensively: I want to see us run more of a multiple defense. Start working on a zone that we can deploy to stop teams that want to run slants all day on us. It has been noted all year by several announcers in the NFL and college, the pick routes make it exceedingly hard to cover slant routes in man to man.
December 10th, 2018 at 11:06 AM ^
Aggressiveness, creativity, and triumph.
December 10th, 2018 at 11:11 AM ^
and line Chase up as a FB or TE and let him get a shot at the endzone...... I think he's earned that.
December 10th, 2018 at 11:13 AM ^
Ugly 16-10 win
December 10th, 2018 at 11:14 AM ^
Seems like a number of guys will sit this one out. So a lot of guys will start for the first time.
I hope they will bring a passion and energy to this game that it otherwise might not merit.
I'm concerned by a flat Michigan performance. This might help alleviate that.
December 10th, 2018 at 11:20 AM ^
I expect the team to come out flat and play very uninspired the entire game. Oh, and lose. So then we have like 0 momentum going into next season and it's going to be a struggle.
The OSU fiasco is going to cost this team going forward I fear.
UF - 42
UM - 17
December 10th, 2018 at 11:24 AM ^
I fully expect Florida to not be the team that Michigan has crushed the last two meetings and I actually expect them to beat Michigan for several reasons i'll list below.
#1- The OSU loss in the fashion it happened is a HUGE mental mountain for any team to rebound on.
#2- Several key Michigan players will not be playing as they move to NFL. This is their choice and for the money I will say a rather wise choice. These players are NOT easily replaceable.
#3-Don Brown and Pep Hamilton will NOT change any schemes. They are BOTH arrogant and in their arrogance are totally easy to predict. Pep Hamilton- Run, Throw, have to throw on long 3rd down and it will be a two man route for 10-12 yards in the same area as our WR studs are never utilized properly. Patterson will be under center just like the 80's. Defensively/ Man coverage/blitz crazy leaving the underneath curls/slants and crossers WIDE OPEN as our Db's get washed in the rubs and have to play catch up 20 yards downfield.
#4- The Dan Mullen factor. Mullen is an Urban Meyer disciple. Been with him everywhere Urb has been except Columbus. Mullen is a winner and he turned around a less than average Miss State program. In his 3rd year in Starkville, he beat the total shit out of Michigan in the Gator Bowl. He is a very good coach and has adapted to the way the game is played in 2018. His football IQ left the 1980's when he played in the decade.
#5- Pick- Florida 34 Michigan 23.
December 10th, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^
Right here with you on this mentality - especially points 3 and 4
Mullen is a rising coach and Harbaugh is a falling coach - nationally.
Harbaugh has chosen to follow the '80s school of football coaching and Mullen, like you said, is an UM disciple. The guy adapts with the times and adapts to take advantage of his opponents' weaknesses. Harbaugh does not do that.
This is going to be pretty similar to what we saw in the NTSC bowl game last year
I think this is the beginning of the end for Harbaugh here. His quote about "have big things planned" felt disingenuous and exactly what somehow who is approaching being checked out would say.
This place is going to lose it's collective mind once the recruiting class starts slipping and commits go elsewhere and we lose to OSU again next year (because this is far more than just an Urban Meyer problem. Ryan Day is going to exploit Brown and Harbaugh just as badly)
December 10th, 2018 at 11:42 AM ^
With Gary, Bush and Higdon likely opting out of the bowl game we could struggle a bit.
Good time for the younger guys to step up and fill that void. Hope to see Ross, Solomon, Uche and Paye have good bowl games for the defense. Need to elect bowl game captains.
On offense, hope we see a more dynamic game plan centered on the passing attack ... more 3-wide (DPJ, Nico, Black) and Evans in the flats / wheel routes. I would like to see Ben Mason used more as the power back to deliver the body blows on short yardage plays. When he is more involved in the offense it seems to function better and take on a tougher identity. Would like to see Tru Wilson have a great game in pass pro to help Shea get the ball to DPJ/Nico/Black.
So hoping to get a glimpse of what we can become for 2019 from some new impact players and a more dynamic offensive game plan.
