Michigan survives NW Snowflakes Thread
Not surprised the game was close, we always struggle with NW, especially at NW. That being said, thoughts:
- Bench is a massive issue. Brooks came in and did some positive things at the end but Livers was a no show and Davis was a massive negative. Need the bench to improve or some freshmen to develop.
- Collins was pretty aggressive with his decisions (not benching any of his players in foul trouble) and it generally worked for him, but the decision to not guard Z at the 3 point line was his best. Z was 0-5 from 3 in the second half and missed 3 straight during the 15-2 NW run. If he can't make even 30% of his 3's, that might be a strategy we see a lot more often and we might struggle against it.
- Goes back to point one, but yikes to Davis. He does not look like a B1G quality player. Either he or Johns needs to develop ASAP because we can't go all season 7 deep with Livers a backup wing and at the 5.
- That being said, a road win against a decent team at a place we struggle is a positive. Also nice to see us pick up a close win, especially on the road, after blowing everyone else out.
- I definitely thought the last 3 was going in.
Luckily the schedule lightens up, only 4 games before January and it's all body bag games and a mediocre South Carolina team. That's a lot of time to fix the issues we saw today, work towards developing a bench, and get a miracle worker to work with Z maybe?
December 5th, 2018 at 10:58 AM ^
To be fair, Teske was coming off the bench to check in for Davis after that IIRC, so maybe they wanted to pump his tires up for when he subbed in?
As for the first game @ NW since the Pardon buzzer beater comment, they were referring to it being the first game in that building since then. They played in a different venue last year as their current one was undergoing renovations.
December 4th, 2018 at 11:27 PM ^
Maybe I missed it but has someone mentioned how Matthews was completely ineffective? That is worrisome to me. What a great team we have but I hope this an anomaly.
December 5th, 2018 at 12:12 AM ^
He had an atrocious game. 3 points, 1-7 from the field, 2 TOs and 3 fouls. He looked lost and inefficient the entire game
December 4th, 2018 at 11:27 PM ^
Better to be lucky than good.
Great W.
December 4th, 2018 at 11:28 PM ^
Thought the team got to that 15 point lead and let their foot off the pedal. Honesty this win is probably best case scenario to keep everyone focused going into this Lull we have.
December 5th, 2018 at 3:06 AM ^
true. how many times did simpson dribble the air out of the ball after the big lead only to lead to terrible last second shots or TOs (near the 10 min mark). keep running the damn offense!
December 4th, 2018 at 11:30 PM ^
We needed this win. If we’d lost the Chris Collins all on fours gif wouldn’t be funny. I wouldn’t want to live in a world like that.
December 4th, 2018 at 11:30 PM ^
that's Michigans 4th Quadrant 1 win and its only December.
December 5th, 2018 at 7:42 AM ^
How many quadrant 1 losses do we have?
December 4th, 2018 at 11:32 PM ^
We are 7 deep this year. It is what it is, and it won’t change. Livers will be better than this game more games than not.
December 5th, 2018 at 12:13 AM ^
I think we likely see a freshman emerge by the end of the season. Probably DeJulius or Johns
December 4th, 2018 at 11:35 PM ^
Win the Game!
Northworstern Mildcats.
Play outta your minds against some other skools.
Blue Go Blue!
December 4th, 2018 at 11:37 PM ^
I believe Mathews got the autobench after he fouled early in the game. Not sure when he finally came back in but sitting did seem to have an impact on him for the rest of the game.
December 4th, 2018 at 11:38 PM ^
Beilein is probably so damn happy after the game because he actually has things to work on the next few days in practice and wants to get this team better.
December 4th, 2018 at 11:38 PM ^
It was an off night. And we learned to win a close game on the road. It’s all good.
December 4th, 2018 at 11:40 PM ^
I LIKE IT!
Northwestern is always a fucking pain in the ass for us. Love that we pulled that out despite rough nights from key players.
9-0 Go BLUE.
December 4th, 2018 at 11:41 PM ^
1. Having Matthews and Teske both in foul trouble was a real problem and showed our bench depth to be a serious (hopefully short-term) problem.
2. The lineup with Simpson, Livers, and Davis, which was in there for at least the last 2/3 of the big NW run, was an offensive sludgefart. Livers is an offensive asset at the 5 because he can pull the center out and open up the lane for drives. Having Davis at the 5 and Livers at the 4 removes Livers' best offensive asset and rendered him completely ineffective. It also let Simpson's and Davis' defenders sag off of screens to prevent drives, so the only thing available to the offense was Simpson threes. I would have rather seen Brooks in the game, either at PG to improve outside shooting, or with Livers at the 5 and Davis on the bench.
3. Davis has not yet made the jump to be second C in the B1G. He either needs to improve or we need to play some smallball when Teske is out.
4. We could also really use another wing. Livers can't be the backup at the 3, 4, and 5. If one of the freshmen can play 5-10 solid minutes per game in relief of Matthews, then Livers can be the backup 4 and 5, Davis or Johns in to the "emergency 5" role that Davis played last year, and Brooks can back up both the 1 and 2. That's a solid rotation that shouldn't cripple our offense the way it did tonight.