December 10th, 2018 at 11:48 AM ^
Why would anyone think the offense will be any different? The blog was saying all year "they're keeping parts of the playbook hidden for Ohio state". Guess what? We get to the Ohio state game to discover, that's the offense! We'll run Chris Evans into a stacked box twice and then have shea throw to McKeon at 8 yards deep on 3rd and 9. Gotta make sure the defense doesn't play too many snaps and is also under the greatest amount of pressure possible.
This team will never be great until they fire Pep and realize that in this day and age of football you need an elite offense just as much as an elite defense.
December 10th, 2018 at 12:05 PM ^
Good take. How many times has the D covered for a bad O performance? A few at least (a ton if you count last year). How many times has the O covered for a bad D performance? Precisely zero.
Our offensive pacing is predicated on the D being at least "good", if not "great". Unfortunately, the O doesn't have a second gear for when the D slips up - which they did massively against OSU. Too bad the O couldn't cover for them and lead us to a win.
December 10th, 2018 at 12:11 PM ^
Well Ill be there... dropped some big money on great seats so I hope its money not wasted!..Im near Atlanta so im THRILLED about the Peach Bowl...One of my sons is a Wolverine/Gator fan so hes tortured about it..I"ve thrown down the gauntlet! Time to pick your true colors!..Hopefully if " done my job correctly he will be wearing Maize and Blue..But kids these days....
December 10th, 2018 at 12:12 PM ^
It seems pretty obvious that a number (higher than 1) of kids aren't going to play in this game and it feels like this is far more than "trying to protect themselves from injuries."
The OSU game seemed to really cast a dark cloud over this program again, at least from a complete outsiders POV.
And it seems as if the recruits see and feel it too.
I am not expecting a win or even a competitive game really.
I hope JH hasn't lost his grip on the team and kids are starting to check out and tell recruits not to come here and play for him. But it kinda feels like that.
I don't think Florida is a good team and we SHOULD beat them, but there seems to be just too many issues and noise going on right now.
A month ago we were in a fundamentally different place (mentally and physically) and that OSU game just erased it all - so maybe it was never real in the first place.
I am thinking we play the same tired old offense and put up decent defense that lasts until midway through the 3rd quarter, and end up losing 31-21. Our recruiting class falls to about 18th nationally and then get to hear all about JH being on the hot seat all off season.
December 10th, 2018 at 12:21 PM ^
A drop to 18th place in recruiting would be a disaster. However, the early signing period is before the bowl game. Ordinarily, I'd say that's bad but I'm not so sure for all the reasons you listed.
That USC game was absolutely ugly. The OSU game might have managed to be even worse. If they shit the bed against Florida the offseason is going to be filled with hawt takes.
December 10th, 2018 at 12:39 PM ^
At some point, we are what we are. There was always going to be huge recruiting bump from the new coach/Harbaugh effect and that has naturally passed - and now it comes down to recruiting based on results - and why would 5* kids want to come here and go 0-4 against OSU for their careers?
So this is what we are now - an 8-4 to 10-2 northern team, in a talent-poor/shallow state, with pretty crappy weather for 1/2 to 3/4s of the season, who plays a prehistoric offense, and an non-adapting defense that is regularly abused by top tier offenses.
That is a program that will recruit in the teens to high 20s most of the time. 100 programs would kill for that - but Michigan believes itself to be an elite program and this isn't good enough.
So we are what we are the David Wooderson of college football.
December 10th, 2018 at 12:52 PM ^
I'm totally with you as far as Harbaugh's "new coach smell" wearing off. We're not going to land very many (or any) DPJ and Gary types if things stay as-is. If I had a five-star QB or WR son, I wouldn't want them to come here.
However, I think 15-25 ranked classes are way too pessimistic. Going back to 2017, based on 247 team rankings, something in the 15-25 rank puts us in with the Maryland, Oregon, Nebraska type teams. Our 2018 rank was in that range, so it can definitely happen but that was a really shitty season.
If Harbaugh can manage to go 10-2 more frequently than not (which seems maybe doable), I think something in the 10-15 range seems more reasonable.