5. Just about everything went wrong tonight, from foul trouble (both legit and not) to terrible shooting to bad decisions to ridiculous opponent shots going in (except the last one). Yet we still won a conference game on the road against a KenPom top 50 team and we are still #5 on KenPom. The rest of December is Improvement Month.
December 4th, 2018 at 11:46 PM ^
Michigan was briefly #4 before the result posted; I'm astonished they stayed ahead of Nevada, but I'll take it.
Still a 15-5 conference projection and outright Big Ten title on KenPom too.
Although if you were on the game thread, you'd have thought this team would never win another basketball game.
December 4th, 2018 at 11:53 PM ^
I've learned to walk away from game threads when things start to go south.
I'm not a fair-weather fan, just a fair-weather game thread participant.
I don't like reading all the defeatist, negative hot takes.
December 5th, 2018 at 12:10 AM ^
This shouldn't have moved the needle much on KenPom. We were only favored by 6 anyway, so any drop should have been incremental.
I was intermittently on the game thread, but I get too agitated to read or post when things are going really bad. I think this game was, long-term, helpful to us, because it exposed the areas that we need to work on, and gave us the experience of winning a close road game. It wasn't going to be 17+ point wins all year, and better that we win the close one than lose it.
This is still a top 2 B1G team, and in the running for a #1 seed, but we don't deserve that #1 spot if we don't develop a stronger bench. Thankfully, in-season player development is something Beilein has always done well (Levert, McGary, Walton, etc). Just need one, maybe two freshmen to give us a good 5-8 mpg contribution and we can make another deep NCAA run.
December 5th, 2018 at 12:16 AM ^
Yes, but the margin between teams #3-6 is razor thin -- currently, +26.97, 26.79, 26.52, and 26.43.
December 5th, 2018 at 12:27 AM ^
I know this is overly simplistic, but I figure that we were 4 points under the spread, and since that is averaged over 9 games, that's a 0.44 difference. So the amount that we go up and the amount they go down would add up to 0.44-ish, but it's probably a little stronger for us because we are a more extreme outlier as a team. So did we drop by about 0.30?
December 5th, 2018 at 12:37 AM ^
If you're a subscriber, there's a fantastic new link this year from the FanMatch page where it links to an archive of the ratings as of the beginning of that day. If you look at today's, you'll see the start-of-the day numbers on the left, then the updated numbers on the right, and finally the deltas.
Michigan is currently down -0.13 since yesterday, but that's misleading because they were up about 0.14 or so prior to the result being posted. They've dropped around 0.27 based on the results of this game alone. So, yes, I'd say your approximation is about valid. However:
1 - You'd need to adjust for pace; this game was a little slower than anticipated, so it wasn't quite a four point spread loss on a point-per-possession basis
2 - KenPom is still mixing in some amount of preseason projections, so instead of representing 1/9 of the available data, it's maybe 1/15 or 1/20 or something (depending on how much preseason data is being weighted).
December 5th, 2018 at 1:13 AM ^
Good point, I had forgotten the impact of preseason projections.
December 4th, 2018 at 11:43 PM ^
Anyone else frustrated by the end of game clock management? I love Bielein and fortunately things worked out for M tonight, but I don’t understand why you don’t go for a two-for-one down the stretch there.
That way if M misses their shot, as they did, and NW actually hits theirs to tie it take the lead, you still have one more chance to win.
December 4th, 2018 at 11:47 PM ^
What was the game clock at when we got our final possession?
December 4th, 2018 at 11:56 PM ^
44 seconds when we got the ball. No reason to rush a bad possession and give NW a chance to foul us later if they need to.
December 5th, 2018 at 3:12 AM ^
however, i was shocked JB didn't call aTO with about 12 sec on the shot clock to set up a play. he is one of the best in the business at that. instead, he let poole run keep running the O and it was a shambles.
December 4th, 2018 at 11:54 PM ^
You don’t go 2 for 1 because you have the lead and don’t want to allow them to extend the game... I’m no basketball mastermind but I don’t know why you would EVER try to give them more time if you’re in the lead...
December 5th, 2018 at 12:02 AM ^
Interesting point and I had to think about it for a second. But I think you still hold the ball as long as possible because scoring at the end of the possession gives you a two possession lead and basically wins you the game. If you miss, you've at least limited the amount of time they have to work with instead of giving them a whole shot clock of time that you have to defend for. I also think it depends on how the other team approaches their last possession. If they have under thirty seconds they may hold for the last shot for the lead or the tie (like they did tonight) or they could try a quick basket knowing we're not a good FT team and they may get another shot off if we brick the front or back end of a 1&1.
December 5th, 2018 at 12:20 AM ^
I think they wanted to just try for a quick basket and foul if needed, but there were two problems with that:
First, because we used all of the clock (much like in OT against Kansas in the Sweet 16 in 2013), it was hard for them to get in position to do that. They used up 3 seconds just getting it to the frontcourt and taking their last timeout.
Second, Teske's hands. The ballhandler was about to drive on Teske with 6-7 seconds left but lost the ball, so there was no longer time after the missed shot.