Regardless of recruiting rankings, one thing is getting pretty clear - whoever shows up here probably isn't going to get their efforts maximized when it comes to on-field play.
December 10th, 2018 at 1:12 PM ^
We were 22nd last season and we are 11th this season, if we don't land Harrison, but land Keegan we will still probably fall from 11th because there are several teams behind us with smaller classes that will see big boosts from adding guys. We add Keegan, but not Harrison, and maybe add a couple other players and we'll be 15th or so this class.
22nd and 15th at Michigan is really poor. Michigan has as many built in recruiting advantages as any school in the country. If you aren't in the top 10 for recruiting every season you're failing at recruiting.
December 11th, 2018 at 12:34 PM ^
I would disagree highly about Michigan's recruiting advantages:
1) Michigan has either doesn't pay players or pays them a lot less than other teams do.
2) Michigan actually expects their players "play school"
3) Michigan won't admit just any great football player, you have to meet some academic requirements above and beyond what the NCAA requires
4) Michigan doesn't have as nearly compliant local prosecutors as other schools, violent football players could actually get charged with felonies
5) Michigan doesn't have as nearly compliant local press as other schools
I think compared to the top 25 (and definitely to the top 10) Michigan is at an even playing field in terms of recruiting
December 10th, 2018 at 12:14 PM ^
I think the mentality of "holding back" the defense, and especially offense, for the big games has blown up in Michigan's face. They might as well come out and show what they have.
December 11th, 2018 at 12:34 PM ^
What did they show in the Ohio State game? Were they holding back for the playoffs??
December 10th, 2018 at 12:20 PM ^
Since we are in a fiery pit of torment at the moment I expect wailing and gnashing of teeth.
December 10th, 2018 at 12:25 PM ^
I don't know think Michigan shows up in this game. It's another cast-of bowl after a severely disappointing loss after riding a huge 10 game wave win streak.
Typically, these are the games the underdog wins. Florida should be a little more inspired, especially after getting shtoinked by UM two times in the last four years, so combine the two and I see a Gator win 33-20.
December 10th, 2018 at 12:27 PM ^
I expect shut-down defense.
On the offensive side of the ball, I expect lots of chunk runs early from Evans and Tru, with 1/3 of the downs being a nice 15-25 yard completion to a variety of receivers, leading to several quick scores early.
Then, in the second half, a mix of more successful running with a whole lot of a healed Dylan McCaffrey making good throws to crisp routes in the short game while trying to keep the ball inbounds. Drives will chew more clock and still be successful.
After putting up 42 in the first half, only 21 on offense in the second half, but bolstered by a defensive or special teams score as well, the game's perfection is only marred by one sad field goal a-la-franklin.
70-3 Michigan
What happened in The Game hurt a ton, but I'm over it. Hope springs eternal. It's great to be a Michigan Wolverine.
Happy Holidays, everyone
December 10th, 2018 at 12:29 PM ^
70-3 Michigan
A glutton for punishment, I see.
December 10th, 2018 at 12:32 PM ^
The pain comes often, and sometimes all-too-sharply, but I enjoy being a fan very much.
I wish more people here did!
December 10th, 2018 at 12:34 PM ^
Now that's the spirit. Go Blue !!!
December 10th, 2018 at 12:34 PM ^
As Always
I expect a M victory.
December 10th, 2018 at 12:57 PM ^
Hear, hear!!!
December 10th, 2018 at 12:53 PM ^
On paper, we should win. But on paper, we should've won the OSU game too. And I think there are going to be a lot of guys on this year's Florida team (and a lot of seniors left over from the 2015 season) who remember the ass whippings Michigan gave them. Wouldn't at all be surprised to see Michigan lose. Michigan is notorious for looking awful in bowl games.
The question will just be which Michigan comes out of the tunnel. If its the version we've seen for the past two years in bowl games where they come out sluggish or implode on themselves, they will lose. If they play their best game, they should win. It'll probably be somewhere in the middle, like a 28-24 kind of game.
My guess is Florida on a late TD drive. My BPONE is at an all-time high with the football program, and I honestly just think Florida is just going to want this game more. Possibly a lot more. Michigan had playoff aspirations, and got sent home from Columbus with its tail tucked between its legs. They don't want to play in the Peach Bowl, and I don't blame them. Florida is in the midst of a rebuilding year, but they're clearly heading in the right direction, stomped all over their rival to end the regular season, and will have a very motivated team trying to avenge the loss to us last year. Another 10-3 season, going into an offseason loaded with more "what if" questions, wasted opportunities, stalled recruiting, and the talking heads continuing the "Harbaugh is overrated, can't win the big one" chatter.
Save us, Beilein. Save us from ourselves.
December 10th, 2018 at 1:01 PM ^
I expect Shea to rip the Goaters to pieces.
December 10th, 2018 at 1:16 PM ^
Pretty simple: not much. Won't be surprised either way.
December 10th, 2018 at 1:31 PM ^
Just hoping to not get embarrassed at this point. BPONE is worse than ever.
December 10th, 2018 at 1:46 PM ^
JH does have a chance here though to change & give hope. Will he do it though ...?
December 10th, 2018 at 3:11 PM ^
No way! We can't put the forward pass on film. That will alert OSU and other opponents of this new style-of-play Harbaugh and company have in development. Too soon.
December 10th, 2018 at 4:07 PM ^
I expect Gary and Long to sit out. Possibly one or two more. Hill should not really be considering the NFL and sitting out. It doesn't sit well with others. Bush will likely play. It is player, family, mentor (agent) driven driven for all of these guys. It's an ugly trend in CFB that the fans, bowls, and teams have to deal with. Money talks.
On the field, I expect a Michigan victory. Florida will fold again.
December 10th, 2018 at 4:15 PM ^
Any coaching change rumblings ? Dan Enos in retrospect was a great hire till he bailed for Bama (like you know every recruit...). Seems like Harbaugh knows what needs to be done , wondering what the off-season has in store to push offense into top 10.
December 10th, 2018 at 4:19 PM ^
I just have to wonder if we were in the same position as, for example: Penn State this season, where they were out of the running for any championship before the season was over AND had a non-exciting opponent for the last game of the regular season. How many draftable players would sit out? How would the reaction within and outside the locker room be considering this is quitting on a conference game? Where does the line eventually get drawn? Many questions and more - all because someone might (only might) be injured.
December 10th, 2018 at 4:20 PM ^
Do we have home uni's for this game?
December 11th, 2018 at 11:49 AM ^
We haven't worn home uniforms for a bowl game in a long time. I think we did for the Gator Bowl, and before that, maybe a Rose Bowl?
I wonder if its just a program choice not to. We were the higher ranked team in each of our last three bowl games, and we wore road uni's in each of them.
December 10th, 2018 at 6:05 PM ^
My expectations
Michigan 27 Florida 23
December 10th, 2018 at 7:15 PM ^
I expect a well played game. Michigan to open up the offense and hopefully some of these posts of what went wrong at OSU, what is wrong with the conservative offense, what is wrong with Patterson underthrowing balls and why can't we play more zone D are put to rest until September.
I like this forum, and really like many of the posts, but we need to start sending out some positive energy to the coaches and players. One recruit won't make or break this team. We have a real nice class coming in. We have coaches that have proven to know talent and able to coach them up. Keep the faith guys, I know 0-4 is hard to swallow, but better days and years ahead.
December 10th, 2018 at 9:44 PM ^
A giant turd. Mullen will have Florida ready. Michigan will come out flat and uninspired as usual. Harbaugh will lose another big game when a lot of the country is watching.
December 12th, 2018 at 7:32 PM ^
Well, not to piss on anyone's parade but the last three years have ended in losses, 4 to Ohio State and two in bowl games. One bowl win in 2015. And now many of the best players age going to sit the peach bowl out. I would submit that Harball's record is less than spectacular, and coupling that with the loss of Bush and Gary et al in the Bowl does not increase my confidence.
Once again I expect that all wolverine fans will approach this game with a large amount of trepidation. But hope springs eternal.