If we rush it up and miss with ~35 seconds left, NW has time to run a ~15 second possession, then foul if they miss, giving us a one-and-one, which means they'll have a second one possession situation.
If we rush it up and make it, they can run a quick possession and foul on their made basket. There's just too many ways for NW to tie or take the lead if the game gets extended. Maybe we just run our offense if we had gotten the ball with a minute left or more, but not under 45 seconds.
December 5th, 2018 at 12:39 AM ^
They had another problem. Thanks to the "generous" officiating, they only had five fouls.
If they had made a shot, Michigan was pretty unlikely to get a decent shot off, because they would have fouled as soon as the ball was inbounded.
However, if they missed a shot, they would have needed to foul twice in order to have Michigan shoot free throws in the first place. That can eat up a good amount of time.
December 4th, 2018 at 11:43 PM ^
You would think Johns could displace Davis. Davis isn't a great defender and has zero athleticism. We just need Johns to play a little defense, rebound and roll, be there for lobs.
December 4th, 2018 at 11:51 PM ^
Johns is 6’8”... this is not a “like for like” conparison
December 5th, 2018 at 12:02 AM ^
True, but Jordan Morgan was 6'8" and developed into a pretty damn good backup C, especially defensively. It's nice that Davis is taller, but it's not necessary for a college center to be 6'10" or above. If we can get some additional contributions from the bench to back up Matthews, then Livers and Johns can share those backup C duties, and they could both play in a real emergency (like tonight). I have to think that Johns is a better offensive option than Davis already.
December 5th, 2018 at 3:15 AM ^
actually, morgan turned into a pretty damn good starting center. he carried that team thru to the elite 8 against KY. terrible officiating took him out of that game.
December 5th, 2018 at 7:16 AM ^
Yeah, I should have given Morgan more credit. He was the starter for most of the 2012-13 season as well. He sort of disappeared for much of the tournament as McGary emerged but stepped up big on defense late against Kansas, and more memorably against Syracuse.
Anyway, we can't expect Johns to be at that level defensively quite yet, but he should be able to give some decent minutes off the bench at the 5. How many B1G centers are 6'10" or above?
December 4th, 2018 at 11:44 PM ^
Simpson and Matthews are streaky offensively; they'll have their ups and downs. Simpson made some incredible layups in this game; he just fired up too many 3's. Livers sometimes just fades into the background.
Matthews got an early foul and never woke up. I think he's one guy that Coach Beilein might want to keep in the game rather than auto-bench. Seems like he lost his confidence or his focus when we was benched.
We've got enough weapons, combined with our D, that should pull out most games even when a couple guys are off. Tonight it was 3.
Honestly, my biggest fear is that it would come down to free throws. It's probably why Simpson spent more time than expected on the bench at the end.
We won, I'm happy. On to the next one!
December 4th, 2018 at 11:44 PM ^
Question: was Zavier on the bench for the last several minutes simply to get someone in with more outside shooting range (thank you for clutch three, Eli Brooks!), or was Beilein sending a message to Z on shot selection?
Either way, I liked that coach B. subbed Z back in for defense on last NW possession.
December 4th, 2018 at 11:47 PM ^
Maybe had to do with free throw shooting too.
Maybe Coach Beilein didn't want NW playing hack-a-Z.
December 4th, 2018 at 11:48 PM ^
IMO that was a message sent.
December 4th, 2018 at 11:48 PM ^
Both. Dual purpose, positive decision.
December 4th, 2018 at 11:52 PM ^
I think it was the right move, albeit a few possessions late. I think it was less of a message and more of a strategic move to get more outside shooting ability on the floor. Simpson was 0-5 from 3 at that point and Brooks was rested and has been shooting well all year.
December 4th, 2018 at 11:47 PM ^
I thought Iggy was playing with to much emotion and too fast.
Around the 10 minute mark when they were closing the gap he went up to XZ and said something while he was dribbling. XZ in turn gave him the ball on the next two possessions and they were both turnovers because he was sped up and trying to do too much .
Great player, but gotta control the emotions.
December 5th, 2018 at 1:13 AM ^
Was that when he tried to take it into two defenders under the basket? That was part of a sequence he had that was not his best few minutes of basketball. Probably part of what Beilein was referring to when he said Iggy made some mistakes.
December 5th, 2018 at 3:19 AM ^
iggy is the last guy to criticise. give NW some credit for crashing down on him, since the rest of the team was being passive. incredible that iggy as a frosh tried to take control. most would fade into the background.
December 4th, 2018 at 11:55 PM ^
We have just over 5 weeks until we play our next road game. I like that VERY MUCH
December 4th, 2018 at 11:56 PM ^
This is going to be a really fun B1G season. The conference is deep, and we're probably gonna have a bunch of nail-biters.
It's great to start 2-0 in league, and win our first conference road game too.
Onward and upward!
December 4th, 2018 at 11:57 PM ^
Dont overreact to a road big ten game on a Tuesday night.
Especially against a team as well coached and fundamentally sound as Northwestern.
We were up 13 and went cold.